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GDT: Habs at Leafs (Now, Monday)

RationalExpectations

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May 12, 2019
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salbutera said:
Making all evaluations based on stat watching can be misleading - Anderson’s game is based on the combination effect of high end speed for such a large body in a transition game + ability to deliver 20G+

How many other players in the NHL have that combined ability w equivalent cap hit or less?

So no, Anderson is not overrated…. myopic stat watchers are misguided
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What does it change to be 6´4 rather than 5´10 if you can t play a whole season, or make your linemates better ? He skates fast for his size, great, but he does not really use it in a punishing way, he is not very good defensively (nothing with stat watching).
 
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Habs Halifax

Habs Halifax

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schwang26 said:
Things might look grim now and im not hopefultonight, but I'm sure we'll see career years from a lot of guys. I'm still predicting a 10th last finish, but that's a pretty good jump from 5th last.
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Reasonable. I think what matters the most this season is the momentum they gain as the season moves long. And one of the things that helps is limited injuries.

Lots of fans in our herd are overlooking the amount of injuries with their projections. If we had normal amount of injuries (NHL average from all teams lets say), we would have not been picking 5th last season. More like 8-12.

Then consider that there will be some growth with some young players and our vets are a little better this season vs last season with guys exiting.

I can certainly see a 5-10 range pick but I can also see a 11-16 range pick as well. It's a long season and many good/bad things can happen. My prediction is we pick 8-12 range.

RationalExpectations said:
What I am saying is that Anderson was quoted as the one scoring and I merely mentioned he is scoring at a lower PPG than Hoffman who was supposedly done and useless. I don t especially like Hoffman‚s game but Anderson is widely overrated on those boards. People should stop saying size and skating are strength when he obviously can t help the team with those strength. He is paid as a 2nd liner whereas he is a one trick winger with tunnel vision.
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Scoring means goals to me. Anderson scored more goals and had less PP time over Hoffman who got a fair amount of assists from that.

Anderson's size and skating is more valuable than Hoffman. Just because Anderson is not a perfect power forward, it don't mean he does not provides some value in that area. You're reaching to devalue bud.

Hoffman should not be mentioned with Anderson. Bad example to prove a weak point. When it comes to Anderson, his value is his goal scoring ability and the size/skating he provides. He's certainly making more space with his forecheck than what Hoffman provided.
 
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salbutera

salbutera

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RationalExpectations said:
What does it change to be 6´4 rather than 5´10 if you can t play a whole season, or make your linemates better ? He skates fast for his size, great, but he does not really use it in a punishing way, he is not very good defensively (nothing with that watching).
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Last 5-seasons: 82GP, 26GP, 52GP (out of 56), 69GP, 69GP

Other than season prior to being dealt to Mtl with two major injuries in CBJ - Anderson has played in 90% of GP, and 86% GP during 3-years Habs tenure. For someone that engages physically that’s quite impressive.

There are 23-players dressed per game, maybe 3-4 on a high end team “make their line mates better” or are play drivers, the rest like pieces of puzzle are expected to execute their role.

Anderson’s role is to use his size + speed combo to play a north-south transition game and score 20G+ per season, if he doesn’t… that’s underachieving, if he does then he’s met expectations

Team building = having varying pieces of a successful puzzle within the limitation of the cap
 

RationalExpectations

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Habs Halifax said:
Reasonable. I think what matters the most this season is the momentum they gain as the season moves long. And one of the things that helps is limited injuries.

Lots of fans in our herd are overlooking the amount of injuries with their projections. If we had normal amount of injuries (NHL average from all teams lets say), we would have not been picking 5th last season. More like 8-12.

Then consider that there will be some growth with some young players and our vets are a little better this season vs last season with guys exiting.

I can certainly see a 5-10 range pick but I can also see a 11-16 range pick as well. It's a long season and many good/bad things can happen. My prediction is we pick 8-12 range.



Scoring means goals to me. Anderson scored more goals and had less PP time over Hoffman who got a fair amount of assists from that.

Anderson's size and skating is more valuable than Hoffman. Just because Anderson is not a perfect power forward, it don't mean he does not provides some value in that area. You're reaching to devalue bud.

Hoffman should not be mentioned with Anderson. Bad example to prove a weak point. When it comes to Anderson, his value is his goal scoring ability and the size/skating he provides. He's certainly making more space with his forecheck than what Hoffman provided.
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Even without injuries last year I don t see how MTL could have been higher than 7th. 12 point difference with DET and WSH was too much to account for. In addition you can t forget that Monahan, Anderson and Gallagher all have had recurring injuries so we can t think ceteris paribus.
 
Habs Halifax

Habs Halifax

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RationalExpectations said:
Even without injuries last year I don t see how MTL could have been higher than 7th. 12 point difference with DET and WSH was too much to account for. In addition you can t forget that Monahan, Anderson and Gallagher all have had recurring injuries so we can t think ceteris paribus.
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12 pts in the difference is like 1-2 wins in the difference per month.

Prior to the injury pile-up, we were certainly on track for a pick higher than 8th. Are you trying to tell me that historic injuries does not derail your season's momentum? Come on man. There is not much difference between 5th and 8-12 over 6.5 months of hockey. In season momentum is a huge factor and we just didn't have it after the injuries piled up.

Why are you only talking about Monahan, Anderson, and Gallagher? The injury list was much longer than that. I think you need to look in the mirror with your own ceteris paribus fancy statement. Why did you forget Caufield, Dach, Matheson, Guhle? :loony:

IMO, Habs got lucky with picking 5th last year.
 

RationalExpectations

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salbutera said:
Last 5-seasons: 82GP, 26GP, 52GP (out of 56), 69GP, 69GP

Other than season prior to being dealt to Mtl with two major injuries in CBJ - Anderson has played in 90% of GP, and 86% GP during 3-years Habs tenure. For someone that engages physically that’s quite impressive.

There are 23-players dressed per game, maybe 3-4 on a high end team “make their line mates better” or are play drivers, the rest like pieces of puzzle are expected to execute their role.

Anderson’s role is to use his size + speed combo to play a north-south transition game and score 20G+ per season, if he doesn’t… that’s underachieving, if he does then he’s met expectations

Team building = having varying pieces of a successful puzzle within the limitation of the cap
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It s still not enough games to justify his salary. You re paid to play 82 games not 85% of them.

Which winning team in the last years had a 5.5m third liner just because he is big and skates fast ? If he was such a hot commodity I can tell you CBJ would not have let him go just like that.

For me, fans love to look at features which have nothing to do with winning but impresses them (like the occasional powerhorse move). No surprise that Lehkonen, Toffoli had more demand than Anderson, they are more useful to their team.
 
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RationalExpectations

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Habs Halifax said:
12 pts in the difference is like 1-2 wins in the difference per month.

Prior to the injury pile-up, we were certainly on track for a pick higher than 8th. Are you trying to tell me that historic injuries does not derail your season's momentum? Come on man. There is not much difference between 5th and 8-12 over 6.5 months of hockey.

IMO, Habs got lucky with picking 5th last year.
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I am saying that you can t say that or this would happen without injury because if it were not for injuries, Monahan would not be with the Habs, as an example. I am saying that you can t say Monahan Anderson Gallagher Edmunson injuries were surpising because they always get injured and the outlier would have been them being healthy not being injured :)
 
salbutera

salbutera

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RationalExpectations said:
It s still not enough games to justify his salary. You re paid to play 82 games not 85% of them.

Which winning team in the last years had a 5.5m third liner just because he is big and skates fast ? If he was such a hot commodity I can tell you CBJ would not have let him go just like that.

For me, fans love to look at features which have nothing to do with winning but impresses them (like the occasional powerhorse move). No surprise that Lehkonen, Toffoli had more demand than Anderson, they are more useful to their team.
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He would not extend with CBJ - Jaarmo offered the same contract as currently signed w Habs per their beat writer Aaron Portzline

The reason Anderson makes $5.5M is because there are no other 6’3” big bodies that have high end speed, play a north south game and avg 20G+.

The big bodies who have pace and score 20G+ make $9M+ …again due to supply & demand there’s just a very limited supply

As Stevie Y or Jon Cooper said after TBay loss to CBJ a few years back “our team had no answer to Anderson”..
 
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Hannibal

Hannibal

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Very happy to see Slaf still with Dach.

Keep them together. And maybe try Newhook on the other wing or Monahan.
 
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lamp9post

lamp9post

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ChesterNimitz said:
Funny, two games ago, many here were smugly saying how poor the Leafs' prospect pool was. Now they see the Leafs as having a soon to arrive juggernaut of talent. The reality is their prospects aren't nearly as good as some here think, nor is our pool as void as some here now fear. I believe that while we will be incrementally better this year, we still will be drafting in the top 7. The silver lining is that 2024 is a very good year to be drafting in the top 10. Very good indeed.
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Agreed.

We should see internal improvement and hopefully better luck health-wise. Even still, improvement on the ice doesn't mean improvement in the standings. At least in the Atlantic I don't see us leap-frogging anyone this season.
 

Wateredgarden

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SO Parker-Jones has been unimpressive all his life except in Habs pre-season camps? I wonder if it's a thing of him learning to play hard every shifts? Seems a bit on the spectrum when he talks to the media.
 
Habs Halifax

Habs Halifax

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RationalExpectations said:
I am saying that you can t say that or this would happen without injury because if it were not for injuries, Monahan would not be with the Habs, as an example. I am saying that you can t say Monahan Anderson Gallagher Edmunson injuries were surpising because they always get injured and the outlier would have been them being healthy not being injured :)
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I'm pretty sure the Habs management and players would say similar things I am saying vs what you are saying.

Sorry but the amount of injuries we had last year were huge factors. You can play the spin game on that all you want. I'm pretty sure the Habs think they will be moving up and they are going to focus more on health this season. Fight that logic all you want.

I don't think the injuries to Monahan, Gallagher, Eddy, Anderson were as important to the ones with Caufield, Dach, and Matheson. Also, I also believe the injuries with Monahan and Anderson were bigger factors than Eddy and Gallagher. At the end of the day, it all adds up to scrambling to replace guys. Sometimes they are replaced with guys like RHP and other times, they are replaced with guys like Pezzetta.
 
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