How good do we think we are?

[Reality Czech]

I think the winner of the Blues/Colorado series would be down to who is better on goal. If it’s even, Colorado probably has the edge.

Here’s a crazy prediction: the Blues are solid in net this year, but it’s largely to Husso reverting the narrative to him being the better prospect between him and Binnington. He steals the net and the Blues have another tricky off-season decision in goal.

I was going to post the same prediction Yappi, but you beat me to it! Would love for him to prove me wrong, but I am not sold on Binnington as a top tier goalie at this time. But I feel like Husso is going to surprise a lot of people this year and end up starting a lot more games than some would expect.

Regarding STL/COL, I agree we are in a similar goaltending situation and I think our D groups are fairly close overall. The only reason I give Colorado the edge is their forward group, which I feel is more dangerous than ours. MacKinnon is the most dominant player in the world right now. While I really like our forwards overall, all of our guys tend to go through ups and downs in terms of production but you know MacKinnon will be a threat to score every game (and every shift). With game-breaking talent like Mac, Makar, Rantanen + a very dangerous supporting cast, they can overwhelm teams with their offense. That's pretty scary for any team, let alone one with 3 offense-first D-men like the Blues have. We have enough offense to put up goals as well, so it will come down to which defense and goalie plays best.

 

[simon IC]

I was going to post the same prediction Yappi, but you beat me to it! Would love for him to prove me wrong, but I am not sold on Binnington as a top tier goalie at this time. But I feel like Husso is going to surprise a lot of people this year and end up starting a lot more games than some would expect.

Regarding STL/COL, I agree we are in a similar goaltending situation and I think our D groups are fairly close overall. The only reason I give Colorado the edge is their forward group, which I feel is more dangerous than ours. MacKinnon is the most dominant player in the world right now. While I really like our forwards overall, all of our guys tend to go through ups and downs in terms of production but you know MacKinnon will be a threat to score every game (and every shift). With game-breaking talent like Mac, Makar, Rantanen + a very dangerous supporting cast, they can overwhelm teams with their offense. That's pretty scary for any team, let alone one with 3 offense-first D-men like the Blues have. We have enough offense to put up goals as well, so it will come down to which defense and goalie plays best.

I agree with your assessment of how we compare to Colorado. I think it will come down to goaltending.

 

[Reality Czech]

I agree with your assessment of how we compare to Colorado. I think it will come down to goaltending.

That's fair, though I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to. I think I only have 3 people on my list, so it takes a lot for me to give someone that honor. I just can't stand it when someone feels the need to repeat their opinion over and over again, and turns every thread into their own personal soapbox. The Petro talk lately has been insufferable. The facts from both sides are out there, we've all given our opinions so I don't see the need to debate it anymore. Mainly, I just don't want people killing my vibe maaaaaaan.

 

[simon IC]

That's fair, though I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to. I think I only have 3 people on my list, so it takes a lot for me to give someone that honor. I just can't stand it when someone feels the need to repeat their opinion over and over again, and turns every thread into their own personal soapbox. The Petro talk lately has been insufferable. The facts from both sides are out there, we've all given our opinions so I don't see the need to debate it anymore. Mainly, I just don't want people killing my vibe maaaaaaan.

Completely fair. I don't think there is any benefit in pursuing the subject, but I do want to make clear that I value your input. On to next season!

 

[Honeycutt]

This team is deep, was tempted to put us in the top 3, but a couple of question marks are there at the start of the season. We are definitely a contender and could be the top team in the west. Pumped for the 56 game season and new divisional format!

 

[Falco Lombardi]

A lot better? How so? Makar is unproven defensively against top end forwards. EJ is a really good #2 guy, and the rest are just solid. They are in the top 5-10 in the league for D cores, but so is ours. Pretending that they are on another level than ours is simply not true.

Devin Toews is better than just solid and I think Girard is as well. I’d put both over EJ.

I don’t think their core is worlds better, but I do think it’s slightly better now and will definitely be going forward in 3ish years.

If the Blues have an advantage, it’ll be in net if Binnington is more the guy from 2019 and not 2020

 

[Brian39]

Wow, such an amazing D core right there...How are we ever going to compete with Colorado?

And I see how you conclude that Binner is a "flash in the pan" and how the Blues will need to figure their goaltending out again without providing any real evidence to support that. In the meantime, Colorado does have question marks in goal, which you never addressed either in your comparison of the two teams. The reality is, Binnington is a proven playoff goaltender, and Colorado is still looking for that guy.

Grubauer has a playoff SV% of .924 in his 2 seasons with Colorado and was .920+ in each of those 2 seasons. He has a .916 regular season SV% over that same stretch.

Binner had a .914 SV% en route to the Cup and followed that up with a disasterously bad .854 last year.

Binner has had a negative GSAA in each of his 2 playoff seasons while Grubauer was positive in both of his.

Their backup/1B was great in the regular season last year with a .923 SV% and then struggled in the playoffs when Grubauer got hurt. He played 4 games against Dallas before going to the press box with injury and the team later announced that he was injured during the round robin games and was only playing because Grubauer got hurt. Our backup has no NHL experience.

I really don't understand how goaltending is a huge question mark for the Avs but not for us. Their goaltending issues in the playoffs last year were 100% injury related. Grubauer was playing very well before suffering a season-ending injury. This play was on par with his very-well performance the year before and only slightly higher than his pretty damn good regular season career. He's not an elite goalie, but he is solid. That's about what Binner is. Binner has shown that he can play big when the games matter most, but he also showed in these past playoffs that he can also implode in those moments.

Edit: for the record, I don't believe goaltending is a huge question mark for us. There is a chance that Binner was a flash in the pan and falls apart, but that is kind of the nature of the position. I think he is an average starter who can handle a large workload. My point is not that our goaltending is liekly bottom 10, but that Colorado's situation is about on par with ours. They have an average starter who can not handle a large workload. However, they have a very good 1B that allows them to not ride Grubauer the way we ride Binner in the regular season.

 

[Brian39]

I'd take Colorado's blue line over any team in the league for this season.

Makar played 23:41 a night in the playoffs this year, which was 2 minutes more than any other D man on their roster. In 15 games he had 15 points, was +12 and 9 of his points came at even strength. He's not an elite shutdown guy, but he can more than hold his own against quality competition defensively and still dominate offensively. There is a very, very good reason that he won the Calder and finished 9th in Norris voting as a rookie. He is the real deal and is without question a top 20 NHL D man. He's top 10 on most lists.

Girard and Graves both surpassed EJ in ability this past season. They are both legit top 4 guys. As is Toews. There is a very solid argument that EJ is their 5th best D man going into this season. They have 5 guys who are all at least capable of being "the guy" on the 2nd pairing of a decent NHL team. Ian Cole is their 6th D man now. Timmons might be NHL ready, but won't be leaned on when they are healthy. Byram looks absolutely dominant for Canada right now, but probably won't make the NHL team this year.

They have a no-doubt top 20 NHL D man leading a unit that is hands down the best 2-6 group in the NHL. They are absolutely loaded at D. The scariest part about Colorado's future is that the group is young, cost controlled and they have the best D prospect in the world knocking on the door. But that doesn't change that it is already the best group in the league. It could be the best defense ever assembled in the cap era in 2-3 years and they could keep that group together for 5+ years. That remains to be seen. They aren't there yet, but they are already the best group in the league right now.

Edit: Makar, Graves, Cole, Girard and Toews all outscored each of our D besides Krug and Parayko last year. They got an exceptional amount of production from their blueline, but not at the expense of allowing goals. They were 6th in the NHL in GA per game last season (we were 5th). Considering the high-event brand of hockey that team plays, that is an amazing accomplishment.

 

[Brian39]

Triple Post!

I voted "Contender-one of the next best 5-6 teams in the league."

I think we are probably somewhere in the back half of that group and somewhere between 5th and 9th feels about right. Additionally, my belief is that the two favorites in the NHL are Tampa/Colorado and that there is a sizeable gap between them and the rest of the league. I also have Vegas ahead of the Blues in this same tier, although the Hoffman addition narrows that gap quite a bit. I might have us jump Vegas if Tarasenko returns and is 100% his old self by playoffs.

 

[SwivelSchwartz]

I went contender, especially if we get Tarasenko back. We could be the #3 team in the league and still not win more than 1 round

 

[BlueSeal]

Honestly, it depends on how Chief and his staff handle this group and how well this group gels. There's a lot of potential here, and it can really go in a number of directions.

I'm expecting us to be a better scoring team. Our lines are going to look insane if everyone comes in the door rocking and Hoffman's playing for a contract and the potential there for scoring because of it pleases me.

Our D is going to be interesting based on how coaching approaches it. If they approach it wrong or if this group is really lacking, expect high scoring games, even if Binny and Husso are rocking... Well, I expect them both to be. I expect Husso to elevate his game and be solid; I still believe that Husso is the real deal.

And ROR as Captain should help make this a good year.

In the end, I have no expectations. I've been mad at a few things and I feel I have a right to, so I'm going to be, whether I'm right, wrong or batsh-t. That doesn't change reality or where we're at now, that's up to this team and their management, and for that, all I can say is let's get another Cup.

Let's Go Blues.

 

[BlueMed]

I'd take Colorado's blue line over any team in the league for this season.

Makar played 23:41 a night in the playoffs this year, which was 2 minutes more than any other D man on their roster. In 15 games he had 15 points, was +12 and 9 of his points came at even strength. He's not an elite shutdown guy, but he can more than hold his own against quality competition defensively and still dominate offensively. There is a very, very good reason that he won the Calder and finished 9th in Norris voting as a rookie. He is the real deal and is without question a top 20 NHL D man. He's top 10 on most lists.

Girard and Graves both surpassed EJ in ability this past season. They are both legit top 4 guys. As is Toews. There is a very solid argument that EJ is their 5th best D man going into this season. They have 5 guys who are all at least capable of being "the guy" on the 2nd pairing of a decent NHL team. Ian Cole is their 6th D man now. Timmons might be NHL ready, but won't be leaned on when they are healthy. Byram looks absolutely dominant for Canada right now, but probably won't make the NHL team this year.

They have a no-doubt top 20 NHL D man leading a unit that is hands down the best 2-6 group in the NHL. They are absolutely loaded at D. The scariest part about Colorado's future is that the group is young, cost controlled and they have the best D prospect in the world knocking on the door. But that doesn't change that it is already the best group in the league. It could be the best defense ever assembled in the cap era in 2-3 years and they could keep that group together for 5+ years. That remains to be seen. They aren't there yet, but they are already the best group in the league right now.

Edit: Makar, Graves, Cole, Girard and Toews all outscored each of our D besides Krug and Parayko last year. They got an exceptional amount of production from their blueline, but not at the expense of allowing goals. They were 6th in the NHL in GA per game last season (we were 5th). Considering the high-event brand of hockey that team plays, that is an amazing accomplishment.

Saying Colorado's blue line is the best in the league is ridiculous. Tampa, Carolina, Columbus, Minnesota, Nashville, and Dallas easily have better D cores and it's not remotely close. Makar is still unproven defensively against top-end forwards to really consider him an all-around elite defensemen right now. Also Colorado doesn't have any defensemen with elite defensive abilities to even put them in the same conversation with the aforementioned teams that do. Apparently we have some Avs homers on here.

 

[Vektor]

I'd take Colorado's blue line over any team in the league for this season.

Makar played 23:41 a night in the playoffs this year, which was 2 minutes more than any other D man on their roster. In 15 games he had 15 points, was +12 and 9 of his points came at even strength. He's not an elite shutdown guy, but he can more than hold his own against quality competition defensively and still dominate offensively. There is a very, very good reason that he won the Calder and finished 9th in Norris voting as a rookie. He is the real deal and is without question a top 20 NHL D man. He's top 10 on most lists.

Girard and Graves both surpassed EJ in ability this past season. They are both legit top 4 guys. As is Toews. There is a very solid argument that EJ is their 5th best D man going into this season. They have 5 guys who are all at least capable of being "the guy" on the 2nd pairing of a decent NHL team. Ian Cole is their 6th D man now. Timmons might be NHL ready, but won't be leaned on when they are healthy. Byram looks absolutely dominant for Canada right now, but probably won't make the NHL team this year.

They have a no-doubt top 20 NHL D man leading a unit that is hands down the best 2-6 group in the NHL. They are absolutely loaded at D. The scariest part about Colorado's future is that the group is young, cost controlled and they have the best D prospect in the world knocking on the door. But that doesn't change that it is already the best group in the league. It could be the best defense ever assembled in the cap era in 2-3 years and they could keep that group together for 5+ years. That remains to be seen. They aren't there yet, but they are already the best group in the league right now.

Edit: Makar, Graves, Cole, Girard and Toews all outscored each of our D besides Krug and Parayko last year. They got an exceptional amount of production from their blueline, but not at the expense of allowing goals. They were 6th in the NHL in GA per game last season (we were 5th). Considering the high-event brand of hockey that team plays, that is an amazing accomplishment.

I wouldn't even take Colorado's blue line over multiple normal central teams. Dallas, Nashville, and our own is better. Open it up to the entire NHL and they're behind Tampa, Carolina, and others. Colorado quickly became the most overrated team in the NHL.

 

[BlueSeal]

Saying Colorado's blue line is the best in the league is ridiculous. Tampa, Carolina, Columbus, Minnesota, Nashville, and Dallas easily have better D cores and it's not remotely close. Makar is still unproven defensively against top-end forwards to really consider him an all-around elite defensemen right now. Also Colorado doesn't have any defensemen with elite defensive abilities to even put them in the same conversation with the aforementioned teams that do. Apparently we have some Avs homers on here.

It's a stretch to say they have the best in the league, but they do have a pretty deep D talent pool and in a few years I wouldn't be surprised if they were a force, but a few things would still have to go their way.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I wouldn't even take Colorado's blue line over multiple normal central teams. Dallas, Nashville, and our own is better. Open it up to the entire NHL and they're behind Tampa, Carolina, and others. Colorado quickly became the most overrated team in the NHL.

Colorado plays an outstanding team game. That's their key. When they don't play as a team, it shows quickly.

That said, I think you're underrating Colorado's defense in the Central. Of course they're behind Tampa and Dallas. I might put them even with Columbus and Carolina (who's older than most of you realize), I'd give them a slight nod over Nashville who's really weak on the bottom pairing and on depth. Detroit and Chicago, ...

The key point is that the defense is young and has (for a few guys, lots of) room to improve. Cole (31 in February) and Johnson (32 in March) are the graybeards; Toews is 27 in February. The rest of them are 25 or younger. Is that an elite-caliber blueline right now? No, but in 2-3 years that blueline could easily be the envy of the rest of the league and be that way for 6-8 years, if not more.

 

[execwrite1]

Two thoughts -

Colorado is a paper tiger. Great roster but their goaltending will do them in. They still need to find the guy in the nets and don't have him yet.

Watching the World Junior Cup, tough to take that Blues had no one. The price they paid for the Cup and well worth it but the cupboard is bare. One more run at Stanley in the next two years or so and that might be all she wrote for this group.

 

[Brian39]

Colorado was 6th in GA per game and 2nd in GF per game. They didn't play anything close to one of the most defensive styles in the league and their forward group is not full of elite 2 way guys. MacKinnon, Burakovsky, Kadri, Rantanen, Landeskog, Donskoi, Compher, Nichuskin, and Calvert is not a top end defensive forward group, so I don't think we can act like they suppressed scoring so well due to the forwards' defensive play. They accomplished this despite the general consensus being that goaltending is the biggest weakness on their team and in the summer they upgraded Zadorov to D Toews.

I like the Lightning's top 4 a bit better than the Avs, largely because Hedman is the best player in the group. But their top 4 edge isn't enormous and is noticeably outweighed by Colorado's substantially better depth. Tampa's #5 D man this year is either a rookie or a 30 year old Jan Rutta who has 127 career NHL games played. He's played fewer than 40 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and isn't especially great at any specific skill. Their #6 D is either a rookie or Luke Schenn, who has played on 6 teams over the last 6 years, has played fewer than 30 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and somehow found a way to be -8 in 26 games with the Lightning last year. Cal Foote and Andreas Borgman might steal jobs from Rutta and/or Schenn, but plugging guys in with zero NHL experience is a big question mark compared to Colorado using guys like Erik Johnson, Devon Toews and Ian Cole in those lesser roles. The loss of Shatty and (to a lesser extent) Bogosian is not trivial since they are being replaced by rookies and/or guys who are barely NHL caliber players that they weren't comfortable relying on last season. An injury to any of Hedman. McDonagh, Cernak or Sergachev makes this group pretty darn average and even when fully healthy they just lack depth in the 4-6 D men. While I would take Tampa's top 4 over Colorado's this season, that advantage is outweighed by Colorado's incredible depth.

I have the Stars ranked as my #2 defensive group in the league and it is close. I'm not going to strenuously argue with anyone who would take that group over Colorado's because they are the clear 1-2 with a noticeable drop to #3 in my opinion. I have Colorado ahead of them because I think Esa Lindell is a touch overrated and the defensive group as a whole was caved in during the playoffs. They were 16th out of 24 in goals against in the playoffs this year (13th of 16 teams that made it to the traditional tournament). Khudobin sported a .917 in the playoffs, so it isn't like they just got awful goaltending. They were the first team to make it to the Final allowing 3+ goals a game since 1993. Again, I still think they are an extremely good group, but I think that playing in front of a top 3 tandem in the league props them up a bit more than people want to believe. Their team SV% for the last two years has been .924 and .929 in the regular season.

I don't love the Columbus group. Jones is an absolute stud and was a minutes monster in the playoffs. Werenski is good offensively, but has his own substantial defensive issues. Ryan Murray was awful last year, I like Gavrigov and David Savard is fine. The rest of the D is rounded out by a bunch of guys that they didn't trust to play 16 minutes a night. I think Torts makes blue lines better than the sum of their parts and there is zero question that the Columbus forwards do substantially more heavy lifting defensively than Colorado's.

Carolina has an amazing 1-2 punch in Slavin/Hamilton, but a drop off after that. Pesce took a step back in a bigger role last year from his awesome 2019 season. Eddy was their #4 D man most of last year and they let him walk. I think Brady Skjei is one of the most overrated D men in the league and Gardiner was pretty brutal at 5 on 5 last year (13 even strength points and -24 despite getting heavily sheltered minutes). Haydin Fleury should round out their healthy D group this year. He is developing at a good trajectory, but nothing about his game wows me. I don't think he is ready to be the 4th best D man on a contending roster and I think he has to leapfrog Skjei/Gardiner if that defensive group is going to be truly elite.

Nashville has a good top 3, but the bottom 3 is some combo of Borowitzki, Benning Fabbro and Tinordi (and maybe Yan Weber who is on a PTO). Boro is solid, but Fabbro looked outclassed in a top 4 role last year, Tinordi is a 27 year old who has never played 30 NHL games in a season, and Benning struggled to stay in Edmonton's top 6 last year. Like many other teams, the D gets real thin real fast.

I'd take Colorado's D over all those groups (although Dallas is close). Besides Dallas, every one of those groups has at least one major hole and a 3rd pairing that very much looks like a 3rd pairing. Colorado's 3rd pairing is a 2nd pairing on at least 10 NHL teams. Potentially more depending on which of Graves/Toews/EJ/Girard gets paired with Cole. There are more quality defenders in their group than any in the league and despite being an offensive guy, Makar is without question a legit #1 NHL D man. I genuinely don't get this narrative that the goaltending is the weakness AND their D is overrated despite them being 6th in goals against last year and improving the blue line in the summer.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Colorado was 6th in GA per game and 2nd in GF per game. They didn't play anything close to one of the most defensive styles in the league and their forward group is not full of elite 2 way guys. MacKinnon, Burakovsky, Kadri, Rantanen, Landeskog, Donskoi, Compher, Nichuskin, and Calvert is not a top end defensive forward group, so I don't think we can act like they suppressed scoring so well due to the forwards' defensive play. They accomplished this despite the general consensus being that goaltending is the biggest weakness on their team and in the summer they upgraded Zadorov to D Toews.

I like the Lightning's top 4 a bit better than the Avs, largely because Hedman is the best player in the group. But their top 4 edge isn't enormous and is noticeably outweighed by Colorado's substantially better depth. Tampa's #5 D man this year is either a rookie or a 30 year old Jan Rutta who has 127 career NHL games played. He's played fewer than 40 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and isn't especially great at any specific skill. Their #6 D is either a rookie or Luke Schenn, who has played on 6 teams over the last 6 years, has played fewer than 30 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and somehow found a way to be -8 in 26 games with the Lightning last year. Cal Foote and Andreas Borgman might steal jobs from Rutta and/or Schenn, but plugging guys in with zero NHL experience is a big question mark compared to Colorado using guys like Erik Johnson, Devon Toews and Ian Cole in those lesser roles. The loss of Shatty and (to a lesser extent) Bogosian is not trivial since they are being replaced by rookies and/or guys who are barely NHL caliber players that they weren't comfortable relying on last season. An injury to any of Hedman. McDonagh, Cernak or Sergachev makes this group pretty darn average and even when fully healthy they just lack depth in the 4-6 D men. While I would take Tampa's top 4 over Colorado's this season, that advantage is outweighed by Colorado's incredible depth.

I have the Stars ranked as my #2 defensive group in the league and it is close. I'm not going to strenuously argue with anyone who would take that group over Colorado's because they are the clear 1-2 with a noticeable drop to #3 in my opinion. I have Colorado ahead of them because I think Esa Lindell is a touch overrated and the defensive group as a whole was caved in during the playoffs. They were 16th out of 24 in goals against in the playoffs this year (13th of 16 teams that made it to the traditional tournament). Khudobin sported a .917 in the playoffs, so it isn't like they just got awful goaltending. They were the first team to make it to the Final allowing 3+ goals a game since 1993. Again, I still think they are an extremely good group, but I think that playing in front of a top 3 tandem in the league props them up a bit more than people want to believe. Their team SV% for the last two years has been .924 and .929 in the regular season.

I don't love the Columbus group. Jones is an absolute stud and was a minutes monster in the playoffs. Werenski is good offensively, but has his own substantial defensive issues. Ryan Murray was awful last year, I like Gavrigov and David Savard is fine. The rest of the D is rounded out by a bunch of guys that they didn't trust to play 16 minutes a night. I think Torts makes blue lines better than the sum of their parts and there is zero question that the Columbus forwards do substantially more heavy lifting defensively than Colorado's.

Carolina has an amazing 1-2 punch in Slavin/Hamilton, but a drop off after that. Pesce took a step back in a bigger role last year from his awesome 2019 season. Eddy was their #4 D man most of last year and they let him walk. I think Brady Skjei is one of the most overrated D men in the league and Gardiner was pretty brutal at 5 on 5 last year (13 even strength points and -24 despite getting heavily sheltered minutes). Haydin Fleury should round out their healthy D group this year. He is developing at a good trajectory, but nothing about his game wows me. I don't think he is ready to be the 4th best D man on a contending roster and I think he has to leapfrog Skjei/Gardiner if that defensive group is going to be truly elite.

Nashville has a good top 3, but the bottom 3 is some combo of Borowitzki, Benning Fabbro and Tinordi (and maybe Yan Weber who is on a PTO). Boro is solid, but Fabbro looked outclassed in a top 4 role last year, Tinordi is a 27 year old who has never played 30 NHL games in a season, and Benning struggled to stay in Edmonton's top 6 last year. Like many other teams, the D gets real thin real fast.

I'd take Colorado's D over all those groups (although Dallas is close). Besides Dallas, every one of those groups has at least one major hole and a 3rd pairing that very much looks like a 3rd pairing. Colorado's 3rd pairing is a 2nd pairing on at least 10 NHL teams. Potentially more depending on which of Graves/Toews/EJ/Girard gets paired with Cole. There are more quality defenders in their group than any in the league and despite being an offensive guy, Makar is without question a legit #1 NHL D man. I genuinely don't get this narrative that the goaltending is the weakness AND their D is overrated despite them being 6th in goals against last year and improving the blue line in the summer.

I agree with all of this and I'm personally getting tired of reading how Colorado is some "paper tiger" or is "overrated" when any person watching their play and/or looking at their analytics could tell you that they are one of the best in the league.

They are not a contender because they are exciting to watch or boast high-end forward talent. They are a contender because they play a highly effective game that maximizes their scoring chances while forcing the opposition in a position to limit their cycle. Cale Makar is a great example of why Colorado as a team is so effective. Despite being a player that people question his defensive ability, he is in the top-10 of defensemen with the lowest, 5-on-5 expected goals against and lowest, 5-on-5 high-danger corsi against of defensemen that have played over 900 minutes. If he is defensively challenged, then why aren't other teams generating scoring chances when he is on the ice? Makar, much like the Avalanche as a whole, doesn't (don't) excel at conventional defense (i.e. playing defensive lanes, getting in front of shots, play hard-hitting in the defensive zone, etc.). What Makar does do is get the puck away from attacking players and never gives it back. His combo of speed and puck-handling are in a league of its own. He doesn't "need" to find ways of deflecting shots, standing in shooting lanes, or what have you because he's too busy keeping the puck away from the other team.

As an aside, I don't wich to imply that Makar, or the Avalanche in a broader sense, don't play this conventional defense. They do and they do it effectively as well. The team is better, in fact, with the addition of Toews and the emergence of Graves. My point is that any individual saying things like "the Avalanche aren't good because of poor defense", or anything similar, doesn't ring sincere when the numbers don't back that up. Personally, I think it's more that those individuals are witnessing a style of game that doesn't match their definition of what defense is supposed to look like.

One could probably make a good argument that Makar isn't good at "conventional" (for lack of a better word) defense. But Makar is pretty damn good at preventing the other team from scoring. I don't know what you would call that, but I say that he's pretty good at it, whatever "it" is. And that "it" is something that the rest of the Avalanche also do well.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't think there should be any real dispute that Tampa and Colorado are 2 best teams in league on paper. We don't know how season will play out, but they look to be clear favorites. I would put us up there with anyone else.

 

[BlueMed]

Colorado was 6th in GA per game and 2nd in GF per game. They didn't play anything close to one of the most defensive styles in the league and their forward group is not full of elite 2 way guys. MacKinnon, Burakovsky, Kadri, Rantanen, Landeskog, Donskoi, Compher, Nichuskin, and Calvert is not a top end defensive forward group, so I don't think we can act like they suppressed scoring so well due to the forwards' defensive play. They accomplished this despite the general consensus being that goaltending is the biggest weakness on their team and in the summer they upgraded Zadorov to D Toews.

I like the Lightning's top 4 a bit better than the Avs, largely because Hedman is the best player in the group. But their top 4 edge isn't enormous and is noticeably outweighed by Colorado's substantially better depth. Tampa's #5 D man this year is either a rookie or a 30 year old Jan Rutta who has 127 career NHL games played. He's played fewer than 40 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and isn't especially great at any specific skill. Their #6 D is either a rookie or Luke Schenn, who has played on 6 teams over the last 6 years, has played fewer than 30 NHL games in each of the last 2 years and somehow found a way to be -8 in 26 games with the Lightning last year. Cal Foote and Andreas Borgman might steal jobs from Rutta and/or Schenn, but plugging guys in with zero NHL experience is a big question mark compared to Colorado using guys like Erik Johnson, Devon Toews and Ian Cole in those lesser roles. The loss of Shatty and (to a lesser extent) Bogosian is not trivial since they are being replaced by rookies and/or guys who are barely NHL caliber players that they weren't comfortable relying on last season. An injury to any of Hedman. McDonagh, Cernak or Sergachev makes this group pretty darn average and even when fully healthy they just lack depth in the 4-6 D men. While I would take Tampa's top 4 over Colorado's this season, that advantage is outweighed by Colorado's incredible depth.

I have the Stars ranked as my #2 defensive group in the league and it is close. I'm not going to strenuously argue with anyone who would take that group over Colorado's because they are the clear 1-2 with a noticeable drop to #3 in my opinion. I have Colorado ahead of them because I think Esa Lindell is a touch overrated and the defensive group as a whole was caved in during the playoffs. They were 16th out of 24 in goals against in the playoffs this year (13th of 16 teams that made it to the traditional tournament). Khudobin sported a .917 in the playoffs, so it isn't like they just got awful goaltending. They were the first team to make it to the Final allowing 3+ goals a game since 1993. Again, I still think they are an extremely good group, but I think that playing in front of a top 3 tandem in the league props them up a bit more than people want to believe. Their team SV% for the last two years has been .924 and .929 in the regular season.

I don't love the Columbus group. Jones is an absolute stud and was a minutes monster in the playoffs. Werenski is good offensively, but has his own substantial defensive issues. Ryan Murray was awful last year, I like Gavrigov and David Savard is fine. The rest of the D is rounded out by a bunch of guys that they didn't trust to play 16 minutes a night. I think Torts makes blue lines better than the sum of their parts and there is zero question that the Columbus forwards do substantially more heavy lifting defensively than Colorado's.

Carolina has an amazing 1-2 punch in Slavin/Hamilton, but a drop off after that. Pesce took a step back in a bigger role last year from his awesome 2019 season. Eddy was their #4 D man most of last year and they let him walk. I think Brady Skjei is one of the most overrated D men in the league and Gardiner was pretty brutal at 5 on 5 last year (13 even strength points and -24 despite getting heavily sheltered minutes). Haydin Fleury should round out their healthy D group this year. He is developing at a good trajectory, but nothing about his game wows me. I don't think he is ready to be the 4th best D man on a contending roster and I think he has to leapfrog Skjei/Gardiner if that defensive group is going to be truly elite.

Nashville has a good top 3, but the bottom 3 is some combo of Borowitzki, Benning Fabbro and Tinordi (and maybe Yan Weber who is on a PTO). Boro is solid, but Fabbro looked outclassed in a top 4 role last year, Tinordi is a 27 year old who has never played 30 NHL games in a season, and Benning struggled to stay in Edmonton's top 6 last year. Like many other teams, the D gets real thin real fast.

I'd take Colorado's D over all those groups (although Dallas is close). Besides Dallas, every one of those groups has at least one major hole and a 3rd pairing that very much looks like a 3rd pairing. Colorado's 3rd pairing is a 2nd pairing on at least 10 NHL teams. Potentially more depending on which of Graves/Toews/EJ/Girard gets paired with Cole. There are more quality defenders in their group than any in the league and despite being an offensive guy, Makar is without question a legit #1 NHL D man. I genuinely don't get this narrative that the goaltending is the weakness AND their D is overrated despite them being 6th in goals against last year and improving the blue line in the summer.

I appreciate your detailed analysis. However, as important as depth is on defense, you have to acknowledge the unequal playing times and roles between the top 4 defensemen and the bottom pairing. The top 4 guys often average 24-25 minutes a night doing the heavy lifting while the bottom pairing guys are good for about 15 minutes. Whatever advantage Colorado has on their bottom pairing doesn't just vault them ahead of those aforementioned D cores like Tampa, Carolina, Columbus, etc. that have already established themselves. And as good as Cale Makar is offensively, he is still sheltered on the defensive side. He still needs to prove that he can go up against top-end forwards before he's even in the same conversation as Hedman, Pietrangelo, etc. That is especially important during road playoff games when the home team gets the last line change. And you can cite whatever regular season statistics you want, but that holds little predictive value when it comes to the playoffs.

 

[BlueMed]

I don't think there should be any real dispute that Tampa and Colorado are 2 best teams in league on paper. We don't know how season will play out, but they look to be clear favorites. I would put us up there with anyone else.

Colorado is good but they are getting overrated a bit. They have a really nice top 6 with Burakovsky, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, and Saad, but the Jets' top 6 is just as good with Ehlers, Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Stastny, and Connor. One problem with this forum is that people are so obsessed with these small details that they lose sight of the bigger picture. The reality is, a lot of teams are really close in terms of talent, but the media picks a lot of favorites early on, which is why people were so surprised when Columbus knocked out Tampa and Toronto. The question isn't which team necessarily has more talent or better players. It's about which group of players step up when it matters. Some people are waiting for Colorado to show that first, and there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Brian39]

I agree with all of this and I'm personally getting tired of reading how Colorado is some "paper tiger" or is "overrated" when any person watching their play and/or looking at their analytics could tell you that they are one of the best in the league.

They are not a contender because they are exciting to watch or boast high-end forward talent. They are a contender because they play a highly effective game that maximizes their scoring chances while forcing the opposition in a position to limit their cycle. Cale Makar is a great example of why Colorado as a team is so effective. Despite being a player that people question his defensive ability, he is in the top-10 of defensemen with the lowest, 5-on-5 expected goals against and lowest, 5-on-5 high-danger corsi against of defensemen that have played over 900 minutes. If he is defensively challenged, then why aren't other teams generating scoring chances when he is on the ice? Makar, much like the Avalanche as a whole, doesn't (don't) excel at conventional defense (i.e. playing defensive lanes, getting in front of shots, play hard-hitting in the defensive zone, etc.). What Makar does do is get the puck away from attacking players and never gives it back. His combo of speed and puck-handling are in a league of its own. He doesn't "need" to find ways of deflecting shots, standing in shooting lanes, or what have you because he's too busy keeping the puck away from the other team.

As an aside, I don't wich to imply that Makar, or the Avalanche in a broader sense, don't play this conventional defense. They do and they do it effectively as well. The team is better, in fact, with the addition of Toews and the emergence of Graves. My point is that any individual saying things like "the Avalanche aren't good because of poor defense", or anything similar, doesn't ring sincere when the numbers don't back that up. Personally, I think it's more that those individuals are witnessing a style of game that doesn't match their definition of what defense is supposed to look like.

One could probably make a good argument that Makar isn't good at "conventional" (for lack of a better word) defense. But Makar is pretty damn good at preventing the other team from scoring. I don't know what you would call that, but I say that he's pretty good at it, whatever "it" is. And that "it" is something that the rest of the Avalanche also do well.

Agreed with all this. They were 2nd in the NHL in regulation wins, 3rd in goal differential and 4th in points. They tore up the regular season.

They also looked great in the playoff bubble. They took the eventual Western Conference champs to 7 games even though their starter and backup both got hurt. They have convincingly won a playoff round in each of the last 2 years and then gone to game 7 in round two in each year, so it isn't like they are a team who has wilted in the playoffs.

Makar specifically was dominant in the playoffs. At 5 on 5, He had a +12 goal differential in 15 playoff games while being 2nd on his team in even strength TOI (18:09 a night). His xGF%, CF%, and xSF% were all above 60%. HDCF% was 59.75%. He was getting offensive deployment for sure, but allowing 8 goals over 15 playoff games against top 6 competition is pretty damn far away from being a defensive liability when you're getting 18 minutes a night at 5 on 5. I totally get being hesitant to call him a top 5 or even top 10 D man right now. But he is without question top 20 and is almost unquestionably closer to 10 than 20 on that list. This idea that there are major question marks around him being a legit #1D is bizarre.

 

[BlueMed]

Agreed with all this. They were 2nd in the NHL in regulation wins, 3rd in goal differential and 4th in points. They tore up the regular season.

They also looked great in the playoff bubble. They took the eventual Western Conference champs to 7 games even though their starter and backup both got hurt. They have convincingly won a playoff round in each of the last 2 years and then gone to game 7 in round two in each year, so it isn't like they are a team who has wilted in the playoffs.

Makar specifically was dominant in the playoffs. At 5 on 5, He had a +12 goal differential in 15 playoff games while being 2nd on his team in even strength TOI (18:09 a night). His xGF%, CF%, and xSF% were all above 60%. HDCF% was 59.75%. He was getting offensive deployment for sure, but allowing 8 goals over 15 playoff games against top 6 competition is pretty damn far away from being a defensive liability when you're getting 18 minutes a night at 5 on 5. I totally get being hesitant to call him a top 5 or even top 10 D man right now. But he is without question top 20 and is almost unquestionably closer to 10 than 20 on that list. This idea that there are major question marks around him being a legit #1D is bizarre.

Looking up these minute statistics is really just splitting hairs at this point. In reality, they hold very little predictive value when it comes to larger outcomes such as the playoffs. Colorado either steps up as a group or they dont. The same can be said about St. Louis, but the majority of this roster has already. It sounds like you are very intrigued by the Avalanche, in which case, I would encourage you to take your opinions to their subforum as we are getting very off-track here.

 

[Brian39]

And as good as Cale Makar is offensively, he is still sheltered on the defensive side. He still needs to prove that he can go up against top-end forwards before he's even in the same conversation as Hedman, Pietrangelo, etc. That is especially important during road playoff games when the home team gets the last line change. And you can cite whatever regular season statistics you want, but that holds little predictive value when it comes to the playoffs.

Do last year's playoffs not count?

Looking at just road games where the opposition could exploit last change against him, he had a CF% of 62.66, a FF% of 61.15, a GF% of 56.25, and xGF% of 53.07, a SCF%% of 64.55, a HDCF% of 56.60, and a HDGF% of 60%. Those numbers are absolutely fantastic.

Makar's numbers vs Dallas on the road: 54:37 even strength TOI over 3 games and 52.63 offensive zone start %. CF% of 59.17, FF% of 59.42, GF% of 54.55, xGF% of 55.38, SCF% of 61.54, HDCF% of 55.56, and a HDGF% of 55.56. Again, fantastic despite a very good team being able to use last change to exploit his perceived defensive liabilities. In fact, he was drastically better vs Dallas than Hedman was.

Hedman's numbers vs Dallas on the road: 56:25 even strength TOI over 3 games and a 70% offensive zone faceoff %. CF% of 56.25, FF% of 56.96, GF% 33.33, xGF% 46.43, SCF% 44.90, HDCF% of 28.57, HDGF% 0.00

Makar was sheltered significantly less than Hedman and drastically outperformed Hedman when Dallas had last change.

 

[Brian39]

Looking up these minute statistics is really just splitting hairs at this point. In reality, they hold very little predictive value when it comes to larger outcomes such as the playoffs.

Advanced possession stats hold by far the most predictive value of any hockey stat. Teams and players that consistently dominate time and quality of possession consistently succeed more than teams that don't.

Colorado either steps up as a group or they dont. The same can be said about St. Louis, but the majority of this roster has already. It sounds like you are very intrigued by the Avalanche, in which case, I would encourage you to take your opinions to their subforum as we are getting very off-track here.

I suggest you stay out of topics asking you to compare the Blues to other teams if you aren't interested in discussions about the quality of other teams. There is just no way to discuss whether the Blues are a favorite/contender/bubble team without an honest look at the teams we are directly competing with.