How much more valuable are goals compared to assists?

[jigglysquishy]

Yes - these are (approximately) the weightings that, over a span of 11 years, maximize the predictive value of this year's production vs. next year's. That, to me, is the most sensible basis for determining the relative values in a systematic way (i.e. rather than judging each play individually).

Applying this metric to this year's scoring race.

1. McDavid - 44 G 48 A1 30 A2 = 112 points
2. Huberdeau - 30 G 53 A1 32 A2 = 104.33 points
3. Gaudreau - 39 G 52 A1 22 A2 = 105.66 points
4. Draisailt- 55 G 32 A1 22 A2 = 101.66 points
5. Matthews - 60 G 26 A1 20 A2 = 99.33 points

 

[PensandCaps]

Rather have a consistent play driver than a goal scorer.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Honest question, who is the all-time leader in third assists?

Assists are truly just as valuable as goals unless unassisted. But the only answer here is goals because that's what the score is based on.

 

[Asif10]

an assists guarantees a goal but a goal doesn't guarantee an assist, maybe assists are more valuable because it shows engagement level of at least 2 players where goals can mean only 1.

To take it further secondary assists show the engagement level of at least 3 of your players (60% on the line)

 

[nbwingsfan]

There’s no possible way to figure out a proper value. None.

Every goal is different. Some goals happen where the player didn’t even know the scores because the puck hit off his stick accidentally, or went off his ass. Some secondary assists come from an incredible defensive play and effort and a tic tac toe where everyone was involved.

Sure I’m theory secondary assists in theory may hold less value, but you really have no idea unless you went through every single point a player had in a season.

Seems pretty dumb to devalue anything just based on “you can score without an assist”.

 

[Dirty Dan]

Everything is valuable. Secondary assists are often grinders on the board or a dman holding the line

Players who are dynamic enough to create goals by themselves are rare. That should be another metric, players who score without recieving a pass 5-10 seconds. Think ovechkin going end to end or mcdavid

 

[authentic]

Rather have a consistent play driver than a goal scorer.

Why not both?

 

[pawnster]

Rather have a consistent play driver than a goal scorer.

So just to be clear, you'd take Backstrom over Ovechkin? Oates over Hull?

Come on.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Goals and primary assists have equal value in my book.

 

[PaulD]

I think most on here would agree that scoring goals is more difficult than putting up assist (and thus more valuable) but how much more valuable would a goal be compared to an assist?

I think I seen somewhere that on average for every goal there is 1.7 assist but I'm not sure how accurate that was?

Depends.
A player could take a puck from opponent , beat two guys , speed into the offensive zone then feed a teamate for a two foot tap in on a 2 on 1.
Assist more valuable

Or a guy can take a short pass from the goalie go end to end and put it top shelf for the game winner.
Goal more valuable.

The best players do both really well.
Some Star players can beat the goalie better than most.
Some star players are better at beating the goalie by using team mates to finish it.

It's like asking what's more valuable on a muscle car ......the steering wheel or the gas peddle?

 

[Mez]

Some assists are worth more than goals...some goals are worth more than assists. Its completely subjective to each and every play. I do think an excellent play driver/ play maker is more important than a pure goal scorer. and of course those excellent at both are even more important.

 

[Puckclektr]

Matthews is an excellent puckhandler, likely better than your example of Marner. Matthews plays much more physical than he's given credit for. Dunno how much you watch Leafs games but Matthews is amazing at moving the puck in the d-zone. The difference is they aren't dramatic cross ice or two line passes. They're all lightning quick 6 footers that you better be ready for or it will look bad.

Honestly, I think Matthews is a better playmaker than he is a goal scorer. It's just no one can keep up.

I get it you like Matthews but your whole post is absolutely irrelevant. DO you want me to use Matthews for every example I used? WTF does MAttews have to do with you post.

Let me redo the post for you. See below.

But do they usually get the puck without the other person making some sort of an effort. There are people that aren't good scorers but excellent passers. If those people don't do the work do get those people the puck, that guy isn't going to score anywhere near as close.
Lets look at the players that assist in feeding the puck.
Puckhandlers- players like MATTHEWS use thier hands and creativity to draw players to themselves creating open spaces for scorers. They don't just pass. it is a developed skill that not everyone has. Like you said they are important because of the diversion and confusion created. That is a skill and should be awarded no less than a goal.
Physcical players- Using your body to fight for the puck in order to get it to the person in scoring position. Or as a secondary assist. Someone like MATTHEWS or MATTHEWS using your body to get the puck to the primary assist getter in order to set someone up or take a shot on goal. Many times those secondary passes are more important. If that guy didn't go get the puck using his strength, then the goal wouldn't be scored.
Defensive puck movers- LIKE MATTHEWS As I said in a previous post, moving the puck and getting it on the stick of someone in the defensive zone or outside of the defensive zone is harder to do as there is more risk. Generally nobody behind you. Most of the time those are secondary or even third assists.

These can be even more important than goal scorers, becasue without them there is NO scoring chance which would result in NO goal.
Hockey is a team game and although the scorer "finished" the play, that by no means means it was more important or easier than the other people assisting in the goal. Without that player assisting in the play, that goal most likely wouldn't have happened.
The only way we can look sating a goal is worth two assists is when it is unassisted or for the most part, every goal looked at individually and the whole play assisted. But we can't. There are many times when the assist should be worth more than the goal. I can argue that a percentage of goals maybe 10 percent, where the third assist isn't even awarded to a player but was the actual assist that created the play that led to the goal. Even many times a player can be more important to allowing the goal without even touching the puck.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

You can score a goal unassisted but you can’t have assists without a goal.

Playmakers are important of course, but no one could make the argument that a 50 assist player is worth the same as a 50 goal scorer.

It’s hard to assign a numerical worth to goals versus assists, but I would say subjectively that it’s worth a little bit more (maybe 20-30% more?).

 

[Puckclektr]

I was just about to post this. I swear people on this board don’t even watch him play because you still have people doubting he’s a better defensive player than McDavid, who has actually become pretty good himself btw.

A big part of the reason Matthews is such a good goal scorer and all around player is because he’s such a good playmaker, and his hands/puck control/hockey IQ are not just elite but basically best in the league territory.

Seriously. Are you people out of your minds. Nowhere did I say Matthews wasn't a good puck handler. Nowhere did I say he wasn't a good defensive player or playmaker. For the love of god I just used examples. One of Marners assets that he has is that he can force defensemen towards him opening space. That doesn't mean that MAtthews isn't a good puck handler. THe fact that I mention Hyman and Wilson as a physcial player doesn't mean that MAtthews isnt' a physical player. OR saying that a puck moving defenseman is vital to a play doesn't mean that matthews isn't a good defensive player. Lord have mercy. You guys are the reason why people hate the Leafs. Just relax.

 

[PaulD]

So just to be clear, you'd take Backstrom over Ovechkin? Oates over Hull?

Come on.

No. But I would take Mackinnon over OV
McDavid over Matthews.
Marchand over Kreider.

 

[authentic]

Seriously. Are you people out of your minds. Nowhere did I say Matthews wasn't a good puck handler. Nowhere did I say he wasn't a good defensive player or playmaker. For the love of god I just used examples. One of Marners assets that he has is that he can force defensemen towards him opening space. That doesn't mean that MAtthews isn't a good puck handler. THe fact that I mention Hyman and Wilson as a physcial player doesn't mean that MAtthews isnt' a physical player. OR saying that a puck moving defenseman is vital to a play doesn't mean that matthews isn't a good defensive player. Lord have mercy. You guys are the reason why people hate the Leafs. Just relax.

Where did I say you said any of that? I was speaking more in general terms, wasn’t even thinking of your post to be honest.

“You guys are the reason people hate the Leafs”

No, people hate the Leafs regardless of what any fans say, the craziest fans I’ve seen on these boards are Leafs haters who post more about Leafs players than their own team.

 

[PaulD]

Seriously. Are you people out of your minds. Nowhere did I say Matthews wasn't a good puck handler. Nowhere did I say he wasn't a good defensive player or playmaker. For the love of god I just used examples. One of Marners assets that he has is that he can force defensemen towards him opening space. That doesn't mean that MAtthews isn't a good puck handler. THe fact that I mention Hyman and Wilson as a physcial player doesn't mean that MAtthews isnt' a physical player. OR saying that a puck moving defenseman is vital to a play doesn't mean that matthews isn't a good defensive player. Lord have mercy. You guys are the reason why people hate the Leafs. Just relax.

Save your breath man.

 

[nowhereman]

A point is a point. But every point needs context. Often times, the secondary assist "argument" is used against guys like Crosby, McDavid, Thornton, Sedin, Forsberg, etc. but those same players generate(d) a substantial amount of assists, both primary and secondary, over a massive sample size. In that case, assists are more of an indication of the player's playmaking skill and ability to drive play. Scoffing at the "randomness" of assists is absurd, when those specific players' game was anything but random and they registered those totals year over year.

The "goalz are everything" crowd usually prop up goalscoring over playmaking because lighting the lamp is more exciting (or their favorite player is a goalscorer) but there is more to generating offense than finishing a play.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You can score a goal unassisted but you can’t have assists without a goal.

Playmakers are important of course, but no one could make the argument that a 50 assist player is worth the same as a 50 goal scorer.

It’s hard to assign a numerical worth to goals versus assists, but I would say subjectively that it’s worth a little bit more (maybe 20-30% more?).

You can also accidentally score a goal where someone does all the work for you and without you even noticing they bounced it in off your skate. Would you say the goal is 20% more valuable here?

 

[PaulD]

There’s no possible way to figure out a proper value. None.

Every goal is different. Some goals happen where the player didn’t even know the scores because the puck hit off his stick accidentally, or went off his ass. Some secondary assists come from an incredible defensive play and effort and a tic tac toe where everyone was involved.

Sure I’m theory secondary assists in theory may hold less value, but you really have no idea unless you went through every single point a player had in a season.

Seems pretty dumb to devalue anything just based on “you can score without an assist”.

How many unassisted one timers do the top goal scores get in a season ?
No pass.....no one timer.

 

[SomeDude]

It's simple ... it depends on the goal.

Tap in? Playmaker deserves more recognition.

Takeaway then pass to a player who scores? Both just as valuable.

Player snipes an impossible shot? Goalscorer deserves recognition.

Etc etc etc

IMO assists can be just as valuable or more. You can't analyze it the way you're trying to do. Even secondary assists can make an entire play, way more often than people like to admit, which is why it counts as a point.

Wait, you mean the world is not only black and white?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

You can also accidentally score a goal where someone does all the work for you and without you even noticing they bounced it in off your skate. Would you say the goal is 20% more valuable here?

I never said that, you made that up yourself. It’s not an exact science or something that can be applied to each individual goal, more of an overall observation.

 

[PaulD]

Where did I say you said any of that? I was speaking more in general terms, wasn’t even thinking of your post to be honest.

“You guys are the reason people hate the Leafs”

No, people hate the Leafs regardless of what any fans say, the craziest fans I’ve seen on these boards are Leafs haters who post more about Leafs players than their own team

Nope . It's the fans and the Toronto media.
The "Leafs team" and management just give us the ammo. Why in the world would we hate that???

Good luck in the first round.......

 

[Hoglander]

Each goal needs to be looked at individually. There was a 4 year stretch where Alex Burrows was a league-wide top 5 goal scorer, yet I don't think anybody would say he was one of the 5 best forwards in the game during that time, and probably not close to it either (although he was very good).

 

[nowhereman]

You can score a goal unassisted but you can’t have assists without a goal.

Playmakers are important of course, but no one could make the argument that a 50 assist player is worth the same as a 50 goal scorer.

It’s hard to assign a numerical worth to goals versus assists, but I would say subjectively that it’s worth a little bit more (maybe 20-30% more?).

But, really, how many goals are unassisted?

For the overwhelming majority of hockey plays, the playmaker is just as instrumental is generating a goal as the scorer. Most of the time, that goal doesn't get scored if the playmaker doesn't create a favorable offensive opportunity.