Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[egd27]

Are you suggesting our internal cap structure has no bearings on future contracts?

Don't get him started, he believes that an agent would not attempt to try and get the best deal for his RFA Client by using an internal UFA comparable.

 

[Racer88]

Don't get him started, he believes that an agent would not attempt to try and get the best deal for his RFA Client by using an internal UFA comparable.

Or that an internal cap structure could be the cause of 7 years of playoff failure

 

[Dekes For Days]

Don't get him started, he believes that an agent would not attempt to try and get the best deal for his RFA Client by using an internal UFA comparable.

I'm sure some agents try all sorts of crazy stuff. Trying stuff is very different from succeeding at it having any meaningful impact in negotiations.

 

[egd27]

I'm sure some agents try all sorts of crazy stuff. Trying stuff is very different from succeeding at it having any meaningful impact in negotiations.

I see you're still attempting to claim you are privy to not only what goes on in NHL contract negotiations, but what succeeds and fails. Too funny.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I see you're still attempting to claim you are privy to not only what goes on in NHL contract negotiations, but what succeeds and fails. Too funny.

This is all public, widely-known, common sense stuff, not some big secret revelation. The fact that the contracts don't even align with each other should have been the first red flag for this random theory though.

 

[egd27]

This is all public, widely-known, common sense stuff, not some big secret revelation. The fact that the contracts don't even align with each other should have been the first red flag for this random theory though.

Common sense says it's quite likely that things went down something like

1. Dubas pays JT $11m
2. Nylander holds out until the last min which puts a bit of a scare into the rookie GM
3. 34's agent tells KD that Matthews is the the main man on the Leafs and will be paid more than JT or Dubas can deal with another holdout
4. 16's agent tells KD he had more points than JT and thus should be paid in the same ballpark as a top C or he too will hold out

Now unlike you, I don't claim to know what actually went down in the negotiations, but seems like a pretty simple and believable scenario.

 

[Arzak]

Don't get him started, he believes that an agent would not attempt to try and get the best deal for his RFA Client by using an internal UFA comparable.

Or that an internal cap structure could be the cause of 7 years of playoff failure

Imagine being Matthews's agent. Your task, not to mention that #34 is twice the C JT is. JT getting 11M as 2C.

Go !

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

$11M for a 2nd line center, even an elite one, is ridiculous in a cap world & just underscores what a terrible idea it was to sign him.

I do believe the mindset was that with such a young group he'd come in and be a veteran leader, but again, way, way too much money for a 2C especially considering Matthews was already pegged for the 1C role and that would heavily influence his post-ELC contract and they already had Kadri who was good enough to be a 2C. So it's not hard to argue that C (and RW with Willie & Mitch) were the two positions they had depth at while the blueline was in need of a major upgrade.

Throwing $11M at a UFA in Toronto's situation at the time could have worked, but I had to be an elite defender, or two very good ones (kidding). Maybe one and a goalie. But a 2C? Well, we've seen the fallout of that decision ever since.

See that's the thing....Dubas thought if you have a strong area of the team...make it even stronger to dominate the other teams that don't have strength to battle you. The only problem is it can be redundant and backfire. Look at Karlsson going to the Pens...they had Letang already (offensive but bad defensively) and Dubas doubled down again on the idea. How did that work out for Karlsson? He ain't getting 100pts this year because Letang is taking up some of the ice time.

JT was a mistake and no matter how someone spins it...it always will be a mistake.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

You're denying what's obvious because of a lack of explicit proof of a hypothetical. Tavares didn't allow every GM to bid on him. However, every one that did was reported to have bid in the range of 11m-13m, not 9m. This includes Lou offering 8 years of 11m, and then later 11.25m, with speculation about a 12m offer. Obviously, your claimed valuation of 9m cannot be justified. I said every GM would have signed Tavares for 9m, because I can't think of any time in history that a GM was offered such a massive discount on an impact player and turned it down. Need or not, teams would almost certainly find a way to make it work.

That can't be true because one of the stipulations in his interviewing teams was NO talk of money. He wanted to be sold on the franchise and not the money. I have to tip my hat to Dubas for the sell job...but this talk of 13M can't be anything other than speculation due to the circumstances of JT's UFA tour. Even Dubas didn't talk money with him and they settled on $11M AFTER he told them he was coming to the Leafs pyjamas in hand. There is a sportsnet article talking about how quick the negotiation was after he chose the Leafs.

So how could he have been offered 2M more when they weren't able to make the offer in the first place?

 

[Gabriel426]

Common sense says it's quite likely that things went down something like

1. Dubas pays JT $11m
2. Nylander holds out until the last min which puts a bit of a scare into the rookie GM
3. 34's agent tells KD that Matthews is the the main man on the Leafs and will be paid more than JT or Dubas can deal with another holdout
4. 16's agent tells KD he had more points than JT and thus should be paid in the same ballpark as a top C or he too will hold out

Now unlike you, I don't claim to know what actually went down in the negotiations, but seems like a pretty simple and believable scenario.

Not defending Dubas but everyone know AM will be getting somewhere between Eichel 10.5mil to McD 12.5mil. Just surprised it was not a 8 yrs deal.

 

[egd27]

Not defending Dubas but everyone know AM will be getting somewhere between Eichel 10.5mil to McD 12.5mil. Just surprised it was not a 8 yrs deal.

Sure, also part of the negotiations, but to claim JT's salary didn't play any part is pretty naive IMO

 

[notDatsyuk]

Thankfully, I could care less if you take me seriously or otherwise... like, who the f--- are you to me really lol

A government mandating lockdown, for a virus that they also claim was slightly less dangerous than the common flu virus seems kinda tyrannical, insane and in direct opposition to my sovereign human right to live but obviously you disagree and that totally shows me the type of person you are ; )

Sorry that I believe in free thought and questioning those who have lied to me in the past... what a dummy I am for sure right? @Jamason

I make the juice, you take the juice and I really don't mind

Cheers, best of luck in your life

"I could care less" means you actually do care, although I suspect that isn't what you meant.

I'm just someone who doesn't feel the need to use profanity to support their point, and am perfectly capable of deciding things based on logic.

You are certainly spouting a lot of other people's catch phrases.

And my life is excellent, thanks.

 

[MK78]

What's the point of arguing it. We all knew the last 2 years would be painful. It's sad that the team didn't manage to get it done before, ESPECIALLY that god damn canadian division year. that was a layup to the conf finals.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, I mean when Lou was with the Islanders and reportedly offered 11m x 8 and then 11.25m x 8 and potentially even 12m x 8 in a desperate attempt to avoid starting off his tenure by losing a massive piece of their team, but did not pull it off, despite his original Islanders team remaining a top option to the very end.

You spend the money you have, in the same way everybody does, and then hope that the cap won't act in a unique, completely opposite of expected way that wasn't built into the complarables and common structure that the contracts are built from.

You do come up with some of the strangest interpretations of events.

Never change, dekes - you're just too amusing.

 

[WillyC]

I think it was a coincidence that Matthews looking at 11 million to squeeze in between Jack and Connor… aligned with the most desired UFA to come along in years.

The UFA money dropped from 13 million to 11 million because Tavares personally lowered it to come home.

In 2018, John Tavares was going to set the UFA benchmark in salary… EK quickly followed suit.

Auston or Mitch were never in a position to ask for more than UFA Tavares or EK money.

All teams and GMs work like that… however, for some reason, Dubas gave M&M money that was on the UFA level.

M&M should have been given 10.5 and 9.5.

Tavares is worth about $7.5 million right now… however, in the real world… you can’t just go out and get another John Tavares for $7-8 million.

 

[meefer]

I think it was a coincidence that Matthews looking at 11 million to squeeze in between Jack and Connor… aligned with the most desired UFA to come along in years.

The UFA money dropped from 13 million to 11 million because Tavares personally lowered it to come home.

In 2018, John Tavares was going to set the UFA benchmark in salary… EK quickly followed suit.

Auston or Mitch were never in a position to ask for more than UFA Tavares or EK money.

All teams and GMs work like that… however, for some reason, Dubas gave M&M money that was on the UFA level.

M&M should have been given 10.5 and 9.5.

Tavares is worth about $7.5 million right now… however, in the real world… you can’t just go out and get another John Tavares for $7-8 million.

"M&M should have been given 10.5 and 9.5."

Had this occurred, along with no Covid and the stagnant cap...I'd have been a happier person not having to read about contracts for those 5 years, such a happier person.

 

[hamzarocks]

I think it was a coincidence that Matthews looking at 11 million to squeeze in between Jack and Connor… aligned with the most desired UFA to come along in years.

The UFA money dropped from 13 million to 11 million because Tavares personally lowered it to come home.

In 2018, John Tavares was going to set the UFA benchmark in salary… EK quickly followed suit.

Auston or Mitch were never in a position to ask for more than UFA Tavares or EK money.

All teams and GMs work like that… however, for some reason, Dubas gave M&M money that was on the UFA level.

M&M should have been given 10.5 and 9.5.

Tavares is worth about $7.5 million right now… however, in the real world… you can’t just go out and get another John Tavares for $7-8 million.

Tavares isnt worth 7.5M his 2023-2024 season as a whole is around maybe 6M in value

He was worth 7.5M last year and 8M the year before

He is a grinder who doesnt produce much now

He has also been a poor playoff performer his whole career with the leafs and we will see if his decline carries onto their as well

Leafs would be a better team without Tavares next year. Unfortunately have the cap anchor one more year

 

[WillyC]

Tavares isnt worth 7.5M his 2023-2024 season as a whole is around maybe 6M in value

He was worth 7.5M last year and 8M the year before

He is a grinder who doesnt produce much now

He has also been a poor playoff performer his whole career with the leafs and we will see if his decline carries onto their as well

Leafs would be a better team without Tavares next year. Unfortunately have the cap anchor one more year

when it comes to playoffs… I keep thinking about those 2 goals he scored within a minute to put us up 3-2… then the tying goal in game 7 that was called back… then the overtime winner to get us past the first round for the first time in 20 years.

I don’t really think or care about him scoring the first Toronto playoff hat trick since 2004 in a 7-2 romp.

I hope he does that stuff again this coming playoffs… if just so his cap guru haters can relish in it.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

when it comes to playoffs… I keep thinking about those 2 goals he scored within a minute to put us up 3-2… then the tying goal in game 7 that was called back… then the overtime winner to get us past the first round for the first time in 20 years.

I don’t really think or care about him scoring the first Toronto playoff hat trick since 2004 in a 7-2 romp.

I hope he does that stuff again this coming playoffs… if just so his cap guru haters can relish in it.

He scored in 2/11 games last playoffs. He has a lower PPG than Rielly during his Leaf tenure. His series winning goal was a shot going wide deflecting off a skate. But ya he’s a f***ing hero for coming home for 11M. Only a bit over a year left of this trash.

 

[hamzarocks]

when it comes to playoffs… I keep thinking about those 2 goals he scored within a minute to put us up 3-2… then the tying goal in game 7 that was called back… then the overtime winner to get us past the first round for the first time in 20 years.

I don’t really think or care about him scoring the first Toronto playoff hat trick since 2004 in a 7-2 romp.

I hope he does that stuff again this coming playoffs… if just so his cap guru haters can relish in it.

I think about his 58 pts in 82 game pace

22 pts in 31 games as a leaf

He has failed to perform in 4 of the 5 series he has played for us

 

[Budz]

I fully understand some of the traits that JT doesn’t bring to the table anymore. One thing that our fanbase is short sighted about is the difference between regular season and playoff hockey.

I think JT plays a slower type game, but he will be more ( not less) effective in the playoffs.

Needs to play with grinders and heavier cycle players.

This is what I would do to start vs. Boston. I know it will get trashed:

Nylander Matthews Marner
Knies JT McMann
Bertuzzi Domi Jarnkrok
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

Rielly Bush
Benoit McCabe
Brodie Edmundson

Sammy
Woll

 

[notDatsyuk]

I fully understand some of the traits that JT doesn’t bring to the table anymore. One thing that our fanbase is short sighted about is the difference between regular season and playoff hockey.

I think JT plays a slower type game, but he will be more ( not less) effective in the playoffs.

Needs to play with grinders and heavier cycle players.

This is what I would do to start vs. Boston. I know it will get trashed:

Nylander Matthews Marner
Knies JT McMann
Bertuzzi Domi Jarnkrok
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

Rielly Bush
Benoit McCabe
Brodie Edmundson

Sammy
Woll

As has been pointed out several times, no, he is not more effective in the playoffs. Compared to the regular season:

Tavares: 27% fewer points per game in the playoffs
Marner: 24% fewer points per game
Matthews: 18% fewer points per game
Nylander: 2% fewer points per game

 

[Dekes For Days]

Common sense says it's quite likely that things went down something like

1. Dubas pays JT $11m
2. Nylander holds out until the last min which puts a bit of a scare into the rookie GM
3. 34's agent tells KD that Matthews is the the main man on the Leafs and will be paid more than JT or Dubas can deal with another holdout
4. 16's agent tells KD he had more points than JT and thus should be paid in the same ballpark as a top C or he too will hold out

Now unlike you, I don't claim to know what actually went down in the negotiations, but seems like a pretty simple and believable scenario.

These are just narratives you've pulled out of thin air, and it's actually very unbelievable. The most likely scenario is:

1. Tavares, as one of the top UFAs to hit the market in the cap era, is coveted in the range of 11m-13m. He chooses Toronto, and decides to take the low end of that.
2. Nylander, as a very good young player not wanting to get left behind by Matthews and Marner, tries to hold out for full value on his contract. Eventually fails when Dubas calls his bluff, but the holdout is shown to be an undesirable scenario for both player and team.
3. Matthews, as one of the best young players in the history of the cap era, signs a fair, no-hassle contract consistent with post-ELC history.
4. Marner, as one of the best young players in the history of the cap era, considers holding out for full value after the team was petty in the first negotiations, the coach was abusive, and offer sheets have reinforced his self-valuation, but wants to stay in Toronto and doesn't want to end up in the situation Nylander was in, so compromises before the season starts for a contract consistent with post-ELC history.

And then, of course, we have step 5.

5. Some fans, refusing to learn how contracts work or accept anything but a significant underpayment, create a convoluted conspiracy theory out of nothing, trying to link everything to the unrelated Tavares contract.

The funny thing is, even under your scenario, Tavares is irrelevant. You've set up this scenario where they can essentially just ask for whatever they want for whatever reason and get it, no matter how ridiculous it is. If not Tavares, they could just point to somebody else. Heck, under your premise, they could point to Tavares in San Jose making 13m and ask for even more than they got, so by your logic, Tavares signing here saved us money.

So how could he have been offered 2M more when they weren't able to make the offer in the first place?

The negotiation period wasn't supposed to involve actual offers, but they always did. It was the worst kept secret in the NHL. Heck, even after getting rid of the negotiation period, people still sign at 12:00:01 of free agency. We knew the exact team, dollars, and term that Campbell was getting like a whole week before free agency.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

These are just narratives you've pulled out of thin air, and it's actually very unbelievable. The most likely scenario is:

1. Tavares, as one of the top UFAs to hit the market in the cap era, is coveted in the range of 11m-13m. He chooses Toronto, and decides to take the low end of that.
2. Nylander, as a very good young player not wanting to get left behind by Matthews and Marner, tries to hold out for full value on his contract. Eventually fails when Dubas calls his bluff, but the holdout is shown to be an undesirable scenario for both player and team.
3. Matthews, as one of the best young players in the history of the cap era, signs a fair, no-hassle contract consistent with post-ELC history.
4. Marner, as one of the best young players in the history of the cap era, considers holding out for full value after the team was petty in the first negotiations, the coach was abusive, and offer sheets have reinforced his self-valuation, but wants to stay in Toronto and doesn't want to end up in the situation Nylander was in, so compromises before the season starts for a contract consistent with post-ELC history.

And then, of course, we have step 5.

5. Some fans, refusing to learn how contracts work or accept anything but a significant underpayment, create a convoluted conspiracy theory out of nothing, trying to link everything to the unrelated Tavares contract.

The funny thing is, even under your scenario, Tavares is irrelevant. You've set up this scenario where they can essentially just ask for whatever they want for whatever reason and get it, no matter how ridiculous it is. If not Tavares, they could just point to somebody else. Heck, under your premise, they could point to Tavares in San Jose making 13m and ask for even more than they got, so by your logic, Tavares signing here saved us money.

The negotiation period wasn't supposed to involve actual offers, but they always did. It was the worst kept secret in the NHL. Heck, even after getting rid of the negotiation period, people still sign at 12:00:01 of free agency. We knew the exact team, dollars, and term that Campbell was getting like a whole week before free agency.

So now you are privy to information that is not public?...JT insisted he didn't want to talk dollars and cents during his negotiations, yet you still say he somehow did with teams that offered him more than the Leafs did....lovely.

I already posted the link a while ago and you dismissed the article because it didn't fit your narrative that we got JT at a discount of up to $2M.

 

[egd27]

And then, of course, we have step 5.

5. Some fans, refusing to learn how contracts work or accept anything but a significant underpayment, create a convoluted conspiracy theory out of nothing, trying to link everything to the unrelated Tavares contract.

The funny thing is, even under your scenario, Tavares is irrelevant. You've set up this scenario where they can essentially just ask for whatever they want for whatever reason and get it, no matter how ridiculous it is. If not Tavares, they could just point to somebody else. Heck, under your premise, they could point to Tavares in San Jose making 13m and ask for even more than they got, so by your logic, Tavares signing here saved us money.

First off, you found that convoluted? Sorry, I thought by just listing the 4 points step by step it would be pretty easy to follow.

Secondly, if they pointed to Tavares in San Jose, then there wouldn't be an internal salary comparison to be made which was the point of the premise.