How many goals for Ovechkin this season?

[coooldude]

I watched him live once each in the past two years, granted this past year it was before his end of season tear.

If the end of season tear is indicative of where he starts the year, then he scores over 30. You have to believe that he was injured and/or came into camp horrendously out of shape and then got better as the season went on. It's harder and harder to do that as an old guy, but Ovie has always been an outlier.

I still think it's more likely that he finishes closer to 20-25, because every time I've watched him, live or on TV, in the past two years, he has looked barely replacement level and like the bottom is falling out (like the first half of last year). But it would be foolish to guarantee it given how he finished the year. So there's still a chance with the record.

 

[Stylizer1]

He will get 50 goals over the next 2 seasons.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I watched him live once each in the past two years, granted this past year it was before his end of season tear.

If the end of season tear is indicative of where he starts the year, then he scores over 30. You have to believe that he was injured and/or came into camp horrendously out of shape and then got better as the season went on. It's harder and harder to do that as an old guy, but Ovie has always been an outlier.

At this point it's known Ovie started last season with a back injury.

His final 36 game pace of 50+ goals and 80 points per 82 GP is not much different than the pace he played at for the previous two seasons (42 goals in 73 games and 50 goals in 7 games).

 

[LokiDog]

38 goals.

 

[wetcoast]

At this point it's known Ovie started last season with a back injury.

Is it?

I did a quick google search and couldn't find any mention of it, what I did find was very interesting though with this review.

Maybe you have a source?

most of us saw a guy who just couldn't keep up and aside from scoring which he regained back for a stretch the rest of his NHL game is really below average at this point.

Alex Ovechkin: 2023-24 season review

Alex Ovechkin ended the season with 31 goals. What you think of that total depends on where you started from. By the…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

His final 36 game pace of 50+ goals and 80 points per 82 GP is not much different than the pace he played at for the previous two seasons (42 goals in 73 games and 50 goals in 7 games).

Pace....well that's actually really funny isn't it?

 

[Leafshater67]

Yeah, watch any caps game from last season and focus just on Ovi. He just kind of floats around.

Don’t you dare say that! He’s just as good as he ever was!

I sure ruffled some feathers from the stat watchers lol… Ovie is washed.

Is it?

I did a quick google search and couldn't find any mention of it, what I did find was very interesting though with this review.

Maybe you ahve a source?

most of us saw a guy who just couldn't keep up and aside from scoring which he regained back for a stretch the rest of his NHL game is really below average at this point.

View attachment 904533

Alex Ovechkin: 2023-24 season review

Alex Ovechkin ended the season with 31 goals. What you think of that total depends on where you started from. By the…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Pace....well that's actually really funny isn't it?

It’s sad but true. Stat watchers and/or those who have never played or coached at a high level will never understand.

Never thought I’d offend so many people when I suggested he is past his prime, about to turn 39 and isn’t the player he once was.

The eye test shows me an old player with still a world class shot, great hands and awareness but one that can’t keep up with the play and cheats offensively / gets sheltered minutes to match towards a record. He’s essentially a PP specialist but getting more minutes to get a milestone. It’s crazy how well Sid has been able to adapt his game as he’s gotten older and slower tbh.

Another year older and he’s looking pretty chunky in the off-season. I hope he does it but I’ll be shocked if he scores 40+ like some of those guys seem to think. It’s time to get real.

 

[Fantomas]

I’ll be shocked if he scores 40+ like some of those guys seem to think. It’s time to get real.

If you do happen to get "shocked," will we see you again here?

Seems Ovechkin has been shocking people over and over again for the past 10-12 years. He's always washed up until he isn't. And it's always crickets from the critics when it happens.

 

[wetcoast]

If you do happen to get "shocked," will we see you again here?

Seems Ovechkin has been shocking people over and over again for the past 10-12 years. He's always washed up until he isn't. And it's always crickets from the critics when it happens.

Maybe that's because since his 3 year peak that ended in 2010 he hasn't been an elite overall player but an elite goal scorer sure but a couple of his fan boys keep thinking it's 2009 still to this day.

What exactly did the poster that you are quoting have wrong?

Don’t you dare say that! He’s just as good as he ever was!

I sure ruffled some feathers from the stat watchers lol… Ovie is washed.

It’s sad but true. Stat watchers and/or those who have never played or coached at a high level will never understand.

Never thought I’d offend so many people when I suggested he is past his prime, about to turn 39 and isn’t the player he once was.

The eye test shows me an old player with still a world class shot, great hands and awareness but one that can’t keep up with the play and cheats offensively / gets sheltered minutes to match towards a record.

He’s essentially a PP specialist but getting more minutes to get a milestone. It’s crazy how well Sid has been able to adapt his game as he’s gotten older and slower tbh.

Another year older and he’s looking pretty chunky in the off-season. I hope he does it but I’ll be shocked if he scores 40+ like some of those guys seem to think. It’s time to get real.

I broke it down for you here but I doubt that we will get an answer just the usual drive by.

 

[ViD]

Is it?

I did a quick google search and couldn't find any mention of it, what I did find was very interesting though with this review.

Maybe you ahve a source?

most of us saw a guy who just couldn't keep up and aside from scoring which he regained back for a stretch the rest of his NHL game is really below average at this point.

View attachment 904533

Alex Ovechkin: 2023-24 season review

Alex Ovechkin ended the season with 31 goals. What you think of that total depends on where you started from. By the…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Pace....well that's actually really funny isn't it?

Have y’all seen the Caps roster last season ? It was beyond brutal

At 38, it’s much harder for him to carry the team, he needs some guys to do the defensive work for him and a playmaker like Backstrom / Kuzy

 

[Fantomas]

Maybe that's because since his 3 year peak that ended in 2010 he hasn't been an elite overall player but an elite goal scorer sure but a couple of his fan boys keep thinking it's 2009 still to this day.

I don't think so, Tim.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

31.

His time as a 50-goal scorer is definitely over, IMO. And I doubt he will even hit 40 in a season ever again.

But hitting more than 30 this season is very much within reach and would still be a remarkable achievement at his age, especially considering the roster surrouding him.

Exactly a year ago I made a successful prediction. Can't succeed two years in a row, can I?

I'm going with 20 for Ovechkin this year.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I think he goes nuts out and pots 34.

 

[wetcoast]

I don't think so, Tim.

Thanks for making my point.

 

[Randyne]

Maybe that's because since his 3 year peak that ended in 2010 he hasn't been an elite overall player but an elite goal scorer sure but a couple of his fan boys keep thinking it's 2009 still to this day.

He is #1 by goals, #2 by hardware and #3 by points since 2010-11.

 

[wetcoast]

He is #1 by goals, #2 by hardware and #3 by points since 2010-11.

Sure he is #1 in goals and #3 in points over that time frame but hardware is only if you want to double count goals again.

His single Hart win in that time frame (12-13) needs context as it was a shortened unbalanced schedule and he basically was lights out against one division and not very good against the other 2.

But that's not relevant to the discussion for this upcoming year as that's all history and his overall game has been aging, which happens to every player.

I'm also curious as to how many goals you think Ovi will get this year range wise?

I'm guessing 25-30

 

[Randyne]

Sure he is #1 in goals and #3 in points over that time frame but hardware is only if you want to double count goals again.

His single Hart win in that time frame (12-13) needs context as it was a shortened unbalanced schedule and he basically was lights out against one division and not very good against the other 2.

But that's not relevant to the discussion for this upcoming year as that's all history and his overall game has been aging, which happens to every player.

You brought here 'since 2010'.
12-13 needs context he played in KHL, and had to readjust to NHL, it took a while, he could sweep all awards again.
So Rockets, Hart, Smythe, was robbed another Hart. You said he wasn't elite but he was.
Also last year was robbed 4-5 goals too.

 

[wetcoast]

You brought here 'since 2010'.

Sure that's when his peak ended and go back and look at the context it was in response to someone being shocked if Ovi scored 40 goals this upcoming season which is extremely unlikely right?

12-13 needs context he played in KHL, and had to readjust to NHL, it took a while, he could sweep all awards again.

Go back and look at the splits and yes he was in the KHL with Backstrom how is that a negative for the 12-13 season?

So Rockets, Hart, Smythe, was robbed another Hart. You said he wasn't elite but he was.

He wasn't elite in that time frame outside of goal scoring, his one Hart needs a ton of context and which other Hart was he robbed of exactly 14-15 when he had 28 assists that year?

Hart voters have been overly generous to Ovi over the years.

Also last year was robbed 4-5 goals too.

Every sniper gets robbed of goals, Austin had 20 combined posts and crossbars last season.

Anyway back to the upcoming season any goal predictions?

 

[Randyne]

Every sniper gets robbed of goals, Austin had 20 combined posts and crossbars last season.

why you are comparing robbing with missing the net?
It was a daylight robbery in the beginning. It was 'hot' goalscoring start for old Ovi but they just chopped his legs. He recovered only after the break. He could easily score 40+ goals.

how is that a negative for the 12-13 season?

different rink sizes makes everything differents.
readjusting took about 10 games his pgp was .5, after that it became 1.34, he 100% could sweep all awards again.

Hart voters have been overly generous to Ovi over the years.

Total BS. Many voters gave him last place when he was undeniably by far the best in the world during his peak.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

why you are comparing robbing with missing the net?
It was a daylight robbery in the beginning. It was 'hot' goalscoring start for old Ovi but they just chopped his legs. He recovered only after the break. He could easily score 40+ goals.


different rink sizes makes everything differents.
readjusting took about 10 games his pgp was .5, after that it became 1.34, he 100% could sweep all awards again.


Total BS. Many voters gave him last place when he was undeniably by far the best in the world during his peak.

Ovi fanboys will find the weirdest excuses/strangest arguments to paint Ovechkin in the best light possible

 

[NickyFotiu]

Really depends on how dedicated he is in the offseason imo. Last season vs the Rangers he did not look like he was in great shape. The skill was there but the effort had declined.

 

[boompuffboom]

needs a fire start to get 40+

im 50-50 if he breaks it this year...

 

[wetcoast]

why you are comparing robbing with missing the net?

Well one thing is verifiable, the other is open to way more interpretation but all snipers get robbed so it's most likely a wash at worst.

It was a daylight robbery in the beginning. It was 'hot' goalscoring start for old Ovi but they just chopped his legs. He recovered only after the break. He could easily score 40+ goals.

I watched a lot of his games last year his skating and effort level wasn't all that great.

40 goals eh okay let's watch and see but I'm thinking 25-30 even with premium ice time and usage.

different rink sizes makes everything differents.
readjusting took about 10 games his pgp was .5, after that it became 1.34, he 100% could sweep all awards again.

We will agree to disagree here as some players didn't play in russia, others did like Ovi with his linemate and he loaded up on scoring against a single division that unbalanced schedule one and wasn't MVP calibre in the other 2 at all.

Total BS. Many voters gave him last place when he was undeniably by far the best in the world during his peak.

Do you mean 5th place votes?

His voting has been very generous if one stops to look at it.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

Past few years a couple of trends have emerged in Ovechkin's usage/play

1) In the games Ovechkin dressed for the Caps he was on the ice for 28.28% of his teams 5v5 minutes which was a career low for him. If you look over the whole course of Ovechkin's career, four of his five season lows in terms of 5v5 ice time have happened since the 20-21 season.

2) He's starting his shifts less in defensive end at 5v5. Ever sinece the NHL has recorded when players started their shifts in 07-08 and between 19-20, Ovechkin started 8% to 11.6% of his 5v5 shifts in the defensive end (if you include shifts that start on the fly). Since 20-21, Ovechkin has started 2.98% to 4% of his 5v5 shifts in the DZ.

3) He's shooting the puck less at 5v5. Since the turn of the decade, Ovechkin has been shooting the puck at a lower rate than his average with last season being a career low rate for shots on net and shot attempts.

4) He's been playing a higher portion of his teams PP minutes. Ovechkin has played more than 90% of his teams in 7 of the 17 seasons this stat has been recorded. 6 of those 7 seasons have occured since the 18-19 season. Before, the 18-19 season, Ovechkin roughly played a little bit over 80% of the Caps 5v4 minutes with a few exceptions in both directions. In 23-24 he played in almost 97% (!!!) of the Caps 5v4 minutes beating his career high in 22-23

The Caps made a lot moves this off season and I wonder how much his this will effect his usage for the upcoming year.

 

[winnipegger]

If he plays over 70 games he will score 30+. It just seems impossible that he doesn't. If he scores 42, which is not at all impossible, he will set the record this year.

 

[BallardEra]

Past few years a couple of trends have emerged in Ovechkin's usage/play

1) In the games Ovechkin dressed for the Caps he was on the ice for 28.28% of his teams 5v5 minutes which was a career low for him. If you look over the whole course of Ovechkin's career, four of his five season lows in terms of 5v5 ice time have happened since the 20-21 season.

2) He's starting his shifts less in defensive end at 5v5. Ever sinece the NHL has recorded when players started their shifts in 07-08 and between 19-20, Ovechkin started 8% to 11.6% of his 5v5 shifts in the defensive end (if you include shifts that start on the fly). Since 20-21, Ovechkin has started 2.98% to 4% of his 5v5 shifts in the DZ.

3) He's shooting the puck less at 5v5. Since the turn of the decade, Ovechkin has been shooting the puck at a lower rate than his average with last season being a career low rate for shots on net and shot attempts.

4) He's been playing a higher portion of his teams PP minutes. Ovechkin has played more than 90% of his teams in 7 of the 17 seasons this stat has been recorded. 6 of those 7 seasons have occured since the 18-19 season. Before, the 18-19 season, Ovechkin roughly played a little bit over 80% of the Caps 5v4 minutes with a few exceptions in both directions. In 23-24 he played in almost 97% (!!!) of the Caps 5v4 minutes beating his career high in 22-23

The Caps made a lot moves this off season and I wonder how much his this will effect his usage for the upcoming year.

Are you shocked by this? He’s almost 39 years old.

If Auston Matthews eventually chases down Gretzky and Ovechkin, someone else will be posting the EXACT same thing about him.

Colour me shocked!