Post-Game Talk: Holl wins it in OT. Leafs defeat the Sens 3-2

[Mr Hockey]

pretty much every one of his postgame interviews are like that, but in the one against Calgary (where he let in 4 goals on 18 shots) he said the whole team had to get better and start winning

That is true and its been like that since he has been a leaf

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed that the numbers for single games can be a little questionable, it's much better over a season in my opinion.

With that being said, I find it hard for anyone who knows the game to come out of last night's affair with a negative outlook on the team. They played well, and they only gave up 1 or 2 really danger chances against.

It seems like you may be projecting past organizational failures/dissapointment on to this years team, even though it's not the same team. If we had been on Ottawa's side, I would have been livid with the game - outplayed, outchanced and outworked resulting in a loss even though we were gift wrapped 2 unlikely gaffe goals.

Luckily, we were on the other side. The powerplay won't go 1 for 30 forever, and once it starts clicking again, the perception of how well we played will swing back the other way.

All stats are the same in that sense - the bigger the sample size, the more reliable the are.

I don't have a negative outlook on the team myself and I'm not projecting anything. I'm thrilled that we're much better defensively since Keefe took over and now we've added Brodie as well so there's much to be happy about.

The PP won't go 1 for 30 forever but it's also so far off of what it was earlier in the season to to me it's an area of concern and it's not the only one.

what's misleading about them? They aren't supposed to flawlessly predict the number of goals each team scores in every game

In small sample sizes (one game or even one series), the numbers don't match the eye test, simple as that.

What I believe some don't realize is that there's more to it then just expected goals and goaltending and that was my biggest issue with the numbers in our loss to CLB. So many said look at the expected goals, we were so awesome so blame the goalie. What's missing in that equation is how good a team is at converting on those opportunities and we did a poor job of it, Tavares missing the empty net being a prime example. Goes in the books as a high danger chance but it would be a mistake to think goaltending had anything to do with us not scoring that time around. Same goes for every time the puck is shot right in the goalies stomach etc.

Yea, and even the flaws with data recording are more or less negated the bigger the sample size.

It's why Toronto, Florida, Tampa, NYI, Colorado, Vegas, Carolina are all in the top ten for xGF% and Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Anaheim and Arizona are in the bottom ten.

There are other factors to look at of course, most importantly save%, but it's a fairly accurate description of what teams are controlling the play.

The bigger the sample size, the better the stat is for sure.

 

[Menzinger]

The possession is meaningless without penetration to areas where multiple opportunities occur, the possession is peripheral, it's not winning hockey and goalies will continue to look Vezina worthy against TO. TO has 21 goals in the last 9 games, barely more than 2 goals a game for and every goalie they face look far better than TO's goalies, the losses aren't an Andersen problem and trading for Granlund who is another pass first non aggressive player would be simply piling on the same old, same old.

If you look at the Leafs shot locations they are generally shooting from high danger areas. It's not as if they're just peppering goalies from the blue line.

I think it's fair to critique the main guys during this period for not being able to score like they are capable of (Matthews injury aside) - but even here they've had lots of great opportunities from close to the net, they just haven't all gone in

 

[Gallagbi]

I am seriously hoping that Tavares line is saving goals to score against the Oilers and Jets. They do everything right but can't buy a goal.

Would have been nice to see that OT move go in for Tavares

 

[zeke]

Teams are allowing the Leafs possession in the low/med danger areas because they are so skilled, and they are trying to block all the shooting lanes and keep them out of the high danger areas ... just random shooting will result in a turnover and a possible quick counter attack, teams have strategies when playing the Leafs

And yet the leafs rank at the top on shots in the danger areas.

 

[Joey Hoser]

If this place is anything like armchair GM or reddit, a lot of our fanbase has become incredibly jaded by past failures and are incorrectly tying our current team's chance of success to those past disappointments. It's the only way I can explain the negativity around a season where I am seeing a hugely improved team.

Last few years it really felt like we were on the other side - often outplayed, but opportunistic scoring was keeping us alive (at least during Babcock's days). It's nice to actually feel like the team can keep up with anyone 5v5. I expect the powerplay to improve on it 3% conversation rate it's accomplished over the last month, also.

Shitting on happiness and positively makes some people feel smart. It creates a narrative where everyone else is a fool, and you got it figured out.

These guys are going to cry that we will never win a cup, and then when we do, they'll cry that we won't win another one. Not sure why they follow the damn team in the first place.

 

[zeke]

Agreed.

Aside from our goaltending issues prior to Campbell coming off the IR, the only concerns I have are the sudden ineffectiveness of our special teams and our team shooting percentage. We have to get back to the league averages at the very least and we should be fine.

I kinda agree with you....but it's interesting that even with the drought it's the PP that still has scored moderately more than expected, while at 5v5 goals are moderately under expected goals.

Of course, overall at all strengths, the goals are pretty much bang on the Expected Goals, both elite top 5 numbers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Fun fact from last night:

The Leafs were recorded to have produced 25 High Danger Chances against the Sens which is the highest amount by any team in any game this year.

I'll admit I was distracted during the game so I could be wrong but to me, this seems fishy to put it mildly. At least offhand I'd say there have been games where we've been more dangerous offensively, and it seems highly unlikely that not just us but no team in the NHL this season has had even one game with more high danger chances. Maybe I'm wrong, would be curious to hear what others think who watched the game more closely.

 

[Gallagbi]

Fun fact from last night:

The Leafs were recorded to have produced 25 High Danger Chances against the Sens which is the highest amount by any team in any game this year.

We looked better vs. WPG to me, but we generated enough to double our regulation goals IMO. Few Lucky saves, a few good saves and not enough killer instinct. Pucks are going to the net instead of bar down.

We also had a LOT of chances in OT, which will help those stats along

 

[BlackTipReefer]

And yet the leafs rank at the top on shots in the danger areas.

So weird, eh? Leafs don't get shots from the dirty areas - also, first in shots from the dirty areas.

We looked better vs. WPG to me, but we generated enough to double our regulation goals IMO. Few Lucky saves, a few good saves and not enough killer instinct. Pucks are going to the net instead of bar down.

We also had a LOT of chances in OT, which will help those stats along

The actual chances were better in Winnipeg, that matches the eye test for me too. We got so many wide open East-West looks against Winnipeg, it was just absurd how poorly their D played. Ottawa gave us tons of chances but they weren't the wide open/goalie moving type looks, they were better contested.

I don't like blaming refs but we were getting absolutely mugged around their net, and if we didn't get Peel'ed, we probably would have gotten 4-5 more PP off those chances.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The possession is meaningless without penetration to areas where multiple opportunities occur, the possession is peripheral, it's not winning hockey and goalies will continue to look Vezina worthy against TO. TO has 21 goals in the last 9 games, barely more than 2 goals a game for and every goalie they face look far better than TO's goalies, the losses aren't an Andersen problem and trading for Granlund who is another pass first non aggressive player would be simply piling on the same old, same old.

I’m not so sure what you are getting at here but there is no such thing as meaningless penetration

 

[Gary Nylund]

Shitting on happiness and positively makes some people feel smart. It creates a narrative where everyone else is a fool, and you got it figured out.

These guys are going to cry that we will never win a cup, and then when we do, they'll cry that we won't win another one. Not sure why they follow the damn team in the first place.

Haha yeah or that we were just lucky or we didn't win it "the right way" or WE.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Obviously happy with the win but had Matthews' scored on that play, it would have been goal of the year for me. My jaw nearly hit the ground.

Would have been really shitty had Ottawa won after that so thankfully Marner made a play to get the puck to Holl.

 

[Mr Hockey]

And yet the leafs rank at the top on shots in the danger areas.

they are one of the most skilled teams in the league, could you imagine if teams would use the same game plan against the leafs as they would against the Sens

 

[kb]

 

[BertCorbeau]

Ottawa just seems to have this mental edge on Toronto for some reason. They're never an easy win despite how bad they are, so I'm glad the Leafs kept up the effort and pulled through in the end.

Thankfully only a couple of games left agains them this season.

Also still laughing at Simmonds ripping into the ref after that non-call in the third. Such a blatant trip. And the gutless ref covering his mic during the commercial break.

Luckily Spezza scored shortly after.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Only problem is your take is completely backwards - the biggest issue for the Leafs has been waiting for the perfect chance instead of shooting it on their just plain "good" chances.

This is why they rank so highly in shots in the slot, while being so mediocre in shots taken in general.

the Leafs still rank pretty highly in medium danger chances. They really only pass up low danger chances. What's weird for me is they score a lot on their medium and low danger opportunities, but can't seem to finish on high danger chances

 

[Dreakmur]

Only problem is your take is completely backwards - the biggest issue for the Leafs has been waiting for the perfect chance instead of shooting it on their just plain "good" chances.

This is why they rank so highly in shots in the slot, while being so mediocre in shots taken in general.

So passing the puck around and waiting for space to open up in the middle is “backwards” from waiting for the perfect chance?

 

[Garthinater]

I think there's some truth here. As time goes by, I'm less and less impressed by these expected goal stats. They were IMO misleading for our loss to CLB in the playoffs and they've been misleading for many games this season when people have posted the numbers for one game to show how well we've been playing.

There is very little value in expected goal stats. The game is played on the ice, not on spread sheets.

They are just people for people who don't fully understand hockey.

 

[Mr Hockey]

So passing the puck around and waiting for space to open up in the middle is “backwards” from waiting for the perfect chance?

moving it around and trying to catch a Sens player or two out of position, Zeke thinks that is a bad thing

 

[Coachcorner]

Our team such had asses today. We gon win in the playoffs too Campbell being sharper next game again. He can't win em all, just like freedy can't sire.
But yeah, our team even more tougher when we get GLENDELING or Palmieri's butt. We doing it harder and harder when the playoffs are getting nearer. This is so exciting. I'M SO EXCITED!!!

 

[Dreakmur]

If you look at the Leafs shot locations they are generally shooting from high danger areas. It's not as if they're just peppering goalies from the blue line.

I think it's fair to critique the main guys during this period for not being able to score like they are capable of (Matthews injury aside) - but even here they've had lots of great opportunities from close to the net, they just haven't all gone in

Just tracking where a shot is taken doesn’t tell the whole story. If you’re not accounting for traffic, tips, rebounds, shot placement, shot selection, release quickness, goalie movement, etc, you’re not really measuring how hard the shot was to save.

That back door glove save on Matthews was a perfect example. Sure, that’s a great scoring change, but a lot of things happened to make it a savable puck. He bobbles the pass, which gave the goalie time to get across. He flubbed the shot a little bit instead of ripping it. He also put it in the middle of the net. According to high danger scoring chances, that shot was the same as if he hammered a one-timer under the bar.

 

[BlackTipReefer]

There is very little value in expected goal stats. The game is played on the ice, not on spread sheets.

They are just people for people who don't fully understand hockey.

"The cancer has 99% fatality rate if chemo isn't administered? Buddy, my health is played out in my body, not in your spreadsheet. Put that chemo shit away, I have essential oils. Only true mitochondria understand cell health".

 

[zeke]

There is very little value in expected goal stats. The game is played on the ice, not on spread sheets.

They are just people for people who don't fully understand hockey.

Pro-Tip: whenever you guys say things like "they didn't really look dangerous", you're actually measuring expected goals in your head.

 

[Joey Hoser]

There is very little value in expected goal stats. The game is played on the ice, not on spread sheets.

They are just people for people who don't fully understand hockey.

Yes, because the people who "fully understand hockey" are always correct and always agree with each other.