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Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

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Leafs for reference were 5th in goals Matthews rookie year and 3rd in goals his second year, with Marner and Nylander also there. Hawks were 32nd in goals last year and 29th in goals this year. The guy Bedard helped prop up last year (Kurashev) looks like he's played his way out of the League. Hawks are equally as bad post coaching change but now they're the score more, get scored on more type of bad, and Bedard has 20 points in 18 games since the switch.
 
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Wondercarrot said:
I’m going to say about 40g and 100pts, just like he did on a god awful Pittsburgh team.
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I'm going to say hell no. Pitt wasn't in the same zip code bad as the Hawks of this era.

Crosby and Ovechkin also had their points totals inflated from the new obstruction rules changes than came in , in their rookie year. Which has been mentioned a million times already.

Nogatco Rd said:
Ranked #3 in Pronman’s latest list of players and prospects under 23
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I knew there must be a reason I've never heard of him.

He has Celibrini at the top. So he's saying Celibrini is better than Bedard. Celibrini is good but it's just not a very well thought out call to say he's better than Bedard.
 
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Brookbank said:
I'm going to say hell no. Pitt wasn't in the same zip code bad as the Hawks of this era.

Crosby and Ovechkin also had their points totals inflated from the new obstruction rules changes than came in , in their rookie year. Which has been mentioned a million times already.


I knew there must be a reason I've never heard of him.

He has Celibrini at the top. So he's saying Celibrini is better than Bedard. Celibrini is good but it's just not a very well thought out call to say he's better than Bedard.
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They were in exactly the same zip code, and in fact lived on the same street.
Are you suggesting Crosby scored 40 more points in their comparative rookie seasons because of inflated scoring?

How about this - Crosby is one of the top 5 players of all time, and it’s simply because he’s so great.
 
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Wondercarrot said:
They were in exactly the same zip code, and in fact lived on the same street.
Are you suggesting Crosby scored 40 more points in their comparative rookie seasons because of inflated scoring?

How about this - Crosby is one of the top 5 players of all time, and it’s simply because he’s so great.
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Pitt was 17th in goals scored Crosby's rookie year. They still sucked because they were 30th (out of 30) in goals against. Even in their tanky year two years earlier they were "only" 22/30 in goals scored (and 30 out of 30 in goals against). 495 powerplay opportunities compared to 235 Bedard's rookie year because that's just how League rolled then. Pens as a team had 65 more goals scored in Crosby's rookie year than Chicago in Bedard's.

Gonchar .773 PPG, Recchi .905 PPG, Leclair .699 PPG, Malone .571 PPG, Palffy 1.00 PPG (42 gp), Armstrong .851 PPG against Kurashev .72 PPG, Foligno .5 PPG, Dickinson .427 PPG, Jones .463 PPG, Johnson .463 PPG, Donato .385 PPG.

How is that remotely comparable, lol.
 
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WarriorofTime said:
Pitt was 17th in goals scored Crosby's rookie year. They still sucked because they were 30th (out of 30) in goals against. Even in their tanky year two years earlier they were "only" 22/30 in goals scored (and 30 out of 30 in goals against). 495 powerplay opportunities compared to 235 Bedard's rookie year because that's just how League rolled then. Pens as a team had 65 more goals scored in Crosby's rookie year than Chicago in Bedard's.

Gonchar .773 PPG, Recchi .905 PPG, Leclair .699 PPG, Malone .571 PPG, Palffy 1.00 PPG (42 gp), Armstrong .851 PPG against Kurashev .72 PPG, Foligno .5 PPG, Dickinson .427 PPG, Jones .463 PPG, Johnson .463 PPG, Donato .385 PPG.

How is that remotely comparable, lol.
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I always laugh when I see these PP #s post lockout

McDavid could have probably hit 200 points in a year with this many attempts
 
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WarriorofTime said:
Leafs for reference were 5th in goals Matthews rookie year and 3rd in goals his second year, with Marner and Nylander also there. Hawks were 32nd in goals last year and 29th in goals this year. The guy Bedard helped prop up last year (Kurashev) looks like he's played his way out of the League. Hawks are equally as bad post coaching change but now they're the score more, get scored on more type of bad, and Bedard has 20 points in 18 games since the switch.
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So it’s just the teams they’re on, that explains the difference? 🤣
 
CanadasTeam99 said:
I always laugh when I see these PP #s post lockout

McDavid could have probably hit 200 points in a year with this many attempts
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The top players score more now than they did back then. Goalies equipment has been reduced in size, way more empty net goals and 3on3.
 
authentic said:
The top players score more now than they did back then. Goalies equipment has been reduced in size, way more empty net goals and 3on3.
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All true and valid points. There is so much to consider season to season so you’ll never know with certainty what a player would do on a different team in a different year. With that being said McDavid’s 153 from 2023 adjusts to 180 in the 2006 environment (ESG, PPG and SHG levels all accounted for). That’s just league average let alone the pens with 495 opportunities yielding 94 goals. McDavid was the driver of the greatest powerplay ever by percentage with 89 powerplay goals on 275 attempts. It sounds silly but 200 points might have been there for him in the 2006 season with 500 PPO. Maybe not on that pens team but if that oilers team was transported to 2006.
 
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WalterLundy said:
All true and valid points. There is so much to consider season to season so you’ll never know with certainty what a player would do on a different team in a different year. With that being said McDavid’s 153 from 2023 adjusts to 180 in the 2006 environment (ESG, PPG and SHG levels all accounted for). That’s just league average let alone the pens with 495 opportunities yielding 94 goals. McDavid was the driver of the greatest powerplay ever by percentage with 89 powerplay goals on 275 attempts. It sounds silly but 200 points might have been there for him in the 2006 season with 500 PPO. Maybe not on that pens team but if that oilers team was transported to 2006.
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Seems weird that 153pts in 2023 when league-wide scoring was 3.14 goals per game would translate to 180pts in 2006 when league-wide scoring was 3.03 goals per game. I know there is difference in PP's, etc....but that still seems really weird.
 
Toby91ca said:
Seems weird that 153pts in 2023 when league-wide scoring was 3.14 goals per game would translate to 180pts in 2006 when league-wide scoring was 3.03 goals per game. I know there is difference in PP's, etc....but that still seems really weird.
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2006: 1.86 ESG, 1.03 PPG, 0.13 SHG
2023: 2.39 ESG, 0.65 PPG, 0.10 SHG

McDavid had 75 ESP, 71 PPP and 7 SHP in 2023. His even strength totals go down, his powerplay totals go up dramatically and his shorthanded totals also rise. There are only 3 seasons with higher/as high powerplay scoring environments as 2005-06 (1.11 for 1988, 1.06 in 1989 and 1.03 in 1993).

When you consider that McDavid had the 4th highest single season powerplay points and compare to the top 3 (80 for Lemieux in 1988, 79 for Lemieux in 1989 and 79 for Lemieux in 1996) it’s wild how much higher powerplay goals and opportunities were. We are talking about 1.11, 1.06 and 0.90 for the Lemieux seasons compared to 0.65 for 2023. McDavid’s is easily the best powerplay season ever when you apply context as he did it in one of the lowest powerplay years ever. Now translate that to a year that PPOs were handed out like candy and you get a crazy number. The oilers also had the highest conversion rate in the history of the league on the power play. 89 goals on 275 PPO is unheard of.

Point being on the surface it looks odd when you look at raw G/GP but with the special teams stats being what they are it makes sense.
 
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people are still talking about McDavid while the true generational talent of the era now in his second year so yeah he's underrated
 
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WalterLundy said:
2006: 1.86 ESG, 1.03 PPG, 0.13 SHG
2023: 2.39 ESG, 0.65 PPG, 0.10 SHG

McDavid had 75 ESP, 71 PPP and 7 SHP in 2023. His even strength totals go down, his powerplay totals go up dramatically and his shorthanded totals also rise. There are only 3 seasons with higher/as high powerplay scoring environments as 2005-06 (1.11 for 1988, 1.06 in 1989 and 1.03 in 1993).

When you consider that McDavid had the 4th highest single season powerplay points and compare to the top 3 (80 for Lemieux in 1988, 79 for Lemieux in 1989 and 79 for Lemieux in 1996) it’s wild how much higher powerplay goals and opportunities were. We are talking about 1.11, 1.06 and 0.90 for the Lemieux seasons compared to 0.65 for 2023. McDavid’s is easily the best powerplay season ever when you apply context as he did it in one of the lowest powerplay years ever. Now translate that to a year that PPOs were handed out like candy and you get a crazy number. The oilers also had the highest conversion rate in the history of the league on the power play. 89 goals on 275 PPO is unheard of.

Point being on the surface it looks odd when you look at raw G/GP but with the special teams stats being what they are it makes sense.
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PP and PK systems were completely different back then, you can't make this comparison in this way.
 
WalterLundy said:
2006: 1.86 ESG, 1.03 PPG, 0.13 SHG
2023: 2.39 ESG, 0.65 PPG, 0.10 SHG

McDavid had 75 ESP, 71 PPP and 7 SHP in 2023. His even strength totals go down, his powerplay totals go up dramatically and his shorthanded totals also rise. There are only 3 seasons with higher/as high powerplay scoring environments as 2005-06 (1.11 for 1988, 1.06 in 1989 and 1.03 in 1993).

When you consider that McDavid had the 4th highest single season powerplay points and compare to the top 3 (80 for Lemieux in 1988, 79 for Lemieux in 1989 and 79 for Lemieux in 1996) it’s wild how much higher powerplay goals and opportunities were. We are talking about 1.11, 1.06 and 0.90 for the Lemieux seasons compared to 0.65 for 2023. McDavid’s is easily the best powerplay season ever when you apply context as he did it in one of the lowest powerplay years ever. Now translate that to a year that PPOs were handed out like candy and you get a crazy number. The oilers also had the highest conversion rate in the history of the league on the power play. 89 goals on 275 PPO is unheard of.

Point being on the surface it looks odd when you look at raw G/GP but with the special teams stats being what they are it makes sense.
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Yeah, but this just highlights a bit for me why adjusted stats are super flawed. Obviously they are completely made up and meaningless, but for sake of comparison, you compare 2022-23 to 2005-06 and show drastic difference with PP being 0.65 to 1.03 and because he scored so many PP pts in 2022-23, his total pts would increase dramatically even though total goals aren’t much different. However, why don’t we just look at the very next year. 2023-24, PP goals were about the same, 0.63, but his PPP went from 71 down to 44. If he didn’t play in that year and we were to adjust his 2022-23 stats we’d assume he’d have around 70 PPP but he was nowhere close
 
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