How do you make the Leafs a great defensive team?

[usernamezrhardtodo]

It's actually mind boggling that a fringe player like Galchenyuk would try such a high risk play like that in overtime.

It's one thing when your best players attempt stuff like that which I dont even care for but entirely different when role players are trying to make cute, fancy and dangerous plays in area's where it can really burn you.

That's exactly right....why are we not saying to the lower lineup guys that risky shit should be done by only the skill guys in certain situations? They seem to suffer catastrophic failures at the worst times because they don't seem to have any sense on when to be a bit safer and when to go all out like we are behind by a couple.

 

[Stephen]

I don't see it that way honestly, I'd rather Keefe go all attack when we're up a couple goals rather than turtle. We do some sort of half assed hybrid when we're up in the playoffs and the only time it wins is when the clock saves us. Either turtle or all attack is better than whatever we're doing, it almost seems like a confidence issue of letting the other team dictate play rather than call the shots ourselves and risk making the wrong call.

The D play on aggregate is fine now, the problem is individual D plays in high pressure situations.

Honestly even if we allowed 100 goals against all season, I'd still feel nervous being up a couple goals in a playoff game with pressure mounting.

That's because we teach a risky style and the risk shows up even more when the other teams tone it down. We still play the same way thinking its the exact same game as the regular season. You could literally pinpoint every series loss to a few plays-Boston 2 times was a Fred and Gardiner issue. Montreal was a Dermott and Gally issue etc. If we didn't have people who are brain dead playing and a coach who could instill some IQ into them we might have at least won 1or 2 of the series by now. We have this stupid idea that being on the attack at all times is what we need to do. The problem is Colorado winning will just enforce that idea even though we don't have the D that they do...nor the role players.

I don't see it that way honestly, I'd rather Keefe go all attack when we're up a couple goals rather than turtle. We do some sort of half assed hybrid when we're up in the playoffs and the only time it wins is when the clock saves us. Either turtle or all attack is better than whatever we're doing, it almost seems like a confidence issue of letting the other team dictate play rather than call the shots ourselves and risk making the wrong call.

The Leafs decision-making sliders can be really off and trend towards higher risk or at least usual puck management decision making. They like to activate everyone to make high skilled possession plays and generally I think this makes players more effective over 82 games, but doesn't prepare them for the high stakes conservative moments late in a playoff series or a close out situation.

The pros of this risk management stance is guys lower on the pecking order can artificially bring more skill to the table. A Holl or Lyubushkin being allowed to freely roam lets them contribute more than if they were on a more conservative team playing on the rails and staying back defensively.

But it also empowers guys who should have more restrictions to play free and sometimes you don't want them to. Especially lower skill or lower IQ guys who can't pull it off in vulnerable, high danger moments. Think of the Galchenyuk reversal, Dermott spin-o-rama in OT, Kerfoot ice dance at center ice in Game 6.

I'd also separate the notion of attack vs defense, since a lot of the mistakes that are made are on the transition. From an attack POV, I think the Leafs tend to play half pregnant quite a bit. The cycle around like they don't want to lose the puck. They have no point shot threat to kick it back to, so it's like looking for parking. They also don't attack with speed in straight lines or using much physicality to break down a park the bus scheme.

 

[Mess]

The 2021-22 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 115 points regular season surrendered 253 goals against which ranked them 9th in the Eastern conference and tied for 18th overall.

The 2017-18 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 105 point regular season surrendered 232 goals against which ranked them 3rd in the Eastern conference and tied for 10th overall.

Leafs surrendered +21 more goals against last year and dropped +6 spots in the East and +8 positions overall in the standings. Leafs aren't getting better they're getting worse defensively over time.

Some people like to pretend the Leafs are getting better defensively, and back it up with pretend stats but Actual pucks in net tell a very different story over the last 4 years in comparison to record setting seasons.

If you allowed only the top 8 best defensive teams per conference or top 16 overall into the playoffs based on factual goals against then Leafs wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs.

The 2021-22 TB Lightening surrendered 233 GA this year, so when defense and goaltending won out it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

[Menzinger]

2 Step process.

Step #1: Hire Barry Trotz
Step #2: Sit back and relax.

Need proof ....

The 2017-18 non-playoff NYIs finished 31st overall 296 goals against, then hired Barry Trotz and the 2018-19 finished 1st overall in goals against with 196 (-100 GA, and went to the final 4 before losing to the Cup champs TB,

From worst to first in the NHL defensively mainly due to hiring Trotz a competent coach, and from non-p;layoff to final 4 was the reward of that decision. Oh BTW the GM that made that move won Exec of the year.

And two seasons later missed the playoffs entirely and terminated the coaches contract

 

[TheRumble]

The 2021-22 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 115 points regular season surrendered 253 goals against which ranked them 9th in the Eastern conference and tied for 18th overall.

The 2017-18 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 105 point regular season surrendered 232 goals against which ranked them 3rd in the Eastern conference and tied for 10th overall.

Leafs surrendered +21 more goals against last year and dropped +6 spots in the East and +8 positions overall in the standings. Leafs aren't getting better they're getting worse defensively over time.

Some people like to pretend the Leafs are getting better defensively, and back it up with pretend stats but Actual pucks in net tell a very different story over the last 4 years in comparison to record setting seasons.

If you allowed only the top 8 best defensive teams per conference or top 16 overall into the playoffs based on factual goals against then Leafs wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs.

The 2021-22 TB Lightening surrendered 233 GA this year, so when defense and goaltending won out it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
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That was almost entirely due to goaltending, not bad defense. Andersen is criminally underrated by Leaf fans but he was an exccellent goalie while he was here that shouldered a very heavy burden for us.

The 21-22 Leafs vs the 17-18 Leafs

- 9th overall in shot attempts allowed vs 26th
- 13th in unblocked shot attempts allowed vs 28th
- 7th in expected goals against vs 27th
- 11th in scoring chances against vs 24th
- 10th in high danger chances against vs 21st
- Had the second best PK in the league vs 15th ranked PK
- 26th in Save Percentage vs 7th

The defense controls shot attempts and shot quality (Expected Goals). After that it's up to the goalie. You can't just look at goals against and attribute it entirely to one or the other. That's lazy thinking.

HFBoards has an incredibly short memory and is prone to scapegoating but Andersen was an excellent goalie for us, The problem is that he's injury prone and we always wore the guy out by forcing him to play 65+ games for us. In his three full seasons here, he played more than any other goalie in the league, faced more shots than any other goalie and would be worn out by the playoffs. Andersen realistically is a guy who we should have been playing 45-50 times a year instead of 60-70. It was incredibly bad timing on and bad luck that when the Leafs had a good defense for the first time in his career, Andersen had a bad season. We don't sniff the 16-17 playoffs without him, we're probably a ~95 point team in 17-18 without him and ditto fro 18-19.

The further removed from the Babcock days we get, the more I realize how bad of a coach he was. Those early teams succeeded in many ways despite him.

 

[Lightsol]

The 2021-22 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 115 points regular season surrendered 253 goals against which ranked them 9th in the Eastern conference and tied for 18th overall.

The 2017-18 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 105 point regular season surrendered 232 goals against which ranked them 3rd in the Eastern conference and tied for 10th overall.

Leafs surrendered +21 more goals against last year and dropped +6 spots in the East and +8 positions overall in the standings. Leafs aren't getting better they're getting worse defensively over time.

Some people like to pretend the Leafs are getting better defensively, and back it up with pretend stats but Actual pucks in net tell a very different story over the last 4 years in comparison to record setting seasons.

If you allowed only the top 8 best defensive teams per conference or top 16 overall into the playoffs based on factual goals against then Leafs wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs.

The 2021-22 TB Lightening surrendered 233 GA this year, so when defense and goaltending won out it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
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Yet another Mess special where he tries to infer a point while leaving out facts that work against his point. In this case, ignoring that the Leafs had a three month stretch where they were getting the WORST GOALTENDING IN HOCKEY. Think that might have inflated our year-end GA totals a bit there?

But of course, that can't be it...

 

[Lightsol]

The Leafs decision-making sliders can be really off and trend towards higher risk or at least usual puck management decision making. They like to activate everyone to make high skilled possession plays and generally I think this makes players more effective over 82 games, but doesn't prepare them for the high stakes conservative moments late in a playoff series or a close out situation.

The pros of this risk management stance is guys lower on the pecking order can artificially bring more skill to the table. A Holl or Lyubushkin being allowed to freely roam lets them contribute more than if they were on a more conservative team playing on the rails and staying back defensively.

But it also empowers guys who should have more restrictions to play free and sometimes you don't want them to. Especially lower skill or lower IQ guys who can't pull it off in vulnerable, high danger moments. Think of the Galchenyuk reversal, Dermott spin-o-rama in OT, Kerfoot ice dance at center ice in Game 6.

I'd also separate the notion of attack vs defense, since a lot of the mistakes that are made are on the transition. From an attack POV, I think the Leafs tend to play half pregnant quite a bit. The cycle around like they don't want to lose the puck. They have no point shot threat to kick it back to, so it's like looking for parking. They also don't attack with speed in straight lines or using much physicality to break down a park the bus scheme.

Honestly, the Leafs are at their best when they're holding the puck; the strategy is clearly "the best defense is a good offense", where holding the puck in the opposing zone not only lets them get more scoring chances, but also limits scoring chances again. But there are a few problems that keep coming up:

• As people have repeatedly pointed out here, guys with low IQ's thinking they can play like the superstars, and then making really terrible decisions. See Kerfoot, Galchenyuk, and so on.
• Goalies giving up bad goals at bad times, deflating the team.
• The team frequently reacting to said bad goals, and sometimes to having a lead going into the later stages of a game, by going into this half-assed trap style where they play like they're shorthanded, allowing the other team to meander around them like they do when they're playing their game. This is when they tend to give up goals like crazy and look really bad defensively; I don't know if this is a Keefe problem, an assistant problem, a player problem or a "shifting back to Babcock" problem, but I wish they'd figure it out and fix it because it's when they play their worst hockey. And what's worse, when they go into this style, they frequently can't get back out of it, compounding the problem; they give up tying or losing goals, and then they can't get back to playing offensively and end up losing. Game 6 against Tampa is a great example.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Yet another Mess special where he tries to infer a point while leaving out facts that work against his point. In this case, ignoring that the Leafs had a three month stretch where they were getting the WORST GOALTENDING IN HOCKEY. Think that might have inflated our year-end GA totals a bit there?

But of course, that can't be it...

We were getting 80’s level goaltending for like 2 months in the middle of the season. It’s a miracle this team still finished in a position with home ice advantage. Probably could’ve won the division if Campbell and/or Mrazek didn’t forget how to play the position.

 

[Mess]

And two seasons later missed the playoffs entirely and terminated the coaches contract

Barry Trotz went to the final 4 in 2 straight years and lost to the Cup winning TB both times including losing 1-0 in game #7 in round #3 in 2020-21.

All Keefe has to do is get to game #7 against Tampa Bay to secure his job.

Completely different standards.

NYI gave up 237 goals against last year which was the 8th best, the Cup winning Avs had 234 GA and finished 6th and TB the Cup finalists surrendered 233 and finished 5th. So completely in that same range as the Cup finalists. While the Leafs gave up 253 GA and finished 18th overall and 9th in their own conference the East.

NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin NYI - posted a .925 sv% (2nd overall) and 2.40 GAA (4th best) under Trotz defensive system.

The NYI faced a unique situation this year by starting the first 14 games of the season on the road as they were waiting for their new Arena to open, and never recovered after a slow start.

 

[Polk High]

***

 

[hotpaws]

Barry Trotz went to the final 4 in 2 straight years and lost to the Cup winning TB both times including losing 1-0 in game #7 in round #3 in 2020-21.

All Keefe has to do is get to game #7 against Tampa Bay to secure his job.

Completely different standards.

NYI gave up 237 goals against last year which was the 8th best, the Cup winning Avs had 234 GA and finished 6th and TB the Cup finalists surrendered 233 and finished 5th. So completely in that same range as the Cup finalists. While the Leafs gave up 253 GA and finished 18th overall and 9th in their own conference the East.

NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin NYI - posted a .925 sv% (2nd overall) and 2.40 GAA (4th best) under Trotz defensive system.

The NYI faced a unique situation this year by starting the first 14 games of the season on the road as they were waiting for their new Arena to open, and never recovered after a slow start.

they also had to keep playing while there line up was depleted by covid which is what really put them in a hole they couldn't dig there way out of

 

[Morbo]

And two seasons later missed the playoffs entirely and terminated the coaches contract

I'm sure they'd prefer to pretend that story didn't end the way it did..

to me it's amazing the Leafs reached 115 points getting the kind of goaltending they got. leads one to to wonder what their record would be with competent, or dare we even say, good goaltending.

 

[ACC1224]

The 2021-22 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 115 points regular season surrendered 253 goals against which ranked them 9th in the Eastern conference and tied for 18th overall.

The 2017-18 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 105 point regular season surrendered 232 goals against which ranked them 3rd in the Eastern conference and tied for 10th overall.

Leafs surrendered +21 more goals against last year and dropped +6 spots in the East and +8 positions overall in the standings. Leafs aren't getting better they're getting worse defensively over time.

Some people like to pretend the Leafs are getting better defensively, and back it up with pretend stats but Actual pucks in net tell a very different story over the last 4 years in comparison to record setting seasons.

If you allowed only the top 8 best defensive teams per conference or top 16 overall into the playoffs based on factual goals against then Leafs wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs.

The 2021-22 TB Lightening surrendered 233 GA this year, so when defense and goaltending won out it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Chicken and egg scenario.
Goaltending is so reliant on sound defense and defense is so reliant on good Goaltending.
The hope is one of these years they can have both but such is life in team sports.

 

[Mess]

Chicken and egg scenario.
Goaltending is so reliant on sound defense and defense is so reliant on good Goaltending.
The hope is one of these years they can have both but such is life in team sports.

A good goalie can bail out his defense core and team defense ..

Remember when the Leafs have goalies like Cujo and Eddie the Eagle in net, you always knew they would make key saves when needed even when the defense broke down.

A good coach like Trotz can instill a good defensive system to make the goalies job easier, though systems and strategy also.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The 2021-22 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 115 points regular season surrendered 253 goals against which ranked them 9th in the Eastern conference and tied for 18th overall.
The 2017-18 Maple Leafs that posted a record setting 105 point regular season surrendered 232 goals against which ranked them 3rd in the Eastern conference and tied for 10th overall.
Leafs surrendered +21 more goals against last year and dropped +6 spots in the East and +8 positions overall in the standings. Leafs aren't getting better they're getting worse defensively over time.

That's false. We've improved defensively each year (massively since 2017-2018), and are currently a top defensive team. They just haven't gotten the wildly unsustainable goaltending that they got in 2017-2018.

Barry Trotz went to the final 4 in 2 straight years and lost to the Cup winning TB both times including losing 1-0 in game #7 in round #3 in 2020-21.
All Keefe has to do is get to game #7 against Tampa Bay to secure his job.
Completely different standards.

Trotz loses to Tampa, and keeps his job.
Keefe loses to Tampa, and keeps his job.

TOTALLY DIFFERENT STANDARDS!!!

 

[Zybalto]

A good goalie can bail out his defense core and team defense ..

Remember when the Leafs have goalies like Cujo and Eddie the Eagle in net, you always knew they would make key saves when needed even when the defense broke down.

A good coach like Trotz can instill a good defensive system to make the goalies job easier, though systems and strategy also.

Good goaltending and Trotz were the main reasons why the Isles managed to go on those runs until the wheels came off due to the abosolutely awful way the team was put together. Its why its laughable that Trotz was let go by Mr. "GM of this decade".

Over the last 3 seasons, the Isles rank #1 in the league for team save% and were even 3rd this past tire fire of a season.

Im not sure there is a more stark improvement in team defensive play the last few years than when Keefe came in as coach for the Leafs. No more fire drills, chances and shots against way down and dominant games on both sides of the ice.

The fact his arrival coicided with Freddys injury woes(and drop in play)takes nothing away from that. (The Leafs have the 21st best save% over his tenure and also rank #1 for overall xGF%). Keefe may even owe Andersen for getting him his job as Freddy could no longer sustain the pressure of carrying the Leafs on his back.

Looking at straight defensive play the last 3 seasons, one of the Leafs main comparables were the Isles. Its why I wanted the Leafs to grab a guy like Varlamov who was so great under that level of work.

 

[Mess]

Good goaltending and Trotz were the main reasons why the Isles managed to go on those runs until the wheels came off due to the abosolutely awful way the team was put together. Its why its laughable that Trotz was let go by Mr. "GM of this decade".

Over the last 3 seasons, the Isles rank #1 in the league for team save% and were even 3rd this past tire fire of a season.

Im not sure there is a more stark improvement in team defensive play the last few years than when Keefe came in as coach for the Leafs. No more fire drills, chances and shots against way down and dominant games on both sides of the ice.

The fact his arrival coicided with Freddys injury woes(and drop in play)takes nothing away from that. (The Leafs have the 21st best save% over his tenure and also rank #1 for overall xGF%). Keefe may even owe Andersen for getting him his job as Freddy could no longer sustain the pressure of carrying the Leafs on his back.

Looking at straight defensive play the last 3 seasons, one of the Leafs main comparables were the Isles. Its why I wanted the Leafs to grab a guy like Varlamov who was so great under that level of work.

Trotz and Varlamov would be a good summer for Toronto.

 

[ToneDog]

Trotz and Varlamov would be a good summer for Toronto.

Trotz is not happening this summer. Varlamov would be nice if the ask is reasonable otherwise I am going after Husso and selling him on being #1G and winning in Toronto.

 

[Stephen]

Just a general observation, but I don't think Toronto will ever be a great defensive franchise by design.

I was listening to something the other day (about baseball) and they said that ace pitchers don't reliably increase home attendance (and gate receipts). You can kind of see how the trend towards offense has been a selling point for Toronto ticket prices in MLB and NHL for a number of years now. I just think it's a ticket price/big market driven consideration. The Leafs will never build a team like Nashville.

 

[TheRumble]

Just a general observation, but I don't think Toronto will ever be a great defensive franchise by design.

I was listening to something the other day (about baseball) and they said that ace pitchers don't reliably increase home attendance (and gate receipts). You can kind of see how the trend towards offense has been a selling point for Toronto ticket prices in MLB and NHL for a number of years now. I just think it's a ticket price/big market driven consideration. The Leafs will never build a team like Nashville.

The Leafs are a great defensive team though. They're right on the cusp of being a top 5 defensive team in the league. People aren't watching the games if they think this is the same run and gun team as the Panthers. They just happen to be a better offensive team. It's a well balanced team up and down the lineup that lost to another well balanced team up and down the lineup.

Toronto drafted Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews in a 5 year time frame with Frederik Gauthier being the guy that is sandwiched in between. The team was always going to trend towards being offensive and forward driven. It's not by design, it's timing and draft slots.

 

[Cournoyer12]

You guys need a Jim Dorey type, a big man who can smash and clear the crease! Not growing on trees nowadays!

 

[Stephen]

The Leafs are a great defensive team though. They're right on the cusp of being a top 5 defensive team in the league. People aren't watching the games if they think this is the same run and gun team as the Panthers. They just happen to be a better offensive team. It's a well balanced team up and down the lineup that lost to another well balanced team up and down the lineup.

Toronto drafted Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews in a 5 year time frame with Frederik Gauthier being the guy that is sandwiched in between. The team was always going to trend towards being offensive and forward driven. It's not by design, it's timing and draft slots.

The Leafs aren’t a great defensive team. They do a good enough job by committee for an elite team but the whole back end is a lower priority, cobbled together group missing a lot of ingredients for an elite contending blueline and I don’t think they’re a team strength under pressure. Notice how when they try to tighten up it usually short circuits the transition and attack.

 

[TheRumble]

The Leafs aren’t a great defensive team. They do a good enough job by committee for an elite team but the whole back end is a lower priority, cobbled together group missing a lot of ingredients for an elite contending blueline and I don’t think they’re a team strength under pressure. Notice how when they try to tighten up it usually short circuits the transition and attack.

If you're arguing that they aren't elite in terms of having defencemen you are right. But defensively they are great.

Defense is a team concept in hockey. You don't necessarily improve defense by just getting good defencemen. It's based on systems and since the Leafs are a forward driven team, our forwards take a bigger two way role as well. Marner and Matthews are probably two of the most important defensive players on the Leafs despite being forwards.

 

[Stephen]

If you're arguing that they aren't elite in terms of having defencemen you are right. But defensively they are great.

Defense is a team concept in hockey. You don't necessarily improve defense by just getting good defencemen. It's based on systems and since the Leafs are a forward driven team, our forwards take a bigger two way role as well. Marner and Matthews are probably two of the most important defensive players on the Leafs despite being forwards.

The Leafs ranked 18th in goals against last season. So even if you’re assigning most of the blame to the goalies you’re still stretching the concept of greatness and defensive work by team very thin.

There are a handful of teams that concentrate their resources on having great individuals on defense that give them strength from the back end. Defensemen don’t make as much money as scoring forwards generally so you get more bang for the buck and more elite minutes out of them. Toronto has never done this and never will because I doubt people would pay Scotiabank Arena prices for a mid 2000s Nashville.

 

[Zybalto]

The Leafs ranked 18th in goals against last season. So even if you’re assigning most of the blame to the goalies you’re still stretching the concept of greatness and defensive work by team very thin.

There are a handful of teams that concentrate their resources on having great individuals on defense that give them strength from the back end. Defensemen don’t make as much money as scoring forwards generally so you get more bang for the buck and more elite minutes out of them. Toronto has never done this and never will because I doubt people would pay Scotiabank Arena prices for a mid 2000s Nashville.

5v5 score adjusted D rankings last season:
Shots Against: 10th fewest in the league
xGA/60: 4th lowest in the league

In the playoffs:
Shots Against: 3rd fewest in the playoffs
xGA/60: 7th lowest in the playoffs

Since Keefe took over:
Shots Against: 9th fewest in the league
xGA/60: 6th lowest in the league

In the playoffs over Keefe's tenure:
Shots Against: 4th fewest in the playoffs
xGA/60: 2nd lowest in the playoffs


Just look at the defensive tire fire numbers the previous 3 Babcock years (The first 3 Matthews years):

Shots Against: 28th fewest in the league
xGA/60: 27th lowest in the league


Toronto's team D has been one of the hallmarks of the team the minute Keefe took over. The fact Keefe has been able to throw up the 2nd best record in hockey since he came in while dealing with having the 20th best team save% in the league is crazy.

Top 5 teams winning % since Keefe joined the Leafs (and team save% ranking):

1. Avs: .703
2. Leafs: .678
3. Panthers: .677
4. Canes: .676
4. Lightning: .676

The Leafs are quite easily a top 10 defensive team in the league....the question is will they be able to acquire that top goaltender as the final piece of the puzzle.