How many goals for Ovechkin this season?

[General Fanager]

33

 

[Breakers]

Looked good in the promotional video for the new screaming eagle jersey

Healthy and fit

Which is surprising as the photos he was captured in from the summer, he was damn morbidly obese

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

After a cold start with a new coach, he finished with 23 goals in his final 36 games last year. That's a 52 goal pace.

If he's healthy I think he's got a really good shot of breaking the record this season. I'd expect a healthy OV to pace for between 35-45 goals.

 

[CaptBrannigan]

31, if he plays 75 or more games. Major or lingering injury could reduce it of course.

 

[Fatass]

17. Caps are not a good club. OV will need to produce a lot on his own.

 

[Misery74]

37

Caps much improved club. Adding lots of scoring punch this offseason.

 

[BallardEra]

17. Caps are not a good club. OV will need to produce a lot on his own.

17?

Maybe if he misses a third or more of the season.

Even a guy like Doan hit 28:

Most NHL Goals By 39 Years Old | StatMuse

Gordie Howe has collected the most career goals by a 39-year-old player, with 39 scored.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Skullz]

38 for the Great Eight.

 

[EdJovanovski]

51

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

17. Caps are not a good club. OV will need to produce a lot on his own.

Man... I feel like the Caps actually made a ton of good moves over the offseason. Should be better than last season and I wouldn't be shocked to see Ovi in the 35-40 goal range.

 

[BallardEra]

21

Almost half way there.

17. Caps are not a good club. OV will need to produce a lot on his own.

Almost halfway there.

 

[filinski77]

Almost halfway there.

Maybe he meant McDavid will only score 21 this year

 

[JFedol]

49 goals this year, eclipses 900

Can't believe he's a mere 33 goals away tho

 

[BallardEra]

25 with about 450 shots sounds right. Below ppg and a -15 give or take

Almost halfway there in under 70 shots.

 

[Fantomas]

25 with about 450 shots sounds right. Below ppg and a -15 give or take

Sorry for your loss.

 

[Fred22406Capsfan]

17. Caps are not a good club. OV will need to produce a lot on his own.

This hasn't aged well. Ways to go yet but....

 

[SimpleJack]

Gonna say Eightyyyyy....seven. 87 goals. Why not? Maybe he's only just now heating up.

 

[Xelebes]

He's on pace for 52 goals for this season.

Basically comparing the first 17 games from each season he played and just mapping it on. The R² is 0.27.

 

[Demandedace]

This thread is an extremely entertaining read

 

[pezpunk]

He's on pace for 52 goals for this season.

Basically comparing the first 17 games from each season he played and just mapping it on. The R² is 0.27.

By regular math he's currently on pace for 63 goals / 111 points with a +/- of +63.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

 

[Xelebes]

By regular math he's currently on pace for 63 goals / 111 points with a +/- of +63.

I am using regular math. I'm just looking at what the first 17 games each season looks like for Ovechkin and what that means for the whole season. It's simple really.

Also to remark, Ovechkin has been extremely consistent his whole career.

 

[torniojaws]

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

Edit:
I don't mean this as a bad thing. It obviously works for Washington.

 

[pezpunk]

I am using regular math. I'm just looking at what the first 17 games each season looks like for Ovechkin and what that means for the whole season. It's simple really.

Also to remark, Ovechkin has been extremely consistent his whole career.

yeah you said in the other thread.

you're using garbage data.

what Ovechkin did 20 years is pretty worthless in terms of trying to model his current play.

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

that would be a pretty minor regression and a phenomenal season -- and more than almost anyone here was predicting.

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

if that were true, i'd expect his shooting percentage to be lower or at best the same, as they forced the puck to him and he forced shots. You'd also expect the team to be not very good if they were sacrificing sound, smart hockey for the sake of a record.

But that narrative doesn't match the reality of the Caps being 2nd in the NHL in win percentage, let alone work as an explanation for the increase in shooting percentage.

What it looks like to me is Carbery's system is generating lots of extremely high quality chances, and not just for Ovechkin. Connor McMichael, who plays on the second line, is only one goal behind the league leaders with 12 goals.

 

[Xelebes]

yeah you said in the other thread.

you're using garbage data.

what Ovechkin did 20 years is worthless in terms of trying to model his current play.



that would be a pretty minor regression and a phenomenal season -- and more than almost anyone here was predicting.

And the first 17 games don't matter for the rest of the season. Your data is just as much garbage. You see how we can both play this game?