How do you fix the Wings?

[dalem177]

Can one of you smart guys explain PDO/shooting percentage to me? I understand the general idea from context ("they can't sustain this rate of offense) but is it literally just how often someone takes a pop at the net with the puck on their stick?

 

[Henkka]

On-Ice PDO is like oveall sh% + sv%.

Only shots on goal and shots against goal.

 

[dalem177]

On-Ice PDO is like oveall sh% + sv%.

Only shots on goal and shots against goal.

And sh% is? and sv% is? (I think I get sv% but still...)

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Necas wants out of Carolina because he doesn't want to play a defensively responsible game. He is not a fit in Detroit. I can see Bruins being a good match for him since they can shelter him.

I'm not even sure how Berggren is going to fit on the team since he is weak in the defensive side of the puck.

Is Husso LTIR for 2025/26? He's a good goalie if he gets healthy. Wings are set in goal if he's healthy.

I think Husso’s contract is up after the 2024/25 season, so he’ll be gone after this coming season.

 

[norrisnick]

And sh% is? and sv% is? (I think I get sv% but still...)

SH% is shooting percentage. IE Bob took 10 shots and 2 went in, so he has a 20% SH%. That is high.
SV% is save percentage. IE Bob faced 10 shots and 2 went in, so he has an 80% SV%. That is very low.

PDO is the two added together when a player is on the ice. Anything above 100 is considered above average. Because the expectation is that players would have an average number of shots go in and saves being made while they are on the ice. Really good players/'teams can skew the numbers, but even good players can be the victim of a lucky shot going in. That's why PDO is often referred to as the "luck" stat and there is a heavy push that excessively high PDO numbers will regress, because average is average for a reason and highs necessitate lows.

To illustrate the "luck" factor above. Justin Holl was the runaway leader in PDO for the Wings with a 105.2. Veleno was last with 98.2 (Raymond was 3rd from the bottom with a 99.3). That only 6 Wings had a PDO below 100 would be considered fairly lucky. Especially with 2 of them being Czarnik and Kostin who barely played.

 

[FMichael]

Necas wants out of Carolina because he doesn't want to play a defensively responsible game. He is not a fit in Detroit. I can see Bruins being a good match for him since they can shelter him.

I'm not even sure how Berggren is going to fit on the team since he is weak in the defensive side of the puck.

Is Husso LTIR for 2025/26? He's a good goalie if he gets healthy. Wings are set in goal if he's healthy.

The way this team plays I’d say Lalonde isn’t a good fit either.

 

[dalem177]

SH% is shooting percentage. IE Bob took 10 shots and 2 went in, so he has a 20% SH%. That is high.
SV% is save percentage. IE Bob faced 10 shots and 2 went in, so he has an 80% SV%. That is very low.

PDO is the two added together when a player is on the ice. Anything above 100 is considered above average. Because the expectation is that players would have an average number of shots go in and saves being made while they are on the ice. Really good players/'teams can skew the numbers, but even good players can be the victim of a lucky shot going in. That's why PDO is often referred to as the "luck" stat and there is a heavy push that excessively high PDO numbers will regress, because average is average for a reason and highs necessitate lows.

To illustrate the "luck" factor above. Justin Holl was the runaway leader in PDO for the Wings with a 105.2. Veleno was last with 98.2 (Raymond was 3rd from the bottom with a 99.3). That only 6 Wings had a PDO below 100 would be considered fairly lucky. Especially with 2 of them being Czarnik and Kostin who barely played.

Ohhhhh-kay. So when I'm reading posts and articles about "PDO eventually regressing back to the mean" - as I did all last season for the Wings - it's just a statistical confirmation of the phrase "they are punching above their weight".

Thanks guys!

 

[Henkka]

Ohhhhh-kay. So when I'm reading posts and articles about "PDO eventually regressing back to the mean" - as I did all last season for the Wings - it's just a statistical confirmation of the phrase "they are punching above their weight".

Thanks guys!

It will regress, from crazy high/low numbers, but good team can continuously have 102.0% average numbers and bad teams can be continuously bad with 97-98% numbers.

Player quality and system play will matter.

And I'm only discussing about team PDO numbers. I hope no one does look on any individual PDO. There's nothing to find.

 

[HisNoodliness]

It will regress, from crazy high/low numbers, but good team can continuously have 102.0% average numbers and bad teams can be continuously bad with 97-98% numbers.

Player quality and system play will matter.

And I'm only discussing about team PDO numbers. I hope no one does look on any individual PDO. There's nothing to find.

Less than individual PDO being useless, I just think it makes way more sense to talk about shooting percentage or save percentage with individuals most of the time. "This defenseman is amazing this year, they never get scored on." "Yeah his on-ice save percentage is 98%, that's not going to continue."
"I can't believe that this start forward only had 60 points this year." "
"His on ice shooting percentage this year was 3%. He'll be fine next year when that regresses to the mean."

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Sign Zadina to a 1yr 8.8M 'prove it deal'

 

[SirloinUB]

I don't know. I think the length is a positive. It doesn't rope us into a bunch of years we might not want, and it gives us the opportunity to negotiate a smaller deal down the road. Or just walk away. Locking into a 30 yr old Trouba for two years is more appealing than the six or seven years a UFA option this summer might walk away with.

A little bit tangent but something I think about semi regular is that fans do not do a good job adjusting value perceptions about existing contracts. Trouba on a 2 year contract would be a nice fit for this team.

I think people have a tendency to latch on to the initial term. People freak out about the "negative value" of guys like Copp and Chairot. The reality is they would both get more term as UFAs this summer than they currently have on their contracts. Chairot with 2 years remaining would be a valued asset across the league.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

lets go after guentzel, 8.65 x 7 years bring him to 36, he will age nicely doesnt play a physical game
also trade Holl + prospect like Buium or wallinder for Zetterlund

Guenztel - Larkin - Raymond
Debrincat - Danielson - Berggren
Fabbri - Compher - Zetterlund
Ras - Copp - Fischer

Walman - Seider
Edvinsson - Chiarot
Maatta - Johansson
Petry

replace fabbri with mazur or Kasper the year after

 

[saska sault]

lets go after guentzel, 8.65 x 7 years bring him to 36, he will age nicely doesnt play a physical game
also trade Holl + prospect like Buium or wallinder for Zetterlund

Guenztel - Larkin - Raymond
Debrincat - Danielson - Berggren
Fabbri - Compher - Zetterlund
Ras - Copp - Fischer

Walman - Seider
Edvinsson - Chiarot
Maatta - Johansson
Petry

replace fabbri with mazur or Kasper the year after

Zero interest in Guentzel at 7 years, which unfortunately is what it would take to get him. Also think there's close to zero chance Danielson is on the roster next year, never mind 2nd line C. Kasper will be hard pressed to get regular time and he's a year further into development with the team.

 

[19 for president]

A little bit tangent but something I think about semi regular is that fans do not do a good job adjusting value perceptions about existing contracts. Trouba on a 2 year contract would be a nice fit for this team.

I think people have a tendency to latch on to the initial term. People freak out about the "negative value" of guys like Copp and Chairot. The reality is they would both get more term as UFAs this summer than they currently have on their contracts. Chairot with 2 years remaining would be a valued asset across the league.

This is why I'm interested in Trouba especially if we can off load a contract back or get a little bit of retention. I don't necessarily think he is better than Pesce or Roy currently but I would much rather have vet on a 2 year deal than a 5-7 year deal. Trouba on a 2 year deal sets up really well for Ed's next contract. I mean we are talking about Seider getting potentially an 8x8 or 8.5 this offseason. While I think Ed's development will take a bit longer than Seiders, I could easily see him looking at 7 mil in a couple of years.

Chiarot probably does have ok value after his rebound season last year. If he has another decent season this year he would definitely have value next season on 1 year deal. Dmen usually have more value then fans think.

Copp is still a pretty meh deal but I think its dealable with some retention. I do think GMs have absolute mental blocks on gritty UFAs and two-way center UFAs. They sign them to big deals that rarely if ever age well, and they make the same mistake over and over again. They aren't a terrible add on a cup contender but I'm not a huge fan on up and coming teams.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

lets go after guentzel, 8.65 x 7 years bring him to 36, he will age nicely doesnt play a physical game
also trade Holl + prospect like Buium or wallinder for Zetterlund

Guenztel - Larkin - Raymond
Debrincat - Danielson - Berggren
Fabbri - Compher - Zetterlund
Ras - Copp - Fischer

Walman - Seider
Edvinsson - Chiarot
Maatta - Johansson
Petry

replace fabbri with mazur or Kasper the year after

I’m not mad at this. Though I’d like to see a major upgrade on 2RD. Lose Maatta and Fabbri to make a run at Pesce, Montour or Roy.

 

[Frk It]

Guentzel impressed me quite a bit in the playoffs, I’m a bit more open to that than I was.

I’d still be a lot more concerned about upgrading the blue line first and foremost. I’d make sure I got one or Montour/Pesce/Roy to help bolster that right side.

Then I’d look at a Toffoli, Teravainen, or whoever up front to try to add some punch of a different element.

 

[Winger98]

Guentzel-Larkin-Raymond
Debrincat-Compher-Danielson
Ras-Copp-Kaspar
Mazur-Veleno-Berggren

 

[norrisnick]

Guentzel-Larkin-Raymond
Debrincat-Compher-Danielson
Ras-Copp-Kaspar
Mazur-Veleno-Berggren

If, and it's a big if, Kasper and Danielson make the team I'd swap them on those lines. I'd prefer to have L/R centers to help out with faceoffs. It doesn't work well to have 3 righties on one line and 3 lefties on the other. That and with these particular lines, that 2nd line could use Kasper's jam and that 3rd could use Danielson's skating.

 

[Winger98]

If, and it's a big if, Kasper and Danielson make the team I'd swap them on those lines. I'd prefer to have L/R centers to help out with faceoffs. It doesn't work well to have 3 righties on one line and 3 lefties on the other. That and with these particular lines, that 2nd line could use Kasper's jam and that 3rd could use Danielson's skating.

I'd be shocked if both are on the team but I like throwing the idea out there., and I think it's likely either gets started on the wing and moved to center later. However you want to put that top9 together, I think could be interesting.

I was wanting to dump Fabbri as well and slide Mazur in there, but Fabbri will probably get dinged up and it'll happen by January regardless. I don't expect any of this to happen, though.

 

[Inspiration]

Nate Danielson had a ... decent? ... D+1 season in the WHL, went the AHL and by all accounts looked like he needed to add a lot of strength to compete against men - and I see a multiple people immediately penciling him in for a top-6 role in the NHL next year? I'm sure he'll fine long-term, but I highly doubt the organization views him ahead of Mazur or Kasper in terms of competing for NHL minutes next year.

 

[Snuggs]

Nate Danielson had a ... decent? ... D+1 season in the WHL, went the AHL and by all accounts looked like he needed to add a lot of strength to compete against men - and I see a multiple people immediately penciling him in for a top-6 role in the NHL next year? I'm sure he'll fine long-term, but I highly doubt the organization views him ahead of Mazur or Kasper in terms of competing for NHL minutes next year.

Who's saying he looked weak?

 

[Nnowski]

Who's saying he looked weak?

He definitely didn't look strong... But that's not surprising, he's a skinnier kid who's never played against men before. Thinking he is going to make the team with his playstyle is wishful thinking

 

[Our Lady Peace]

I don't think this team improves on its biggest weakness this season -keeping goals out of the net- without upgrading to a legitimate, reliable top 4 RHD at minimum. Ideally one that can carry a pair's defensive load. That burden HAS to be taken off Seider in the top 4 and then not also entirely placed upon Edvinsson this early in his career

That, and a goaltender that doesn't have us guessing if he's gonna let in 1 goal or 5 that night

My realistic/hopeful acquisitions are signing Pesce and trading for Markstrom. Then of course offloading Holl and/or Petry

Signing Guentzel would be real nice especially if we lose Kane

 

[Snuggs]

He definitely didn't look strong... But that's not surprising, he's a skinnier kid who's never played against men before. Thinking he is going to make the team with his playstyle is wishful thinking

Lol, I thought he looked... Lost, not weak. " Not strong" is a good answer. lol. I'm not gonna act like he's the most swoll out there. I just haven't seen many write that he looked weak. An he said... by all accounts. I hadn't really been seeing/hearing that but... ok... Maybe.

To me... it looked like he stepped onto a team with a bunch of guys he never played with yet... Not saying it wasn't an adjustment, but weak? I don't think the kids weak, idk, hard to say if he's "strong" either cause his playing time wasn't much. He didn't look particularly weak in camp last year.

Like Kasper played against men, in Swedeen obviously had to adjust to the physical play here in North America, idk if Danielson will have to do that. North American hockey, (even young) is more physical.

I guess I just didn't catch much from his 1 game stint in the AHL as signal either way. He got thrown into a rough spot with them in the playoffs already and all. It's not like he got to cherry pick his ice time against bad teams in the AHL or even practice much with his team-mates/coach.

 

[Henkka]

We can add one 6M player (maybe Kane, maybe somebody else), if we don't trade anyone. Other extensions will fill the cap. That's the realism.

But if Yzerman could pull some miracle trades like:

Määttä + pick/prospect for Matt Roy's rights...

and

Fabbri + prospect/pick for Guentzel's rights....

... then this is a new (money)ball game.