How much more valuable are goals compared to assists?

[suedehead6]

Someone should set up a site where visitors can subjectively portion out the credit for every NHL goal and generate the average amount of credit given to a goal scorer, primary assister, and secondary assister.

I actually did take the time back in 2021 to subjectively give credit to individual players for 115 5-on-5 goals scored by the Rangers in the abbreviated 2020-21 season. This is not a large enough sample size, but it is at least a starting point. Here are some numbers from those goals:

Four of the goals were unassisted. I gave the goal scorer an average of 68% of the credit. The four teammates on the ice who recorded no points on the plays I gave an average of 8% of the credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer obviously gets 100% credit.​

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23 of the goals had only one assist. I gave the goal scorer an average of 45% credit, the assister 40% of the credit, and the three teammates to not record a point an average of 5% of the credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer's share was 53% and the assister 47%.​

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88 of the goals had two assists. I gave the goal scorer an average of 35% of the credit, the primary assister 29% of the credit, the secondary assister 21%, and the two teammates not receiving points an average of 8% credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer's share was 42%, the primary assister's share was 34%, and the secondary assister's share 24%.​

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If you were to take those credit shares (and assume 7% of goals are unassisted, 18% have one assist, and 76% two assists, which are the actual percentages from the '21-'22 and '22-'23 seasons combined), you (I think) would get goals created formulas like this:

When you have primary and secondary assist data:
(G*.476)+(primaryA*.366)+(secondaryA*.243)

When you don't have primary and secondary assist data:
(G*.476)+(A*.310)

 

[Petrus]

Someone should set up a site where visitors can subjectively portion out the credit for every NHL goal and generate the average amount of credit given to a goal scorer, primary assister, and secondary assister.

I actually did take the time back in 2021 to subjectively give credit to individual players for 115 5-on-5 goals scored by the Rangers in the abbreviated 2020-21 season. This is not a large enough sample size, but it is at least a starting point. Here are some numbers from those goals:

Four of the goals were unassisted. I gave the goal scorer an average of 68% of the credit. The four teammates on the ice who recorded no points on the plays I gave an average of 8% of the credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer obviously gets 100% credit.​

​

23 of the goals had only one assist. I gave the goal scorer an average of 45% credit, the assister 40% of the credit, and the three teammates to not record a point an average of 5% of the credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer's share was 53% and the assister 47%.​

​

88 of the goals had two assists. I gave the goal scorer an average of 35% of the credit, the primary assister 29% of the credit, the secondary assister 21%, and the two teammates not receiving points an average of 8% credit each. Among players receiving points on the play, the goal scorer's share was 42%, the primary assister's share was 34%, and the secondary assister's share 24%.​

​

If you were to take those credit shares (and assume 7% of goals are unassisted, 18% have one assist, and 76% two assists, which are the actual percentages from the '21-'22 and '22-'23 seasons combined), you (I think) would get goals created formulas like this:

When you have primary and secondary assist data:
(G*.476)+(primaryA*.366)+(secondaryA*.243)

When you don't have primary and secondary assist data:
(G*.476)+(A*.310)

You are a genuine fan. Kudos to you!