How much do the Leafs miss Kapanen?

[DarkKnight]

Kerfoot is better than him at even strength .

Imagine actually believing this....wow. Throw that up on the Avs board for a laugh.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'm probably his biggest cheerleader on here. But, he just never evolved. The guy always had the speed and the balls to throw hits and block shots but his legs were always a step ahead of his brain. That's pretty much how he's been since he was a teenager and it hasn't changed, unfortunately.

This. Plus he seems like he's a bit of a dinkus

 

[Ciao]

He scores some pretty clutch goals in BIG moments so I will miss that. And he was by far the fastest skater on the team, just his brain and hands couldnt really keep up.

His linemates couldn't keep up either.

He was really good at getting solo fast breaks and losing the puck in the o-zone before any teammates could join him.

If he can learn to connect his lower body (legs, feet, skates) with his upper body (eyes, brains, hands) he would be awesome.

He also mixes it up and has some grit.

 

[Ciao]

This. Plus he seems like he's a bit of a dinkus

I have the opposite impression.

I dont know much of anything about these young men, but I have a very favorable impression of him.

 

[Ciao]

Hes got great speed but never really figured out how to translate it into production outside of the pk.

I liked him here and hope it clicks in
Pitt but Toronto couldn't wait anymore

His ultra-fast solo breaks on the PK were great, but they didn't seem to work as well at even strength when the other side was a bit more prepared for defence.

Bozak was good at that too. Sort of fast, but nothing compared to Kapanen.

 

[zeke]

Imagine actually believing this....wow. Throw that up on the Avs board for a laugh.

Even Strength, Since the Trade:

Kadri: 13:25, 38pt pace, 45.7xgf% (-7.8rel)
Kerfoot: 13:09, 32pt pace, 52.9xgf% (+0.6rel)

Not close, really. Negligible offensive advantage for Kadri, while being a disaster defensively.

 

[Leafs87]

Not at all. As a player I wish he stayed an Kerfoot went, but that return kinda had me blown away.

 

[Critical13]

Even Strength, Since the Trade:

Kadri: 13:25, 38pt pace, 45.7xgf% (-7.8rel)
Kerfoot: 13:09, 32pt pace, 52.9xgf% (+0.6rel)

Not close, really. Negligible offensive advantage for Kadri, while being a disaster defensively.

Kadri ways always a disaster defensively outside of half a season or so. He was a disaster defensively for Colorado I. The playoffs too.

Kapanen was another Mikheyev but with better opportunities....

We really have a grass is greener mentality with these ex-players that had all the same faults we are still complaining about with our current group.

 

[Leafs87]

Kadri ways always a disaster defensively outside of half a season or so. He was a disaster defensively for Colorado I. The playoffs too.

Kapanen was another Mikheyev but with better opportunities....

We really have a grass is greener mentality with these ex-players that had all the same faults we are still complaining about with our current group.

I have watched so many completely different groups of players fail in this same jersey. I am starting to wonder if it’s not an organization/fan base thing.

 

[DarkKnight]

Even Strength, Since the Trade:

Kadri: 13:25, 38pt pace, 45.7xgf% (-7.8rel)
Kerfoot: 13:09, 32pt pace, 52.9xgf% (+0.6rel)

Not close, really. Negligible offensive advantage for Kadri, while being a disaster defensively.

This is why the IT guy never gets promoted to management.

 

[Leafs87]

This is why the IT guy never gets promoted to management.

IT and analytics are two totally different things.

Mostly everyone in big corps are brought in through analyst roles nowadays, and management rely heavily on them for decision making.


I sure you knew all that based on your post of how mangers are promoted.

 

[zeke]

Kadri ways always a disaster defensively outside of half a season or so. He was a disaster defensively for Colorado I. The playoffs too.

Kapanen was another Mikheyev but with better opportunities....

We really have a grass is greener mentality with these ex-players that had all the same faults we are still complaining about with our current group.

Kadri was legit very good for a couple years there - low end #1C quality against legit topline comp. But he's really fallen off defensively the past few years and has turned himself mostly into a PP specialist.

you can really see the dramatic drop off in his on ice numbers:

15-16: 50.7xgf%, +0.2rel (1st line C duty)
16-17: 52.7xgf%, +2.8rel (co-1st line C duty)
17-18: 47.1xgf%, -4.6rel (2nd line C duty)
18-19: 50.2xgf% , -1.7rel (slight improvement due to dropping to easier 3rd line comp)
19-20: 46.8xgf%, -7.1rel (back up to 2nd line C)
20-21: 51.4xgf%, -2.7rel (2nd line C)

at ages 25 and 26 there he had really turned himself into a legit very good borderline #1C.

but a big drop off starting at age 27, which isn't hugely surprising for an undersized guy who plays his style, especially since his skating was never great and he's lost a step since then too.

Of course, he's getting to feed off huge minutes on an elite PP unit (with the worst points per minutes of anyone on that top PP unit), so it's still letting him put up pretty sexy offensive numbers for now.

 

[Critical13]

I have watched so many completely different groups of players fail in this same jersey. I am starting to wonder if it’s not an organization/fan base thing.

No, there are some legit cases where we really do trade away someone and there’s real regret. Steen was a good example. Rask, too. I don’t miss Kadri and Kapanen int he same way I missed those guys.

 

[Critical13]

Kadri was legit very good for a couple years there - low end #1C quality against legit topline comp. But he's really fallen off defensively the past few years and has turned himself mostly into a PP specialist.

you can really see the dramatic drop off in his on ice numbers:

15-16: 50.7xgf%, +0.2rel (1st line C duty)
16-17: 52.7xgf%, +2.8rel (co-1st line C duty)
17-18: 47.1xgf%, -4.6rel (2nd line C duty)
18-19: 50.2xgf% , -1.7rel (slight improvement due to dropping to easier 3rd line comp)
19-20: 46.8xgf%, -7.1rel (back up to 2nd line C)
20-21: 51.4xgf%, -2.7rel (2nd line C)

at ages 25 and 26 there he had really turned himself into a legit very good borderline #1C.

but a big drop off starting at age 27, which isn't hugely surprising for an undersized guy who plays his style, especially since his skating was never great and he's lost a step since then too.

Of course, he's getting to feed off huge minutes on an elite PP unit (with the worst points per minutes of anyone on that top PP unit), so it's still letting him put up pretty sexy offensive numbers for now.

I remember 16-17, stats match the eye test that year. He was great. Very different player by the time we traded him, as your numbers show.

 

[Leafs87]

No, there are some legit cases where we really do trade away someone and there’s real regret. Steen was a good example. Rask, too. I don’t miss Kadri and Kapanen int he same way I missed those guys.

Yes and players who thrive elsewhere. Meant more so why can’t they thrive here.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is why the IT guy never gets promoted to management.

Yet teams consistently invest in analytics.

How many teams are investing in fans' eye-tests again?

 

[Critical13]

Yet teams consistently invest in analytics.

How many teams are investing in fans' eye-tests again?

Notnto mention the huge disparity between average HFboard posters and professional hockey executives in terms of ability to assess based on the eye test.

While we’re all dickin around at work these guys are spending hours and hours poring over film, practice, etc.

 

[Leafs87]

Yet teams consistently invest in analytics.

How many teams are investing in fans' eye-tests again?

Yeha not to mention management rarely makes a decision alone now. Especially one of this magnitude.

They must usually pitch the idea to senior management and executive brass. They will want stats on why it’s the right decision. The return was great for a player who all stats prove he’s an average 3rd line player. At this point you can’t say “his stats may say this, but god damn he’s a player, just look at him on the ice”.

These advanced stats are things most posters can’t understand, so they dismiss them.

 

[zeke]

These advanced stats are things most posters can’t understand, so they dismiss them.

The funny thing is that they are so simple.

"Is this player on the ice for more and better scoring chances for his team or against his team?"

That's all.

 

[killer1980]

Analytics work in baseball but not in sports where emotion is the overriding reason for success.

 

[zeke]

The main advanced stat to moving Kappy and AJ were their cap hits. Off ice issues could also have played a role for Kappy but if somebody wants to tell me that we are a better team with Hyman and Soup playing on the 3rd line in place of Kappy and AJ (and Hyman on the 1st line), I do not agree.

The only question is whether Kapanen and johnsson are better than thornton/vesey/robertson/engvall/Anderson.

We'll see how that shakes out.

Johnsson is struggling to start the year on NJ's 3rd line, even with plenty of PP time too.

 

[ToneDog]

Analytics work in baseball but not in sports where emotion is the overriding reason for success.

Analytics are all great but at the end of the day, it should not be the end all and be all. Just ask the Rays who took out their ace in a must win game and it emploded in their face.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Analytics are all great but at the end of the day, it should not be the end all and be all. Just ask the Rays who took out their ace in a must win game and it emploded in their face.

the team who made it to the world series with the 28th highest payroll in the league is actually a case in favour of analytics

 

[ToneDog]

The only question is whether Kapanen and johnsson are better than thornton/vesey/robertson/engvall/Anderson.

We'll see how that shakes out.

Johnsson is struggling to start the year on NJ's 3rd line, even with plenty of PP time too.

Other than Robbie's potential I take AJ and Kappy over that lot any day. Clear to me that AJ and Kappy are not moved if cap space was not needed. If you cannot admit that, I do not know what else there is to say.

The Kappy trade worked out but we are in win now mode. Rodin can't help you for another 2-3 years.

 

[ToneDog]

the team who made it to the world series with the 28th highest payroll in the league is actually a case in favour of analytics

Agreed but it cannot be the end all and be all. As things stand in baseball, you and me can manage teams because managers are now being told what to do by the analytics department.