Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[Lafleurs Guy]

I did the math and it's 5-8 years so if anyone wants to panty twist about it, they can, but they're wrong.

I edited my post while you made this. It took Tampa a long time.

You can’t just assume it will be X number of years. You could wind up luckier by landing an unexpected superstar- Kucherov for example - or you could experience injuries that screw everything up.

It will take what it takes. But five years is a good goal.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I did the math and it's 5-8 years so if anyone wants to panty twist about it, they can, but they're wrong.

Show your work.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

What do you mean who cares?

It means what it means.

Context clearly matters if someone is going to say 'people who expected something don't understand how rebuild works'.

At the end of the day, Chicago’s moves did nothing other to ensure higher picks. Whether they meant to do that or not doesn’t matter. It’s still an example of a rebuilding team amassing top picks to build with.

If you're going to use Chicago as an example, pointing out they actively acquired expensive veterans while rebuilding
(which WTK is saying you shouldn't do in a rebuild and people don't understand how a rebuild works if they want that) is CLEARLY something that should be pointed out.

By all means, add vets. I wouldn’t do it in general but they have their place.

At the end of the day though, what matters is amassing top prospects. Those usually happen at the top of the draft. That’s what Chicago did.

Also, a team like LA largely got their cups specifically by trading their prospects for veteran players in Richards and Carter.

You can trade for vets down the line. THAT makes sense. But they already had a great group of young players by that point.

 

[ReimanSum1908]

Rebuilds take time. I'd rather have a top 5 pick again than just make it into the first round and lose easily.

It would be folly to torpedo a generally effective rebuild when it's so close to being concluded. We have two more years of top ten picks before we're naturally fighting for a playoff spot, and that's a very good thing because we're still missing a top line forward and a prospective number one defenseman.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It would be folly to torpedo a generally effective rebuild when it's so close to being concluded. We have two more years of top ten picks before we're naturally fighting for a playoff spot, and that's a very good thing because we're still missing a top line forward and a prospective number one defenseman.

I’ve said this for years - a rebuild takes what it takes. You’ll know it’s over when your team starts to consistently win. In the meantime, hang onto to your prospects, keep drafting high…

I don’t think we’re going to intentionally tank this year but it absolutely could happen. Our D is still super green. We could run into injuries again… and if it does, so what? I didn’t have us as a playoff team anyway.

What I’m hoping for is a healthy year for everyone and a season where our kids get lots of ice time. We can re-evaluate when the season is over. For now though, this is still a developing team.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm surprised so many people wanted to acquire more poison pills in free agency. For what? The red wings have intentionally placed land mines in the way of their future by doing what they've been doing. I'm glad we didn't overpay in cash or term for the uninspiring options in this free agency, especially as we wait out the trash Bergevin put in place by doing just that, being frivolous with cash and term to players who aren't key pieces.

 

[Whitesnake]

Fine with me. Great year to finish bottom 5 yet again. Acquire more pieces to trade at the deadline as well.

 

[LaP]

I'm surprised so many people wanted to acquire more poison pills in free agency. For what? The red wings have intentionally placed land mines in the way of their future by doing what they've been doing. I'm glad we didn't overpay in cash or term for the uninspiring options in this free agency, especially as we wait out the trash Bergevin put in place by doing just that, being frivolous with cash and term to players who aren't key pieces.

The more surprinsing one is Daniel Sprong like WTF. If i had to make a list of vets i don't want around our kids Sprong would be in it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The more surprinsing one is Daniel Sprong like WTF. If i had to make a list of vets i don't want around our kids Sprong would be in it.

We have so many kids vying for spots. I don’t get why people keep arguing for a top sixer when we can just put Roy there. And Demidov’s on the way too.

If Dach goes down again… different story. But why do we need to add vets now? I don’t get it.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Point me to a rebuild that was done in less than 3 years?

Pens : rebuild started in 2003 with Marc-André Fleury drafted 1st overall and they made the playoffs for the first time in 2006-2007. Took them 4 years to make the playoffs and they were booted out of them in 5 games.

Caps : drafted Ovy in 2004 and made the playoffs for the 1st time in 2007-2008 booted out in the first round like the pens. Again 4 years just to make the playoffs. More for a deep run.

We drafted Slaf in 2022 so to be at the same pace as the pens and caps we would need to make the playoffs in 2025-2026 (not this year but next) and be booted out in the 1st round which is not impossible at all.

People still mix MB and KH and act like if it was the same management. JK is not here anymore (and we lost draft power to replace him by Dvorak) and Mailloux was a 31st overall pick. The rebuild started with Slaf in 2022 whatever it fits some fans narrative or not. Expecting a rebuild to be done in only 3 drafts and only 2 seasons is stupid af and 120% unrealistic.

Pittsburgh bottomed out in '02-'03 and were actively signing veteran players (Recchi, Leclair, Gonchar - who was still around for the Cup run - Palffy, etc.) by 2005. Washington bottomed out in '03 and were done by '07-'08.

The point being is this: It's silly for someone to say 'Rebuilds take 5-8 years and if you think teams acquire veterans in year 3, you don't understand rebuilds' when there are numerous examples of teams doing exactly that. Jesus, I think Colorado acquired Jarome Iginla the same summer they got MacKinnon. It's just not true and if we're going to talk about what rebuilds actually look like, the details matter.

It means what it means.

At the end of the day, Chicago’s moves did nothing other to ensure higher picks. Whether they meant to do that or not doesn’t matter. It’s still an example of a rebuilding team amassing top picks to build with.

By all means, add vets. I wouldn’t do it in general but they have their place.

At the end of the day though, what matters is amassing top prospects. Those usually happen at the top of the draft. That’s what Chicago did.

You can trade for vets down the line. THAT makes sense. But they already had a great group of young players by that point.

If we're going to be specific about what rebuilds look like (as WTK was doing) the details of how those teams actually went about it matters.

It's not logically consistent for him to make the statement he made, pointing out numerous contradictory examples and then saying 'Who cares?'

Well, no, he's wrong. It's important to point that out if he's going to say others are wrong for moves that have happened in the context of numerous rebuilds.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Pittsburgh bottomed out in '02-'03 and were actively signing veteran players (Recchi, Leclair, Gonchar - who was still around for the Cup run - Palffy, etc.) by 2005. Washington bottomed out in '03 and were done by '07-'08.

The point being is this: It's silly for someone to say 'Rebuilds take 5-8 years and if you think teams acquire veterans in year 3, you don't understand rebuilds' when there are numerous examples of teams doing exactly that. Jesus, I think Colorado acquired Jarome Iginla the same summer they got MacKinnon. It's just not true and if we're going to talk about what rebuilds actually look like, the details matter.



If we're going to be specific about what rebuilds look like (as WTK was doing) the details of how those teams actually went about it matters.

It's not logically consistent for him to make the statement he made, pointing out numerous contradictory examples and then saying 'Who cares?'

Well, no, he's wrong. It's important to point that out if he's going to say others are wrong for moves that have happened in the context of numerous rebuilds.

This isn't a new argument. I used to have it back when I joined here a thousand years ago before those teams won anything. And I was pretty alone on this. A lot of times it was Lafleurs Guy vs the forum. I'd tell people that they were rebuilding clubs with high picks who'd likely be successful down the road. Then they'd come back with... 'but what about all these trades for vets' and I'd say they were a mistake. That those teams were successful in spite of those moves, not because of them. Sure enough, they'd add a vet and still finish low getting more high picks. And ALL those teams we were arguing about went on to win a cup. Washington was the only one to not win multiple cups.

This is why I say 'I don't care.' You can make wrong moves and still be rebuilding. You can try to avoid rebuilding and still rebuild. As long as you don't pull a Mike Milbury who trades away picks/prospects, you'll still be okay if you're drafting high. Because at the end of the day, as long as you're stockpiling those prospects, you have a much higher chance of success. It's NOT a guarantee. You're not guaranteed the playoffs, let alone a cup. But almost all cup winners are the result of rebuilding. Almost all of them have homegrown drafted high picks or players that were traded for as prospects leading the way. That's the best way to build a winner. And it's why I've long advocated that you delay adding vets until later. It makes sense to do it when you're starting to contend. At that point you can trade younger players/picks/prospects. It makes sense to do it if you think a vet is the final piece. But if you do it too early you're wasting your time. Vets have their place, they can be leaders and 'show the way' if they've won cups. But the foundation of your team should be the prospects you're building with. That's the best path towards success. it's been shown time and again. What I love specifically here is that we've avoided adding vets. We've focused almost entirely on adding prospects and that's going to pay off big time. An intentional rebuild yields so much more.

I'm glad to see we've finally chosen this path AND are seeing it through. It's not a bunch of lip service like we saw last time. I love the idea of all these young players coming together to form the nucleus of a future club. To me this future roster looks great:

(Put this in whatever order you want)
Slaf Nick CC
Roy Dach Demidov
Newhook Beck Hage
Xejac Evans Vet

Hutson RB
Guhle Mailloux
Xejac Savard

Fowler/Montie/Primeau

That's a great young roster to build with. Will it work out exactly like this? Almost certainly no. Hage's a center for example. But the foundation is there. Maybe Dach gets hurt and Hage takes the 2nd line center. Or Beck surprises and moves up... lots of things can happen. We'll have injuries, some players will exceed expectations and others will disapoint. But ALL these guys deserve a chance to show what they can do. We owe it to ourselves to give them that opportunity. And that takes time and patience.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

This isn't a new argument. I used to have it back when I joined here a thousand years ago before those teams won anything. I'd tell people that they were rebuilding clubs with high picks who'd likely be successful down the road. Then they'd come back with... 'but what about all these trades for vets' and I'd say they were a mistake. That those teams were successful in spite of those moves, not because of them. Sure enough, they'd add a vet and still finish low getting more high picks.

This is why I say 'I don't care.' Because at the end of the day, as long as you're stockpiling those prospects, you have a much higher chance of success. It's NOT a guarantee. You're not guaranteed the playoffs, let alone a cup. But almost all cup winners are the result of rebuilding. Almost all of them have homegrown drafted high picks or players that were traded for as prospects leading the way. That's the best way to build a winner. And it's why I've long advocated that you delay adding vets until later. It makes sense to do it when you're starting to contend. At that point you can trade younger players/picks/prospects. It makes sense to do it if you think a vet is the final piece. But if you do it too early you're wasting your time. Vets have their place, they can be leaders and 'show the way' if they've won cups. But the foundation of your team should be the prospects you're building with. That's the best path towards success. it's been shown time and again.

I'm glad to see we've finally chosen this path AND are seeing it through. It's not a bunch of lip service like we saw last time. I love the idea of all these young players coming together to form the nucleus of a future club. To me this future roster looks great:

(Put this in whatever order you want)
Slaf Nick CC
Roy Dach Demidov
Newhook Beck Hage
Xejac Evans Vet

Hutson RB
Guhle Mailloux
Xejac Savard

Fowler/Montie/Primeau

That's a great young roster to build with. Will it work out exactly like this? Almost certainly no. Hage's a center for example. But the foundation is there. Maybe Dach gets hurt and Hage takes the 2nd line center. Or Beck surprises and moves up... lots of things can happen. We'll have injuries, some players will exceed expectations and others will disapoint. But ALL these guys deserve a chance to show what they can do. We owe it to ourselves to give them that opportunity. And that takes time and patience.

We're so far out that pretty much every single team in the league (bad or good) will have high picks that they made themselves on them. It's not really an argument. 'Good teams have good players that came from high picks'

Well, yeah. That doesn't mean that they rebuilt. I don't care if Tampa got Stamkos and Hedman 1st and 2nd overall. They didn't rebuild at all. They kept every single veteran they had. In fact, the only move for futures they ever made IIRC was trading Vinny Prospal one year at the deadline. They re-signed him that summer to a 4-year contract. I was living in Orlando at the time and they were a secondary team to follow.

Even a team like Pittsburgh. Most of the vets that they acquired didn't work out while rebuilding. But one did. Sergei Gonchar. And he was a massive piece to their first cup.

My point is that there are multiple ways to get to a Cup, as shown by how the different winners have been constructed. And that's why I took issue with WTF's post. He pretends there's a real proven formula to this and then calls you wrong if you don't agree - there isn't. Team-building involves a lot of different parts and a lot of luck, at the draft or otherwise. Just pointing at high picks isn't it.

 

[BLONG7]

I’ve said this for years - a rebuild takes what it takes. You’ll know it’s over when your team starts to consistently win. In the meantime, hang onto to your prospects, keep drafting high…

I don’t think we’re going to intentionally tank this year but it absolutely could happen. Our D is still super green. We could run into injuries again… and if it does, so what? I didn’t have us as a playoff team anyway.

What I’m hoping for is a healthy year for everyone and a season where our kids get lots of ice time. We can re-evaluate when the season is over. For now though, this is still a developing team.

There is a reason why people say............patience is a virtue.
Never has been easy for habs fans.
This process seems to be working very well.
Stay the course guys.

 

[OldCraig71]

We need to cut our goals against down because we were second worst in the Eastern Conference and 5th worst in the entire league in that area. We were also 5th worst in the league at scoring goals so based on that, we don't have a lot going for us lol.

We didn't add anyone to help us with the goal scoring and we also lost Monahan's 13 goals. This year might see us finish even lower in the standings unless we have a healthy roster and some improved performances from everyone on the team. The prediction might be accurate.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We're so far out that pretty much every single team in the league (bad or good) will have high picks that they made themselves on them. It's not really an argument. 'Good teams have good players that came from high picks'

Well, yeah. That doesn't mean that they rebuilt. I don't care if Tampa got Stamkos and Hedman 1st and 2nd overall. They didn't rebuild at all. They kept every single veteran they had. In fact, the only move for futures they ever made IIRC was trading Vinny Prospal one year at the deadline. They re-signed him that summer to a 4-year contract. I was living in Orlando at the time and they were a secondary team to follow.

Even a team like Pittsburgh. Most of the vets that they acquired didn't work out while rebuilding. But one did. Sergei Gonchar. And he was a massive piece to their first cup.

My point is that there are multiple ways to get to a Cup, as shown by how the different winners have been constructed. And that's why I took issue with WTF's post. He pretends there's a real proven formula to this - there isn't. Team-building involves a lot of different parts and a lot of luck, at the draft or otherwise. Just pointing at high picks isn't it.

ALL those teams had sustained high picks. They weren't one offs.

You know who didn't? Us. We had Carey Price. The first top five pick in over 20 years. And that guy made us a first place club. He got a sad sack team to the finals. And we shoudln't have even had him. We got him in a fluke one time lottery.

Then we managed to get another in 2013 and promptly f***ed that up with horrible development. Ditto for 2017. Three top five picks spanned over 12 years is not rebuilding. But if we'd rebuilt properly with Price and Subban, we'd have won a cup. I'll go to my grave believing that.

Anyways, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA, Tampa... all spent sustained time at the bottom. All but one won mutliple cups. It's a clear path towards success to do it this way.

Doesn't guarantee you a cup. Oilers haven't won yet. Ottawa had a near perfect club and they didn't win (also got totally screwed by the cap coming in when it did.) I won't say it guarantees us one. But I will tell you that I'm far more optimistic about our club than I've been in a long time. We don't have Carey Price but we have a ton of young players who could turn out to be stars. That's the kind of depth we haven't had in eons.

I'm very happy to be included in the group where Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Tampa were back then. Now it's Montreal, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago. Give it time, those teams will have a leg up on others in the coming years.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We need to cut our goals against down because we were second worst in the Eastern Conference and 5th worst in the entire league in that area. We were also 5th worst in the league at scoring goals so based on that, we don't have a lot going for us lol.

Unfortnately, I don't see it changing this year. If anything, our D will be even greener than it was.

We didn't add anyone to help us with the goal scoring and we also lost Monahan's 13 goals. This year might see us finish even lower in the standings unless we have a healthy roster and some improved performances from everyone on the team. The prediction might be accurate.

I disagree with this. We're adding Hutson, Dach and Roy. Those are big additions and I think we'll see more goals for this year. Not enough to offset the goals against but we should be able to put the puck in the net. Two good lines will make a big difference as will Hutson, esp on the PP.

 

[26Mats]

I'm surprised so many people wanted to acquire more poison pills in free agency. For what? The red wings have intentionally placed land mines in the way of their future by doing what they've been doing. I'm glad we didn't overpay in cash or term for the uninspiring options in this free agency, especially as we wait out the trash Bergevin put in place by doing just that, being frivolous with cash and term to players who aren't key pieces.

I would have liked to have seen Dach play with a Marchesssult or even Duclair.

But hopefully Armia, Dvo, and Anderson can use the ice time to get their trade values up. Definitely reasonable to hope for 2nds for Armia and Dvo. Anderson just has no get out of the negative without retention. It could happen.

 

[HuGort]

Point me to a rebuild that was done in less than 3 years?

Pens : rebuild started in 2003 with Marc-André Fleury drafted 1st overall and they made the playoffs for the first time in 2006-2007. Took them 4 years to make the playoffs and they were booted out of them in 5 games.

Caps : drafted Ovy in 2004 and made the playoffs for the 1st time in 2007-2008 booted out in the first round like the pens. Again 4 years just to make the playoffs. More for a deep run.

We drafted Slaf in 2022 so to be at the same pace as the pens and caps we would need to make the playoffs in 2025-2026 (not this year but next) and be booted out in the 1st round which is not impossible at all.

People still mix MB and KH and act like if it was the same management. JK is not here anymore (and we lost draft power to replace him by Dvorak) and Mailloux was a 31st overall pick. The rebuild started with Slaf in 2022 whatever it fits some fans narrative or not. Expecting a rebuild to be done in only 3 drafts and only 2 seasons is stupid af and 120% unrealistic.

Takes 5 terrible years. We affectively started when lost Price and Weber. Be 2026 before we decent team.

 

[Guy Larose]

So this is the new tank thread, uh?

 

[LaP]

Takes 5 terrible years. We affectively started when lost Price and Weber.

KH did not though. You can't judge KH by what was done by the previous management. KH started at the deadline 2022 and more importantly during the draft of 2022. So expecting any result from his management before the 2025-26 season would imo be unreasonable and kind of follish.

 

[McGees]

Last year was the last bottom 5...will see marginal improvements next year then 2025/26, Demidov comes over, Reinbacher joins, some plugs leave finally and big UFA signing (CROSBY ANYONE??) and then we will be in playoff discussion.

 

[OldCraig71]

Unfortnately, I don't see it changing this year. If anything, our D will be even greener than it was.

I disagree with this. We're adding Hutson, Dach and Roy. Those are big additions and I think we'll see more goals for this year. Not enough to offset the goals against but we should be able to put the puck in the net. Two good lines will make a big difference as will Hutson, esp on the PP.

Well, if Dach can play a full season and contribute 50 points as a center it will help the production of others. If Caufield gets 35-40 goals as many expect he will, that too will give us a boost. These are all ifs and not certain.

A bit more structured play in our zone would help keep the goals against in check, everyone seems to be very disorganized which leads to needless mistakes that end up in our net all too often. They need to work on improving in that area.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Well, if Dach can play a full season and contribute 50 points as a center it will help the production of others. If Caufield gets 35-40 goals as many expect he will, that too will give us a boost. These are all ifs and not certain.

A bit more structured play in our zone would help keep the goals against in check, everyone seems to be very disorganized which leads to needless mistakes that end up in our net all too often. They need to work on improving in that area.

More than anything, I think Hutson will greatly help the PP. That alone should be a shot in the arm. I also think Roy has a good rookie year. I'm excited to watch. Even if we lose, I think we're going to be fun team to tune into.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

I’ve said this for years - a rebuild takes what it takes. You’ll know it’s over when your team starts to consistently win. In the meantime, hang onto to your prospects, keep drafting high…

I don’t think we’re going to intentionally tank this year but it absolutely could happen. Our D is still super green. We could run into injuries again… and if it does, so what? I didn’t have us as a playoff team anyway.

What I’m hoping for is a healthy year for everyone and a season where our kids get lots of ice time. We can re-evaluate when the season is over. For now though, this is still a developing team.

It absolutely matters. You have a cap window and an age window. The window do have to be coordinated. If the rebuild takes too long the age/cap become to difficult to optimize. It is that simple. The other problem is if you lose too long you have a losing culture. The team needs vets to be competitive and a winning culture. Habs finished 5th from the bottom and three teams below them were trying to lose. Conceptually, you are the 31st worst team.

 

[Andrei79]

I'm amazed by how many people here actually have nothing better to do in the evening than watch a bad hockey team lose hockey games.

There's literally no chance I waste my time watching any more than one game a week of that shit.

Literally nothing to look forward to and what's even worse is the amount of fans who got complacent about it and even go great lengths making themselves believe sitting on your hands and doing nothing all summer is somehow a masterclass of management.

This is a horrible hockey team. Top to bottom. We're a one line team one injury away from being favorites to get the 1st overall pick. 4 years into the rebuild.

I'm amazed by people who think this team isn't worth watching, yet have nothing better to do than post about this "shit" during the summer.