Post-Game Talk: HC 5 - Jets 2

[White Out 902]

See, now that's arbitrary. I don't think it's terribly arbitrary to take one chunk of the season at the very start, draw a line, and then go straight to today from there. You're dividing up the season into three parts. I don't claim to have the answers, and I think my original post I made on the other page makes it pretty clear that it's impossible to tell who the real Jets are. The only thing that matters is the postseason. I just push back on the idea that discounting the hot start is somehow a bias or silly. I think there's a lot to be said about the trend of a team, and a trend where you disregard a very hot start makes sense to me.

15-1
3-7
13-6-3

basically we had a bad stretch of games that came with out samberg/ehlers while we played 14 games with travel, it's funny because you can find a great 10+ game stretch and a not so great 10 game stretch for every contending team in the league

like before the last 2 games we were 13-4-3, imagine what our record would have been had we had any sort of secondary scoring during that stretch considering how winnable those losses were as well...

 

[Weezeric]

I appreciate the work you did to produce these stats, which match the eye test.
The Jets are not a contender for anything but a wild card playoff spot.
Add to your stats is that the Wild , Stars and Av's all have a legitimate chance at overtaking the Jets; it will be a wild finish.

The Avalanche have two regulation wins in their last ten games and have lost to the Blackhawks and Canadiens during that time. Why don’t you apply the same pessimism to other teams that you do to the Jets?

 

[voyageur]

I appreciate the work you did to produce these stats, which match the eye test.
The Jets are not a contender for anything but a wild card playoff spot.
Add to your stats is that the Wild , Stars and Av's all have a legitimate chance at overtaking the Jets; it will be a wild finish.

It's wild because watching the highlights of the Wild-Colorado and Minnesota just pumped them. Out skated them. Team got contributions from young skaters on defense, Faber and Jiricek. Colorado has lost a few recently, before that Minnesota lost a few.

Dallas has been steadier, but they can lose to anyone to.

These teams like Utah and St. Louis are definitely not out of the playoff race, they are a good two weeks of hockey from being in the 8th seed. I'd say that most Jets fans would consider Utah a better team than Calgary.

It's the home record vs. the away record that probably needs some analysis. Without Adam Lowry matching up against other team's best players how good are the Jets? I'd say Scheifele was outskated by Cooley.

Jets still have the most physically punishing Eastern teams to play on the road, so I won't discount the possibility they could fall further off the perch.

 

[KingBogo]

There is basically only one team playing perfect hockey right now and its Washington.
Vegas looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now they've lost like 4 straight.
LA looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now theyve lost 4 of their last 5.
Schedule doesn't get much easier from here on out and even if we play .500 we'll still most likely make the playoffs. I just want everyone to be healthy for when that time comes.

No recalls from the moose bodes well for Lowry but nothing is certain

And at some point Washington will hit a skid and have a bad stretch. It happens to all teams, usually a few times a season. But for some reason a few around here see every down period as some sort of catastrophe instead of the normal ebbs and flows of a season.

 

[Buffdog]

Your post breaks down in the first sentence. The first third of the season is 16 games. The second two thirds of the season is 32 games. We have played 48 games.

Wow, semantics. 15 games samples vs 16 game samples. You really got me there. Good job

Why don't you break down the season into 16 game chunks then. Each of them will be a third. Then try to explain why you lumped together the last two thirds instead of looking at the last one by itself?

15-1-0 (.938 P%)
7-8-1 (.469 P%)
9-5-2 (.625 P%)

 

[Buffdog]

See, now that's arbitrary. I don't think it's terribly arbitrary to take one chunk of the season at the very start, draw a line, and then go straight to today from there. You're dividing up the season into three parts. I don't claim to have the answers, and I think my original post I made on the other page makes it pretty clear that it's impossible to tell who the real Jets are. The only thing that matters is the postseason. I just push back on the idea that discounting the hot start is somehow a bias or silly. I think there's a lot to be said about the trend of a team, and a trend where you disregard a very hot start makes sense to me.

I think you're in the minority who say that the only thing that matters is the postseason. You're projecting your values onto a huge number of people and I don't for a second think it's true

If the Jets shit the bed in 5 games again in April, the VAST majority of fans will be pissed for a moment or two, shrug their shoulders, then get out their golf clubs or fishing gear and enjoy their summer. They'll be back in September looking forward to another winter of being distracted and entertained by the NHL team they cheer for, win or lose

By the way, catastophizong is a real thing that's talked recognized in psychology. There has been plenty written on why people tend to do it, and what it can lead to

 

[Jet]

If you take out the best part of the Jets season, the season looks worse

Maybe we should take out the worst part instead

 

[gojetsgo]

Maybe we should take out the worst part instead

hey were 28-7-3!

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Reality is I doubt we are a 1st place calibre team even if our record says so, with that being said I do think we are better than a wildcard teams. You don't get to just take away the 15-1 start. Is the record since then perhaps more meaningful? Maybe, but at the end of the day your record is your record and we will play in the playoffs because of it.

The playoffs will always be the true determinate on how successful the season is. If we flame out again in the first round the season is a failure.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Reality is I doubt we are a 1st place calibre team even if our record says so, with that being said I do think we are better than a wildcard teams. You don't get to just take away the 15-1 start. Is the record since then perhaps more meaningful? Maybe, but at the end of the day your record is your record and we will play in the playoffs because of it.

The playoffs will always be the true determinate on how successful the season is. If we flame out again in the first round the season is a failure.

What if we flame out in the second round?

 

[AtomicJets]

Last 20 games trend:

COL 13-6-1 27 points (.675)
DAL 13-6-1 27 points (.675)
WPG 11-6-3 25 points (.625)
MIN 10-10 20 points (.500)

 

[Fatdrunk]

It appears the Jets did not show the necessary emotional involvement or energy until they were already significantly behind in the game. This lack of intensity from the start might have contributed to their inability to effectively counter Utah's offensive plays. The Jets D core had a notably poor performance. This suggests that the Jets' D were not able to contain Utah's offensive strategies, allowing too many scoring opportunities. The Jets did not get any power play opportunities during the game, which could have helped them tie or take the lead. This absence of special teams plays meant they couldn’t capitalize on potential momentum shifts. Despite with Helle in goal, the Jets couldn't provide enough support in terms of scoring or defensive plays. This lack of support left Helle dealing with numerous shots and scoring chances without the offensive backup needed to keep the game competitive. The Jets first line playing long shifts, possibly leading to fatigue and less effective play as the game progressed. This could have impacted their performance, especially in the second half of the game. Arniel describing the game as "embarrassing" and a "horseshit job" from top to bottom underscores a general lack of execution across all aspects of the game. These factors combined to create a situation where Utah was able to capitalize on the Jets' mistakes, leading to a 5-2 victory. The game highlighted issues with Winnipeg's strategy, execution, and perhaps their readiness for the match.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

What if we flame out in the second round?

Not a complete failure but a disappointment IMO. A hard fought second round loss I would say is a realistic expectation.

 

[gojetsgo]

See, now that's arbitrary. I don't think it's terribly arbitrary to take one chunk of the season at the very start, draw a line, and then go straight to today from there. You're dividing up the season into three parts. I don't claim to have the answers, and I think my original post I made on the other page makes it pretty clear that it's impossible to tell who the real Jets are. The only thing that matters is the postseason. I just push back on the idea that discounting the hot start is somehow a bias or silly. I think there's a lot to be said about the trend of a team, and a trend where you disregard a very hot start makes sense to me.

lol "I think there's a lot to be said about the trend of a team" I like how you post this but ignore the trend of the team...

upwards trend 15-1
downwards trend 3-7
upwards trend 13-6-3

 

[Adam da bomb]

Not a complete failure but a disappointment IMO. A hard fought second round loss I would say is a realistic expectation.

In my opinion I'd be thrilled if they make the second round even if they lose in 4 straight as I have low expectations and want them to clear the first bar, first.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It appears the Jets did not show the necessary emotional involvement or energy until they were already significantly behind in the game. This lack of intensity from the start might have contributed to their inability to effectively counter Utah's offensive plays. The Jets D core had a notably poor performance. This suggests that the Jets' D were not able to contain Utah's offensive strategies, allowing too many scoring opportunities. The Jets did not get any power play opportunities during the game, which could have helped them tie or take the lead. This absence of special teams plays meant they couldn’t capitalize on potential momentum shifts. Despite with Helle in goal, the Jets couldn't provide enough support in terms of scoring or defensive plays. This lack of support left Helle dealing with numerous shots and scoring chances without the offensive backup needed to keep the game competitive. The Jets first line playing long shifts, possibly leading to fatigue and less effective play as the game progressed. This could have impacted their performance, especially in the second half of the game. Arniel describing the game as "embarrassing" and a "horseshit job" from top to bottom underscores a general lack of execution across all aspects of the game. These factors combined to create a situation where Utah was able to capitalize on the Jets' mistakes, leading to a 5-2 victory. The game highlighted issues with Winnipeg's strategy, execution, and perhaps their readiness for the match.

Connor was pretty bad yesterday. He had a great shift on the pk where he killed some time by keeping puck in offensive zone, but, other than that not a good game. I wonder about playing your best players on the Pk. It might work for a team with a more equal spread of minutes, but, I wonder if fatigue starts taking hold when you play 20 minutes even strength and then pk. I wonder if the Jets could have got the same thing from Ehlers while keeping Connor more fresh.
I think it's the same reason why Lowry isn't on the 2nd unit powerplay, even though he'd be an upgrade on when they were running 2 d.

 

[voyageur]

Connor was pretty bad yesterday. He had a great shift on the pk where he killed some time by keeping puck in offensive zone, but, other than that not a good game. I wonder about playing your best players on the Pk. It might work for a team with a more equal spread of minutes, but, I wonder if fatigue starts taking hold when you play 20 minutes even strength and then pk. I wonder if the Jets could have got the same thing from Ehlers while keeping Connor more fresh.
I think it's the same reason why Lowry isn't on the 2nd unit powerplay, even though he'd be an upgrade on when they were running 2 d.

I'm not sure you can fault Connor on any goals. Scheif looks like he is skating in cement out there on the backcheck. I'm sure Arniel had something to say about the 3rd goal, where Kupari stopped skating to backcheck, and just basically gave a free lane to the net for Hayton, which made a lost one on one battle by Pionk look even worse.

Connor wasn't great, but Scheifele wasn't great, and Vilardi definitely wasn't great. The impact of him coming back and giving up shots on net, vs. Keller coming back and going to the net, was noticeable.

Definitely think Ehlers was the best player out there, and maybe he could have generated more offense with more ice time.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not sure you can fault Connor on any goals. Scheif looks like he is skating in cement out there on the backcheck. I'm sure Arniel had something to say about the 3rd goal, where Kupari stopped skating to backcheck, and just basically gave a free lane to the net for Hayton, which made a lost one on one battle by Pionk look even worse.

Connor wasn't great, but Scheifele wasn't great, and Vilardi definitely wasn't great. The impact of him coming back and giving up shots on net, vs. Keller coming back and going to the net, was noticeable.

Definitely think Ehlers was the best player out there, and maybe he could have generated more offense with more ice time.

I never said any of the goals were on Connor. He wasn’t bad he just wasn’t dynamic. He is often our best player and hasn’t been the last 2 games where it has been ehlers.
Granted ehlers didn’t create anything for majority of game till last 10 minutes.

 

[voyageur]

There is basically only one team playing perfect hockey right now and its Washington.
Vegas looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now they've lost like 4 straight.
LA looked unstoppable 2 weeks ago and now theyve lost 4 of their last 5.
Schedule doesn't get much easier from here on out and even if we play .500 we'll still most likely make the playoffs. I just want everyone to be healthy for when that time comes.

No recalls from the moose bodes well for Lowry but nothing is certain

Toninato hasn't been sent down either, so it's also possible Appleton comes back and Lowry goes on IR.

Chibrikov is now out long term according to Moose coach, so if the Jets are looking for more scoring internally I think Lambert is the only option right now.

 

[DRW204]

It appears the Jets did not show the necessary emotional involvement or energy until they were already significantly behind in the game. This lack of intensity from the start might have contributed to their inability to effectively counter Utah's offensive plays. The Jets D core had a notably poor performance. This suggests that the Jets' D were not able to contain Utah's offensive strategies, allowing too many scoring opportunities. The Jets did not get any power play opportunities during the game, which could have helped them tie or take the lead. This absence of special teams plays meant they couldn’t capitalize on potential momentum shifts. Despite with Helle in goal, the Jets couldn't provide enough support in terms of scoring or defensive plays. This lack of support left Helle dealing with numerous shots and scoring chances without the offensive backup needed to keep the game competitive. The Jets first line playing long shifts, possibly leading to fatigue and less effective play as the game progressed. This could have impacted their performance, especially in the second half of the game. Arniel describing the game as "embarrassing" and a "horseshit job" from top to bottom underscores a general lack of execution across all aspects of the game. These factors combined to create a situation where Utah was able to capitalize on the Jets' mistakes, leading to a 5-2 victory. The game highlighted issues with Winnipeg's strategy, execution, and perhaps their readiness for the match.

this is such a great write up that i thought it was AI generated haha.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

It's wild because watching the highlights of the Wild-Colorado and Minnesota just pumped them. Out skated them. Team got contributions from young skaters on defense, Faber and Jiricek. Colorado has lost a few recently, before that Minnesota lost a few.

Dallas has been steadier, but they can lose to anyone to.

These teams like Utah and St. Louis are definitely not out of the playoff race, they are a good two weeks of hockey from being in the 8th seed. I'd say that most Jets fans would consider Utah a better team than Calgary.

It's the home record vs. the away record that probably needs some analysis. Without Adam Lowry matching up against other team's best players how good are the Jets? I'd say Scheifele was outskated by Cooley.

Jets still have the most physically punishing Eastern teams to play on the road, so I won't discount the possibility they could fall further off the perch.

All good points .Col strikes me as a team hat can turn it on for the playoffs based on last years first round annihilation. There is lots of parody but fortunately the Jets have put themselves in a good position with strong start that allows them to play .500 hockey and make the playoffs. The issue is how they play in the playoffs. Perfetti , Connor and Elher's are all concerns during the playoffs as in can they adapt to the style of play and how much gas he will Helle have left in the tank!

 

[johnnyonthspot]

The Avalanche have two regulation wins in their last ten games and have lost to the Blackhawks and Canadiens during that time. Why don’t you apply the same pessimism to other teams that you do to the Jets?

I appreciate the question. I do not really care about other teams enough to take a position other than on the leaf's who will win the cup. Moreover, my concern is whether or not the Jets can adapt to playoff play.

Col for example, as we all know, they humiliated the Jets last playoffs after losing every regular season game to them, which almost proved regular season is meaningless for some teams

Col has also shown they can play playoff hockey, their big 3 of Mackinnon, Makar and and Rantenan are all world and better than the Jets top 3 players. They are also down Nichushkin right now who is a key player and a noted Jet killer as is Lehkonen.

I hope that clarifies my position/concern.

 

[Jets 31]

The Jets played a shity game, one in a row, if we played another 6 or 7 in a row like that then i would be concerned. I have read many opposing coach's rave about the Jets after playing against them this season so i will take last night as a bad night and move on to the next game. People think they can't be critical about the Jets on here, absolutely they can but after 1 bad game saying this is who this team is, that's a little goofy. That's like saying after 1 good game we are winning the Cup , no different to me.

 

[White Out 902]

The Avalanche have two regulation wins in their last ten games and have lost to the Blackhawks and Canadiens during that time. Why don’t you apply the same pessimism to other teams that you do to the Jets?

Does this answer your question?

 

[Weezeric]

Does this answer your question?View attachment 964835

So only teams who have won the cup in the past will have playoff success? Before the Avs won, they were known as playoff failures who hadn’t made it past the second round in 15+ years.