Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[Dekes For Days]

That extra 4m would have turned into more like 10m or more when the kids contracts came up.

No it wouldn't, because Tavares had zero impact on the contracts of the kids.
Of course, the idea that UFA Tavares would sign for 7m is a ridiculous fantasy in the first place.

 

[Arzak]

No it wouldn't, because Tavares had zero impact on the contracts of the kids.
Of course, the idea that UFA Tavares would sign for 7m is a ridiculous fantasy in the first place.

Are you suggesting our internal cap structure has no bearings on future contracts?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you suggesting our internal cap structure has no bearings on future contracts?

I'm reminding you that UFA contracts have nothing to do with post-ELC contracts. They are not valid comparables for each other. Tavares' contract had zero impact on the contracts our kids got. The kids got the contracts they did because of their performance relative to the performance of past post-ELC signees. That's who their comparables are, and that's who their contracts align with, not Tavares.

There was never an option to sign Tavares for 7m, and there was never an option to sign the core RFAs to 6m less, or any less.

 

[banks]

He's not overpaid enough to warrant the massive amount of complaining over the last 3-4 years.

This is the first year where he isn't playing up to the contract. And even this year it isn't too serious.

 

[notDatsyuk]

He's not overpaid enough to warrant the massive amount of complaining over the last 3-4 years.

This is the first year where he isn't playing up to the contract. And even this year it isn't too serious.

Paying a 2C $11M was serious 4-5 years ago. Paying a 3C that is ridiculous.

 

[banks]

Paying a 2C $11M was serious 4-5 years ago. Paying a 3C that is ridiculous.

I mean, was Malkin a career #2C? Was Tavares really just a 2nd liner when he arrived here? I don't think so.

Slot allocation and a top heavy cap structure are discussions worth having. But that doesn't mean Tavares was overpaid on day 1. He wasn't.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Paying a 2C $11M was serious 4-5 years ago. Paying a 3C that is ridiculous.

They paid a 1C six years ago. Now, near the end of his contract, he's producing like a 2C, while still maintaining many of the underlying metrics of a 1C.

 

[thewave]

I'm reminding you that UFA contracts have nothing to do with post-ELC contracts. They are not valid comparables for each other. Tavares' contract had zero impact on the contracts our kids got. The kids got the contracts they did because of their performance relative to the performance of past post-ELC signees. That's who their comparables are, and that's who their contracts align with, not Tavares.

There was never an option to sign Tavares for 7m, and there was never an option to sign the core RFAs to 6m less, or any less.

Anyone that paid him over 9m at the time was stupid. Imagine my shock, Dubas was stupid and had no success here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Anyone that paid him over 9m at the time was stupid.

Every single GM in the league would have paid him more than 9m. Most would have paid him more than 11m. Your expected valuations are way off.

 

[thewave]

Every single GM in the league would have paid him more than 9m. Most would have paid him more than 11m. Your expected valuations are way off.

Prove it to me. Prove to me and the other forum goers that every single GM would have. That's a bold statement and false at that and you know it.

 

[Clark4Ever]

At this point, he's a 5-6 million dollar player. It is what it is.

Move him to LW on the top line and put him back on the first PP to try to get the most out of him for the duration of his contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Prove it to me. Prove to me and the other forum goers that every single GM would have.

Prove to me they wouldn't. You're the one building your entire premise on the idea that we did something unusual that nobody else would do, even though every reported offer (from the teams Tavares even let bid) was at least 11m, and up to 13m per year. One would have to think the bare minimum for being a GM in this league is understanding that adding a Tavares to your team for no assets in UFA is worth a heck of a lot more than 9m in cap space.

 

[notDatsyuk]

They paid a 1C six years ago. Now, near the end of his contract, he's producing like a 2C, while still maintaining many of the underlying metrics of a 1C.

Do you really believe that?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Do you really believe that?

If you include metrics like "He can skate and shows up to the rink on time" then, yes...he does.

 

[thewave]

Prove to me they wouldn't. You're the one building your entire premise on the idea that we did something unusual that nobody else would do, even though every reported offer (from the teams Tavares even let bid) was at least 11m, and up to 13m per year. One would have to think the bare minimum for being a GM in this league is understanding that adding a Tavares to your team for no assets in UFA is worth a heck of a lot more than 9m in cap space.

I don't need to prove anything. You introduced that nonsense here to make a point. For all I know 75% of the league GMs wanted to build without introducing a drastic overpay to the roster. Do you think TB would have paid JT 13m?

It makes no sense. Lou probably said bad idea. Dubas went for it. Dubas was dumb and Lou was smart considering the team he took on went further than the Leafs. We have 1 round win with JT as Captain.

Pretty simple stuff

 

[Arzak]

If you include metrics like "He can skate and shows up to the rink on time" then, yes...he does.

It's definition in a circle, the underlying 1C metric probably being ice time, pp time and cap hit. ROFL

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you include metrics like "He can skate and shows up to the rink on time" then, yes...he does.

More things like individual shots, individual scoring chances, individual high danger chances, individual expected goals, rebounds individually generated, faceoffs, his on-ice results through multiple varied situations, his microstats in offense/defense/transition, etc. You know, actual underlying metrics.

I don't need to prove anything.

To justify your valuation, you would.

Lou probably said bad idea.

Lou literally tried to sign him for even more money than us.

 

[Arzak]

I don't need to prove anything. You introduced that nonsense here to make a point. For all I know 75% of the league GMs wanted to build without introducing a drastic overpay to the roster. Do you think TB would have paid JT 13m?

It makes no sense. Lou probably said bad idea. Dubas went for it. Dubas was dumb and Lou was smart considering the team he took on went further than the Leafs. We have 1 round win with JT as Captain.

Pretty simple stuff

There are teams which we knew tried to sign- like Boston, without legit 1C or even 2C now. It would make sense for Boston or any team without Kadri and Matthews to try and sign him.

Btw it also stripped Matthews of C possibility and any responsibility for this team future. Not that we care about these little things

The idea that everyone, regardless of their cap and center situation tried to get him is stupid. Was he going to play 3C in Pittsburgh?

Good luck proving it to internal cap denier!

 

[thewave]

More things like individual shots, individual scoring chances, individual high danger chances, individual expected goals, rebounds generated, faceoffs, his on-ice results in multiple different situations, his microstats, etc. You know, actual underlying metrics.

To justify your valuation, you would.

Lou literally tried to sign him for even more money.

Firstly you justify your claim. Thats not how it works. You said every single GM would have signed JT

Provide links to Lou offering more money that wasn't speculative.

 

[kevsh]

and they definitely thought he'd still be a high quality 2nd line center throughout the entirety of his 7 year contract..

$11M for a 2nd line center, even an elite one, is ridiculous in a cap world & just underscores what a terrible idea it was to sign him.

I do believe the mindset was that with such a young group he'd come in and be a veteran leader, but again, way, way too much money for a 2C especially considering Matthews was already pegged for the 1C role and that would heavily influence his post-ELC contract and they already had Kadri who was good enough to be a 2C. So it's not hard to argue that C (and RW with Willie & Mitch) were the two positions they had depth at while the blueline was in need of a major upgrade.

Throwing $11M at a UFA in Toronto's situation at the time could have worked, but I had to be an elite defender, or two very good ones (kidding). Maybe one and a goalie. But a 2C? Well, we've seen the fallout of that decision ever since.

 

[thewave]

$11M for a 2nd line center, even an elite one, is ridiculous in a cap world & just underscores what a terrible idea it was to sign him.

I do believe the mindset was that with such a young group he'd come in and be a veteran leader, but again, way, way too much money for a 2C especially considering Matthews was already pegged for the 1C role and that would heavily influence his post-ELC contract and they already had Kadri who was good enough to be a 2C. So it's not hard to argue that C (and RW with Willie & Mitch) were the two positions they had depth at while the blueline was in need of a major upgrade.

Throwing $11M at a UFA in Toronto's situation at the time could have worked, but I had to be an elite defender, or two very good ones (kidding). Maybe one and a goalie. But a 2C? Well, we've seen the fallout of that decision ever since.

Right.

No team success in the PO. Thats the fallout and drastic overpays.

 

[Arzak]

$11M for a 2nd line center, even an elite one, is ridiculous in a cap world & just underscores what a terrible idea it was to sign him.

I do believe the mindset was that with such a young group he'd come in and be a veteran leader, but again, way, way too much money for a 2C especially considering Matthews was already pegged for the 1C role and that would heavily influence his post-ELC contract and they already had Kadri who was good enough to be a 2C. So it's not hard to argue that C (and RW with Willie & Mitch) were the two positions they had depth at while the blueline was in need of a major upgrade.

Throwing $11M at a UFA in Toronto's situation at the time could have worked, but I had to be an elite defender, or two very good ones (kidding). Maybe one and a goalie. But a 2C? Well, we've seen the fallout of that decision ever since.

True story, switch JT with McAvoy playing 1D 30 min a game and our goalies don't look half as bad.

 

[Matthews4Calder]

The Tavares signing in my opinion isn't what has gotten the team in this mess cap wise. It was Dubas caving in to the rest of the core. They all got what they wanted and in my opinion overpaid. Tavares put in his years and that's how it works you eventually get paid. Rest of them didn't accomplish anything other than regular season points. Happened again with Nylander with his contract that kicks in next year. Team has been in a pickle trying to fill in and round out the rest of the lineup because of it. We haven't had a legit #1 D or goaltender because they've been trying to fill out the roster with what little cap space they have. Reilly is the only one who signed for a reasonable amount. Next year Marner will soak us for another couple million. Either the core needs to be dissected or wait until JT's contract is done and go from there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Firstly you justify your claim. Thats not how it works. You said every single GM would have signed JT
Provide links to Lou offering more money that wasn't speculative.

You're denying what's obvious because of a lack of explicit proof of a hypothetical. Tavares didn't allow every GM to bid on him. However, every one that did was reported to have bid in the range of 11m-13m, not 9m. This includes Lou offering 8 years of 11m, and then later 11.25m, with speculation about a 12m offer. Obviously, your claimed valuation of 9m cannot be justified. I said every GM would have signed Tavares for 9m, because I can't think of any time in history that a GM was offered such a massive discount on an impact player and turned it down. Need or not, teams would almost certainly find a way to make it work.

 

[Racer88]

There wasn't even any excuse for anything. Do you just see the word covid and start yelling "EXCUSE!" at it?
It's a fact that it existed and changed the current cap ceiling, and thus it's relevant to a metric that is relative to the current cap ceiling.

Of course not but Dubas was the only guy to lock 4 similar forwards to 50% of the cap. The Tavares contract and Dubas’s unwillingness to do anything to correct such a misstep is the real problem.
He was to stubborn with his famous quote that we can and we will.
We can’t pretend that the flat cap caused these issues. If the cap would have been going up like normal they would have just demanded a higher percentage being as you alway like to tell us that contracts are all about percentage and not dollar value. The real problem is and always will be a poor build model and so far their unwillingness to do what ever it takes to win and I’m speaking from management on down right to the core

Are you suggesting our internal cap structure has no bearings on future contracts?

Sounds like it but that’s crazy