Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[Machinehead]

That doesn't mean anything Bedard has done (or has shown he is capable of doing) is HHOF worthy.



Strong 1OA, yes, but not all teenage phenoms see their numbers translate.

The other players who were GPG and APG in the CHL before they turned 18 are a pretty good indication, actually.

Lafreniere and Daigle are the only junior players in Bedard's zip code who aren't/won't be.

 

[Regal]

I’ll keep harping on it as much as I need to as well. Nobody comes in and lights the nhl on fire as a teenager or a player coming straight out of junior right now. It was much much more common even outside from so called “generational talents” for players to hit the ground running not so long ago. Jeff Skinner finished 38th in points as an 18 year old rookie in 2010-11. Straight up nobody is doing that today. Look at the players drafted high near Bedard and compare it to all the high draft picks then. Jeff Skinnner isnt better than every player drafted in the last seven years. It was just a friendlier environment for young players to stand out early on. Different time periods in nhl history produce different outcomes. It’d be like looking at Denis Savard having seasons of 131, 121, 119 and 116 points and asking why it feels like nobody is as good as Savard now. It’s just a different era.

I don’t think I buy that. The game’s offensive oriented style and lack of physicality makes it better than ever for teenagers to stand out. These guys are also training like professionals for years before they get to the NHL. Skinner was a pretty random one-off. I think Covid affected the development of a lot of guys so recent drafts haven’t been as strong out of the gate, and we kind of go through ebbs and flows when it comes to talent coming into the league. I don’t see how an 18 year old Skinner, or rookie McDavid, Matthews, Laine or whoever would do any worse today. That said, I do think Bedard’s production is better for a teenager than some make it out to be. He still projects to be a superstar even if he isn’t on a Crosby/McDavid level

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don’t think I buy that.

You don't "buy" it? It's just a fact.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I agree with you but would you have had the same logic in 2023 and pick Carlsson instead of Bedard? You can use hindsight for this one not a problem

For the record, Carlsson was my choice in 2023 for about the same reasons you mentioned.

I would have taken Bedard 1st, but the gap between him and Carlsson wasn't nearly as big for me as it seemed to be for everyone else. I think their upsides are similar, but Bedard's downside is higher than Leo's IMO

Bedard's upside case is still that of a 50+ goal 120+ point player, like a better version of Patrick Kane. His downside is probably a defensively liable 80-90 point scoring winger who still thrives on the PP, ala Kyle Connor.

Leo's upside is probably closer to an Anze Kopitar type, capable of 90+ points while being an elite defensive center, while his downside is probably a ~50 point 2nd line matchup center like Danault, JEE, or Backlund.

The other players who were GPG and APG in the CHL before they turned 18 are a pretty good indication, actually.

Lafreniere and Daigle are the only junior players in Bedard's zip code who aren't/won't be.

And Drouin?

 

[Machinehead]

And Drouin?

Yeah, that's true.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yeah, that's true.

Maybe Pierre Marc Bouchard too. In the last 25 years in the Q, only Crosby, PMB, and Drouin had >2.0 ppg seasons as 17 year olds. (Lafreniere's 17 year old season wasn't actually that impressive, he's just a late birthday.)

In the OHL, its just McDavid and Gagner, and only Bedard in the WHL.

Going back a bit further, you could probably argue Rob Brown as in Bedard's neighborhood, statisticall. Even though it was a higher scoring era, he still beasted the WHL as a 17 year old"

Though I guess Rob Brown

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I’ll keep harping on it as much as I need to as well. Nobody comes in and lights the nhl on fire as a teenager or a player coming straight out of junior right now. It was much much more common even outside from so called “generational talents” for players to hit the ground running not so long ago. Jeff Skinner finished 38th in points as an 18 year old rookie in 2010-11. Straight up nobody is doing that today. Look at the players drafted high near Bedard and compare it to all the high draft picks then. Jeff Skinnner isnt better than every player drafted in the last seven years. It was just a friendlier environment for young players to stand out early on. Different time periods in nhl history produce different outcomes. It’d be like looking at Denis Savard having seasons of 131, 121, 119 and 116 points and asking why it feels like nobody is as good as Savard now. It’s just a different era.

You say that, but that's exactly what Celebrini is doing...

We aren't seeing and McDavid or Crosby type performances because right now because there aren't any young players in the league of that caliber. The reality is that most of the forwards picked 1OA after Matthews weren't really expected to be big time scorers right off the bat.

Hischier - met expectations as a rookie, as he was never expected to be an elite scorer
Hughes - below expectations, but it wasn't shocking as he was not physically ready for the NHL
Lafreniere - below expectations, he was just not as good as people thought
Slafkovsky - below expectations, but was known to be a bit of a project
Bedard - met expectations for those of off comparing him to Patrick Kane, He never should have been compared to 87/97.
Celebrini - exceeding expectations

Lafreniere is probably the only recent 1OA forward whose struggles as a teenager surprised people a bit.

 

[BHawk21]

Celebrini has been great. 28 points in 31 games and good defensively.

Bedard had 28 points in his first 31 games as well.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You say that, but that's exactly what Celebrini is doing...

0.9 PPG in 31 games, 3rd on team in points

Bedard is 0.875 PPG in 40 games, a solid 10 points better than any teammate

You can't say one lights the world on fire and the other struggles. Celebrini's PPG now is basically identical to Bedard's PPG last season.

 

[Brookbank]

Roennick was not impressed

Roennick is a boomer that Bedard doesn't care about

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

0.9 PPG in 31 games, 3rd on team in points

Bedard is 0.875 PPG in 40 games, a solid 10 points better than any teammate

You can't say one lights the world on fire and the other struggles. Celebrini's PPG now is basically identical to Bedard's PPG last season.

Bedard only struggled vs expectations of a generational player, but he had an extremely productive offensive season, only slightly below my expectations (though he was even worse defensively than I expected).

Celebrini is leading the sharks in PPG and is scoring at a 34 goal pace while playing a very complete game for a teenager. He's putting up a rookie season more comparable to Matthews than Bedard did, because of the goal scoring and better two way play.

In terms of overall impact, Celebrini's first 31 games are than anything we've seen from Bedard to date. To argue Berdard is generational, then you have to put Celebrini in that category as well (and I don't think he is).

 

[WarriorofTime]

Bedard only struggled vs expectations of a generational player, but he had an extremely productive offensive season, only slightly below my expectations (though he was even worse defensively than I expected).

Celebrini is leading the sharks in PPG and is scoring at a 34 goal pace while playing a very complete game for a teenager. He's putting up a rookie season more comparable to Matthews than Bedard did, because of the goal scoring and better two way play.

In terms of overall impact, Celebrini's first 31 games are than anything we've seen from Bedard to date. To argue Berdard is generational, then you have to put Celebrini in that category as well (and I don't think he is).

Nah, this isn't a Bedard vs. Celebrini debate. We were talking about lighting the world on fire, being right near league scoring leads as a player coming out of Junior or as teenager. Rookie Matt Barzal was 13th in NHL in points as an NHL Rookie when he played in the WHL one season earlier in 2017-18. This is the stuff that's missing since then. Celebrini is 101st in points right now, or 53rd in PPG with a 20 GP filter. So a small slump and he's right around where Matt Duchene (70th in points) as an 18 year old rookie was in 2010-11. Matthews was 2nd in League in Goals as 19 year old (D+1) Rookie. Celebrini isn't on the top 50 page in goals right now. It's "more comparable to Matthews" in the same way Patrick Maroon is "more comparable" to McDavid than to a college player.

I realize I need to present this in a clear and obvious format, but it's very apparent young guys are taking a longer time to crack the lists right now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nah, this isn't a Bedard vs. Celebrini debate. We were talking about lighting the world on fire, being right near league scoring leads as a player coming out of Junior or as teenager. Rookie Matt Barzal was 13th in NHL in points as an NHL Rookie when he played in the WHL one season earlier in 2017-18. This is the stuff that's missing since then. Celebrini is 101st in points right now, or 53rd in PPG with a 20 GP filter. So a small slump and he's right around where Matt Duchene (70th in points) as an 18 year old rookie was in 2010-11. Matthews was 2nd in League in Goals as 19 year old (D+1) Rookie. Celebrini isn't on the top 50 page in goals right now. It's "more comparable to Matthews" in the same way Patrick Maroon is "more comparable" to McDavid than to a college player.

I realize I need to present this in a clear and obvious format, but it's very apparent young guys are taking a longer time to crack the lists right now.

I don't disagree that it's harder for young guys vs previously, I'm saying that's not a reasonable explanation for why Bedard struggling to live up to his generational billing. It's the same reason why Celebrini would also be falling short of those expectations. Because neither of them are generational

To say "no one comes in today and lights the league on fire" makes it sound like 18 year old McDavid and Crosby wouldn't dominate today's NHL, but that very obviously would.

 

[Regal]

You don't "buy" it? It's just a fact.

Based on what? Your own analysis of a handful of examples? Please

 

[Regal]

Nah, this isn't a Bedard vs. Celebrini debate. We were talking about lighting the world on fire, being right near league scoring leads as a player coming out of Junior or as teenager. Rookie Matt Barzal was 13th in NHL in points as an NHL Rookie when he played in the WHL one season earlier in 2017-18. This is the stuff that's missing since then. Celebrini is 101st in points right now, or 53rd in PPG with a 20 GP filter. So a small slump and he's right around where Matt Duchene (70th in points) as an 18 year old rookie was in 2010-11. Matthews was 2nd in League in Goals as 19 year old (D+1) Rookie. Celebrini isn't on the top 50 page in goals right now. It's "more comparable to Matthews" in the same way Patrick Maroon is "more comparable" to McDavid than to a college player.

I realize I need to present this in a clear and obvious format, but it's very apparent young guys are taking a longer time to crack the lists right now.

Barzal came in at 20 in his 3rd year after the draft. He also struggled to produce the same going forward. I don’t see why that’s any different than say Stutzle or Jack Hughes being 1Cs in their 3rd years after the draft. Not sure why entering the NHl earlier and breaking out at the same age suggests players are taking longer?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Barzal came in at 20 in his 3rd year after the draft.

OK, care to list multiple examples of Matt Barzal level prospects that stepped directly from Junior and had comparable performances as rookies?

Based on what? Your own analysis of a handful of examples? Please

Certainly better than having none, but shooting from the hip on what you "buy"

I don’t see why that’s any different than say Stutzle or Jack Hughes being 1Cs in their 3rd years after the draft. Not sure why entering the NHl earlier and breaking out at the same age suggests players are taking longer?

To clarify, you don't see why additional years of NHL experience play a role?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't disagree that it's harder for young guys vs previously, I'm saying that's not a reasonable explanation for why Bedard struggling to live up to his generational billing. It's the same reason why Celebrini would also be falling short of those expectations. Because neither of them are generational

To say "no one comes in today and lights the league on fire" makes it sound like 18 year old McDavid and Crosby wouldn't dominate today's NHL, but that very obviously would.

Don't really care about "generational", it's just a thing people to say. If Bedard were to theoretically win 4 or 5 Art Rosses between Age 23-30 [not saying he will but for purposes of hypo] then the history guys can sort out if that means he was "generational" because he had a lot of hype as a Junior, had good but not world lighting production at 18-21 and then was great in his prime.

No clue how many points 18-19 year old Crosby puts up on the 2023-24 or 2024-25 Blackhawks, presumably a good deal, not sure he transforms them into a winner... that's just guess work as much as how many points Gordie Howe would have in the 2020s. It's an analysis of chasing ghosts. Thread title isn't "is Bedard generational?" just is he underrated.

 

[authentic]

I don't disagree that it's harder for young guys vs previously, I'm saying that's not a reasonable explanation for why Bedard struggling to live up to his generational billing. It's the same reason why Celebrini would also be falling short of those expectations. Because neither of them are generational

To say "no one comes in today and lights the league on fire" makes it sound like 18 year old McDavid and Crosby wouldn't dominate today's NHL, but that very obviously would.

I would honestly be surprised if rookie Crosby didn’t score more points than current Crosby in todays NHL.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Don't really care about "generational", it's just a thing people to say. If Bedard were to theoretically win 4 or 5 Art Rosses between Age 23-30 [not saying he will but for purposes of hypo] then the history guys can sort out if that means he was "generational" because he had a lot of hype as a Junior, had good but not world lighting production at 18-21 and then was great in his prime.

No clue how many points 18-19 year old Crosby puts up on the 2023-24 or 2024-25 Blackhawks, presumably a good deal, not sure he transforms them into a winner... that's just guess work as much as how many points Gordie Howe would have in the 2020s. It's an analysis of chasing ghosts. Thread title isn't "is Bedard generational?" just is he underrated.

Call it whatever you want, he doesn't belong in the same conversation as Crosby and McDavid, and trying to dismiss that fact as "chasing ghosts" is disingenuous. Bedard hasn't even been the best teenager in the league this year, and I don't think anyone would argue that the other kid is anywhere near Crosby or McDavid.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Call it whatever you want, he doesn't belong in the same conversation as Crosby and McDavid, and trying to dismiss that fact as "chasing ghosts" is disingenuous.

Huh? What is “disingenuous”?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Huh? What is “disingenuous”?

"not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does."

And yes, I see the irony in you asking this instead of addressing my post.

 

[Wondercarrot]

No clue how many points 18-19 year old Crosby puts up on the 2023-24 or 2024-25 Blackhawks, presumably a good deal, not sure he transforms them into a winner... that's just guess work as much as how many points Gordie Howe would have in the 2020s. It's an analysis of chasing ghosts. Thread title isn't "is Bedard generational?" just is he underrated.

I’m going to say about 40g and 100pts, just like he did on a god awful Pittsburgh team.

 

[Crow]

He has been playing the best hockey of his career lately and he is going to get even better. Him not being as good as Crosby at the same age still matters not one bit to his ceiling no matter how many times people repeat it.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

8 game points streak now:

4 goals - 7 assists

 

[DeletedUser539]

He has been playing the best hockey of his career lately and he is going to get even better. Him not being as good as Crosby at the same age still matters not one bit to his ceiling no matter how many times people repeat it.

People didn't expect Mackinnon to become what he did even after he broke out when people questioned his ability after his first four years he did what it took talked to a sports psychologist, changed his diet and takes the off-season more serious than anybody no golfing just dry land and rink time