How much has Anaheim improved for 2023-24?

[WhatTheDuck]

The Ducks were terrible in 2022-23, finishing dead last in the league and setting new historical lows for defensive futility.

This off season, they've clearly targetted steady/proven veterans to try and provide their young core with some proper insulation. Killorn, Gudas and Lybushkin should help bring at least a bit more respectability.

This is the roster the Ducks iced for their last game of the season:

Adam Henrique - Trevor Zegras - Troy Terry
Max Jones - Ryan Strome - Frank Vatrano
Nikita Nesterenko - Isac Lundestrom - Jakob Silfverberg
Derek Grant - Bo Groulx - Sam Carrick

Can Fowler - Simon Benoit
Jackson Lacombe - Kevin Shattenkirk
Colton White - Drew Helleson

John Gibson
Lukas Dostal

(McTavish and Drysdale injured)


Compare that with their current projected roster for the upcoming season (I didn't get too caught up with lines/pairings):

Killorn - Zegras - Terry
Henrique - McTavish - Vatrano
Jones - Carlsson - Strome
McGinn - Groulx - Silfverberg
(Nesterenko, Regenda, Carrick, Leason)

Fowler - Drysdale
Lacombe - Gudas
Mintyukov/Zellweger/Hinds - Lybushkin
Hagg
(Helleson, White)

Gibson
Dostal/Stalock

Also worth nothing that they moved on from Dallas Eakins and have hired a very well respected, albeit rookie HC in Greg Cronin.

Obviously a lot of uncertainty there regarding which young players crack the roster, and how much impact they can provide. Based on your best guesses of how that plays out, where do you see this team finishing in 2023/24?

Click to read more...

 

[Leonardo87]

If the kids progress and the vets play well , could surprise. They are closer to the 2021-22 team where they were in a playoff spot till the ASG when they still had Lindholm, Manson, and Rakell. But now they Added two D who are physical and can clear the crease and removed a lot of D who struggled to get the puck out of their own zone and added another Top 6 forward in Killorn. So Rakell and Manson have been replaced and then some, but still missing that legit top pairing D they had with Lindholm. Fowler can only do so much but with the additions, will help support Fowler like on the PK and whatnot and take some mins away from him.

Oh and yeah , no more Eakins, that alone could get them another 10-15 points, lol. It’s a much different team from last season, the D will be totally different, and the Top 6 improved. New coach and really don’t know what to expect. Roster was bad last season but Eakins just is not a good coach.

The final thing, which could be the x-factor, is how Gibson will perform. Verbeek improved the D enough to give him support where it should see better results.

With that said, think they end up 10-12th last(bottom 3rd), but if the planets mostly align and some players have break out years could be flirting with a WC slot but will most likely not make the playoffs. If they are bottom 5 again, it’s going to be trouble, as the rebuild is going in the wrong direction.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If the kids progress and the vets play well , could surprise. They are closer to the 2021-22 team where they were in a playoff spot till the ASG when they still had Lindholm, Manson, and Rakell. But now they Added two D who are physical and can clear the crease and removed a lot of D who struggled to get the puck out of their own zone and added another Top 6 forward in Killorn. So Rakell and Manson have been replaced and then some, but still missing that legit top pairing D they had with Lindholm. Fowler can only do so much but with the additions, will help support Fowler like on the PK and whatnot and take some mins away from him.

Oh and yeah , no more Eakins, that alone could get them another 10-15 points, lol. It’s a much different team from last season, the D will be totally different, and the Top 6 improved. New coach and really don’t know what to expect. Roster was bad last season but Eakins just is not a good coach.

The final thing, which could be the x-factor, is how Gibson will perform. Verbeek improved the D enough to give him support where it should see better results.

With that said, think they end up 10-12th last(bottom 3rd), but if the planets mostly align and some players have break out years could be flirting with a WC slot but will most likely not make the playoffs. If they are bottom 5 again, it’s going to be trouble, as the rebuild is going in the wrong direction.

Mostly agree with everything said, but in regards to your very final comment. They were so terrible last year that they could show a fair bit of improvement, and be way more competitive on a nightly basis, but still come in around 5th worst in the league. Still would be a step in the right direction IMO, and you're then possibly adding yet another high end young talent, with so much hope for further improvement from within.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Hard to say especially on the coaching front. Eakins was also a well respected rookie coach at one point.
On paper the D looks better and there should be some internal growth from the young players.
Goalie still looks like a big question mark though.
Overall I voted slight improvement as I think the Pacific overall has improved from a couple of years ago when it was the weakest division.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Is Minty expected to make the squad or a 9-game sniff? I didn’t project him on their roster for the year.

I think the Ducks jump to the bottom third. Even with their roster last year I don’t think they should have finished last. Eakins, IMO, was the biggest issue.

 

[Leonardo87]

Mostly agree with everything said, but in regards to your very final comment. They were so terrible last year that they could show a fair bit of improvement, and be way more competitive on a nightly basis, but still come in around 5th worst in the league. Still would be a step in the right direction IMO, and you're then possibly adding yet another high end young talent, with so much hope for further improvement from within.

It’s more of a personal expectation for me. I just feel another bottom 5 finish won’t be good for morale and not good enough improvement.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Hard to say especially on the coaching front. Eakins was also a well respected rookie coach at one point.
On paper the D looks better and there should be some internal growth from the young players.
Goalie still looks like a big question mark though.

I definitely felt I had to include the caveat that Cronin is a rookie HC, I think everyone expects him to be an improvement, but it's not a guarantee until he proves it.

End of the day, based on defensive personnel, I think that any coach would have struggled with last year's group. Too short on NHL quality D and none of them true defensive types.

Goaltending is among the least of concerns for me. Not to stir up another Gibson debate but I think he's just fine if the situation in front of him isn't complete futile. Dostal has held up pretty well for a young goalie breaking in to such a situation, and Stalock was solid on a bad team himself this past year. Clang is an interesting prospect who shouldn't be forced into much if any NHL action in his first NA season.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Is Minty expected to make the squad or a 9-game sniff? I didn’t project him on their roster for the year.

I think the Ducks jump to the bottom third. Even with their roster last year I don’t think they should have finished last. Eakins, IMO, was the biggest issue.

Well the 9 game thing doesn't really apply any more, Mintyukov is AHL bound now if not with the big club.

I think with him and any of the other top prospects (Carlsson, Mintyukov, Zellweger etc) there's nothing set in stone as of now. They'll come into camp and decide where they best fit for their development based on their play. There's enough other depth around to fill in the NHL roster if they need a bit of AHL time (or perhaps back to Sweden in Carlsson's case).

Lacombe is easier to pencil in as a rookie because he's a bit older coming out of college and has a couple games of NHL experience already. There's also some notion that Hinds could jump the line and make the NHL a bit quicker than Minty/Zell despite having less overall upside. His defensive game is already pretty advanced and physically he looks the part.

But there's no need to force any of the D prospects into the NHL. If they have to start the year with Hagg and White on the roster, it's far from the end of the world. I just think that before too long, Mintyukov is going to prove too good to be anywhere but the best league in the world.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

It’s more of a personal expectation for me. I just feel another bottom 5 finish won’t be good for morale and not good enough improvement.

I guess for me it would depend on what kind of bottom 5 finish haha. The Habs finished fifth last in the league last year, had ten more points than the Ducks and a better goal differential by a whopping 54. That seems like a fairly reasonable incremental improvement for each of the next two years. One year where we are better but still fairly bad, then more of a .500 club the following season. Hopefully by then we have some key young talent really breaking out and can contend thereafter.

 

[stevo61]

I feel like there could be notable improvement and still be bottom 5. They probably pass San Jose, Philly and Chicago. After that there will probably be some surprise horrible team(s) but based off of last year I dont see a crazy jump in the standings

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think bottom third.

WHile they're more insulated the most prominent players are the kids--and while I think they're raw skilled enough to be competitive, I'm not sure they're seasonsed/adult-strength enough, especially the more prominent defensemen.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have been very confused about the praise I've seen for Anaheim on this site. They still look like they're going to be really bad. They may be better than last year but it's still a bottom tier team.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think it really depends on what Carlsson does, if Drysdale can actually put together a full season and if Mintyukov or Zellweger make the team.

If Carlsson can do what Beniers did in Seattle, Drysdale can put together a top four season in terms of his position and one of Zellweger or Mintyukov can be a younger player with upside I think we will see the Ducks be good.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

=== Ducks Stats, previous two seasons

Ducks	Stats
Season	2021-22			2022-23
Stat	Raw	Rank		Raw	Rank
ES GF	228​	24th		206​	31st
ES GA	226​	23rd		335​	32nd
PP %	21.92%​	14th		15.72%​	31st
PK %	80.80%​	10th		72.14%​	31st

Anaheim's PP and PK were very good two seasons ago, but the loss of top defensemen in !D Lindholm and top-4D Manson on the backend exposed the dire weakness on Anaheim's 2022-23 roster like having no cos players at an Animecon. If a team can't stop the puck or win the puck in the DZ, then the team is always living in the DZ and reduces the chances of scoring.

=== Coaching Staff

Ducks	Coaching	Staff
Coaching
Title	2021-22	2022-23	to	2023-24	Comment
Head Coach	Eakins	Eakins		Cronin	Avs AHL coach
PP Coach	Ward	Brown		Brown
Def Coach	Stothers	Stothers		Thompson	NYI AHL coach, NYI asst coach 2012-14
Rover coach	Brown	Johnson		Johnson

Anaheim will have unknown quantities in rookie HC Cronin and its new defensive asst coach in Brent Thompson.

From the stats and coaching chart, we can identify that the drop in defense and PK was due to lack of talent than coaching. The PP dropping is scary because it didn't lose talent, but rather added more talent with Strome, Vatrano, and McTavish.

On positive note, GM Pat Verbeek (PV) acquired physical, defensive d-men in Gudas and Lyubushkin this time around rather than having offensive defensemen forced to play defensive roles with PV's d-men acquisitions last year.

The scary part is the retention of both Brown and Johnson. Johnson is a PV hire, but Brown is a hold over from the previous regime.

Conclusion: The PP looks like it may remain a lost cause, but everything else should improve due to the improvement in the roster.

=== Forwards ===

=== Top-6F

Notable Addition(s): Killorn (top-6F), Groulx (4C rookie), and possibly Carlsson
Notable Subtractions: Comtois (well... not really notable)

Anaheim added more goal scoring and grit with the addition of Killorn, who has scored 25 or more goals the past two seasons. With 25 more goals, the Ducks would be ranked 26th instead of 31st.

• Breakout Forward: McTavish.
  
  • McTavish went from 2LW to 4C, 3C, 2C, 1C, and back down to 2C all in his rookie season in the NHL. He also lead the team in PP goal scoring with 7 goals and tied for 2nd in PP points with 14th. Mac finished 4th overall in team scoring with 43 points (17g, 26a). He faded around game 50 of the season.
  • Part of the reason he faded was due to a lack of summer because the CHL/Memorial cup ran long with the new COVID schedule. The Memorial cup was from June 20 - 29th, which McTavish' team, Hamilton, lost in the championship game. Afterwards, McTavish participated in the summer edition of the WJC-20, which took place from Aug 9 - 20. The Ducks' rookie tourney took place from Sept 15-18. Finally, training camp starts.

Top-6 projected

Killorn - Zegras - Terry​

Henrique - McTavish - Vatrano*​

Strome was slated for 2RW, but 3C Lundy's injury will slide Strome down to 3C.

Top-6 conclusion: Big improvement expected

Bottom-6F

Injury: 3C Lundestrom, out until Jan/Feb.
Rookie: C Groulx

Bottom-6 Projected

Jones-Strome-Silf​

Carrick-Groulx-Leason​

McGinn​

There is a possibility that Carlsson can stick with the NHL club as 3LW, but that would imply Carlsson isn't developing at center.

Lundestrom is one of the team's best defensive forwards. Losing his talent hurts the bottom-6 talent depth.

Bottom-6 conclusion: meh to downgrade due to Lundy's injury.

=== Defense ===

Additions: RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, LD Hagg
Subtractions: LD Benoit, RD Klingberg, LD Kulikov, RD Shattenkirk, and LD Beaulieu
Return from season ending injury: RD Drysdale
Probably rookie in the lineup: LD LaCombe

Last year's defensive corps were lacking physical, shutdown d-men types. Aside from Fowler, Anaheim didn't have any other top-4D on the roster. The Ducks probably had more 7D-9D talent last year. It didn't help when Drysdale was lost after the first eight games. Most of the defense were offensive/transition d-men forced to play shutdown D. Fowler was part of the PK unit and he doesn't move players in front of the net! Anaheim also had many LD's playing on their off-sides when Drysdale and Klingberg would be out of the lineup.

The addition of natrual RD's Gudas and Lyubushkin helps in a more balanced defense. Although both are bottom-pairing D, their role is best suited for a team filled with OFD/2-way D types. Gudas will definitely play up higher in the lineup and that would still be an improvement. Hagg replaces Benoit, who was the Ducks' leading hitter last year.

Projection D pairings

Fowler - Drysdale​

LaCombe (rookie) - Gudas​

Hagg - Lyubushkin​

White​

The youths Drysdale and LaCombe are paired with veteran D. It's either that or Drysdale is on the bottom pairing.

• A big improvement could be had, but it's dependent on the two youths.
  • Although LaCombe is a rookie, he has spent the past four years developing his defensive game at the NCAA level. LaCombe participated in all three aspects of the game: ES, PP, and PK. He finished 4th overall in scoring for defensemen at the NCAA last year, knows where to block shots, and skates like the wind. In his two-game NHL stint last year after finishing his NCAA career, LaCombe lead the team in blocked shots in each game: 3 BS in his first game and 6 BS in his second game. His two-game NHL ATOI was 18:29, while participating on the PP.
  • Drysdale remains an enigma. The 2020, 6th overall pick lost development time when he fell to a season ending injury early in the season. It was a torn labrum, which shouldn't affect his skating. The only thing noticeable from Drysdale's injury was he looked like he bulk up. That is a positive development so that his body can tolerate more punishment.

Defensive conclusion: unknown due to too many variables. There are five new defensemen in the lineup this year compared to last year, which includes Drysdale as a new defenseman. It may take until December for this grouping to feel cohesive.

=== Ducks' Points History ===

​

Ducks​	Points %​	​	​	​	​	​
Season​	Games​	Points​	Points %​	Finish​	Playoffs​	Drafted​
2017-18​	82​	101​	0.616​	9th​	Yes​	23rd​
2018-19​	82​	80​	0.488​	24th​	No​	9th​
2019-20​	71​	67​	0.472​	27th​	No​	6th​
2020-21​	56​	43​	0.384​	30th​	No​	3rd​
2021-22​	82​	76​	0.463​	23rd​	No​	10th​
2022-23​	82​	58​	0.354​	32nd​	No​	2nd​

Can one new top-6 forward and five new defensemen (1 rookie, 1 youth, and 3 bottom-D on good teams) be enough to take a worst team in the league last year to .500 Points %? A .500 Points % finish would still place the Ducks in the bottom third of the league.

Anaheim is established in it's top-6F and netminding. It's that gap between the two that will ultimately determine how good or mediocre the Ducks will be next season.

 

[biturbo19]

It's hard to say how much impact the coaching change will have. Hard to imagine it being as much of a mess, and they've added some more heavy, defensively responsible players. Plus getting Drysdale back should help.

I don't think they'll be historically awful defensively again, but probably not far off from it. Especially if Gibson does in fact end up traded as he's requested. As bad as things were last year, they'd look a lot worse without him back there.


As a whole, i think that probably keeps them still right down there at the very bottom of the league standings.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's hard to say how much impact the coaching change will have. Hard to imagine it being as much of a mess, and they've added some more heavy, defensively responsible players. Plus getting Drysdale back should help.

I don't think they'll be historically awful defensively again, but probably not far off from it. Especially if Gibson does in fact end up traded as he's requested. As bad as things were last year, they'd look a lot worse without him back there.


As a whole, i think that probably keeps them still right down there at the very bottom of the league standings.

The coaching change and a lot of turnover, too...

...I think they'll gain steam as the season goes along as guys get used to new guys, new roles, and new coaches, but I can't imagine a relatively young team with so much turnover roaring out of the gates either. Totally fair to assume overall improvement because it looks like it on paper, but I think it takes a while to get going.

But--I do think it will be a pivotal year to solidify projected roles for future direction, especially for guys like Zegras/MacTavish/Carlsson and Drysdale/Minty/etc

They still have a little bit of fudge room and low expectations, they should take advantage of that.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I have been very confused about the praise I've seen for Anaheim on this site. They still look like they're going to be really bad. They may be better than last year but it's still a bottom tier team.

I believe it’s going to be that way; bottom 10. Cronin seems like a mix between the two past coaches - Carlyle and Eakins (hard-ass but excellent with player development). His lack of NHL experience worries me but it is what it is

While we do have some excellent defensive prospects coming through the pipeline - our GM already said that he is going to let their development do the work and be patient with the process. Whether he keeps that promise up is anyone’s guess

I have been vocal for a while that I’m not too impressed with the Ducks offensive weapons. Adding Killorn is a great move for his intangibles, but I wonder if he can keep his offense going in Anaheim. Sometimes I wish we could trade some of our defensive prospects for a better forward prospect
L

 

[LevelingSolo]

Well the coaching will definitely better because you can't be worse then Eakins

Killorn is a nice add and they have some good young talent

I still think they are 2 years away minimum to competing for a playoff spot

Also what happened to John Gibson never playing another game with them or something?

 

[Lou Bloom]

I think they'll have a big improvement offensively but still be weighed down by poor defensive play. Somewhere between 7th-10th worst record. Should be a fun team to watch.

 

[Gliff]

Well the coaching will definitely better because you can't be worse then Eakins

Killorn is a nice add and they have some good young talent

I still think they are 2 years away minimum to competing for a playoff spot

Also what happened to John Gibson never playing another game with them or something?

He never said it.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

It's hard to say how much impact the coaching change will have. Hard to imagine it being as much of a mess, and they've added some more heavy, defensively responsible players. Plus getting Drysdale back should help.

I don't think they'll be historically awful defensively again, but probably not far off from it. Especially if Gibson does in fact end up traded as he's requested. As bad as things were last year, they'd look a lot worse without him back there.


As a whole, i think that probably keeps them still right down there at the very bottom of the league standings.

The best thing about the Ducks last year was all of their goaltenders. They all kept the Ducks in the games and earn several points they probably didn't deserve.

Ducks	Goalies	2022-23
Player	Age	GP	Starts	Sv%	GAA		Quality Starts	QS%
Gibson	29​	53​	52​	0.899​	3.99​		25​	0.481​
Stolarz	29​	19​	12​	0.897​	3.73​		3​	0.25​
Dostal	22​	19​	17​	0.901​	3.78​		12​	0.706​

Anaheim isn't trading away Gibson until young Dostal has more NHL burn. It may be a year or two from now, but until Dostal establishes himself at the NHL level, then Gibby isn't going anywhere. Stolarz is no longer with the team to allow Dostal more playing time in the NHL.

======

This year is another development year for the Ducks' org at both the NHL and AHL levels. A majority of the high-end defensive prospects are entering into the AHL this season in Zellweger, Hinds, and Mintyukov. They also have Helleson in the mix. Anaheim also has QMJHL D-man of the year in Luneau still in the CHL along with long term project in 6'5 RD Noah Warren, and possibly could sign Harvard junior RD Ian Moore a year away.

At forward, maybe Carlsson stays in the AHL as its 1C/2C, getting top-6 minutes. There is bottom-6 help in C Gaucher along with a bevy of complimentary, top-6 wingers in Perreault, Tracey, and Pastujov.

The team probably wants to see the big jump in McTavish's game in his second season in the NHL with a proper summer off.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I’ll guess a 15 to 20 point improvement. The pacific didn’t do much to get stronger this off-season outside of LA. That will help, but I’m still expecting them to be bottom 6.

 

[Mike C]

Hang on a sec!

Anaheim is still in the NHL??

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Playoffs, knock oilers out in round 1.

It’s time

I have been very confused about the praise I've seen for Anaheim on this site. They still look like they're going to be really bad. They may be better than last year but it's still a bottom tier team.

What praise have you seen…. Outside of having a solid prospect pool(specifically defense) they don’t get a ton of praise.

 

[Video Nasty]

Really good discussion so far and mostly by people who seem to know the team.

I don’t think there’s any shame if they make a slight improvement yet remain a bottom 5 team.

After all, one had to reach 70 points last year to be 27th in the league. 25 teams had at least 80 points.

So the upper bottom third based off last season’s standings means they would have to hover around .500 in Points %.

Seems like too big of a jump too soon.