How Big is our "Window"?

[zeke]

A quick look at the NHL standings of today, shows the Leafs at #7 overall among the top 10 best teams in the standings, while sitting among 9 X USA based teams.

Best case scenario Leafs don't have to play any of those top 10 based USA teams regular season nor playoffs a single game on the way to the Cup, (lets go upsets), and worst case scenario we have to face max of 2 only, but only in the playoffs & rounds #3 and #4, when there are only 4 teams total remaining.

If the Leafs are going to end their +50 year Cup drought, then you have to love that window of opportunity for the Leafs to have the easiest path the Stanley Cup that this unique once in a lifetime post 1968 expansion has created.

Any time you can remove nearly 75% of the teams in the league from your path to the Cup, then count me in as I like those odds of success, which is causing some unbridled optimism on my part. Particularly coming from someone that witnessed the last one in 1967 in real time, and has been waiting over 50 years for the next one to occur.

14 teams at a .600+pts %.

4 from the North.
4 from the East.
3 from the central.
3 from the west.

 

[slozo]

I would say at least another 5 to 6 years, but likely longer.
Not only is most of our core very young, but we have a very good basket of prospects from which one or two will hopefully join the core in the not too distant future.

And yeah, if we later replace Tavares with McDavid or some other high level star . . . it'll continue on for quite a while, maybe a decade or more.

Unpredictable the future is, but good we are.

 

[Confucius]

Or it gives Matthews comfort that he won't be traded, or at least have some say in where he goes? The stupidity isn't management here....

Name a superstar who is eligible for an NMC who doesn't have one? I'll wait....

Mackinnon, Rantanen, Point

 

[kb]

Mackinnon

He wasn't MacKinnon when he signed his contract.

He was coming off 38 and 52 point seasons and wasn't even close to who he is today. He had worse ELC stats than Nylander.

 

[slozo]

I would say at least another 5 to 6 years, but likely longer.
Not only is most of our core very young, but we have a very good basket of prospects from which one or two will hopefully join the core in the not too distant future.

And yeah, if we later replace Tavares with McDavid or some other high level star . . . it'll continue on for quite a while, maybe a decade or more.

Unpredictable the future is, but good we will be for years.

 

[zeke]

He wasn't MacKinnon when he signed his contract.

He was coming off 38 and 52 point seasons and wasn't even close to who he is today. He had worse ELC stats than Nylander.

Speaking of which, Colorado is in quite the cap crunch next year with all of Makar Grubauer and Landeskog to sign (and Saad and Calvert ufa too), and a bunch more ufa the year after.

 

[Menzinger]

Mackinnon, Rantanen, Point

Point is on a bridge deal. He will have a year of rfa eligibility remaining and they can't get nmcs

 

[keonsbitterness]

The last time Leafs Cup competitive window was open and Leafs were successful was 1967 when the NHL was still the original 6 teams, before expansion the following year and doubling to 12 teams in 1967-68.

This year for all intents in purposes Leafs competitive window is going back in time, as if essentially the original 6 has expanded by just +3 teams overall that time to now be playing in 9 team NHL again.

Leafs have never won a Cup in a league greater than a 6 team NHL league and now they will be attempting it in a 9 team league (one of which is our Leafs).

Never likely going to get these odds again and never is Leafs window going to provide a better opportunity to end that drought going on 53 years and counting.

Should make for an interesting trade deadline for those teams playing the odds, and going all-in to take advantage of this unique situation.

 

[Funk21]

I actually believe our true window will open up in another year or two. Both Marner and Matthews will be resigned for 8 year max. Same with Rielly at a reasonable cap hit at 8-8.5.

The question is who will be are goalie and how much will McDavid be paid.

 

[hotpaws]

Speaking of which, Colorado is in quite the cap crunch next year with all of Makar Grubauer and Landeskog to sign (and Saad and Calvert ufa too), and a bunch more ufa the year after.

not really since they'll have 24m in cap space this off season and another 15m on top of that the following year

 

[zeke]

not really since they'll have 24m in cap space this off season and another 15m on top of that the following year

24m in capspace with a 12 man roster and no Makar grubauer Landeskog Saad Calvert.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

not really since they'll have 24m in cap space this off season and another 15m on top of that the following year

Interesting that Colorado's Cap situation is fine while needing to re-sign three core players, but the Leafs cap situation is terrible, despite being the inverse of Colorado's cap over the next two years ($11 million free this offseason, $24 million the offseason after) and only needing to sign two core players over that stretch, Hyman this offseason and Rielly the next.

 

[hotpaws]

24m in capspace with a 12 man roster and no Makar grubauer Landeskog Saad Calvert.

i doubt Sakic will be handing out 11m dollar deals so they'll have more than enough cap space to sign whoever they want to keep

 

[Twine Tickler]

3 of the big 4 will be re-signed for a similar caphit % for 8yrs after these contracts expire.

I don't think anyone disagrees when it comes to cap % the Leafs will offer the same percentage come extension time maybe slightly more/less depending on performance. But all and all it should be very close to the current cap structure for Willy + Mitch + Auston in terms of total cap percentage. I am just not 100% convinced they will want to stick around. They have every right to explore other options. Just like JT did, it had nothing to do with money. It had everything to do with winning, and coming home. If 4 more post seasons yield the same or comparable results, they more than likely will not have a great feeling about the team or city. I don't think it will be entirely about money at that point. Will they want to be scrutinized 24/7 for not winning it all? Especially when they can play in a sunny destination for the same amount of money and live like a normal human being? In my opinion, this new generation of player does not have the same loyalty as the NHL players of old. They've all very strategically given themselves the opportunity to explore UFA at almost the first eligible year. This was not done by coincidence. They are giving themselves an out, or giving themselves leverage. My hope is that they resign, but you're lying to yourself if you think its going to come down to just money.

 

[hotpaws]

Interesting that Colorado's Cap situation is fine while needing to re-sign three core players, but the Leafs cap situation is terrible, despite being the inverse of Colorado's cap over the next two years ($11 million free this offseason, $24 million the offseason after) and only needing to sign two core players over that stretch, Hyman this offseason and Rielly the next.

as i said they have 24 m to sign 3 core players none of which will be making anywhere near a 10 digit salary and that's before they could dump money to open up more cap space

and it's 24m this year and an additional 15 the following season to make 39m

as far as the Leafs go we have 12m with only 12 players signed for next year so yea we'll have no problem filling out the roster as long as we keep shopping at the scratch and dent dept.

 

[zeke]

as i said they have 24 m to sign 3 core players none of which will be making anywhere near a 10 digit salary and that's before they could dump money to open up more cap space

and it's 24m this year and an additional 15 the following season to make 39m

as far as the Leafs go we have 12m with only 12 players signed for next year so yea we'll have no problem filling out the roster as long as we keep shopping at the scratch and dent dept.

So you admit that Colorado will be forced to lose key players due to the cap and Toronto will not.

Agreed.

 

[hotpaws]

So you admit that Colorado will be forced to lose key players due to the cap and Toronto will not.

Agreed.

of course they'll be forced to lose key players , i'm thinking we'll be able to pick up Mac and Makar for Kerfoot-Hollowell-SDA and a 3rd

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

as i said they have 24 m to sign 3 core players none of which will be making anywhere near a 10 digit salary and that's before they could dump money to open up more cap space

and it's 24m this year and an additional 15 the following season to make 39m

as far as the Leafs go we have 12m with only 12 players signed for next year so yea we'll have no problem filling out the roster as long as we keep shopping at the scratch and dent dept.

Yeah it's really hampered us eh? Can't win hockey games by being frugal with bottom six and bottom pair player contracts and relying on prospects to fill low lineup roles. Now to take a big sip of coffee and check the standings...

 

[NoName]

Not closing immediately since the Leafs have already signed most of their big contract players, but here definitely isn't going to be a year as opportune as this one with the current division and playoff structure. Rielly's contract being up at the end of next year might be difficult to deal with under the cap however.

 

[Stephen]

I actually believe our true window will open up in another year or two. Both Marner and Matthews will be resigned for 8 year max. Same with Rielly at a reasonable cap hit at 8-8.5.

The question is who will be are goalie and how much will McDavid be paid.

I’m not so bullish on Rielly. I could see a plausible argument to be made to retool the blueline coinciding with his UFA departure where we bring in a Dougie Hamilton (this summer) or a Seth Jones, and a piece like Brodie or Muzzin gets shuffled around too. All depends on how much mileage the organization gets out of this current core.

I also don’t want to beat up on Nylander too much but while the team is performing the way you want them to in a prove it year, Willie hasn’t really jumped out at me like he’s playing himself deeper into the core and we’re pinching ourselves how unbelievably lucky we are to have him. I don’t know what the organizations feelings are on him going forward as he’s often one step forward one step back.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Young team playing well. You go for it now