How many goals for Ovechkin this season?

[Bear of Bad News]

I'd assume he/she is plotting how many goals Ovi has scored during his career in entire particular season based on how many goals he scores in the first 17 goals per season. R² 0.27 is not bad given what we're measuring (the volatility of it), but it still is.. well.. volatile.

Perhaps. I'm a PhD mathematician and I'd like to see exactly what he's doing.

 

[ellja3]

Perhaps. I'm a PhD mathematician and I'd like to see exactly what he's doing.

I have higher education in math also, but given what he/she has posted, above is my assumption.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I have higher education in math also, but given what he/she has posted, above is my assumption.

Understood. I'd rather not assume - if they post what they did, we can critique it for good or bad.

 

[gtrower]

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

I get what you’re saying, history would say his shooting percentage would decline. He’s currently at 21.7 and his career is at 13.0 percent. A few thoughts about that.

- Scoring is up relative to the rest of his career. You’d expect his shooting percentage to be higher than average.

- He had stick issues last year with his company discontinuing his stick. He seems to have figured that out.

- His game has changed. I don’t have stats to back it up, but I’d expect them to show that his average distance from net for each shot has decreased relative to his prime. Closer to net should equate to higher shooting percentage.

- Ovi Strome Protas is arguably the best line in hockey right now.

- Caps PP production has been unsustainably low. You’d expect that to rebound and counteract some of the S% regression.

All that to say I agree regression is likely - 63+48 pace is absurd at his age and the accompanying PT bid would probably have him in Hart discussions. But I wouldn’t be so quick to say he’ll “regress hard.” Based on eye test of him, the line, and the team I’d honestly be a bit surprised if he doesn’t end up within a handful of goals either direction of 50.

 

[Xelebes]

Please show the calculation you're using that results in your "on pace" conclusion.

It will be easier to discuss.

The chart. Note the goals are the pace for at 82, with numbers extended for shortened seasons.

Season​	Goals @ 17​	Goals @ 82 (Projected)​
1​	13​	52​
2​	12​	46​
3​	11​	65​
4​	8​	56​
5​	16​	50​
6​	9​	32​
7​	7​	38​
8​	8​	55​
9​	14​	51​
10​	8​	53​
11​	9​	50​
12​	8​	33​
13​	13​	49​
14​	12​	51​
15​	13​	57​
16​	7​	35​
17​	12​	50​
18​	8​	42​
19​	5​	31​

Then it's a simple linear regression.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I appreciate it - thank you.

 

[Czechboy]

I severely underestimated him!

 

[AD1066]

I severely underestimated him!

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders:

1. Never get involved in a land war in Asia
2. Never go against Ovechkin when the Richard is on the line

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

I think he’s pretty washed and the playoffs showed that. He can go through the motions and hit 25 still but he will be a total black hole most of the time he’s on the ice.

Wanna try again?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Wanna try again?

We don't need people cherry picking and dunking on old responses in this thread.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Except you do, this isn't 2010-2016 anymore, goals are way up.

Sam Reinhart shot just under 25% last Season to score 57 goals, he's above that so far this season.

Ovy shot 11% last season during the worst dry spell of his career, 15-16% is easily doable the rest of the way and would get him 40+ goals on the season.

And Sam Reinhart got insanely lucky last season (and is right now). It almost certainly won’t be repeated (unless he’s able to win the lottery twice in a row). He’s due for a big regression.

I didn’t mean it never happens. There are always outliers with everything. I meant rhetorically for an individual it’s near impossible. They’ll be lucky if it happens once in their career. Most players do not ever shoot above 20% even their luckiest year.

We agree 15-16% is very possible, and that would get Ovechkin to 40-45 goals, which is what I predicted.

 

[Dingo]

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders:

1. Never get involved in a land war in Asia
2. Never go against Ovechkin when the Richard is on the line

still, this is pretty incontheevable

 

[Czechboy]

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders:

1. Never get involved in a land war in Asia
2. Never go against Ovechkin when the Richard is on the line

It's rare I read Princess Bride quotes on HF. Thank you for that!

 

[gtrower]

And Sam Reinhart got insanely lucky last season (and is right now). It almost certainly won’t be repeated (unless he’s able to win the lottery twice in a row). He’s due for a big regression.

I didn’t mean it never happens. There are always outliers with everything. I meant rhetorically for an individual it’s near impossible. They’ll be lucky if it happens once in their career. Most players do not ever shoot above 20% even their luckiest year.

We agree 15-16% is very possible, and that would get Ovechkin to 40-45 goals, which is what I predicted.

Again, I get your general premise but don’t really agree with your conclusion of 40-45 goals being the result with regression back to 15-16%.

He’s sitting at 13 goals with 65 games remaining. He’s currently shooting 21.7% over 60 shots thru the 17 games (3.53 spg). That’s well below his career average of 4.63 spg. There has been a noticeable dip in his spg over the last 3 years (4.47 to 4.03 to 3.44 to 3.53 this year) which coincides with a dip in average ice time (20:34 to 20:12 to 19:13 to 17:49 this year).

But using his current spg of 3.53 and assuming he plays all 82 games that’s about 230 more shots this year. If he regresses to shooting 15% over those future shots that’s 34.4 more goals. If he regresses to 16% that’s 36.7 more goals. Meaning he’d finish with 47-50.

So even if we’re assuming that his ice time and spg remain steady (which are both well below his career averages and more recent 3 year averages) and his shooting percentage regresses by over 25% (not unreasonable) you’d have to predict that he misses significant time (10ish games) to fall to the 40-45 range.

 

[Bounces R Way]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858343612163190958

 

[pezpunk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858343612163190958

It’s the old “Greetings from Ovechkin Island” meme except it was during a 2 on 1, haha.

 

[kugelbahn]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858343612163190958

I noticed that gesture by Sammy, I thought he was saying Hi to his old buddy

 

[Bender Duster]

He won't keep this pace up, but he's breaking the record this season.

Will it happen when the Caps play the Jets in Winnipeg on March 25?

Asking for a friend...

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

Will it happen when the Caps play the Jets in Winnipeg on March 25?

Asking for a friend...

I really hope so as I have 4 tickets a few rows up from behind the Caps bench. That would be insane to see live.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Again, I get your general premise but don’t really agree with your conclusion of 40-45 goals being the result with regression back to 15-16%.

He’s sitting at 13 goals with 65 games remaining. He’s currently shooting 21.7% over 60 shots thru the 17 games (3.53 spg). That’s well below his career average of 4.63 spg. There has been a noticeable dip in his spg over the last 3 years (4.47 to 4.03 to 3.44 to 3.53 this year) which coincides with a dip in average ice time (20:34 to 20:12 to 19:13 to 17:49 this year).

But using his current spg of 3.53 and assuming he plays all 82 games that’s about 230 more shots this year. If he regresses to shooting 15% over those future shots that’s 34.4 more goals. If he regresses to 16% that’s 36.7 more goals. Meaning he’d finish with 47-50.

So even if we’re assuming that his ice time and spg remain steady (which are both well below his career averages and more recent 3 year averages) and his shooting percentage regresses by over 25% (not unreasonable) you’d have to predict that he misses significant time (10ish games) to fall to the 40-45 range.

I’m talking about a regression to a 15-16% for the season, not 15-16% for future shots.

That’s somewhere between about 43-48 goals based on his current pace of the amount of shots he takes per game.

He’s going to hit a spell where he can’t find the net. He’s getting some luck now with shots going in that probably shouldn’t. That’s how this stuff usually goes.

 

[TheGuiminator]

My prediction before the season still holds up - something between 40 and 44 goals seems well within reach, and even 50 goals wouldn’t surprise me.

However, there’s nothing genius about my prediction; I just looked at the patterns. Ovechkin always bounces back after disappointing seasons (at least by his standards). Let’s take a look:

- Had a relatively weak finish in 2006-07 (22 pts in his last 30 games) → Then bounces back by sweeping every award in 2007-08.

- Bad season in 2011-12 → Wins the Hart & Richard the following season in 2013.

- Despite winning the Rocket, had a lackluster 2013-14 season with a -35 → Wins the Rocket, is a Hart finalist, and a 1st-team All-Star the following season in 2014-15.

- Weak 2016-17 season (69 points, 33 goals) → Wins the Rocket, Conn Smythe, and the Cup the following season.

- Disappointing COVID-shortened season (below point-per-game, injuries) → The year after, he’s leading the league in points and goals over McDavid and Draisaitl halfway through the season. Ends up with an excellent 50-40-90 stat line.

- Last year was arguably the worst season of his career → This season, he’s on track to put up the best age-39 season of all time.