How do you make the Leafs a great defensive team?

[TheRumble]

The Leafs ranked 18th in goals against last season. So even if you’re assigning most of the blame to the goalies you’re still stretching the concept of greatness and defensive work by team very thin.

There are a handful of teams that concentrate their resources on having great individuals on defense that give them strength from the back end. Defensemen don’t make as much money as scoring forwards generally so you get more bang for the buck and more elite minutes out of them. Toronto has never done this and never will because I doubt people would pay Scotiabank Arena prices for a mid 2000s Nashville.

Those handful of teams drafted those elite defencemen. Toronto hasn't been in position to draft such guys except for Rielly. Had we begun the rebuild a year later, maybe we fall into Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen in 2017 but we didn't so we make due with what we have.

Hockey isn't football where one set of players specialize in defense and another set of players specialize in offense. If you are a specialist of some sort you typically are a bottom of the lineup player. Everyone on the team has a role to play on both sides of the puck.

The 2017-18 Islanders had a bad defense AND bad goaltending that contributed to them allowing 296 goals in an NHL season. That's was 4th worst goals against of the lockout era up to that point.

The very next season with zero additions on defense and a coaching change they wound up becoming the best defensive team in the NHL. Nobody in 17-18 would have said that they were an elite defensive team yet a year later they were despite losing Tavares and Calvin de Haan one of their top 4 defencemen. Their only additions were Robin Lehner, Matt Martin and Leo Komarov.

 

[Stephen]

Those handful of teams drafted those elite defencemen. Toronto hasn't been in position to draft such guys except for Rielly. Had we begun the rebuild a year later, maybe we fall into Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen in 2017 but we didn't so we make due with what we have.

Hockey isn't football where one set of players specialize in defense and another set of players specialize in offense. If you are a specialist of some sort you typically are a bottom of the lineup player. Everyone on the team has a role to play on both sides of the puck.

The 2017-18 Islanders had a bad defense AND bad goaltending that contributed to them allowing 296 goals in an NHL season. That's was 4th worst goals against of the lockout era up to that point.

The very next season with zero additions on defense and a coaching change they wound up becoming the best defensive team in the NHL. Nobody in 17-18 would have said that they were an elite defensive team yet a year later they were despite losing Tavares and Calvin de Haan one of their top 4 defencemen. Their only additions were Robin Lehner, Matt Martin and Leo Komarov.

Yeah it actually can be...

For example, David Poile has traditionally leaned very heavily into defense with his team building in Nashville, with guys like Josi, Weber, Ekholm, Ellis, Subban, Suter, Seth Jones, Timonen, Hamhuis forming the foundation of his team with relatively pop gun forwards. In Washington, he had the same formula under Poile in the 80s and 90s with guys like Langway, Stevens, Murphy, Hatcher, Cote, Rouse, Iafrate, Calle Johansson, Gonchar.

Anaheim leaned very heavily into defense after the Pronger-Niedermayer cup run too, producing the likes of Fowler, Vatanen, Gardiner, Schultz, Manson, Lindholm and Theodore in the early 2010s.

This isn't an accident. These teams are literally building from the blueline, it's relatively cost effective because defensemen typically don't get $10 million + salaries no matter who they are and it's never going to be the focus here in Toronto.

 

[TheRumble]

Yeah it actually can be...

For example, David Poile has traditionally leaned very heavily into defense with his team building in Nashville, with guys like Josi, Weber, Ekholm, Ellis, Subban, Suter, Seth Jones, Timonen, Hamhuis forming the foundation of his team with relatively pop gun forwards. In Washington, he had the same formula under Poile in the 80s and 90s with guys like Langway, Stevens, Murphy, Hatcher, Cote, Rouse, Iafrate, Calle Johansson, Gonchar.

Anaheim leaned very heavily into defense after the Pronger-Niedermayer cup run too, producing the likes of Fowler, Vatanen, Gardiner, Schultz, Manson, Lindholm and Theodore in the early 2010s.

This isn't an accident. These teams are literally building from the blueline, it's relatively cost effective because defensemen typically don't get $10 million + salaries no matter who they are and it's never going to be the focus here in Toronto.

I have zero clue why you'd bold my comment about hockey not being a specialist sport like the NFL and then reply with this. I don't even understand your thesis here.

My point is you don't need elite defencemen to be a good defensive team if you install a system that maxmizes talent. It certainly doesn't hurt to have elite defencemen but they're not required.

 

[andora]

I've looked this up before and where we struggle harshly is High Danger chances. The saves and save percentage is terrible - where does that take you?

- give up less HDC - they are already very strong in this area
- play stronger in that specific area?
- alter your structure a bit because of goaltending in HDC?
- get a better goalie (athletically/scrambling/battler)
- something else

Campbell faced 290 HD shots - for goalies with atleast 1500 minutes played he faced the 22nd most. 3rd worst save percentage in that group.

here is that group (highest HD SV% descending) - Who can handle this system?

	Player	Team	GP	TOI	HD Shots Against	HD Saves	HD Goals Against	HDSV%
1​	Ilya Sorokin	NYI	52	2508:10:00	366	323	43	0.883
2​	Igor Shesterkin	NYR	53	2474:01:00	360	312	48	0.867
3​	Ville Husso	STL	40	1891:58:00	271	235	36	0.867
4​	Darcy Kuemper	COL	57	2576:25:00	357	308	49	0.863
5​	Jake Oettinger	DAL	48	2203:45:00	278	238	40	0.856
6​	Sergei Bobrovsky	FLA	54	2460:06:00	369	315	54	0.854
7​	Thatcher Demko	VAN	64	3003:34:00	420	358	62	0.852
8​	Jacob Markstrom	CGY	63	2979:21:00	366	312	54	0.852
9​	Vitek Vanecek	WSH	42	1861:00:00	234	199	35	0.85
10​	Anton Forsberg	OTT	46	2064:01:00	303	257	46	0.848
11​	Jordan Binnington	STL	37	1728:13:00	250	212	38	0.848
12​	Elvis Merzlikins	CBJ	59	2687:42:00	419	353	66	0.842
13​	Jonathan Quick	L.A	46	2145:22:00	298	251	47	0.842
14​	Frederik Andersen	CAR	52	2394:31:00	311	261	50	0.839
15​	Alex Nedeljkovic	DET	59	2638:06:00	427	358	69	0.838
16​	Juuse Saros	NSH	67	3060:18:00	370	309	61	0.835
17​	John Gibson	ANA	56	2629:16:00	391	326	65	0.834
18​	Karel Vejmelka	ARI	52	2255:55:00	374	312	62	0.834
19​	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	66	3126:22:00	468	389	79	0.831
20​	Carter Hart	PHI	45	2103:30:00	308	256	52	0.831
21​	Cal Petersen	L.A	37	1771:00:00	242	201	41	0.831
22​	Robin Lehner	VGK	44	2121:39:00	302	249	53	0.825
23​	Tristan Jarry	PIT	58	2784:03:00	370	305	65	0.824
24​	Andrei Vasilevskiy	T.B	63	2988:27:00	402	331	71	0.823
25​	Jake Allen	MTL	35	1567:07:00	248	204	44	0.823
26​	Mikko Koskinen	EDM	45	2117:01:00	285	234	51	0.821
27​	Scott Wedgewood	ARI, DAL, N.J	37	1739:43:00	267	219	48	0.82
28​	Linus Ullmark	BOS	41	1833:27:00	199	163	36	0.819
29​	Marc-Andre Fleury	CHI, MIN	56	2627:19:00	321	262	59	0.816
30​	James Reimer	S.J	48	2145:28:00	275	224	51	0.815
31​	Jeremy Swayman	BOS	41	1912:04:00	195	159	36	0.815
32​	Cam Talbot	MIN	49	2270:10:00	262	212	50	0.809
33​	Craig Anderson	BUF	31	1529:25:00	217	175	42	0.806
34​	Sam Montembeault	MTL	38	1525:51:00	244	196	48	0.803
35​	Kaapo Kahkonen	MIN, S.J	36	1556:55:00	191	153	38	0.801
36​	Martin Jones	PHI	35	1621:31:00	240	191	49	0.796
37​	Jack Campbell	TOR	49	2296:46:00	290	228	62	0.786
38​	Ilya Samsonov	WSH	44	1909:19:00	251	197	54	0.785
39​	Philipp Grubauer	SEA	55	2537:40:00	301	233	68	0.774

 

[Stephen]

I have zero clue why you'd bold my comment about hockey not being a specialist sport like the NFL and then reply with this. I don't even understand your thesis here.

My point is you don't need elite defencemen to be a good defensive team if you install a system that maxmizes talent. It certainly doesn't hurt to have elite defencemen but they're not required.

If you don't get the point that some franchises actually focus on elite defensemen more than Toronto in their builds, I'm not sure what to tell you. Toronto could have easily drafted defensemen with their Nylander and Marner picks, but like I said, that's not the way you're going to build a team in this market because there's a premium on offensive driven star power here.

 

[TheRumble]

If you don't get the point that some franchises actually focus on elite defensemen more than Toronto in their builds, I'm not sure what to tell you. Toronto could have easily drafted defensemen with their Nylander and Marner picks, but like I said, that's not the way you're going to build a team in this market because there's a premium on offensive driven star power here.

You're constructing a counter to an argument I never made. Lemme recap this for you.

Me: The Leafs are a great defensive team. Here are stats.

You: No because they don't have great defencemen and their goals against

Me: You don't need great defencemen to be a great defensive team. See: 2017-18 Islanders vs 2018-19 Islanders.

You:???

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs ranked 18th in goals against last season.

The Leafs are a top defensive team that got the 8th worst goaltending in the league last year.

There are a handful of teams that concentrate their resources on having great individuals on defense that give them strength from the back end. Defensemen don’t make as much money as scoring forwards generally so you get more bang for the buck

The top end defenseman pay scale is lower than forwards because they tend to bring lesser and less consistent impact than the top forwards. You don't get better bang for your buck from defensemen. If anything, it's usually the opposite.

Toronto has never done this and never will because I doubt people would pay Scotiabank Arena prices for a mid 2000s Nashville.

Toronto would sell out regardless of what style of game they play.

 

[TheRumble]

Toronto would sell out regardless of what style of game they play.

Yeah that was a weird comment by the OP as well. The Leafs sold out seats during the brief Mike Murphy era when they ran the neutral zone trap.

There are more Leaf fans living in the GTA than there are people living in Montreal.

 

[Stephen]

You're constructing a counter to an argument I never made. Lemme recap this for you.

Me: The Leafs are a great defensive team. Here are stats.

You: No because they don't have great defencemen and their goals against

Me: You don't need great defencemen to be a great defensive team. See: 2017-18 Islanders vs 2018-19 Islanders.

You:???

My initial comment was a team style construction method based on market type and ticket prices charged.

Big markets charge more money for offensive star power. Small markets build defense for salary purposes. And those factors mean Toronto will never construct David Poile type teams like Nashville. That’s the thesis.

You made a bunch of comments about the quality of the Leafs blueline. I don’t agree that it’s a good blueline both as a unit and as individuals. Agree to disagree.

 

[Stephen]

The Leafs are a top defensive team that got the 8th worst goaltending in the league last year.

The top end defenseman pay scale is lower than forwards because they tend to bring lesser and less consistent impact than the top forwards. You don't get better bang for your buck from defensemen. If anything, it's usually the opposite.

Toronto would sell out regardless of what style of game they play.

Toronto most likely would sell out any style the play but modern regimes have made a point to build on offensive talent. Still doesn’t change the psychology that they like selling goal scoring and home runs in this town. That’s why I don’t think we’ll see an ultra defensive blueline and goalie heavy Leaf team or a Jays team all on pure pitching.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

My initial comment was a team style construction method based on market type and ticket prices charged.

Big markets charge more money for offensive star power. Small markets build defense for salary purposes. And those factors mean Toronto will never construct David Poile type teams like Nashville. That’s the thesis.

You made a bunch of comments about the quality of the Leafs blueline. I don’t agree that it’s a good blueline both as a unit and as individuals. Agree to disagree.

Toronto should have drafted D and goalies first. For salary cap cost containment reasons

 

[Dekes For Days]

Toronto most likely would sell out any style the play but modern regimes have made a point to build on offensive talent. Still doesn’t change the psychology that they like selling goal scoring and home runs in this town. That’s why I don’t think we’ll see an ultra defensive blueline and goalie heavy Leaf team or a Jays team all on pure pitching.

You're making a lot of assumptions about the psychology of their team building based on nothing, and your thesis centers around something that isn't even true - the idea that they need to do that to sell tickets. They're built up on offensive talent because that's the hand they were dealt based on the best available choices at their picks. We've since built up our defense to match it, because you can do that a lot easier than offense without drafting high. I'm not sure why anybody would think investing hard into defense would be more beneficial, especially when we don't have a top tier goalie.

Big markets charge more money for offensive star power. Small markets build defense for salary purposes.

All markets build all types of styles. Big markets charge more money because they're big markets, and that's how demand works, not because of their style of play. If anything, the argument is backwards, because if the argument is that offense sells, then the small markets would be the ones building for offense to push sales. Big markets don't need that.

 

[Fogelhund]

Toronto should have drafted D and goalies first. For salary cap cost containment reasons

Assuming Mo, Sandin and Lilj are in our lineup, that's half of the D core being drafted by us. We have a disproportionate number of signed D, compared to signed F, that we've drafted, not in the NHL currently. So, we've drafted more D. Goalies we drafted some, and signed aggressively. The problem has been that the odds of goalies working out, just isn't very good, beyond first round selections. We haven't been in much of a position to draft such top Goalie prospects, the Askarov, Knight.... You look back at our drafts, and they only guy that seems to stick out as maybe should have grabbed him, is Carter Hart, who at best has been a mixed bag in his career, or a bit of good play, and some really bad play. I mean, beyond missing on some fifth and sixth round picks, which really is just good/bad luck.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I mean, beyond missing on some fifth and sixth round picks, which really is just good/bad luck.

You aren't wrong.

In my slow rebuild mentality, I draft and trade for many goalies, before I start drafting the salary inflating positions.

And D take longer to mature, so I draft them early as well.

I don't acquire 11 AAV Tavares early in my rebuild. So I have money to acquire finishing pieces.

We are already in a situation where sticking with Kadri is better than Tavares. Ouch.

Most rebuilds fail.
Like the Leafs rebuild has failed.

The shitshow happens next year when our poor goalie is such a weak link we are in big trouble.

 

[TheRumble]

You aren't wrong.

In my slow rebuild mentality, I draft and trade for many goalies, before I start drafting the salary inflating positions.

And D take longer to mature, so I draft them early as well.

I don't acquire 11 AAV Tavares early in my rebuild. So I have money to acquire finishing pieces.

We are already in a situation where sticking with Kadri is better than Tavares. Ouch.

This is a stupid philosophy.