How Close in Talent Will Team USA be to Team Canada at Next International Meeting With NHLERS?

[Gary Nylund]

I don't really care much TBH. International hockey used to be so awesome but ever since the USSR broke up and the worlds best play in the same league, it's nowhere near as exciting. Canada's still the best but on any given day, there's 5 or so countries that could best them. In a tournament it's roughly even between Canada vs the field. It's been that way for some time now and it will probably be some time before it changes.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Sure, even a beer league team COULD win a best-on-best tourney. It is extremely unlikely though. I don't think Canada's number 4 or number 3 team would have much of a chance. Number 2 team perhaps would.

Significantly bigger gap exists between Canada's #2 vs US 1, than Canada #1 vs US #1.

In fact I would posit there is a smaller gap between
US #2 vs Canada #2 as with each countries #1 squads.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Depends when that would be. Hypothetically if it’s the Olympics in 2022 Canada’s D would be fine with Doughty and AP anchoring it with Reilly, Chabot, Parayko, etc.

it gets a bit more questionable once AP and DD age out. USA future D core is better than what Canada is producing.

right side would then be Hamilton (2011), Parayko (2012), Dumba (2012), and Makar (2017)
Left side would be Reilly (2012), Chabot (2015), and Morrissey (2013)?

who else would be a future Canadian Dman?

USA with Jones, McAvoy, Warenski, Q Hughes, Trouba, Fox, Fowler, Slavin.

You're missing John Carlson on defense for USA.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Canada would have the better roster, but at some point it falls into the law of diminishing returns.

And even if Canada had a slightly better player at every position... The game impact is hard to judge. Team USA would still be elite. Canada would have the best player on either side with McDavid, though.

 

[LarKing]

We have a good enough team where I actually think we can match up and play a fairly even game. Canada has much better depth but it’s not like ours is awful and their bottom six playing slightly better doesn’t have as big of an impact as say their first line dominating ours.

Our defense is fantastic and probably only second to Sweden.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Here would be US talent pool for 2022

G - Gibson, Hellebuyck, Bishop, Quick,

RD - Jones, McAvoy, Carlson, Pesce, Trouba, Petry

LD - McDonagh, Werenski, Slavin, Fowler, Suter, Hughes

C - Eichel, Matthews, Larkin, Schmaltz, Trocheck,
Nelson, Hayes, Hughes, Stastny, Coyle

W - Kane, Gaudreau, Lee, Guentzel, Connor, Wheeler, Tkachuk (2), Oshie, Kreider, Pacioretty, Saad, Keller, Parise, Boeser, Zucker, Tuch

Sure I have missed 1 or 2

 

[newfy]

Canada MIGHT be better on paper, but until you play the games there is no way to tell.

Canada is definitely better on paper, not might be. I think if they play 10 times Canada probably wins 7 or 8 but the USA have enough talent to take some games. There might be 3 or so players that would make Canada on the USA team

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Canada is ahead and will remain so. Great depth, in particular at center which is the most critical position and one where the U.S. has lagged behind (getting better though). Here's a roster I posted recently in the international tournaments forum:

Goaltenders (x3):

John Gibson
Connor Hellebucyk
Ben Bishop

Defensemen (x8):

John Carlson-Charlie McAvoy
Jaccob Slavin-Brett Pesce
Seth Jones-Zach Werenski
Ryan Suter-Quinn Hughes

Forwards (x12):

Johnny Gaudreau-Auston Matthews-Patrick Kane
Matt Tkachuk-Jack Eichel-Brock Boeser
Kyle Connor-Jack Hughes-Jake Guentzel
Brady Tkachuk-Dylan Larkin-Blake Wheeler

Very competitive team and under the right circumstances can certainly win a best on best tournament.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Canada's B and C teams would never win against the best international teams. Just look at the World Championships. I don't know why people keep bringing this up.

As far as the US/Canada matchup, the main concern I would have for Canada is in net. Since 2008 only two Canadian goaltenders have won the Vezina, Holtby and Price, and both of them are rapidly declining with no help in sight. Canada is no longer producing superstar goaltending.

Canada B team could beat anyone in one game but absolute underdogs against Sweden, US, Russia.
No way are they beating 2 out of those 3 in Medal
Round play.

 

[Cotton]

Keep in mind Canada's prospect lull is normalizing again, just as was expected, which indicates the US wasn't taking over but just getting a bumper crop much like the Czechs did in the 90's and the Finn "goaltending factory" era of the early 2000's.

The next several drafts are Canadian heavy and including a couple of phenoms in Wright and Savoie. So be it 2022 or beyond the US hasn't really closed the gap any.

Better question would be how close in talent the US is to Finland.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Canada is definitely better on paper, not might be. I think if they play 10 times Canada probably wins 7 or 8 but the USA have enough talent to take some games. There might be 3 or so players that would make Canada on the USA team

I can name 6:

G Gibson

D Jones Carlson

F Kane, Eichel, Matthews

 

[Cotton]

I think 1 American C could make it (Eichel). But yeah, there's definitely a gap at many positions when it comes to forward depth.

I doubt it, but if 1 would it would be Matthews. He's 56% on the draw and a top 3 goal scorer in the league.

 

[newfy]

I can name 6:

G Gibson

D Jones Carlson

F Kane, Eichel, Matthews

Wasnt thinking of goalies so youre right on Gibson. I'm not convinced all 3 of those forwards are making it though. Eichel and Matthews would both have to move to the wing. I think Kane is a guarantee, the other 2 arent. So I'll give you 4 instead of 3 but I wasnt counting Gibson.

Down the middle Eichel and Matthews arent beating out Crosby, McDavid or Mackinnon and probably arent going as the fourth line center. Someone like O'Reilly would probably play there. They arent beating out Marchand or Bergeron on the top line for example, or Kane on the wing, are they guaranteed to make it over Stamkos or Point? Scheifele wouldbe in the mix with them, Huberdeau as well. Stone is a guy that would be on the 4th line over them.

I'm not sure they play the complete game Canada brings in the bottom 6 usually and I dont think theyre for sure top 6 players. Eichel being a righty would help him. So maybe 4 or 5 instead of 3 but thats counting Gibson

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Wasnt thinking of goalies so youre right on Gibson. I'm not convinced all 3 of those forwards are making it though. Eichel and Matthews would both have to move to the wing. I think Kane is a guarantee, the other 2 arent. So I'll give you 4 instead of 3 but I wasnt counting Gibson.

Down the middle Eichel and Matthews arent beating out Crosby, McDavid or Mackinnon and probably arent going as the fourth line center. Someone like O'Reilly would probably play there. They arent beating out Marchand or Bergeron on the top line for example, or Kane on the wing, are they guaranteed to make it over Stamkos or Point? Scheifele wouldbe in the mix with them, Huberdeau as well. Stone is a guy that would be on the 4th line over them.

I'm not sure they play the complete game Canada brings in the bottom 6 usually and I dont think theyre for sure top 6 players. Eichel being a righty would help him. So maybe 4 or 5 instead of 3 but thats counting Gibson

We are talking 2 years from now, not today. Eichel is
this season playing as the 3rd best center in the world.
Matthews slots into a wing slot w/0 a doubt.

Combined 23 Man Team:

G Holtby, Price, Gibson

D Pietrangelo, Parayko, Doughty,Jones, Carlson,
Werenski, Makar

F McDavid, Crosby, McKinnon, Eichel, Matthews, Bergeron, Toews, Stone, Marner, Tavares, Schiefele, O'Reilly, Kane

So thats IMO 7 not 6 US players.

 

[BlueBaron]

US will look good up front, great down the middle but a bit behind on D. They will be tough to beat.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Matthews and Eichel give them the best one-two punch down the middle since... ever?

Center depth has always been the difference. And an inexplicable fetish for the Johnsons.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Goalies are debatable.

John Gibson is definitely better than any Canadian goalie right now.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

None of the American centers make it. Patrick Kane for sure on wing with good cases for Wheeler and Gaudreau. Jones and Carlson on D. Goalies are debatable.

Eichel/Matthews not good enough to play for Team Canada? They might play wing on Team Canada but those guys can play on any hockey team in the world.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Close enough that a USA win would still be an upset but not a "Miracle."

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Canada is ahead and will remain so. Great depth, in particular at center which is the most critical position and one where the U.S. has lagged behind (getting better though). Here's a roster I posted recently in the international tournaments forum:

Goaltenders (x3):

John Gibson
Connor Hellebucyk
Ben Bishop

Defensemen (x8):

John Carlson-Charlie McAvoy
Jaccob Slavin-Brett Pesce
Seth Jones-Zach Werenski
Ryan Suter-Quinn Hughes

Forwards (x12):

Johnny Gaudreau-Auston Matthews-Patrick Kane
Matt Tkachuk-Jack Eichel-Brock Boeser
Kyle Connor-Jack Hughes-Jake Guentzel
Brady Tkachuk-Dylan Larkin-Blake Wheeler

Very competitive team and under the right circumstances can certainly win a best on best tournament.

Great forecast. I would probably include Brandon Carlo on D though. If the game happened in the next two years I might have to replace Huhes with a bigger more seasoned vet at center.

*Of course all hypothetical.

 

[Rebels57]

The US will have enough talent to beat anyone, IF they come together as a team quickly and play fast-paced hockey instead of their usual grindfest bullshit.

 

[Peiskos]

Canada still has superior depth and star power vs the US in every position and will for the foreseeable future.

US still remains the only major hockey country to not win a mens tournament in this current century. USA Hockey's last notable victory at the mens level came in the 1996 World Cup of Hockey (20th century)

Canada at the mens level has 1997, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2015 and 2016 IIHF World Championships since this, along with 2002, 2010 and 2014 Olympic Gold + 2016 wcoh (21st century)

Personally these kind of USA vs Canada comparison threads make me cringe for this very reason, the US has done absolutely nothing to prove they are anywhere near Canada at the mens level. I take this stance from the above tournament victories for Canada and non existent victories for the US in this current 21st century.

 

[StreetHawk]

Canada still has superior depth and star power vs the US in every position and will for the foreseeable future.

US still remains the only major hockey country to not win a mens tournament in this current century. USA Hockey's last notable victory at the mens level came in the 1996 World Cup of Hockey (20th century)

Canada at the mens level has 1997, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2015 and 2016 IIHF World Championships since this, along with 2002, 2010 and 2014 Olympic Gold + 2016 wcoh (21st century)

Personally these kind of USA vs Canada comparison threads make me cringe for this very reason, the US has done absolutely nothing to prove they are anywhere near Canada at the mens level. I take this stance from the above tournament victories for Canada and non existent victories for the US in this current 21st century.

No major international competition appears to be on the Horizon. Last World Cup was 2016. China Olympics very unlikely now. So, we're at best looking at a 2024 World Cup? Going to have to add 4 years to every player right now and figure out if they are still going to be playing well when 2024 rolls around.

If it's 2024, then you are chopping off the majority of players selected prior to the 2010 draft. 2009 draft class of Tavares will be 33 when September 2024 rolls around. See if they are surpassed by younger guys in their mid 20's.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Depends when that would be. Hypothetically if it’s the Olympics in 2022 Canada’s D would be fine with Doughty and AP anchoring it with Reilly, Chabot, Parayko, etc.

it gets a bit more questionable once AP and DD age out. USA future D core is better than what Canada is producing.

right side would then be Hamilton (2011), Parayko (2012), Dumba (2012), and Makar (2017)
Left side would be Reilly (2012), Chabot (2015), and Morrissey (2013)?

who else would be a future Canadian Dman?

USA with Jones, McAvoy, Warenski, Q Hughes, Trouba, Fox, Fowler, Slavin.

DeAngelo over Trouba or Fox AINEC

 

[Peiskos]

No major international competition appears to be on the Horizon. Last World Cup was 2016. China Olympics very unlikely now. So, we're at best looking at a 2024 World Cup? Going to have to add 4 years to every player right now and figure out if they are still going to be playing well when 2024 rolls around.

If it's 2024, then you are chopping off the majority of players selected prior to the 2010 draft. 2009 draft class of Tavares will be 33 when September 2024 rolls around. See if they are surpassed by younger guys in their mid 20's.

But all mens teams have some vets on it, being 33 isn't considered old, of course you'll have the vets such as Tavares 33, Stamkos 33, Pietrangelo 33, Seguin 31, Stone, 31, Huberdeau 30, Marchand 35 etc who will still be excellent players to contribute they'll be mixed in with the players below who will all be even better than they are now. Canada will have more than enough young elite talent by then who will be in their early to mid 20's aka their primes.

2024 :

Lafreniere - 22
MacKinnon - 28
McDavid - 26
Marner - 26
Barzal - 26
Point - 27
Konecny - 26
Horvat - 28
DeBrusk - 27
Reinhart - 28
Domi - 28
Mantha - 29
Girard - 25
Monahan - 29
Rielly - 29
Chabot - 26
Parayko - 30
Makar - 25
Hamilton - 30

Of course players also come up out of nowhere, plenty of names you can pick off the 2018 and 2020 World Junior gold winning teams, such as Barrett Hayton, Nolan Foote, Raphael Lavoie, Joe Veleno, Bowen Byram, etc who knows how good they'll be by 2024.