This one is the hardest to predict because:
MacKinnon just won, meaning he's suffering from voter fatigue. Plus his team is in a wildcard spot rather than solidly in a playoff spot. But the Avs are rolling and should finish the season strong.
It's way too hard to give the award to Draisaitl with McDavid four points behind him (in 3 fewer games). Fair or not, everyone knows that McDavid is the best player on that team. Draisaitl would need to beat McDavid by at least 10 points to give himself a shot.
Kaprizov had a good argument before he got injured. But now he's 16 points back of MacKinnon. I don't think you can give him the Hart when he's so far behind in the scoring race. Plus the Wild are on a 4 game winning streak without him in the lineup. They are just a good team.
I really think this should be the year where it goes to a goaltender (Hellebuyck) or a defenceman (Hughes).
Do I think the voters would actually vote that way? Not a chance in hell.
But Hellebuyck is leading the Jets to the best record in the NHL while Hughes is carrying an anemic (both offensively and defensively) Vancouver squad to a wildcard playoff spot in a season where they've been missing their #1 goaltender, #2 defenceman, #1 and #2 center, #1 winger and even Hughes himself for extended periods of time.