Value of: Habs moving up using the WPG 2024 1st (#26) + CAL/FLA 2025 1st + MTL 2024 3rd + PIT 2025 2nd

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

He'd get into a fist fight with Steve Simmons by November

 

[dgibb10]

Imagine trading all that and CGY/FLA 2025 1st ends up being an 11th overall pick, in exchange for a 10-15 pick. There's no way CGY/FLA pick is getting traded with the presumption it's a low 1st.

You can put protections on it if you want, but anyone who's taken 1 singular look at Calgary's roster can see that that pick will be florida's.

 

[dumbdick]

How far can Montreal go up from their second 1st rounder this year (WPG #26) using the following package.

1. WPG 2024 1st (#26)
2. CAL/FLA 2025 1st (Top 10 CAL protected, if CAL finishes inside the top 10 pick becomes FLA).
3. MTL 2024 3rd
4. PIT 2025 2nd

Would a team in the top 15 take that package to go down and pick 26?

The sens find your terms acceptable. Enjoy pick #25.

 

[CanadienShark]

It is an estimation of how teams will value it. Future picks are worth less than picks right now. Or do Montreal fans want to pretend it's going to be 11th overall? You're welcome to put some protections on it in that case.

The florida panthers are a powerhouse.


2 late 1sts gets you a middle pick yes, but not into the top 10. Some more value is required there.

Care to explain how it's objective? Because it's not.

You literally made up a number because you mistook 2025 for being 25th overall.

Again, objective? You're objectively wrong.

 

[dgibb10]

Care to explain how it's objective? Because it's not.

You literally made up a number because you mistook 2025 for being 25th overall.

Again, objective? You're objectively wrong.

Sorry let me reword. It is objectively the historical cost of trading for these assets.

Habs fans can delude themselves into thinking they'll get Calgary's pick. NHL gms will value that pick as a late 1st.

 

[CanadienShark]

Sorry let me reword. It is objectively the historical cost of trading for these assets.

Habs fans can delude themselves into thinking they'll get Calgary's pick. NHL gms will value that pick as a late 1st.

Again, you're projecting. But please go on. It's amusing.

 

[dgibb10]

Again, you're projecting. But please go on. It's amusing.

Managing to be biased over the value of draft picks, quite possibly the most set in stone, easy to value asset in hockey (outside of the cost of 3rd party retention).

Incredible.

 

[CanadienShark]

Managing to be biased over the value of draft picks, quite possibly the most set in stone, easy to value asset in hockey (outside of the cost of 3rd party retention).

Incredible.

It's incredible how you think it's that simple. Not all drafts are created equal. In your bad example, the pick for RNH = the pick for McDavid.

 

[dgibb10]

It's incredible how you think it's that simple. Not all drafts are created equal. In your bad example, the pick for RNH = the pick for McDavid.

You're right. This draft is incredibly shallow as you get out of the teens. So the gap between a pick in the top 14 or so, and 26th overall, is in fact LARGER than the models would suggest.

I forgot to consider that in my valuations.

 

[CanadienShark]

You're right. This draft is incredibly shallow as you get out of the teens. So the gap between a pick in the top 14 or so, and 26th overall, is in fact LARGER than the models would suggest.

I forgot to consider that in my valuations.

Want to tell me more about 25th vs 2025?

 

[dgibb10]

Want to tell me more about 25th vs 2025?

Future picks always have lower valuations.

No team is going to highly value a pick from the Florida Panthers.

If we want to get into the specifics:

the draft is normal in the range you are trying to buy.

So normal valuation there.
2025 draft is relatively normal. Normal late 1st valuation there.
2024 later in the 1st is dropped off. Lowered valuation there.

You're right, the model is wrong. It overvalues the Winnipeg pick

 

[CanadienShark]

Future picks always have lower valuations.

No team is going to highly value a pick from the Florida Panthers.

If we want to get into the specifics:

the draft is normal in the range you are trying to buy.

So normal valuation there.
2025 draft is relatively normal. Normal late 1st valuation there.
2024 later in the 1st is dropped off. Lowered valuation there.

You're right, the model is wrong. It overvalues the Winnipeg pick

You're truly ... Something.

Subjectively.

 

[dgibb10]

You're truly ... Something.

Subjectively.

It is a well known fact that the depth in this current draft is bad.

Again, if you want to convince yourself that NHL teams will look at a pick from the florida panthers as valuable, go ahead.

 

[CanadienShark]

It is a well known fact that the depth in this current draft is bad.

Again, if you want to convince yourself that NHL teams will look at a pick from the florida panthers as valuable, go ahead.

I invite you to review the trade conditions for the pick. It helps to know what you're arguing about.

 

[dgibb10]

I invite you to review the trade conditions for the pick. It helps to know what you're arguing about.

Calgary pick top 10
Florida pick not top 10
= montreal gets florida pick

Taking 1 singular look at calgary's roster (not even including the fact that they almost certainly sell even further with guys like Mangiapane, Coleman, Markstrom, Sharangovich, Andersson and Kuzmenko potentially on the way out) tells you that Montreal will be getting florida's pick.

Especially when calgary will be actively incentivized to lose in order to keep their own pick.

Again, Montreal fans if they want can lie to themselves and think it'll be 11th overall in some magical world. But it won't. And no GM is stupid enough to value it as anything other than the future 1st of a contender, which it is.

 

[CanadienShark]

Calgary pick top 10
Florida pick not top 10
= montreal gets florida pick

Taking 1 singular look at calgary's roster (not even including the fact that they almost certainly sell even further with guys like Mangiapane, Coleman, Markstrom, Sharangovich, Andersson and Kuzmenko potentially on the way out) tells you that Montreal will be getting florida's pick.

Especially when calgary will be actively incentivized to lose in order to keep their own pick.

Again, Montreal fans if they want can lie to themselves and think it'll be 11th overall in some magical world. But it won't. And no GM is stupid enough to value it as anything other than the future 1st of a contender, which it is.

Sure, why don't you also call this take objective while you're at it. No one has a clue where Florida's pick lands either.

 

[Habs7631]

Imagine trading all that and CGY/FLA 2025 1st ends up being an 11th overall pick, in exchange for a 10-15 pick. There's no way CGY/FLA pick is getting traded with the presumption it's a low 1st.

I mean yeah, part of what’s supposed to make this package interesting is the small chance for the team that takes this trade that the pick ends up an early teen pick from CAL.

If the pick was 100% FLA no one would bite. There’s gotta be some incentive.

 

[dgibb10]

Sure, why don't you also call this take objective while you're at it. No one has a clue where Florida's pick lands either.

NHL GMs have eyes and brains.

Anyone with a brain can clearly see that Florida is a contender, and that Calgary will be in the dumpster.

You can use the "this pick could be anywhere" logic with the future pick of all 32 teams.

But the reality is, in actual trades, those future picks are almost always valued lower, with the uncertainty favouring the buyer of the future pick.

How often do you see a trade that ends up as a major underpay from consensus value because a pick is later than expected? Virtually never.

You do see the other way around.

If you want to trade the florida pick, you will have to get used to the fact that it is going to be valued as a late 1st.

 

[CanadienShark]

NHL GMs have eyes and brains.

Anyone with a brain can clearly see that Florida is a contender, and that Calgary will be in the dumpster.

You can use the "this pick could be anywhere" logic with the future pick of all 32 teams.

But the reality is, in actual trades, those future picks are almost always valued lower, with the uncertainty favouring the buyer of the future pick.

How often do you see a trade that ends up as a major underpay from consensus value because a pick is later than expected? Virtually never.

You do see the other way around.

If you want to trade the florida pick, you will have to get used to the fact that it is going to be valued as a late 1st.

It's not a pick that should be traded at all.

 

[slybel]

Go broke or go home..... HABS have 4 1st round picks in 24/25 .. package them all, add prospect (D).

Get pick 2 , 3 ?

Get DemiGod and go home!

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

NHL GMs have eyes and brains.

Anyone with a brain can clearly see that Florida is a contender, and that Calgary will be in the dumpster.

You can use the "this pick could be anywhere" logic with the future pick of all 32 teams.

But the reality is, in actual trades, those future picks are almost always valued lower, with the uncertainty favouring the buyer of the future pick.

How often do you see a trade that ends up as a major underpay from consensus value because a pick is later than expected? Virtually never.

You do see the other way around.

If you want to trade the florida pick, you will have to get used to the fact that it is going to be valued as a late 1st.

None of us know what GMs think of that pick but personally i woudlnt trade it its very possible that pick ends up #11/15 or that FLA after losing a few players in the offseason and an injury to a key player in the regular season fall off specially after a long playoff run you think SJ knew they would be giving away 3rd overall in the Karlsson trade?

I have no problem trading the WIN pick + to move up but i rather it play it safe with our Flames pick

 

[jfhabs]

That's objectively what it costs to move up 16 spots. View attachment 874201


If Sam Dickinson is on the board I'm turning it down 100% and picking him.

But the most likely scenario for the '25 pick is between 11 and 28. I wouldn't do it because I think there's a good enough chance for Calgary to end up picking 11-16.

 

[Djp]

Value is fair to get to 10th, NJD may consider depending on who is available when we make the pick.

You'd be looking at that 9th-13th range with that package, depending on how the florida pick is valued.

I'm sure it I'd if you are a MTL fan

Cgy likely is in top 10 , fja pick in mid 20s so 2 mid 20s 1st rounders for s pick around 10 Is not happenin

 

[Scintillating10]

Habs could move back 2, pick up Ottawa second. Draft Ignila at 7. Trade 26+40+ Harris and move up and draft Sennecke

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

How far can Montreal go up from their second 1st rounder this year (WPG #26) using the following package.

1. WPG 2024 1st (#26)
2. CAL/FLA 2025 1st (Top 10 CAL protected, if CAL finishes inside the top 10 pick becomes FLA).
3. MTL 2024 3rd
4. PIT 2025 2nd

Would a team in the top 15 take that package to go down and pick 26?

I would trade 17 for that in a heart beat