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HOH Top Goaltenders of All Time Preliminary Discussion Thread

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TheDevilMadeMe said:
I don't know whether this is true or false, but is it relative for the project? Any non-NHL goalie we are even going to consider is going to be on his country's "first team."
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Kralik? He spent most of his career on the "second team" but his few years on the "first team" demonstrate that he was first team quality.
 
TheDevilMadeMe said:
I made the Dryden/Holecek comparison because both had relatively short primes in the 1970s, both were absolutely dominant against their primary competition, both had struggles against a very specific opponent possibly due to style of play (Holecek against Canada, Dryden against the USSR). No, I didn't rank Holecek as high as Dryden, but I think it's a useful point of reference.

Thanks for the long post VMBM. This project really needs more European posters who are familiar with history. Interesting that you say the Czechs won gold in 1977 despite their goaltending, but if Holecek is going to be dinged for playing relatively poorly then, shouldn't Tretiak, as well? The 5-1 gap in "best goaltender awards" in favor of Holecek when they competed head to head is huge. (Tretiak won the award twice after Holecek was done).
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IMO the Dryden vs. the Soviets and Holecek vs. Canada analogy is pretty fair. But how much they should be 'punished' for these supposed shortcomings, I don't know. I can honestly say that Ken Dryden has never impressed me much, but I should also add that it's because I've mostly seen him at his worst (vs. USSR) rather than at his best (in the NHL).

The first time Tretiak was the starting goalie was in the 1972 WC (a 'bad' start, heh), so I'd say it's 'only' 4-1 (1973, 1975, 1976 and 1978) for Holecek. Of course, there could be a year or two where the IIHF directorate got it wrong (in the opinion of some), but then again, I think Holecek was also named to the All-Star team 4 times and Tretiak only once (between 1972 and 1978), so there is probably not much to argue that Holecek was indeed better in the World Championships.

In the 1977 World Championships, I think Czechoslovakia got a bit lucky; their win was certainly not as clear as it had been in 1972 and 1976, and I'm just saying that I would not emphasize their goaltending - certainly not Holecek - in their victory. Sweden's Göran Högosta was named the best goalie and to the All-Star team, and I guess he was the most consistent performer of them all (Högosta, Tretiak, Dzurilla, T. Esposito...). But in the final round, Czechoslovakia managed to win the right games (vs. USSR http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPmNhL6uDAI&feature=related and vs. Sweden), whereas the Soviets didn't. The last game of the tournament was between USSR and Sweden and the Soviets needed only a tie to win the championship - but SWE won 3-1.

Tretiak had numerous bad games over the years. People seem to forget that he was the starter when USSR lost the world championship (1972, 1976, 1977) and olympic gold (1980). Well, people do remember 1980, but even that often has the "if only Tikhonov hadn't pulled Tretiak" spin to it, and Tretiak is the 'good guy' of the story - even though he really wasn't playing well in Lake Placid. He was also weak in the 1979 Challenge Cup. He was in net when Czechoslovakia beat USSR 7-2 (1974 WC) and 8-3 (1977 Izvestia). For some reason, in the case of Tretiak, people tend to remember the good rather than the bad. Probably because he was often good in the 'right games' (game 1 of the 1972 Summit Series, 1975 vs. the Habs, 1981 Canada Cup etc.). Although it can be said that Tretiak was better against Canadian style of play than Holecek, he also had so many more chances to 'prove himself'. What if Czechoslovakia had played an 8 game series versus Canada in 1972? Would've that experience made Holecek better and more confident in the 1976 CC too? Who knows.
 
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Just submitted my list...I wonder how much different it would look if I took a second whack at it starting now...

I'll admit, it's going to have a lot of kinks, as a) I'm new rather new to all of this b) it was somewhat rushed due to limited computer access for the last couple weeks c) it was hard!
 
Finalizing the last details, just looking for a few things...

When I realized that there was definitely an argument for Kelly Hrudey in the Top-60 :(. Dunno if I'm "overthinking"....
 
MXD said:
Finalizing the last details, just looking for a few things...

When I realized that there was definitely an argument for Kelly Hrudey in the Top-60 :(. Dunno if I'm "overthinking"....
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He's in my top sixty (barely).
 
VMBM said:
I can honestly say that Ken Dryden has never impressed me much, but I should also add that it's because I've mostly seen him at his worst (vs. USSR) rather than at his best (in the NHL)... Tretiak had numerous bad games over the years. People seem to forget that he was the starter when USSR lost the world championship (1972, 1976, 1977) and olympic gold (1980)....
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Interesting point about Tretiak, "remember only the good", as surely thats true in my case. He was absolutely outstanding in the Summit Series which being my first opportunity to really see what he could do was extremely impressive. Almost impossible for me to find fault with his game. Didnt really matter to me thereafter if he maybe had a bad game here or there, after watching him in 72 my opinion was fully formed, set. Brilliant.... Dryden of course burst onto the scene as a Rookie in 71, and really, if you can get ahold of them, DVD's or tapes, Id urge you to watch his performances. Mind blowing. Internationally I agree he was less than "stellar", hard to apprise his talent & value from afar as the starter with Montreal during their salad days of the mid to late 70's but still, his record alone speaks for itself.
 
I see Hrudey as a "Cujo lite", but his best years were obfuscated by the 1980s era. I've got him at 128 goals better than average over his NHL career, and 433 goals better than replacement level.

I don't see much of a case for top 40, but I like him and though that he deserved top 60 consideration.
 
Taco MacArthur said:
I see Hrudey as a "Cujo lite", but his best years were obfuscated by the 1980s era. I've got him at 128 goals better than average over his NHL career, and 433 goals better than replacement level.

I don't see much of a case for top 40, but I like him and though that he deserved top 60 consideration.
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Doc/Taco, I know that you're a big numbers guy and a big goalies guy. Is there any materials that you'd recommend or that you've done yourself regarding the "good goalie, bad team" quandary? I tend to rank goalies I believe to be good that are in bad situations, higher than those that performed at a similar level as their replacements on good and/or sheltered teams (Billy Smith vs. Resch, Giguere vs. backups in RS play). While a goalie like Roy Worters, or in my lifetime, Sean Burke (random example) had probably poorer numbers because of the teams he played for but he did regularly outplay his backups.

I kind of went into this goalie study relatively blind. I feel like a lot of people have a dozen Excel spreadsheets that they're cycling through to make their lists and I'm here rubbin' two sticks together hoping for a spark...:laugh:

Also, I see the save percentages from 1968-1982 posted by seventies from before, and I've seen scant postings of save percentages from O6 era from the Hockey Compendium (I believe)... ...are all known, but unofficial, save percentages together in one thread/page anywhere? Additionally, has anyone combed through it to assign ranks to relevant players (i.e. Plante: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th...) I wouldn't mind going through some of that info, unless it's been done.
 
Taco MacArthur said:
I see Hrudey as a "Cujo lite", but his best years were obfuscated by the 1980s era. I've got him at 128 goals better than average over his NHL career, and 433 goals better than replacement level.

I don't see much of a case for top 40, but I like him and though that he deserved top 60 consideration.
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I'd say probably more of a "Chico Resch lite", especially considering the Long Island connection, but I agree that Hrudey's numbers were pretty good. He's 24th all-time among goalies in GVT, for what that's worth. Hrudey didn't make my list but I did give him consideration, and I can see how someone who prefers career over peak and maybe doesn't discount his New York numbers quite as much for team defence as I did might put Hrudey in their top 60.
 
Kelly Hrudey

Mike Farkas said:
Doc/Taco, I know that you're a big numbers guy and a big goalies guy. Is there any materials that you'd recommend or that you've done yourself regarding the "good goalie, bad team" quandary? I tend to rank goalies I believe to be good that are in bad situations, higher than those that performed at a similar level as their replacements on good and/or sheltered teams (Billy Smith vs. Resch, Giguere vs. backups in RS play). While a goalie like Roy Worters, or in my lifetime, Sean Burke (random example) had probably poorer numbers because of the teams he played for but he did regularly outplay his backups.

I kind of went into this goalie study relatively blind. I feel like a lot of people have a dozen Excel spreadsheets that they're cycling through to make their lists and I'm here rubbin' two sticks together hoping for a spark...:laugh:

Also, I see the save percentages from 1968-1982 posted by seventies from before, and I've seen scant postings of save percentages from O6 era from the Hockey Compendium (I believe)... ...are all known, but unofficial, save percentages together in one thread/page anywhere? Additionally, has anyone combed through it to assign ranks to relevant players (i.e. Plante: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th...) I wouldn't mind going through some of that info, unless it's been done.
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Kelly Hrudey interned on the 1983-84 SC Finalist Islanders team and peaked on the 1992-93 SC Finalist Kings hardly a good goalie on a weak team profile. His career was basically a roller coaster ride be it RS or PO.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hrudeke01.html

Marginally the #1 in a tandem but not close to a stand alone #1.

Stand alone #1 compare to Patrick Roy 1992-93 especially the playoffs:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/roypa01.html
 
Mike Farkas said:
Doc/Taco, I know that you're a big numbers guy and a big goalies guy. Is there any materials that you'd recommend or that you've done yourself regarding the "good goalie, bad team" quandary? I tend to rank goalies I believe to be good that are in bad situations, higher than those that performed at a similar level as their replacements on good and/or sheltered teams (Billy Smith vs. Resch, Giguere vs. backups in RS play). While a goalie like Roy Worters, or in my lifetime, Sean Burke (random example) had probably poorer numbers because of the teams he played for but he did regularly outplay his backups.
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I've done some work in those areas as part of a predictive model, but haven't had enough time to properly tease out any genuine effects.

If anyone's done something in the public domain, I'd expect it to be Iain, Contrarian, or Alan Ryder.
 
Thanks for the responses, I'll keep poking around. For the record, C1958, I wasn't referring to Hrudey with my post. Not sure if it came across that way. As an aside, my personal opinion is that he was a not very good goalie on good teams. But I only gave him a passing glance for this project, because I thought that's all he deserved. That'll all come out in the wash later on though.
 
Mike Farkas said:
Doc/Taco, I know that you're a big numbers guy and a big goalies guy. Is there any materials that you'd recommend or that you've done yourself regarding the "good goalie, bad team" quandary? I tend to rank goalies I believe to be good that are in bad situations, higher than those that performed at a similar level as their replacements on good and/or sheltered teams (Billy Smith vs. Resch, Giguere vs. backups in RS play). While a goalie like Roy Worters, or in my lifetime, Sean Burke (random example) had probably poorer numbers because of the teams he played for but he did regularly outplay his backups.
Click to expand...

This was addressed to Taco but I figured I'd weigh in case my thoughts might help any. I've done a fair bit of work with comparing goalies to backups, you can search my blog if you want to find some of them, but those studies run into two main difficulties: Small sample sizes for backup goalies playing with workhorse starters and difficulty in evaluating how good the backups are, particularly if they had short careers or didn't play a lot of games for other teams. It's possible to adjust for the latter issue (e.g. look at what the backup goalies did on other teams or adjust backup goalie stats based on their career averages), but the sample size thing is tough to account for and really restricts the validity of backup comparisons for goalies who played nearly all their team's games.

It does work fine for cases like Smith/Resch or Fuhr/Moog, two goalies who posted pretty similar numbers while platooning on the same team, although the analytical problem there then becomes trying to figure out whether the more highly regarded goalie was perhaps overrated or whether the less heralded one might have been better than commonly thought, or if there may be some other factors clouding the issue.

I think it is mostly a good assumption to rank a goalie on a weaker team higher than a goalie with stronger teammates if they are rated similarly or have similar numbers, because for most of NHL history the stronger teams tended to allow fewer and easier shots against and typically the voter bias come awards time was in favour of goalies on strong teams (GAA was clearly the main driver of First Team All-Star voting for much of league history, for example). I also tend to think that playoff team success typically has too much of an impact on a goalie's reputation in general. That said, you can't completely discount goalies posting great numbers on great defensive teams either, as I mentioned in the Thomas discussion upthread.

Mike Farkas said:
Also, I see the save percentages from 1968-1982 posted by seventies from before, and I've seen scant postings of save percentages from O6 era from the Hockey Compendium (I believe)... ...are all known, but unofficial, save percentages together in one thread/page anywhere? Additionally, has anyone combed through it to assign ranks to relevant players (i.e. Plante: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th...) I wouldn't mind going through some of that info, unless it's been done.
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I'm not aware of any public site that has all the unofficial stats in one place, but complete goalie stats from 1952-53 to 1982-83 were compiled by Roger Brewer using the data from the Hockey Summary Project and the Hockey Databank. He posted the file at the Hockey Analysis Group in Yahoo Groups, you could either join that group or email me and I can send you a copy of the file if you want.
 
I finally had Hrudey in my list. Bottom-end. Don't think there's a case for him in the Top-40, but I had him ahead of Ron Hextall, FWIW.

Now, if somebody would have told me I'd had Kelly Hrudey in my Top-60 at the beginning of the project, it would have been a endless laughter.
 
ContrarianGoaltender said:
This was addressed to Taco but I figured I'd weigh in case my thoughts might help any. I've done a fair bit of work with comparing goalies to backups, you can search my blog if you want to find some of them, but those studies run into two main difficulties: Small sample sizes for backup goalies playing with workhorse starters and difficulty in evaluating how good the backups are, particularly if they had short careers or didn't play a lot of games for other teams. It's possible to adjust for the latter issue (e.g. look at what the backup goalies did on other teams or adjust backup goalie stats based on their career averages), but the sample size thing is tough to account for and really restricts the validity of backup comparisons for goalies who played nearly all their team's games.

It does work fine for cases like Smith/Resch or Fuhr/Moog, two goalies who posted pretty similar numbers while platooning on the same team, although the analytical problem there then becomes trying to figure out whether the more highly regarded goalie was perhaps overrated or whether the less heralded one might have been better than commonly thought, or if there may be some other factors clouding the issue.

I think it is mostly a good assumption to rank a goalie on a weaker team higher than a goalie with stronger teammates if they are rated similarly or have similar numbers, because for most of NHL history the stronger teams tended to allow fewer and easier shots against and typically the voter bias come awards time was in favour of goalies on strong teams (GAA was clearly the main driver of First Team All-Star voting for much of league history, for example). I also tend to think that playoff team success typically has too much of an impact on a goalie's reputation in general. That said, you can't completely discount goalies posting great numbers on great defensive teams either, as I mentioned in the Thomas discussion upthread.



I'm not aware of any public site that has all the unofficial stats in one place, but complete goalie stats from 1952-53 to 1982-83 were compiled by Roger Brewer using the data from the Hockey Summary Project and the Hockey Databank. He posted the file at the Hockey Analysis Group in Yahoo Groups, you could either join that group or email me and I can send you a copy of the file if you want.
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I have that file with stats updated through 2011 in it. I will try to add 2012 tonight and upload somewhere.
 
Kelly Hrudey

Mike Farkas said:
Thanks for the responses, I'll keep poking around. For the record, C1958, I wasn't referring to Hrudey with my post. Not sure if it came across that way. As an aside, my personal opinion is that he was a not very good goalie on good teams. But I only gave him a passing glance for this project, because I thought that's all he deserved. That'll all come out in the wash later on though.
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The comment was made because Kelly Hrudey possessed elements of the characteristics you referred to - tandem, good team, bad team, SC Finalist, that make him very interesting but hard to qualify.
 
Expect Round 2 to start next week

If you submitted a list and haven't heard back from us yet, expect an answer this weekend. We had a flood of lists this past week and screeners are getting caught up
 
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