Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[Lafleurs Guy]

It absolutely matters. You have a cap window and an age window. The window do have to be coordinated. If the rebuild takes too long the age/cap become to difficult to optimize. It is that simple. The other problem is if you lose too long you have a losing culture. The team needs vets to be competitive and a winning culture. Habs finished 5th from the bottom and three teams below them were trying to lose. Conceptually, you are the 31st worst team.

By and large you can expect it to take five years. That's the plan and it's a smart timeline.

Again though, sometimes it takes longer. It was shorter for Pittsburgh and longer for Tampa. There are simply some things you cannot control. And you shouldn't try to rush it if your team isn't ready. All that does is mess up the rebuild.

 

[JC Superstar]

Just got my hands on a crystal ball and you won't believe what I saw:

• After his 1rst of July 2025 bonus of 5 M. Price will retire, waving his 2 M salary and leaving the Habs with 10,5 M cap space before the season begins;
• Demidov will come to North America and he will be the stuff of legends;
• Freee agents will flock to Montreal and we will pick Marner and Boeser (would have preferred Draisaitl to Marner but the crystal ball is adamant);
• Anderson will be traded for a 2027 3rd round pick;
• the sheriff and the deputy will take care of Laraque's protege when he tries to injure Montembault in the playoffs;
• We won't make it to the final but neither does Rempe.

Should have gone to this antique shop sooner, but on the other hand, if I did I could have seen the 2024-2025 season instead and seeing the team missing the playoffs again would have been tough.

 

[Scintillating10]

KH did not though. You can't judge KH by what was done by the previous management. KH started at the deadline 2022 and more importantly during the draft of 2022. So expecting any result from his management before the 2025-26 season would imo be unreasonable and kind of follish.

He had some pieces in place. Ie. Suzuki, Guhle, Caufield, etc...

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'm amazed by people who think this team isn't worth watching, yet have nothing better to do than post about this "shit" during the summer.

I also don’t get how he says there’s “nothing to look forward to”…

We have one of the deepest and best prospect pools in the league.

 

[LaP]

He had some pieces in place. Ie. Suzuki, Guhle, Caufield, etc...

Not even close to be enough. And all GM starting a rebuild already have some building blocks.

 

[overlords]

He had some pieces in place. Ie. Suzuki, Guhle, Caufield, etc...

 

[Kents polished head]

ITT; People willing to excuse 8 years of being basement dwellers in the name of "rebuilding".

 

[Scriptor]

The key is Dach being healthy and the addition of a top-6 winger, even if it is only a stop gap.

Otherwise, while watching the growth of our prospects will be interesting, icing a one-line offense will ensure a bottom-10 pick, if not a bottom-five pick.

Young D learning on the job, even thought they might be talented, will still bleed enough scoring opportunities against us to offset the offense they might create along the way.

Don't expect this team to be relevant before the contracts of Gallagher and Anderson are off the books and the younger players have truly established themselves as cornerstones or budding cornerstones.

Even Demidov here after this next season, if it actually happens, won't move the needle enough on offense, IMO. It will take at least three years (one without Demidov and two where he has played at the NHL level, for him to start carrying the offense, if we're being realistic.

The 2027-2028 season should be exciting for Hab fans, with Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky established as young veterans up front, Demidov in his third season and Hughes likely having grafted another top-6 talent, plus depth the bottom-six that can score and other youngsters moving up through the system.

If Fowler pans out and Mount Mambo hangs around as a competent veteran backup on unaffordable deal, we should be looking good.

The quality offer D-Corps will counter a lot by then and they will all be closer to being veterans than rookies.

 

[Nedved]

Bottom 5 with a top 6 injury, bottom 12 if we're healthy.

When Dach was healthy, we were too talented to be bottom 5, add a few young guys stepping in, and the maturity of the top 6 guys, I don't see us in the bottom 5, if healthy.

This team is headed in the right direction. I would love bottom 5 but I don't see it this year.

 

[TesseractPrice]

This post is complete bullshit.

The Senators aren't even at year 8 and you (among others) are always talking about how bad they are and how they didn't work. Rightfully so.

If someone can point to me to a 5+ year rebuild that was successful, I'm all ears. Not even purposeful tankers like Pittsburgh and Washington rebuilt for that long.

What a crock of shit you've just spewed. Most current contenders didn't even go through traditional rebuilds at all.

The Panthers, Lightning and Avalanche?

The first one is easy, they got Gudbranson 3OA, Huberdeau 3OA, Barkov 2OA, Ekblad 1OA, Crouse 11OA, Tippett 10 OA and, at the end of the rebuild, Denisenko 15. That's 4 top 3 picks, plus two other low tens. Notice how several of them flopped hard? It took them 7/8 years before being a consistent playoff contender, then contender, then cup winner

Bolts: Stamkos (1OA), Hedman (2OA), Connolly (6OA), Koekkoek (10OA), Vasilevskiy (19 OA, they had two pick that year), Drouin (3OA). The Bolts had a rollercoaster rebuilt, but it ultimately took around 6/7 years to be a consistent threat

Colorado: Duchene (3OA), Landeskog (2OA), MacKinnon (1OA), Rantanen (10OA), Jost (10 OA), Makar (4OA). The Avs rebuild took 9 years before being a consistent playoff threat

All three team also hit the Jackpot on some top 5 picks (Barkov, Hedman, MacKinnon, Makar). All three of these might be called golden standards of rebuilding around this website

 

[Spring in Fialta]

The Panthers, Lightning and Avalanche?

The first one is easy, they got Gudbranson 3OA, Huberdeau 3OA, Barkov 2OA, Ekblad 1OA, Crouse 11OA, Tippett 10 OA and, at the end of the rebuild, Denisenko 15. That's 4 top 3 picks, plus two other low tens. Notice how several of them flopped hard? It took them 7/8 years before being a consistent playoff contender, then contender, then cup winner

Bolts: Stamkos (1OA), Hedman (2OA), Connolly (6OA), Koekkoek (10OA), Vasilevskiy (19 OA, they had two pick that year), Drouin (3OA). The Bolts had a rollercoaster rebuilt, but it ultimately took around 6/7 years to be a consistent threat

Colorado: Duchene (3OA), Landeskog (2OA), MacKinnon (1OA), Rantanen (10OA), Jost (10 OA), Makar (4OA). The Avs rebuild took 9 years before being a consistent playoff threat

All three team also hit the Jackpot on some top 5 picks (Barkov, Hedman, MacKinnon, Makar). All three of these might be called golden standards of rebuilding around this website

This only works if the sole definition of a rebuild is 'You ended up drafting high' which to me is a vary fallacious way of describing what a rebuild is and what the Habs are actually doing.

In my opinion, Tampa Bay never rebuilt. They kept every productive veteran they had. The few they shipped out was to compete now (i.e. trading Brad Richards for Mike Smith). None of this related to what we did.

Same with the Panthers. All these years they were actively acquiring veterans (like Jagr, Grabner, Samsonov, Jovanovski, Theodore, Brian Campbell, re-acquiring Luongo) to try and make the playoffs. They really took that massive leap when they just started making crazy good trades for guys like Reinhart and Tkachuk.

Colorado kind and sorta did what we're doing but they were also acquiring veterans. Albeit I'd put them down as a more traditional build than Florida or Tampa ever have been.

In short, it seems like everyone just looks at high picks and goes 'They tanked and rebuilt like we're doing!!!!!!!!!!!' without actually looking at what those teams actually...did.

If someone doesn't want to acknowledge nuance, by all means. But it makes their argument really, really shallow.

 

[WeThreeKings]

ITT; child being mad mommy didn't buy him an overpriced toy at the fair.

 

[BLONG7]

Well, if Dach can play a full season and contribute 50 points as a center it will help the production of others. If Caufield gets 35-40 goals as many expect he will, that too will give us a boost. These are all ifs and not certain.

A bit more structured play in our zone would help keep the goals against in check, everyone seems to be very disorganized which leads to needless mistakes that end up in our net all too often. They need to work on improving in that area.

We need to stop playing man to man in our own zone. Just awful results.
Have we a real Dman who runs our defensive squad yet? We need better Asst coaches to help MSL.

Speaking of MSL, he needs to better as does our entire roster.......but I do think we will see some progress as long as we stay healthy. ( Dach for sure )

 

[TesseractPrice]

This only works if the sole definition of a rebuild is 'You ended up drafting high' which to me is a vary fallacious way of describing what a rebuild is and what the Habs are actually doing.

In my opinion, Tampa Bay never rebuilt. They kept every productive veteran they had. The few they shipped out was to compete now (i.e. trading Brad Richards for Mike Smith). None of this related to what we did.

Same with the Panthers. All these years they were actively acquiring veterans (like Jagr, Grabner, Samsonov, Jovanovski, Theodore, Brian Campbell, re-acquiring Luongo) to try and make the playoffs. They really took that massive leap when they just started making crazy good trades for guys like Reinhart and Tkachuk.

Colorado kind and sorta did what we're doing but they were also acquiring veterans. Albeit I'd put them down as a more traditional build than Florida or Tampa ever have been.

In short, it seems like everyone just looks at high picks and goes 'They tanked and rebuilt like we're doing!!!!!!!!!!!' without actually looking at what those teams actually...did.

If someone doesn't want to acknowledge nuance, by all means. But it makes their argument really, really shallow.

You're romanticizing it a bit. The Panthers had a lot of ups and downs and stretched their rebuild because they couldn't afford to ice terrible teams for too long and went through several GMs. There wasn't as much a plan as fear of relocation at times

Colorado went on to add vets after good seasons by their rookies and they also went through several GMs

On to your previous point about adding vets, the Habs did add some, just not this offseason. Matheson and Monahan last year do fit this description

Hughes/Gorton either decided this UFA crop wasn't worth it or failed at getting their UFA targets at their target term. They might also still be looking for a trade. They might judge that the foundation of this team is strong enough for their current aspirations and that the players available internally are better than what was available

 

[Sorinth]

With Dach as the only significant roster change I just don't see the expectations for improved goals against. Organic growth for third pairing defensemen?

There's plenty of reasons why we might see more goals with mostly the same roster.

For example one of them is that the combined goal scoring pace of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky improved by 20 goals per 82 games after being put together.

So without any improvement that top line already nets us more goals just by being together the whole season vs only half of one.

 

[WeThreeKings]

You're romanticizing it a bit. The Panthers had a lot of ups and downs and stretched their rebuild because they couldn't afford to ice terrible teams for too long and went through several GMs. There wasn't as much a plan as fear of relocation at times

Colorado went on to add vets after good seasons by their rookies and they also went through several GMs

On to your previous point about adding vets, the Habs did add some, just not this offseason. Matheson and Monahan last year do fit this description

Hughes/Gorton either decided this UFA crop wasn't worth it or failed at getting their UFA targets at their target term. They might also still be looking for a trade. They might judge that the foundation of this team is strong enough for their current aspirations and that the players available internally are better than what was available

It's pretty obvious that this was a mid free agency class and that to get deals done you needed to pay in term. Hughes and Gorton had a plan and decided the limit of term would be 2-3 years and I'm glad we have adults in the room who know when they need to walk away from a player because the money/term will become problematic.

If we had someone like that previously, we wouldn't be saddled with contracts like Gallagher because they would have moved him at the peak of his value rather than re-sign him to pay him for what he did, not what he will be.

What is baffling to me is that, in general, this is a smart fan base, yet they seem to be completely unable to understand that throwing money and term around on window-dressing this year is a bad idea especially when we are close to finally getting out from under the financial hamstringing done by Bergevin.

Hughes said they didn't want to block the future of the organization with long term FA contracts.. it's one thing if Sam Reinhart was out there, but going long term on the Debrusk and Marchessault of the world is just insanity.

It's just FOMO, every year people want the Habs to do something, it doesn't even have to be good, it just has to be something.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

You're romanticizing it a bit. The Panthers had a lot of ups and downs and stretched their rebuild because they couldn't afford to ice terrible teams for too long and went through several GMs. There wasn't as much a plan as fear of relocation at times

Colorado went on to add vets after good seasons by their rookies and they also went through several GMs

On to your previous point about adding vets, the Habs did add some, just not this offseason. Matheson and Monahan last year do fit this description

Hughes/Gorton either decided this UFA crop wasn't worth it or failed at getting their UFA targets at their target term. They might also still be looking for a trade. They might judge that the foundation of this team is strong enough for their current aspirations and that the players available internally are better than what was available

Well, that's exactly my point right? Those aren't really rebuilds if you can't afford to ice terrible teams for too long and are going through several GMs. There's no cohesive vision like you're seeing here under HuGo. And it goes further into my point - traditional rebuilds as we think of them (i.e. us) can work but a lot of teams also win without going through them. It takes a lot more than just high picks.

I really like what HuGo have done (acquiring 1sts trading them for younger players you think are undervalued by other clubs, taking on Monahan for a 1st, etc.). I do think our young veterans deserved and could have used some help (hopefully this gets done by trade) because I think Suzuki and Caufield staring down at a fourth season of tons of losses isn't a good idea but we will see. Just because I'm a fan of management doesn't mean I need to co-sign everything they do. I don't believe in honeymoons.

 

[JoelWarlord]

ITT; People willing to excuse 8 years of being basement dwellers in the name of "rebuilding".

What does 8 years ago have to do with what we should do now? Price, Weber, Danault, Kotkaniemi, and Tatar all left the team in one offseason and Petry + Gallagher both became washed up between 20-21 and 21-22. All we have to show for those guys is Dvorak and Matheson. Slafkovsky is the first player we got from this run of tanking and he's just 20 years old. It's not like we picked high in 2019/20/21 either. A huge part of why we're in this situation right now is precisely because Bergevin saw the writing on the wall with Price/Weber and didn't want to be a basement dweller in 21-22 so he committed money and term to Anderson, Gallagher, Savard, Armia, Hoffman, and Dvorak.

You can't just snap your fingers and replace those kinds of players. There was no 16-17 Weber, Markov, Price, or prime Gallagher that we could have just signed for market value as UFAs. We can't go back in time and retroactively trade those guys for players who would be contributing today or change all our picks from 2010-2017 so we have good veterans around right now. We just don't, there is basically nothing left in the system from before the 2018 draft so we're completely bereft of good players in their primes, Suzuki and Matheson are the only good players on the roster over 23.

 

[TesseractPrice]

Well, that's exactly my point right? Those aren't really rebuilds if you can't afford to ice terrible teams for too long and are going through several GMs. There's no cohesive vision like you're seeing here under HuGo. And it goes further into my point - traditional rebuilds as we think of them (i.e. us) can work but a lot of teams also win without going through them. It takes a lot more than just high picks.

I really like what HuGo have done (acquiring 1sts trading them for younger players you think are undervalued by other clubs, taking on Monahan for a 1st, etc.). I do think our young veterans deserved and could have used some help (hopefully this gets done by trade) because I think Suzuki and Caufield staring down at a fourth season of tons of losses isn't a good idea but we will see. Just because I'm a fan of management doesn't mean I need to co-sign everything they do. I don't believe in honeymoons.

There are no perfect theoretical rebuilds. I can't legit think of one. The owners will always meddle. The Habs will keep going according to the plan as long as they don't overperform one year (or crumble spectacularly). If Dach wasn't injured this year, if they kept Monahan and if made the playoffs, the Habs would have probably been buyers this offseason. As soon as the owners taste the playoff money, the rebuild gets fast tracked

Slightly off-topic, but there weren't a lot of available forwards UFAs that weren't highly suspect in their zones. Lindholm, Debrusk, Marchessault and that's it? The Habs can't shelter PP specialists on their roster. Some signings would have made the team worse. Sprong would

 

[LaP]

I don't get why we are even discussing guys like Daniel Sprong. Sprong is a leecher. He'll get points if you give him TOI but he wont help your team wins games. He played for 5 different teams in career and was iced in playoffs only twice in 9 years. He wont help our team wins more games and we don't want him around the kids anyway.

What we must do is like Florida and Colorado and go for guys like Burakovski/Nichuskin/Lehkonen and Bennett/Reinhart/Forsling. Guys who are still young and could become something with more TOI and a better env. I'm fine with taking a gamble on Laine or Kakko. Don't want to have anything to do with some journeymen UFA.

 

[OldCraig71]

We need to stop playing man to man in our own zone. Just awful results.
Have we a real Dman who runs our defensive squad yet? We need better Asst coaches to help MSL.

Speaking of MSL, he needs to better as does our entire roster.......but I do think we will see some progress as long as we stay healthy. ( Dach for sure )

The goal was to tank and rebuild so maybe they can play a much tighter game but for now, they are content to stockpile high draft picks and finish low in the standings, who knows? One encouraging sign that we are headed in the right direction was our ability to stay in games against some good teams.

The man-on-man only works if everyone executes and they have trouble in that area. They look confused most of the time.

 

[Tanknation]

I have no problem being bottom 5 again , in fact I would love it

Yes! Be nice to be dead last to be honest. Can't rush a rebuild. Colorado, Washington, Chicago, Edmonton, Florida, Tampa, Pens etc. Did not become cup winners and or contenders on a 2-3 year rebuild. It sucks, but we all have to be patient.

 

[Scintillating10]

Not even close to be enough. And all GM starting a rebuild already have some building blocks.

Never said enough. Said a start. Those 3 good players. Cupboards was far from bare. By '26 we should be playoff team.

 

[Gaud]

I am more optimistic i guess.. I see Mtl progresses and is 10th to 12th in the conference at the end of the season. 85-87 ish points

 

[Essenege]

There’s so much potential for organic improvement. Growth is non linear but sometime it also surprises to the upside.

We were a 46% team in 5v5 possession stats not 40%. We don’t need a massive improvement to be in the bubble.

I’m not expecting it but there is enough uncertainty with this team to hope for it.