Let's say Kane wants to sign in Buffalo and Panarin waives. We'll play the game.
How much do you think Kane is signing for in the offseason? We'll also say he's lost a little step and he's now a 75 point player. How much do you think that's worth signing for?
Now, Panarin waives and he's got a cap hit of 11.6 million.
Okposo isn't re-signed and that 6 million goes to Tage Tompson and his increased cap hit from the new contract he signed. They need to sign a goalie and they have Dahlin and Powers coming up a year later. That's not very smart. They probably would like to have some cap to make other changes as well.
It's not smart for Buffalo to want Panarin even if he waives.
Let's play the game ... of numbers and logic.
"Let's say Kane wants to sign in Buffalo and Panarin waives"
Thank you for allowing the premise with an open mind.
"How much do you think Kane is signing for in the offseason? We'll also say he's lost a little step and he's now a 75 point player. How much do you think that's worth signing for?"
It is not wholly inconsiderate to go there. But Kane is not a generic 75 pt guy. He just turned 34. He's also 5'10, and if the wheels fall off, he's reduced to raw skill. So at most, a generic team with cap space should not go more than 6,
maybe 6.5 on a 3ish yr deal max term.
Kane has made many tens of millions. He can afford to give Sabes a hometown discount, and will, if he sees a commitment to not have the $$$ pissed away. So answer to your ? is around 4ish m, a little more, maybe.
"Now, Panarin waives and he's got a cap hit of 11.6 million."
I already said NYR retain 1.6 per to get him down to exactly 10m per.
Don't see taking it down to 9m per will be necessary.
"Okposo isn't re-signed and that 6 million goes to Tage Tompson and his increased cap hit from the new contract he signed."
concur
"They need to sign a goalie and they have Dahlin and Powers coming up a year later. That's not very smart. They probably would like to have some cap to make other changes as well."
They currently have 16.9m in cap space now. Say they do 10 on bread and 4 on PK = 14.
That leaves 2m.
League wide increase likely to be 1.5m on the low side, 4.5m on the high side; call it 3m.
That's 2 + 3 = 5m post adding bread and Kane.
Bread is only 3 yrs after this. And Kane will be 3 or so down but really yr to yr.
So it is not like this is 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 yrs on either which compounds salary issues for Powers, etc., esp long term.
As to the valid pts about $$ for other moves, I look at that roster and I see need for $ for guys who get raises and I see coupla mill here and there for deadwood earning a mi here, 2+ there, etc, etc, and these guys can be replaced by cheaper. So call that a wash.
I agree they need a real netminder, but there is no guarantee a guy who can actually deliver can be had for any amount of money. They have to get lucky like TOR and NJ this yr finding guys who are hit or miss but are working out.
So for all of the above I disagree w/yer conclusion:
"It's not smart for Buffalo to want Panarin even if he waives."
And in fact bread could be dif maker betw Kane coming and taking 4 or going a yr at a time to highest bidder w/Cup chances.
If everything is ballpark =, Sabes should pursue this.
