He’s not worth that on his current contract. He’s trending for less than 40 points this season, injuries are piling up, and he plays a low IQ game. Projects more as a winger even though his faceoff percentage has gone up this year. He could be a good reclamation project but not someone worth giving up significant assets for. People are saying he’s having trouble going to the middle and near the slot, not playing anywhere like his 70 point season. He’s been playing a lot on the perimeter. This is a player and contract that very well could be an albatross and it’s got 5 more years.
Normally, I would agree with you. I think that's kind of the reasons I was saying here that I think he's worth the chance at the rough level of value I laid out (Rasmussen, B-Level Prospect, 1st 2025).
At 7.1M over the next five seasons and the rising cap (approx. 95M next year, up to 113M). That puts him next year 7.4% of cap (a little high), and later by the end of his deal around 6.5% of the cap. If you were to make a comparable UFA signing at those numbers, if we were to 'buy' a guy at the lower cap numbers (81, 82, 83, 85, 88) etc. - you end up with a low end and high end range as percentage Palat, Killhorn, Bertuzzi, etc. - that tier of player that's out there. So, the 'opportunity cost' of using that money somewhere else, I don't think there is a ton of awesome players out there in a FA situation who I would be excited to spend 6-7% of our effective cap on (not including D at this point, but I don't see that as our point).
So the rising cap kind of reframes the risk here for me. That in the worse case, he's basically Andrew Copp at his deal, a half ppg C/W. The upside here is - he's 23yo, has a great frame, excellent skating, has potted 30g already in his young career. So we can definitely say he has the talent to be an impact player. So its either a health issue (like you suggested), a mental issue (maybe) or a situational issue (it's BUF).
So say he's at his absolute bottom, I'm basically eating an avg. 6.5% contract over it's lifetime for a half ppg, 23yo, 6'3 200+ C/W (which after two years would probably still have trade value). Absolute peak upside? - I'm looking at a 70pt Top Six C who on a crazy good deal in his prime. Middle line scenario? Top six scoring winger with size whose good for 50+ at a reasonable contract. I don't think it's without risk, I agree with the hesitancy and why i wasn't into this idea before. But with the cap news, and having Kasper breakout, the downside risk seems manageable. And honestly if he was living up to his deal, he wouldn't be available so this is kind of the trade risk you need to take to get a 23yo potentially high value Center.
