Value of: Habs moving up using the WPG 2024 1st (#26) + CAL/FLA 2025 1st + MTL 2024 3rd + PIT 2025 2nd

[Habs Halifax]

You're right. This draft is incredibly shallow as you get out of the teens. So the gap between a pick in the top 14 or so, and 26th overall, is in fact LARGER than the models would suggest.

I forgot to consider that in my valuations.

You don't this one bit. All you know is the popular bandwagon party that is going on. General feeling says the top 13 is good. After that? It's major guesses and each teams draft board will be built different. Some teams will be like meh... not much there. Other teams will be like, I like a few options.

It's almost like the gullible factor has kicked into facts. Like the top 13 will all be sure shot hits and from 14-32 will be just NHL depth or busts. I don't know about you but I've been tracking the draft for a very long time and this deep draft narrative or cluster is a game for fools.

 

[General Fanager]

Go broke or go home..... HABS have 4 1st round picks in 24/25 .. package them all, add prospect (D).

Get pick 2 , 3 ?

Get DemiGod and go home!

no..

I dont think the difference between Demidov and one of the other forwards is 3 other 1st round picks and a d prospect

use #5 and trade the others to get a pick in the lower teens and maybe walk away with Iggy and Eiserman or Sennecke

Thats a win imo.

 

[dgibb10]

I'm sure it I'd if you are a MTL fan

Cgy likely is in top 10 , fja pick in mid 20s so 2 mid 20s 1st rounders for s pick around 10 Is not happenin

Hence why there are 2 other assets involved.

 

[dgibb10]

None of us know what GMs think of that pick but personally i woudlnt trade it its very possible that pick ends up #11/15 or that FLA after losing a few players in the offseason and an injury to a key player in the regular season fall off specially after a long playoff run you think SJ knew they would be giving away 3rd overall in the Karlsson trade?

I have no problem trading the WIN pick + to move up but i rather it play it safe with our Flames pick

But the most likely scenario for the '25 pick is between 11 and 28. I wouldn't do it because I think there's a good enough chance for Calgary to end up picking 11-16.

Can MTL fans cut the act about this pick?

Sure any team could hypothetically finish anywhere. That's not how teams value future picks.

Excellent point about the Karlsson trade. If you're trying to buy a year ahead, that risk of giving up a high pick goes to the buyer.

No GM is believing the "Well if a actively rebuilding team with no incentive to finish outside of the bottom 10 and a horrific roster somehow magically manages to do good, but not too good, or if the team in the final 4, with the best analytics and the best goal differential in hockey suddenly falls off then this could maybe be a pick around 12th" spiel and valuing that florida pick as anything other than the future contenders 1st that it is.

 

[Bond]

Unfortunately, Calgary has this amazing ability to play themselves out of contention by winning games they shouldn't against teams they shouldn't in no win scenarios.

Hoping for a Calgary team to finish drafting top 10 could easily turn in to pick #11 rom the flames as much as say pick 28 from Florida

Calgary has a bottom 5-10 D core and bottom 10 F core. If they trade Markstrom they are definitely going to be bottom 10.

 

[dgibb10]

It's not a pick that should be traded at all.

Over the last 3 years the team who's 1sts have been the least valuable are the panthers. 28th,31st,29th-32nd


GMs are not valuing the panthers pick highly

 

[jfhabs]

Can MTL fans cut the act about this pick?

Sure any team could hypothetically finish anywhere. That's not how teams value future picks.

Excellent point about the Karlsson trade. If you're trying to buy a year ahead, that risk of giving up a high pick goes to the buyer.

No GM is believing the "Well if a actively rebuilding team with no incentive to finish outside of the bottom 10 and a horrific roster somehow magically manages to do good, but not too good, or if the team in the final 4, with the best analytics and the best goal differential in hockey suddenly falls off then this could maybe be a pick around 12th" spiel and valuing that florida pick as anything other than the future contenders 1st that it is.

There's a decent chance CGY finish 11th or 12th last.
They still have good players. Crazier things happen every season.
The most likely outcome is we get the Florida pick in the 22-32 range. But there's probably 25% chance we get a pick in the teens. That possibility exist, it's dumb to simply ignore it ...

 

[dgibb10]

There's a decent chance CGY finish 11th or 12th last.
They still have good players. Crazier things happen every season.
The most likely outcome is we get the Florida pick in the 22-32 range. But there's probably 25% chance we get a pick in the teens. That possibility exist, it's dumb to simply ignore it ...

There is not. Have you looked at calgarys roster?

The dcore is awful now.
They will either be relying on a 35 year old goalie, or more likely, Vladar and Wolf, which would probably be the worst goaltending group in hockey
They don't have a single star player.
They will almost certainly sell further.

And again, they are actively incentivized to finish in the bottom 10.

If you asked me to name teams with a worse roster than Calgary going into next season, that list would probably be about 2 teams long (Chicago and SJS)

 

[dgibb10]

There's a decent chance CGY finish 11th or 12th last.
They still have good players. Crazier things happen every season.
The most likely outcome is we get the Florida pick in the 22-32 range. But there's probably 25% chance we get a pick in the teens. That possibility exist, it's dumb to simply ignore it ...

I'm going to ask you a question. Any habs fan can answer it.

Pick which one of these rosters has better players. If you answer MTL, never talk about the calgary pick not being top 10 again. If you answer Calgary, might want to vastly pipe down on how you talk about and value your assets.

 

[CanadienShark]

Over the last 3 years the team who's 1sts have been the least valuable are the panthers. 28th,31st,29th-32nd


GMs are not valuing the panthers pick highly

Don't care. You don't get to arbitrarily choose where it lands. Florida is likely going to lose some very important pieces. That pick is not for sale.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I still worry about what direction the Flames will go. I am all for a full rebuild, but is the management?
They have a ton of cap space right now, and if they think they can contend for a WC spot (they thought that in March too) maybe they keep Markstrom, sign a top 6 guy and a top 4 D.
That could get them right around 12th IMO and it would be the stupidest thing we could do.

 

[dgibb10]

Don't care. You don't get to arbitrarily choose where it lands. Florida is likely going to lose some very important pieces. That pick is not for sale.

NHL GMs do in fact use their brains.

They can look at the fact that Florida is one of, if not the best team in hockey, and that the flames have one of the worst rosters in hockey, and value a pick accordingly, which is as a contenders future 1st.

I'd recommend placing some wagers on the flames over and the panthers under on wins. You'll get great odds considering you seem to think Florida is vastly worse than the consensus (they are the best team in the Atlantic and Tampa, Boston are likely headed down, not up), and that Calgary is vastly better than any other fan of any team who has looked at their team or watched them play after losing hanifin and tanev could see.

List of people who think the flames will be anything close to decent: Montreal fans deluding themselves again
List of people who are doubting the panthers, who have finished with a bottom 5 pick in each of the last 3 years: montreal fans deluding themselves again

 

[CanadienShark]

NHL GMs do in fact use their brains.

They can look at the fact that Florida is one of, if not the best team in hockey, and that the flames have one of the worst rosters in hockey, and value a pick accordingly, which is as a contenders future 1st

And you apparently, do not.

 

[dgibb10]

And you apparently, do not.

Name 10 teams that have rosters even close to as bad as this. Because Calgary will be selling, and they will be actively incentivized to finish in the bottom 10.

Tell you what, montreals 2025 unprotected 1st for 16th overall because it could basically finish anywhere

 

[CanadienShark]

View attachment 874974

Name 10 teams that have rosters even close to as bad as this. Because Calgary will be selling, and they will be actively incentivized to finish in the bottom 10.

Tell you what, montreals 2025 unprotected 1st for 16th overall because it could basically finish anywhere

Did you see Philly this year? Do you have a crystal ball into the offseason for Calgary and Florida? No? Ok thanks.

 

[dgibb10]

Did you see Philly this year? Do you have a crystal ball into the offseason for Calgary and Florida? No? Ok thanks.

Great. Montreal 2025 1st for a mid 1st this year, because nobody has a crystal ball who can predict where that pick may end up, so really no point using our brains and valuing future 1sts as anything other than a random number between 1 and 32.

Again, you seem to not understand the fact that Calgary is ACTIVELY INCENTIVIZED to finish bottom 10.

 

[CanadienShark]

Great. Montreal 2025 1st for a mid 1st this year, because nobody has a crystal ball who can predict where that pick may end up, so really no point using our brains and valuing future 1sts as anything other than a random number between 1 and 32.

Again, you seem to not understand the fact that Calgary is ACTIVELY INCENTIVIZED to finish bottom 10.

And Montreal should not trade that pick. Can you wrap your head around that simple concept? Your proposal sucks. Get over it and move on.

 

[dgibb10]

And Montreal should not trade that pick. Can you wrap your head around that simple concept? Your proposal sucks. Get over it and move on.

Canadiens fans managing to be biased about draft picks, not even players or prospects, but draft picks.

Endless comps, very blatant and clear historical values. Valuing picks is not hard.

And again, if it makes you feel better, you can put top 15 protections on it. The buyer isn't going to give a shit. It is a late 1st.

 

[Qwijibo]

Future picks always have lower valuations.

No team is going to highly value a pick from the Florida Panthers.

If we want to get into the specifics:

the draft is normal in the range you are trying to buy.

So normal valuation there.
2025 draft is relatively normal. Normal late 1st valuation there.
2024 later in the 1st is dropped off. Lowered valuation there.

You're right, the model is wrong. It overvalues the Winnipeg pick

Plus the Winnipeg pick got all its points on the powerplay so it's not actually worth a 1st

 

[CanadienShark]

Canadiens fans managing to be biased about draft picks, not even players or prospects, but draft picks.

Endless comps, very blatant and clear historical values. Valuing picks is not hard.

And again, if it makes you feel better, you can put top 15 protections on it. The buyer isn't going to give a shit. It is a late 1st.

If you say so, Mr "I objectively don't understand the meaning of the word objective."

 

[Djp]

Hence why there are 2 other assets involved.

Those are garbage things that dont move thr needle.

Thatd like saying nhl 24 you can 60 3rd rounders for top 3OA pick

 

[Scintillating10]

I think the Habs will draft Demidov at 5. Trade Jets pick and a defense man to move up in draft and select Sennecke. Sign a big name UFA next summer.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Unfortunately, Calgary has this amazing ability to play themselves out of contention by winning games they shouldn't against teams they shouldn't in no win scenarios.

Hoping for a Calgary team to finish drafting top 10 could easily turn in to pick #11 rom the flames as much as say pick 28 from Florida

Calgary will almost certainly be selling next year even if they sitting 11th to 15th at the deadline

I think the Habs will draft Demidov at 5. Trade Jets pick and a defense man to move up in draft and select Sennecke. Sign a big name UFA next summer.

Demidov isn't falling to #5

 

[keppel146]

As a Wild fan, I wouldn’t take the deal. Too far of a drop imo and we need quality over quantity.

Maybe SJ or WSH would take that deal?

 

[Grinner]

As a Wild fan, I wouldn’t take the deal. Too far of a drop imo and we need quality over quantity.

Maybe SJ or WSH would take that deal?

As a Sharks fan, I've made the quality over quantity argument myself. The Sharks already have 4 picks in the top 42 in 2024 and 2 1st round picks in 2025