Post-Game Talk: Hockeytown no more 4-2 Jets

[Duke749]

My take on Scheifele is that he is pacing himself. I was at the game last night and I watched him closely. He is in the right position, but lets someone else take on an assignment or retrieve a loose puck etc. I think what you are seeing is an experienced vet, that knows the load he will need to carry in the playoffs now that he has experienced a long run, and he is conserving.

I’ve thought about this at times as well with regards to him and Wheeler. Could certainly be true since making the playoffs seem like a formality at this point.

 

[KingBogo]

I know some people are down on him but Comrie is top 4 in the AHL in save percentage on a depleted Moose team. It might be in our best interest to sell high on Brossoit if you they feel Comrie can be an effective backup next year. His numbers this year may suggest that he can.

I'm pretty neutral on Comrie, but until we see a long stretch of last year's Helly from Helly I want to hold onto Brossoit for dear life.

 

[Jets 31]

Pretty sure Little was drafted as a center. Not sure where this misinformation comes from.



I feel like we have a lot of defensively weak forwards right now. Top line being one of them. Not sure what your opinion on that is Whileee but I’d be interested in your thoughts on Scheif’s game lately outside of the points. I haven’t been a fan.

Really , i was sure he was a winger that became a center , i could be wrong though . Still a nice accomplishment none the less .

 

[GNP]

yes, that great talent Myers has 13 points all season.

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He may have only 13 points, but I believe last year, he had around 40 points. Myers is one of our "few" defenseman that can skate the puck into the offensive zone, with possession and set up plays. The only other one is Buff, and the odd time Morrissey -- all the rest just shoot it in, and hope for possession. Also Myers hasn't had the chance at playing the power play like last year, and if he did, he'd have another 10 points.

The Jet's strength in my opinion is their strong defense, and we generally don't get a lot of goals scored against us, and that's why we're in first place.

Your posts -- coming from someone who suggests trading a guy like Ehlers, does really make me scratch my head and wonder how you think ? Ehlers is one of the fastest and most elite and up and coming young forwards in the NHL. He is also signed long term for a lot less than he could command on the open market -- like about $ 7.5 mil per yr. He's signed for around $ 6 mil,-- "great deal."

Did it ever occur to you , that historically "winning dynasty" Cup teams ( (Montreal, Islanders, Oilers) never trade their young stars-- rather they keep them, have them grow chemistry and grow together to become champions. The only time when they trade them, is when their past their prime playing years. ( long after)

Your free to hate Myers -- as some others do on here, but I think he's great, and if Trouba goes, the Jet's will sign him in the $ 5.5 to 6 mil range. The Jet's obviously think he's good as well, or they wouldn't give him so much ice time.

 

[Gotaf7]

Moving laine up to the first line will never happen...someone doesn't want him up there for some reason, ehlers and conners have been moved up there with no hesitation yet laine isn't in the consideration, rather oddly....either its Maurice or the big man with the "C", wheeler has been known to be a bit of a cry baby and wonder if he doesn't care for the attention being diverted from him onto someone else who has more talent them himself.... there is no doubt or rather very obvious someone who doesn't want him on the first line.

Laine would get f***ing destroyed playing against the competition Sheifs plays against, the one trick pony should go no where near the 1st line.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I think you are making things far too complicated. Look at his games this year;
Laurent Brossoit 2018-19 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com
Of his 11 games, roughly 8 have been 1 goal (or EN) wins. In those games his average save % has been outstanding--I didn't bother to measure it but it looks like >950.
A lesser goalie--and that includes youknowwho this year--could easily have forfeited multiple wins just by playing at league average sv %, making 1 less great stop or letting in 1 softie.
Brossoit may or may not keep this up, but it is not unfair to say that his results thus far, as compared to his current and past peers--are the main reason the Jets are in first place in their division.

Not making it complicated at all. Just making it accurate. Once we start getting into trying to manipulate where those extra saves go, we walk right into issues of bias. You're saying those "extra" saves all came during big wins. Maybe they came in garbage time where we were up by 2+ or down by 2+? Or maybe multiple ones came in the same tied game, so all but the first one fell into the "new garbage time". The exact same justifications for your choice to place them exist for choosing to place them that way, right?

At the end of the day, your statement is correct. If Brossoit was merely playing like an average backup, we wouldn't be in first in the division and 3rd in the West; we'd be 2nd in the division and 6th in the west.

We all agree that his above-average performance has translated into extra wins above and beyond what we'd get if we had a typical backup performance so far. Only disagreement is in how big the impact is. And right now, I've at least provided some evidence, and I think that's more valuable than "Well if I had the power to place them whereever I want, I could get better than average".

 

[Jets 31]

Laine would get ****ing destroyed playing against the competition Sheifs plays against, the one trick pony should go no where near the 1st line.

Just for even 1 game ? I agree Laine needs work on his all around game but Wheeler and Scheif both have not been very sound defensively at times this season . I would just like to see if Scheif could get Laine going , we need Laine scoring if we are going to get anywhere in the playoffs .

 

[LowLefty]

My take on Scheifele is that he is pacing himself. I was at the game last night and I watched him closely. He is in the right position, but lets someone else take on an assignment or retrieve a loose puck etc. I think what you are seeing is an experienced vet, that knows the load he will need to carry in the playoffs now that he has experienced a long run, and he is conserving.

I wouldn't have any problem making that assumption - he's a very smart player.

 

[scelaton]

Look at that, better PTS% than Jack Adams himself.

Look at his PTS% in the 5 seasons he has been with the Jets and he starts looking more like Scotty Bowman than Jack Adams.
PTS % is largely (but not entirely) about the team you are coaching.

 

[Board Bard]

Just for even 1 game ? I agree Laine needs work on his all around game but Wheeler and Scheif both have not been very sound defensively at times this season . I would just like to see if Scheif could get Laine going , we need Laine scoring if we are going to get anywhere in the playoffs .

What could it hurt? It's not like Scheifele and Wheeler are plusses defensively without Ehlers. Ehlers also drives more offense than Connor, so Scheifele and Wheeler are already used to a step down there. Another step down with Laine, if it doesn't pan out, isn't going to be that big a drop, and it's not like it's etched in stone. If it does pan out, Laine will hit 50 goals this year and you don't have to worry about him dragging down the second line.

 

[kanadalainen]

He's also the 9th all-time for games won.

In 4 games Maurice will be 6th all time in NHL games coached.

View attachment 174685

Those are interesting numbers. Just to satisfy the need to satiate my recency bias I wonder what are Mo's stats (eg, PTS%) during the past 3-4 years? I will try to research that.

EDIT: @scelaton raised the same point couple of posts up.

 

[Jets 31]

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He may have only 13 points, but I believe last year, he had around 40 points. Myers is one of our "few" defenseman that can skate the puck into the offensive zone, with possession and set up plays. The only other one is Buff, and the odd time Morrissey -- all the rest just shoot it in, and hope for possession. Also Myers hasn't had the chance at playing the power play like last year, and if he did, he'd have another 10 points.

The Jet's strength in my opinion is their strong defense, and we generally don't get a lot of goals scored against us, and that's why we're in first place.

Your posts -- coming from someone who suggests trading a guy like Ehlers, does really make me scratch my head and wonder how you think ? Ehlers is one of the fastest and most elite and up and coming young forwards in the NHL. He is also signed long term for a lot less than he could command on the open market -- like about $ 7.5 mil per yr. He's signed for around $ 6 mil,-- "great deal."

Did it ever occur to you , that historically "winning dynasty" Cup teams ( (Montreal, Islanders, Oilers) never trade their young stars-- rather they keep them, have them grow chemistry and grow together to become champions. The only time when they trade them, is when their past their prime playing years. ( long after)

Your free to hate Myers -- as some others do on here, but I think he's great, and if Trouba goes, the Jet's will sign him in the $ 5.5 to 6 mil range. The Jet's obviously think he's good as well, or they wouldn't give him so much ice time.

Myers really struggled pretty much until Buff got hurt but picked up his game alot since then . Myers can be good but he can also be very bad , mostly from brain farts that he has gotten more control of . I wouldn't let go of Myers until we know for sure what Trouba and his agent are going to do .

 

[GNP]

I highly doubt that.....he is an essential piece of the team along with the PP and one of the reasons we are in 1st place in the central. When you have a back up clipping along at .940 after 11 games and he is the only other option in the organization you don’t trade that away. If Helle were ever to go down with injury Brossoit would be an even more critical asset.

9-1-1 with a great save % from a cheap back up has to be worth 3 or 4 extra wins this season so far.

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I agree with this, and I think the Jet's should extend Brossoit now, while he is cheap, and give him like about $ 2 mil over 3 years. I really like this guy, and we just don't know how good he's going to be -- over the long term ?? To spend ( 6+2)-total-$8mil on Goaltenders is not unreasonable, considering Montreal pays Price $ 10 mil per year.

It's possible he could turn out to be the next Martin Brodeur ?-- and if that happens and we have 2 "great" Goalies -- then one could be traded for a dynamic 2nd line center, and that's the "key piece" missing in the Jet's lineup to be a championship team.. Not that Little is bad at all -- I think he's a good solid centerman, but not that dynamic center on the 2nd line that we need. Little on the 3rd line center would be powerful.

I think the Jet's should take a "small chance" and lock up Brossoit, so we don't lose him. If that happens, we'd have to expose one of them in the expansion draft, however we'd trade one of them off, before that happens. This is what I'd do if I were Chevy.

 

[Gotaf7]

Just for even 1 game ? I agree Laine needs work on his all around game but Wheeler and Scheif both have not been very sound defensively at times this season . I would just like to see if Scheif could get Laine going , we need Laine scoring if we are going to get anywhere in the playoffs .

He did nothing last year in the playoffs he will do nothing this year, teams have figured him out, pressure him and he will make mistakes.

 

[scelaton]

Not making it complicated at all. Just making it accurate. Once we start getting into trying to manipulate where those extra saves go, we walk right into issues of bias. You're saying those "extra" saves all came during big wins. Maybe they came in garbage time where we were up by 2+ or down by 2+? Or maybe multiple ones came in the same tied game, so all but the first one fell into the "new garbage time". The exact same justifications for your choice to place them exist for choosing to place them that way, right?

At the end of the day, your statement is correct. If Brossoit was merely playing like an average backup, we wouldn't be in first in the division and 3rd in the West; we'd be 2nd in the division and 6th in the west...........

We all carry unconscious bias, but I consciously made an attempt to look back at his wins to see if his 'extra' saves were superfluous. They were not; there was simply not a lot of garbage time in those 8 games. Most of his wins were by 1 goal (or EN)--games in which every save counted, in retrospect. I don't expect Bro to maintain this pace, but anything can happen in a short sample size.

Do you think you come into the goaltending discussion with any bias?

 

[Jets 31]

He did nothing last year in the playoffs he will do nothing this year, teams have figured him out, pressure him and he will make mistakes.

I think he is trying so hard not to make mistakes it is affecting his game right now . He has to get alot better but i'm willing to cut him some slack because he is still learning the NHL game . That and the guy has one of the best shots in all of hockey and has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he can score goals in this league .

 

[Gotaf7]

I think he is trying so hard not to make mistakes it is affecting his game right now . He has to get alot better but i'm willing to cut him some slack because he is still learning the NHL game . That and the guy has one of the best shots in all of hockey and has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he can score goals in this league .

Agreed he can score......when he has the time. Teams are taking away his time and space especially on the PP and essentially neuter him. Maybe he figures it out but I have my doubts, IMO he plays and thinks the game way to slow.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Look at his PTS% in the 5 seasons he has been with the Jets and he starts looking more like Scotty Bowman than Jack Adams.
PTS % is largely (but not entirely) about the team you are coaching.

It is *incredibly* difficult to factor out the value that a coach has. You'd pretty much need to figure out the whole team's expected chance of winning based on the massive mountain of variables (not least of which is the talent on both teams) and see how a coach overperforms / underperforms over that whole time. I've seen some rudimentary efforts out there but nothing really close to convincing.

 

[GNP]

Most of his wins were by 1 goal (or EN)--games in which every save counted, in retrospect.I don't expect Bro to maintain this pace, but anything can happen in a short sample size.

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Very good post here scelaton -- and we really do have to see how Brossoit fares over a longer sample size ?? That's a big question, but if he can play to anywhere close to what he is right now -- we have a "bigtime winner." We should lock this guy up.

 

[AlphaLackey]

We all carry unconscious bias, but I consciously made an attempt to look back at his wins to see if his 'extra' saves were superfluous. They were not; there was simply not a lot of garbage time in those 8 games. Most of his wins were by 1 goal (or EN)--games in which every save counted, in retrospect. I don't expect Bro to maintain this pace, but anything can happen in a short sample size.

And that right there is the first part -- selecting those 8 games and saying that the extra saves could only have come here, and that there would never be any redundant extra saves.

Do you think you come into the goaltending discussion with any bias?

My opinions about who I *like* are one thing, but if I'm going to make a claim, it's because I've A. considered the evidence and can answer the question "on what grounds..?" and B. If I make any assumptions that I will consider the possibility that the opposite POV to my argument could also make those assumptions.

And certainly, if I were ever to make a claim that was mathematically impossible (see which, a prior post insisting how 5 extra saves could have resulted in 6 extra wins), I would take that as a HUGE sign I was making a mistake.

 

[kanadalainen]

Re: Paul Maurice PTS% since 2014

I found the numbers I was looking for on hockeydb.com:

..and of course the Jets have only played 44 games this year, but plugging W/L (where losses include OTL) them into Excel was interesting.

Maurice's PCT% is .593 (rounding up) since 2014, with an average of 39.6 wins and 26.8 losses per annum. This years totals are included because while not a per annum figure, the data is normalized when calculating %.

 

[KingBogo]

It is *incredibly* difficult to factor out the value that a coach has. You'd pretty much need to figure out the whole team's expected chance of winning based on the massive mountain of variables (not least of which is the talent on both teams) and see how a coach overperforms / underperforms over that whole time. I've seen some rudimentary efforts out there but nothing really close to convincing.

This doesn't even take into account the un-measurable impacts around human psychology. How much value is there to have a players coach that is well liked and respected by the players in the room? Someone who has undisputed command of the room over 23 alpha males. Or is able to harness a unique player like Buff? Or is able to deflect heat from someone struggling. Or has the personality to have every player feel like they have a personal connection? IMO these things matter and Maurice is IMO is one of the best coaches on this side of the ledger.

 

[ecolad]

My take on Scheifele is that he is pacing himself. I was at the game last night and I watched him closely. He is in the right position, but lets someone else take on an assignment or retrieve a loose puck etc. I think what you are seeing is an experienced vet, that knows the load he will need to carry in the playoffs now that he has experienced a long run, and he is conserving.

I truly hope you are proven right on this KB . But when you are one of the acknowledged leaders on the team, this notion of "conserving oneself" has potential to play out very poorly. Scheif is not setting a particularly good example for the youngun`s.

 

[Board Bard]

This doesn't even take into account the un-measurable impacts around human psychology. How much value is there to have a players coach that is well liked and respected by the players in the room? Someone who has undisputed command of the room over 23 alpha males. Or is able to harness a unique player like Buff? Or is able to deflect heat from someone struggling. Or has the personality to have every player feel like they have a personal connection? IMO these things matter and Maurice is IMO is one of the best coaches on this side of the ledger.

The Jets are coached by Vince Lombardi?

 

[10Ducky10]

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He may have only 13 points, but I believe last year, he had around 40 points. Myers is one of our "few" defenseman that can skate the puck into the offensive zone, with possession and set up plays. The only other one is Buff, and the odd time Morrissey -- all the rest just shoot it in, and hope for possession. Also Myers hasn't had the chance at playing the power play like last year, and if he did, he'd have another 10 points.

The Jet's strength in my opinion is their strong defense, and we generally don't get a lot of goals scored against us, and that's why we're in first place.

Your posts -- coming from someone who suggests trading a guy like Ehlers, does really make me scratch my head and wonder how you think ? Ehlers is one of the fastest and most elite and up and coming young forwards in the NHL. He is also signed long term for a lot less than he could command on the open market -- like about $ 7.5 mil per yr. He's signed for around $ 6 mil,-- "great deal."

Did it ever occur to you , that historically "winning dynasty" Cup teams ( (Montreal, Islanders, Oilers) never trade their young stars-- rather they keep them, have them grow chemistry and grow together to become champions. The only time when they trade them, is when their past their prime playing years. ( long after)

Your free to hate Myers -- as some others do on here, but I think he's great, and if Trouba goes, the Jet's will sign him in the $ 5.5 to 6 mil range. The Jet's obviously think he's good as well, or they wouldn't give him so much ice time.

Do you seriously think Chevy is going to build a dynasty by signing Myers to big money and Brossoit to 2.5m?
Myers was scoring at the same pace as Trouba last year with less than half the defense.
Coming from someone that thinks Trouba was playing poorly so Chevy would trade him doesn't really surprise me.
The fact remains, Myers has 13 points this year and is taking up 5.5m of the caphit.
I suggested trading Ehlers for Lindholm from the ducks and would still do it in a heartbeat.