Post-Game Talk: HC 5 - Jets 2

[Jet]

While they have done a better job this year of giving 4th line more minutes per game, its still too low, especially lately. Every year this happens. They F playing over 20 min a night start to hit a wall, and they go on a tailspin for awhile. Helly same thing. He has once again played too many games.

If they could help themselves out and score a few goals I'm sure that number will go up.

 

[Jets 31]

There, @Jet and i got the PGT to 4 pages, your welcome.

 

[Jet]

There, @Jet and i got the PGT to 4 pages, your welcome.

Teamwork = dreamwork

 

[cbcwpg]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

One of the lightest PGT's I have seen in a long time, even though the team is having a great year it seems to me a lot of posters have lost interest in posting here.

Or @Buffdog just stopped arguing with people... so theres half your pages right there

Plus we cant debate stan tonight and theres nothing left to say about perfetti

 

[Flyby]

One of the lightest PGT's I have seen in a long time, even though the team is having a great year it seems to me a lot of posters have lost interest in posting here.

Just since Innana and Stumbledor left.

 

[Adam da bomb]

While they have done a better job this year of giving 4th line more minutes per game, its still too low, especially lately. Every year this happens. The F playing over 20 min a night start to hit a wall, and they go on a tailspin for awhile. Helly same thing. He has once again played too many games.

D, same top 4 playing too much. Samberg just an off game, whatever. Morrissey too, his back check on goal that Pionk flubbed was total remote disconnect.

It’s hard when the 4th line can’t score.

 

[Buffdog]

Thank you for your interest in my post. In my experience, when someone calls statistical facts 'bias', it is clear that they are biased.

We have played 48 games. We had an NHL record start. That 'NHL record' sets itself apart by definition, not by bias. Frankly it would be weird not to look at that - NHL record start, vs what happens next. And I am saying in my post that is what I am doing.

You can analyze whatever you want in terms of blocks of games. Go to town. In responding to me you chose 15 games. Was there something unique about 15 games ago? Or is it because if you had 'randomly' chosen to go back 10 games, you would be talking about 4 wins and 6 losses? The fact that you see what I say as 'bias' just displays how biased your post is.

I am going back to enjoying the Jets.

I went back 15 games because that's the sample size YOU chose for the start of the season. I was like "ok, cool, we're looking at 15 game sample sizes"

Teams will have strtches of good play and of poor play. Often they correlate (and are likely influenced by) travel and game frequency

And every once in a while, a good team will have a bad night and a bad team will have a good night.

Since we're talking about sample sizes though... why not go by the biggest one possible, which would be the entire season? That would help account for all confounders that would affect smaller sample sizes

If you choose to go by a smaller, more recent sample size due to recency bias... then I suggest you look at our record leading into he playoffs last year and ask yourself whether it was predictive of the outcome

 

[Flyby]

I mean...... This might have to happen or at the very least we call up Chiby and sit Gus to try and create more offense.

Perfetti wins more than his share of board battles, he’s excellent defensively. But, he is not a line driver. I think with a centre who could drive the line, he’ll be just fine. He needs a centre with some offensive ability to use his talents.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I would like Coghlan playing, i have liked his game.

Agree. Thought he and Heinola also played well together, though can't recall how sheltered they might have been, snappy passing and sharp transition.

Of the 3 "new" Jets D, I've preferred Coughlan and Fleury over Miller, albeit in a smaller sample size with C. Fleury esp as a solid, unflashy D with good mobility who seems to have adapted his game to the Jets' preferred style with good results when playing within his limits.

The lack of scoring from any line below the 1st is a long-running problem and we've watched it play out for years. Chibby (if healthy) might help, but not sure he balances it out properly, and he's going to need some time to settle in and rope to make mistakes.

And for the 7th or so year in a row -- a 2C.

These Jets should be firmly in the POs very shortly. Maybe now is the time to stop worrying about things like home ice and work on building a lineup and tactics etc. that can bully its way past the first round. Finally.

 

[MardyBum]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

Yeah they're a good team with an amazing powerplay and Hart level goalie.

Still good defensively, they just don't generate enough 5v5.

But an amazing powerplay and a hart level goalie sure would have helped in the playoffs last year, regardless of how the rest of the team played, so we'll see .

We all know Chevy is adding, it's just sitting around waiting to see what the adds are.

 

[kanadalainen]

Why can't the Jets draw penalties, last night their were 2 clear infraction one on Nik the other on Fefe with the refs looking right at it and no call. Sure they have one of the best pp's in the league but that shouldn't be held against them. Something stinks when a team at the top of the league in taking penalties doesn't get called for even 1 at home.

Its beginning to feel this way. Not optimal, as the power play is part of the game.

 

[gojetsgo]

Why can't the Jets draw penalties, last night their were 2 clear infraction one on Nik the other on Fefe with the refs looking right at it and no call. Sure they have one of the best pp's in the league but that shouldn't be held against them. Something stinks when a team at the top of the league in taking penalties doesn't get called for even 1 at home.

we will only get powerplays when were down or after we have taken a couple penalties and they are forced to give us one

 

[raideralex99]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

Here's the problem with picking and choosing certain stats ... you are using the 16-13-3 stat which for one month was the toughest part of their 82 game schedule. If you look at the other top teams when they hit their tough schedule its no different than the Jets. Also when you are the top team everybody brings their A game ... when you have a top PP the refs give your opponents less penalties. All these things you have to factor in.
Jets are a top playoff team end of story sure things can change if they run into major injuries but as of right now ... I'm not worried.

 

[gojetsgo]

we have an elite goalie, powerplay and great defensive structure, most of the losses this year have been close games where had we just got any depth scoring we would have came away with the win

 

[White Out 902]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

Honestly, it's really hard for me to disagree with this. You're going to have people who say things like, "The record is what you are," or "Why ignore the first part of the season?" and all that, and I kind of get it. But I think that's where we have to use the track record of this team as a benchmark.

This team has a real problem with dealing with adversity. Are they a wildcard team, or are they a top team in the league? I don't know. They did finish the season in fourth place last year, so I'm really on the fence. I don't know where to go with this. I have hopes that we can make noise in the playoffs.

Sixteen games into the season, I was over the moon. I couldn't believe my team was finally in first place in the league and theoretically the number one contender to win the Stanley Cup. All that has fizzled away, and now we have the same questions we usually have with this group.

In the end, I think your suggestion that the only thing that matters is the playoffs is correct. If this team bounces out in the first round again, it will be, in my opinion, catastrophic for season ticket sales and the morale of this fan base and organization.

 

[AtomicJets]

If you take out the best part of the Jets season, the season looks worse

 

[Buffdog]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

"If we take away a bunch of the team's wins, we'd have a worse record!"

No shit

If, instead of going 16-13-3 in your cherry picked data set, we went 30-2, we'd be 45-3. See how that works?

Why ignore the teams best stretch but not its worst?

So much data massaging going on here

 

[White Out 902]

I feel like there's some serious gaslighting going on here. Are people pretending not to know about things like trends, or, is this just a misunderstanding? What am I missing here.

 

[AtomicJets]

I feel like there's some serious gaslighting going on here. Are people pretending not to know about things like trends, or, is this just a misunderstanding? What am I missing here.

What trend? You're just picking and choosing an arbitrary line. Try a more reasonable sample, say the last 20 games. .625 points percentage in that time. Seems like a pretty good measure of where the Jets are currently at.

 

[gojetsgo]

15-1
3-7
13-6-3

basically we had a bad stretch of games that came with out samberg/ehlers while we played 14 games with travel, it's funny because you can find a great 10+ game stretch and a not so great 10 game stretch for every contending team in the league

like before the last 2 games we were 13-4-3, imagine what our record would have been had we had any sort of secondary scoring during that stretch considering how winnable those losses were as well...

 

[Moloch]

There is basically only one team playing perfect hockey right now and its Washington.
Vegas looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now they've lost like 4 straight.
LA looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now theyve lost 4 of their last 5.
Schedule doesn't get much easier from here on out and even if we play .500 we'll still most likely make the playoffs. I just want everyone to be healthy for when that time comes.

No recalls from the moose bodes well for Lowry but nothing is certain

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I went back 15 games because that's the sample size YOU chose for the start of the season. I was like "ok, cool, we're looking at 15 game sample sizes"

Teams will have strtches of good play and of poor play. Often they correlate (and are likely influenced by) travel and game frequency

And every once in a while, a good team will have a bad night and a bad team will have a good night.

Since we're talking about sample sizes though... why not go by the biggest one possible, which would be the entire season? That would help account for all confounders that would affect smaller sample sizes

If you choose to go by a smaller, more recent sample size due to recency bias... then I suggest you look at our record leading into he playoffs last year and ask yourself whether it was predictive of the outcome

Your post breaks down in the first sentence. The first third of the season is 16 games. The second two thirds of the season is 32 games. We have played 48 games.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Not including our 16 game start to the season , which was 15W - 1L

we are: 16 - 13 - 3

IF the Jets had started the season say 9 - 7 - 0 instead of 15 - 1 - 0

we would be 25 - 20 - 3 and fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot.

IMO the Jets are a wildcard team that happened to have an incredible start to the season, which will be enough to get to the post-season, but as others have said....at the end of the day... it's what the Jets do in the playoffs that matter. Can't wait for the real season to start.

I appreciate the work you did to produce these stats, which match the eye test.
The Jets are not a contender for anything but a wild card playoff spot.
Add to your stats is that the Wild , Stars and Av's all have a legitimate chance at overtaking the Jets; it will be a wild finish.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I feel like there's some serious gaslighting going on here. Are people pretending not to know about things like trends, or, is this just a misunderstanding? What am I missing here.

It is obvious that there is an "Us" vs "Them" on the board.
The Us is those who have not gotten over the past two porous playoff performances vs the them who have faith that somehow this team as currently constructed with a couple trade deadline additions is going to make some noise in the playoffs.
I am definitely an Us and I don't care about the record as much as care about how they win vs how they lose. They are managing to keep pace by wining certain games with pp goals, 1st line dominance and free wheeling play but the blue print is out there and if they do not get power play goals, if a team prevents them from getting to the middle of the ice and to the net or if a team is heavy on the forecheck then the Jets are almost guaranteed to lose.

I think we all know playoff hockey is not suited for free wheeling teams save for the Oilers who happen to have 2 of the top 5 best players in the league.