How many goals for Ovechkin this season?

[pezpunk]

And the first 17 games don't matter for the rest of the season. Your data is just as much garbage. You see how we can both play this game?

i do see how we can both say things, but only one of us is making sense.

One of us is using a recent sample of data. The other is polluting their calculation with data generated by an entirely different player on an entirely different team in practically a different era, and pretending it's just as relevant as recent data. It's rather silly.

also one of us just invented a new definition of "pace" out of thin air, so there's that.

 

[TimeZone]

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

I don't think anyone genuinely expects Ovechkin to score 63 goals at age 39.

That said, his shooting % is high, but not insanely so.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

How?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't think anyone genuinely expects Ovechkin to score 63 goals at age 39.

That said, his shooting % is high, but not insanely so.

He’s shooting 6.3% more than he’s ever shot in a season. That seems insanely high.

If a number in the low 20’s isn’t insanely high, I don’t know what is. You don’t see players shooting like 25% or higher over large samples because NHL goalies just don’t struggle stopping 75% or more of the shots they face over large samples.

 

[TimeZone]

He’s shooting 6.3% more than he’s ever shot in a season. That seems insanely high.

If a number in the low 20’s isn’t insanely high, I don’t know what is. You don’t see players shooting like 25% or higher over large samples because NHL goalies just don’t struggle stopping 75% or more of the shots they face over large samples.

Except you do, this isn't 2010-2016 anymore, goals are way up.

Sam Reinhart shot just under 25% last Season to score 57 goals, he's above that so far this season.

Ovy shot 11% last season during the worst dry spell of his career, 15-16% is easily doable the rest of the way and would get him 40+ goals on the season.

 

[Xelebes]

i do see how we can both say things, but only one of us is making sense.

One of us is using a recent sample of data. The other is polluting their calculation with data generated by an entirely different player on an entirely different team in practically a different era, and pretending it's just as relevant as recent data. It's rather silly.

also one of us just invented a new definition of "pace" out of thin air, so there's that.

Well consider that you might want to contrast how he has played each season. So we are factoring in last year. we are also factoring his oldest year. And when we compare those data, they largely reflect the same thing. He has a higher production of goals at the start of the season than the rest of the season. It is consistent and is reflected in the vast majority of the seasons he has played. It would be foolish to not factor that in.

You want to take a simple statistic and do a very naïve projection based off of that. I'm trying to add some nuance to it. The numbers are roughly similar, with mine being a bit lower than yours.

 

[carjackmalone]

He will be entering his age 38 season. How many goals do you predict for him this season?


Most goals age 38 season:

1. Brett Hull - 37
2. Johnny Bucyk - 31
3. Martin St. Louis - 30
4. Joe Pavelski - 28

Wasn’t Geordie Howe 40 years old in68-69 scoring 44 goals?

 

[User9992]

Wasn’t Horfoe Howe 50 years old in68-69 scoring 44 goals?

Howe had 106 points when he was 40 years old.

Ovi is already 39.

 

[PlushMinus]

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

Haha you obviously don't follow the Caps and don't even watch them play.

They are quite "clearly" NOT playing in support of breaking the record. They are playing to win as many games as possible to finish as high in the standings as possible.

The team is night and day different to last year's.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Haha you obviously don't follow the Caps and don't even watch them play.

They are quite "clearly" NOT playing in support of breaking the record. They are playing to win as many games as possible to finish as high in the standings as possible.

The team is night and day different to last year's.

True, but i think it's also fair to say those two things go hand in hand. Never understood the logic of "lol they're just going to build a roster to make sure Ovechkin gets there"

If you're building a team to break the record, you are by definition an improvement over last year's weird mishmash of young guys, hangers on and dudes who couldn't skate anymore

Ovie pushes for record, which means Ovie is scoring more, which is a net positive for the Caps.

 

[User9992]

True, but i think it's also fair to say those two things go hand in hand. Never understood the logic of "lol they're just going to build a roster to make sure Ovechkin gets there"

If you're building a team to break the record, you are by definition an improvement over last year's weird mishmash of young guys, hangers on and dudes who couldn't skate anymore

Ovie pushes for record, which means Ovie is scoring more, which is a net positive for the Caps.

Ovi has highest +/— among forwards not named 'Kaprizov' this season.

 

[User9992]

The most interesting thing for me is will Ovi reach 1700 points before he leaves in 2026.

He has 1573 points & has 65 games remaing this season & entire next season.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

It's very rare, but it is possible. When you have the goal scoring talent Ovechkin does, it is absolutely in the realm of possibility, and even if he doesn't keep up that shooting percentage, ending up with 40+ goals after the way the 1st half of last season went is a massive home run for the Caps (And he's playing a much more complete game to boot).

 

[Caps8112]

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

what would Washington doing what they are supposed to do as a team look like? Yes, im sure management is happy Ovi is likely happy and the record is a goal. Im sure as far as the GMs job goes, he is more happy that all of these moves he made this summer appear to have them a lot better than they were last year.

 

[BallardEra]

Yes, in normal circumstances. But Washington is clearly playing in support of breaking the record, which skews the result compared to normal shooting.

So is this the part where the goal posts are being moved?

He currently is tied for league goals lead and is playing well.

Perhaps the Caps should drop him to the third line and put Vrana in his spot?

 

[Richard]

I'm a penguin fan and I've gone through periods when I hated the guy (christ I was a young guy and way too into hockey) but I am so rooting for Ovy to pass Wayne.

Love to see records broke in my lifetime.

 

[Midnight Judges]

And the first 17 games don't matter for the rest of the season. Your data is just as much garbage. You see how we can both play this game?

I'm not understanding why (13/17) * 82 wouldn't be the equation for pace here.

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

While I don't expect him to finish with 63 goals and 110+ points, the eye test shows him playing quite well, as is the team around him.

I too expect him to regress, but I don't expect him to regress "hard." 45 goals / 85 points seems pretty reasonable at this point. That would be one of the best age 39 and up seasons of all time.

 

[1specter]

Hate to break it to people, but he’s gonna regress hard. He’s shooting about double what he did last season.

It is very rare to see anyone put up a season above 20% shooting, even the best shooter of all time.

Most likely he ends up with like 40-45 goals this season.

I mean this is a Captain obvious take no? I don't think anyone seriously expects him to score 60+. If he gets to 42 he breaks the record anyways

 

[LevelingSolo]

Don’t think anyone actually expects him to hit 60 but 50 looks possible

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Don’t think anyone actually expects him to hit 60 but 50 looks possible

yeah I think breaking 50 is realistic and would just add to his incredible career by breaking the tie with Gretzky and Bossy for most 50 goal seasons. Although obviously Bossy could've had way more if not for injuries shortening his career.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

And the first 17 games don't matter for the rest of the season. Your data is just as much garbage. You see how we can both play this game?

Please show the calculation you're using that results in your "on pace" conclusion.

It will be easier to discuss.

 

[Rebels57]

He won't keep this pace up, but he's breaking the record this season.

 

[AD1066]

yeah I think breaking 50 is realistic and would just add to his incredible career by breaking the tie with Gretzky and Bossy for most 50 goal seasons. Although obviously Bossy could've had way more if not for injuries shortening his career.

He deserves it, given the relative scarcity of 50-goal seasons today compared to the 80s.

Ovechkin is responsible for 25% of all 50-goal seasons that have occurred during his career.

 

[ellja3]

Please show the calculation you're using that results in your "on pace" conclusion.

It will be easier to discuss.

I'd assume he/she is plotting how many goals Ovi has scored during his career in entire particular season based on how many goals he scores in the first 17 goals per season. R² 0.27 is not bad given what we're measuring (the volatility of it), but it still is.. well.. volatile.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

He deserves it, given the relative scarcity of 50-goal seasons today compared to the 80s.

Ovechkin is responsible for 25% of all 50-goal seasons that have occurred during his career.

yeah and he's also been screwed out of at least 2 more 50 goal seasons. lockout and covid shortened seasons would've easily been 50 goals for him.