How much value do you put into these later Ovechkin seasons?

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tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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I'm not sure the word "generating" is quite appropriate here, when the game plan is usually for other players to do the hard work of generating scoring chances which he then reaps. Especially on the power play, on which he currently has the fourth-highest TOI per game in the league. (Not to mention, any stats that are based on "all situations" are going to skew heavily in favor of players who get the most PP time.)

I don't know where these stats are sourced from, or I'd check myself, but I'd be curious to see if Washington actually gets the most scoring chances when he's on the ice, or if they just get a normal amount and he gets an inordinate share of them. Don't get me wrong, it says a lot that the team thinks he's their best bet to score and that they play accordingly, but scoring chances are generated by a team, not typically by a single player, and typically not by this particular single player.

I've seen many Ovy highlights this year, as well as two full games. Dismissing him as "just a finisher" is too simplistic; he's still a great player, excellent, actually. He has surprised me on a few occasions already. But at the same time, if you think he generates chances like a Marchand, Wheeler, Gaudreau, Kane, or, I hate to say it, like a Crosby, you may not be watching objectively.

To the extent that he can be criticized for carrying his team offensively in this manner, it seems at least a little pertinent that he's doing it in the context of being by far the highest goal scorer on the highest goal scoring team in the league, and by far the biggest PP threat on one of the top PPs in the league.
 

quoipourquoi

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Jan 26, 2009
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Ah, and now the true motivations are revealed.

Yes, I’ve been playing a long con for 10 years and my true motivation was to talk about Sidney Crosby. I didn’t just mention him because his 144 goals and 219 assists are pretty much in-line with 2016-2019’s leading scorers Kane (151-230) and Kucherov (150-229) and that he’s won a goal scoring title in this time frame at the cost of his assist totals - something Kane could have done in 2016 or Kucherov in 2019.

All of those times I talked about how Crosby’s Conn Smythe trophies were among the weakest - that was all just a red herring (like Communism).


Feel free to talk about hockey, but do us a favor and stop peddling your conspiracy theories about Hockey Outsider, JackSlater, and me as if this is this is our first appearance on this board.
 

steve141

Registered User
Aug 13, 2009
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To the extent that he can be criticized for carrying his team offensively in this manner, it seems at least a little pertinent that he's doing it in the context of being by far the highest goal scorer on the highest goal scoring team in the league, and by far the biggest PP threat on one of the top PPs in the league.

Yeah, this thread makes it seem like he's just coasting along on the third line and slapping in PP goals like he was Brett Hull on the Red Wings.

Ovechkin is currently 3rd in goals and 7th in points out of all players. He's the best player on the team that is currently at the top of the standings. He's still one of the top players in the league.
 

Zuluss

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May 19, 2011
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And Kucherov hadn’t even broken out yet in 2016 and 2017. In the last two seasons, it’s more like trading ~8 goals for, what, 40 assists?

In both of the last two seasons, Kucherov, who has already "broken out", was 10 goals behind Ovechkin. I am very skeptical of his ability to close this gap by "sacrificing assists" and calling Kucherov "a better goal-scorer" than Ovechkin based on some imaginary goals he could have scored (or not) seems to me a complete abandoning of reality.

Ovechkin has a unique shot, he can score from the top of the circle even if the goalie is not screened. If other guys start taking those shots instead of looking for a pass, it is not going to get them anywhere - which is the reason why they do not. That applies even to Kucherov, who does have a good shot, not to mention Marchand and Gaudreau, who cannot mimic Ovechkin even if their life depended on it.

Ovechkin also has a unique ability to adjust his body to take a shot. His "in the wheelhouse" zone is extremely big. A pass goes across the ice, and the puck is rolling and wobbling, and it is going two feet behind Ovechkin's skates - he somehow twists his body, shoots while falling and it is still a hard and dangerous shot. Pretty much everyone would stop the puck without taking a shot and then would look for a pass - because anyone else's shot in this situation would be a disaster.

That's why Ovechkin led the league in shots 11 times already. If anyone else takes Ovechkin's spot in the circle and starts firing shots every time the puck comes to him, this is not going to yield Ovechkin's goal totals, this is going to yield tons of missed shots or weak throws towards the net.

This is not to say that Kucherov is a worse player or contributes less offensively than Ovechkin. I am just saying Kucherov is different. Players have unique traits, they are not video game characters of "100-point player" type, for which you move the bar and select a desired combination of goals/assists. Especially unique are rare abilities like scoring 50 goals per season or collecting 80 assists per season - being an ordinary player with 1:1.5 goals:assists ratio does not require a special skill set, but being a perennial leader in goals does.

Notice how Crosby - the other Rocket Richard winner of the past 4 seasons - had his worst assists-per-game number of his career thus far in 2017 when he won the Rocket Richard? He moved the change.

To me, Crosby's 16/17 example is an example of quite the opposite: by the eye-test, 16/17 was one of his best seasons, he also had shooter's luck on his side and posted career-high shooting %. And yet he scored 44 goals, +8 from the season before that, and definitely did not get into Ovechkin's territory. So when you say right after that

The difference between current Ovechkin and Kane and Kucherov and Crosby and all of these other great goal scorers who are massively outpointing Ovechkin isn’t a difference in goal-scoring ability but a difference in preference of pockets.

I am not sure where this is coming from. Crosby's 16/17 is the best proof one can have that even if Crosby turns inside out, he is not reaching healthy Ovechkin's goal totals. Same goes for Kucherov and the current version of Kane. They just do not have the goal-scoring skill of Ovechkin - just like they do not have the shot to break Chara's "hardest shot" record or the speed to catch McDavid. They can be great players regardless, they can be better than Ovechkin in some seasons despite scoring less goals, but just like they cannot have McDavid's speed no matter what they sacrifice in other areas, they cannot have Ovechkin's goal-scoring prowess.

You say that like someone who either forgot or never knew that Joe Thornton used to be a pretty good goal scorer in the DPE before skewing heavily towards playmaking. He’s basically the poster child for how goal to assist ratios are as much about choice as anything.

Jumbo Joe was such a great goal-scorer that he got over 30-goal mark twice in his career - in early 20s, which are peak goal-scoring years for almost everyone, his career high was 37 goals (16th in the league). That does not look like a great goal-scorer at all.

On the other hand, he had 29 goals in two of his seasons when he led the league in assists. He sacrificed nothing, he just developed his playmaking skill. Playmakers usually peak later than goal-scorers, they have to figure things out. Thornton did, and his assists went through the roof - but not because he gave up on trying to be a goal-scorer. He was still taking the shots he potentially could score from, and scored the goals he could score - those declined a bit in his late 20s compared to his early 20s, because nearly everyone's goal-scoring ability declines slowly after 22-24. But his passing game improved significantly - including those passes he had to make because he could not score in the situations Kovalchuk or Ovechkin or Selanne would score in.
 
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authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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Other players can score more and assist less like I just posted in another thread about Crosby and Malkin, but in no way could they have kept pace with Ovechkin in goals throughout their careers and even if they tried they would sacrifice assists to do so. It's pretty clear statistically and visually that Ovechkin is on a level of his own as a goal scorer in this era.
 
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Zuluss

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May 19, 2011
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Why would someone put Stamkos on a Hart ballot when he’s on a team with Kucherov? Or an All-Star ballot when McDavid, MacKinnon, and Crosby exist?

Two great players from one team were on Hart ballots in many, many seasons. Malkin/Crosby, Trottier/Bossy, Orr/Esposito. There is no rule saying "you shall not put two names from the same team on your ballot". One can put them 1-2 even. One can put them 1-4, if one player is clearly better, but the other is also deserving.

They do take some votes from each other due to some voters taking the definition of the award literally, but it is hard to think of a case when someone who is a legit top5 or even top10 player in the league got no Hart votes at all because someone on his team was better.

In All-star voting, being on the same team does not matter, and neither Crosby in 17/18 nor MacKinnon 18/19 look unbeatable. If Stamkos was indeed a top5-to10 player in the league like Ovechkin, some voters would go out on a limb and put him 3rd on their All-star team ballot - and 17 of them did in 18/19, but not in 17/18, when they would rather vote for Giroux and struggling Crosby than Stamkos.

Saying something like “judging from his position relative to MacKinnon” in the context of 2018 and 2019 voting makes me fear that you’re going to tell me that 2018 and 2019 Ovechkin is better than MacKinnon in 2018 and 2019 too.

In 18/19, Stamkos and MacK were far apart in Hart voting. If that was because of Kucherov taking Stamkos' Hart votes, in All-star voting Stamkos and MacK would be much closer. But they are not, there is still a big distance.
Ovechkin, on the other hand, was close to MacK in Hart voting last season (though still behind him). I think this is fair; I think there was roughly the same distance between MacK and Stamkos vs. OV and Stamkos last season.

More than that, Ovechkin getting higher finishes in All-Star votes was part of my argument about how his seasons are getting a little overrated because of his goal-scoring placement. You literally quoted where I talked about three LWs who outscored Ovechkin by 10-16 points each last year.

OK, so dozens of voters are wrong, and you are right.
I think it is more productive to understand how the world works than to write off anything you do not understand as "voters overrate this guy and underrate that guy".

So let's try to understand what voters were thinking last year when they gave Ovechkin a place on the 1st All-star team. We have

Ovechkin 51-38-89
Marchand 36-64-100
Gaudreau 36-63-99
Draisatl 50-55-105

Marchand played on the best line in the whole league and scored 15 goals less. My rule of thumb (which a lot of people follow) is to give the better goal-scorer half of the goal differential as "premium points" - so when compared to 36-goal players Ovechkin should be treated as a 89+15/2=96 point player. Which makes the difference between him and Marchand 4 points rather than 11, and bringing linemates into consideration can put Ovechkin ahead - as it in fact did for some, though definitely not all voters.

Gaudreau's offensive output is not that different from Ovechkin's, and his linemates are not better - so he had more votes in Hart voting, but in All-star voting the voters either decided to go the other way to recognize that the two guys are close or gave Ovechkin extra points for being a much bigger physical presence.

Draisatl was both a lucky shooter last season (his shooting % was 21.3% last season compared to 12.9%, 16.9%, and 14.3% in the three seasons before that) and half of his goals were assisted by McDavid. So voters probably did not put much stock into his numbers just as they usually do not put much stock in the numbers of Backstrom, Carlson and Kuznetsov.

In terms of goals last year, we’re looking at Ovechkin with 47 behind a goalie and 4 into an empty net and Stamkos with 44 and 1. Explain to me again how me taking Stamkos’ 15 extra assists into consideration is a problem when saying that current Ovechkin is closer to current Stamkos than peak Stamkos?

Apparently voters are putting more value into someone who is not playing on PP with an Art Ross/Hart/Lindsay winner - and still has more goals.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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11 goals is 11 goals regardless of the number of scoring chances required.

Generating 50% more scoring chances. Yet Edmonton in more games has allowed fewer goals so the defensive side of generating scoring chances is not in play.

Presently the difference between the Caps and Oilers is the contribution from the supporting players.

Ovechkin is easy to watch. Know where to find him on the ice and like an aging John Bucyk, scoring 51 goals at age 35, shooting 22.7% is relatively efficient compared to contemporaries

John Bucyk Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

More like the Bobby Orr affect.
 

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