Value of: Habs 2 x 1sts 2025 + Jordan Harris/Jayden Struble

[Xirik]

I'll try my best not to lose sleep over the Habs trading someone that would have been otherwise lost to waivers. I can point to one person showing lack of knowledge in this thread, I know that much

The Habs won't sniff playoffs this year, but it certainly won't be due to the loss of the irreplaceable Jake Allen and Kovacevic you're out here hinging their season on a backup goalie and a #6/7 defenceman

You really like to strawman. I said the Habs have two to three more seasons till they playoff window is open. What I've been saying the whole time is that throwing rookies into the roster no matter how skilled rarely means a great season is ahead of you.

right now it sounds like your agreeing with me.

 

[dgibb10]

- Kovacevic was in/out of the line-up through the year. He lost his spot due to Hutson showing he's NHL ready and Mailloux showing good things in his first NHL game. That doesn't even account for Reinbacher who should also fight for a spot in the line-up. Montreal issue on D isn't necessarily depth as they have plenty of it right now, it's at the top where the issue is. We only have Matheson and Guhle right now as D who are legit top 4. Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux can grow into that role but they aren't there... Kovacevic is in the same spot as Harris and Struble. All are just decent NHL options and replaceable.

- Monahan was a real net positive for us until we lost him. Roy should be able to take some of his offensive contribution and everyone is hoping that Dach will be able to stay healthy. At this moment, Dach is the key. If he stays healthy and plays like he did early in the pre-season and first game and a half of the season, that should completely change our offense.

- Allen was not that much of a loss. Monty is playing well and Primeau showed he can handle 25-30 starts. He was playing well despite our many losses. It's also worth noting that Montreal was the team that lost the most 1-goal game of all the NHL. We were pretty competitive all year - We just couldn't get it done.

I think Habs will be in the mix for a playoff spot next year and their window will likely open in two years depending on which (key) prospect(s) grow into the role they were drafted for. One thing I know, they will be a real menace 3-4 years from now and should be legit contenders for a good 6-8 years.

Montreal was a bottom 4 team in hockey last year analytically and have made no additions.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

We have a wealth of depth at all positions. Sure we can add to it, via more draft picks, or we can parlay those draft picks into someone that makes some of our depth expendable.

Top 6 players that are of high probability of remaining there;

Suzuki
Slaf
Caufield
Dach
Demidov

Possible top 6 players in our system;

Newhook - needs to prove it this year, I personally like him on 3rd line
Roy - see above
Hage - long ways out....but has potential

Add in Beck and Kapanen for players with 3rd line potential.


Defensive depth

Hutson - top 2/4 potential and an excellent PP QB
Guhle - already a top 4
Reinbacher - top 2/4 potential shut down d man. Perfect pair with Hutson
Mailloux - 2nd pair ceiling with high solid 3rd pair probability
Xhekaj - already a 3rd pair guy. still room to grow.

Barron, Harris, Struble, Engstrom are all projecting as minimum 3rd pair guys.

We are deep as f***. Sure...we could add someone with those two picks via draft. What I would aim for if we were to trade them, is a current u25 top 6 player or high probability projectable prospect. The question I have is, would that package score something like that.

If the offers did not meet the criteria, and they may very well not, then I would stand firm with the picks and holding our D men.

This is where I am coming from. A confirmed piece, or I stay the course. Simply asking what he value is, not whether we should do this. I would do anything if the price is right.

till your ready to contend there's no point in spending futures to speed things up. many of your prospects no matter how good they look could still bust. MTL is closer to last in the division then being a contender. seems like a terrible strategy to start buying this early. but please go ahead, prob best for MTL to be a middle of the pack team over having a legit chance to draft some game changers

 

[Baksfamous112]

What I'm mostly trying to say is that Rookies have ups and downs and just because they might be "NHL ready" they will still make mistakes and hopefully teammates that can cover for them. There have been many rookies over the year that start off hot early on but then wane. Same thing could happen to Hutson, Mailoux, and Reinbacher.

Most teams don't get instantly better once they insert rookies into the roster. It can be up and down and be quite painful.

Oh they absolutely do. You also get the odd guy who comes in and play like a seasoned pro right away. Montreal still has some learning to do, but I think their days in the bottom 5 is over.

Montreal was a bottom 4 team in hockey last year analytically and have made no additions.

They were also the team with the most 1 goal game loss in the entire NHL. They aren’t a playoff team yet, but they’ll be in the mix next year.

They haven’t made one.. yet* There’s still some names out there that are linked to Montreal. We will see. Even if they don’t add, they are still supposed to be better next year, especially if Dach is back healthy

till your ready to contend there's no point in spending futures to speed things up. many of your prospects no matter how good they look could still bust. MTL is closer to last in the division then being a contender. seems like a terrible strategy to start buying this early. but please go ahead, prob best for MTL to be a middle of the pack team over having a legit chance to draft some game changers

Yeah that package from OP makes no sense to offer to begin with.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Habs aren't at a place yet where they should be dealing their own firsts. Could backfire pretty catastrophically.

One more year of selling off pieces, and potentially trying to dump some bad contracts.

 

[dgibb10]

Oh they absolutely do. You also get the odd guy who comes in and play like a seasoned pro right away. Montreal still has some learning to do, but I think their days in the bottom 5 is over.


They were also the team with the most 1 goal game loss in the entire NHL. They aren’t a playoff team yet, but they’ll be in the mix next year.

They haven’t made one.. yet* There’s still some names out there that are linked to Montreal. We will see. Even if they don’t add, they are still supposed to be better next year, especially if Dach is back healthy


Yeah that package from OP makes no sense to offer to begin with.

If you want to point to luck in terms of individual outcomes that doesn't check out. You had a -49 goal differential, and a -62 expected goal differential.

Montreal ranks last year in the east

Points: 15th
Wins: 15th
Regulation wins: 16th
Goals for: 14th
Goals against: 15th
PP goal differential (per 60): 12th
PP expected goal differential (per 60): 14th
PK goal differential: 13th
PK expected goal differential: 16th
5v5 goal differential: 9th
5v5 expected goal differential: 15th

Kinda shit in every single aspect of hockey.

Goaltending was a big strength last year, but goalies are volatile and Montembault and Primeau aren't exactly guys with long track records of consistent success. A lot more room to go down there than up.

And then, you traded away Kovacevic who was your best penalty killer on D, so I don't expect much improvement there.
I don't see any additions to suggest big improvements coming at 5v5.


There is a possibility for an improved power play.

Losing Monahan hurts the PP, but if Dach and Hutson can contribute there, maybe there's a path to some improvement there. But again, -62 expected goal differential last year is a big margin to climb.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

I was told to stay off Montreal fantasy trade talks
I should had listen...

 

[Baksfamous112]

If you want to point to luck in terms of individual outcomes that doesn't check out. You had a -49 goal differential, and a -62 expected goal differential.

Montreal ranks last year in the east

Points: 15th
Wins: 15th
Regulation wins: 16th
Goals for: 14th
Goals against: 15th
PP goal differential (per 60): 12th
PP expected goal differential (per 60): 14th
PK goal differential: 13th
PK expected goal differential: 16th
5v5 goal differential: 9th
5v5 expected goal differential: 15th

Kinda shit in every single aspect of hockey.

Goaltending was a big strength last year, but goalies are volatile and Montembault and Primeau aren't exactly guys with long track records of consistent success. A lot more room to go down there than up.

And then, you traded away Kovacevic who was your best penalty killer on D, so I don't expect much improvement there.
I don't see any additions to suggest big improvements coming at 5v5.


There is a possibility for an improved power play.

Losing Monahan hurts the PP, but if Dach and Hutson can contribute there, maybe there's a path to some improvement there. But again, -62 expected goal differential last year is a big margin to climb.

Montembeault has been consistently good for two years now despite being on a pretty terrible team (as you said it yourself). He's just entering his prime. Goalies are unpredictable but he's been fairly consistent in his play over two years, enough that I'm not too worried about his play for the next couple of years.

Kovacevic was a healthy scratch for 22% of our regular season games on (as you stated yourself) a pretty weak D despite being the only RHD with Savard on the team. To say he had an impact on the outcome of the game - or in this case on the PK - is laughable at best. He was steady when he was in the line-up but let's not act like he made a difference, because he didn't.

The big improvement we *should* see is internally. Slafkovski had 36 of his 50 points in the second half of the season. Newhook somewhat took off after he came back from his injury after a rough start of the season and ankle injury. We haven't seen Dach all year despite him being our best forward during training camp and game 1. Joshua Roy paced at around 35 points after being called up at 20 years, he should start the year in Montreal. Hutson should help with the transition and add some threats from our blueline.

I'm not saying Montreal will make the playoffs but I am pretty certain they won't be a bottom 7 team either. They should be able to play meaningful games until at least the last stretch next year.

 

[dgibb10]

Montembeault has been consistently good for two years now despite being on a pretty terrible team (as you said it yourself). He's just entering his prime. Goalies are unpredictable but he's been fairly consistent in his play over two years, enough that I'm not too worried about his play for the next couple of years.

Kovacevic was a healthy scratch for 22% of our regular season games on (as you stated yourself) a pretty weak D despite being the only RHD with Savard on the team. To say he had an impact on the outcome of the game - or in this case on the PK - is laughable at best. He was steady when he was in the line-up but let's not act like he made a difference, because he didn't.

The big improvement we *should* see is internally. Slafkovski had 36 of his 50 points in the second half of the season. Newhook somewhat took off after he came back from his injury after a rough start of the season and ankle injury. We haven't seen Dach all year despite him being our best forward during training camp and game 1. Joshua Roy paced at around 35 points after being called up at 20 years, he should start the year in Montreal. Hutson should help with the transition and add some threats from our blueline.

I'm not saying Montreal will make the playoffs but I am pretty certain they won't be a bottom 7 team either. They should be able to play meaningful games until at least the last stretch next year.

Yes. That is how bad the rest of your PK defenders are.

Here are the worst penalty killing dmen in the last 2 years (in terms of xgoals/60 against) out of the 112 guys who have played at least 200 minutes (approximately the top 4 PK guys on each team)

Dead last: Mike matheson
Second last: David Savard
101st: Kaiden Guhle

76th: Kovacevic

A large portion of Juraj Slafkovsky's "development/breakout" was simply a change in situation. He went from PP2 and Scrubs as linemates to Caufield+Suzuki as linemates and PP1 time. Now, he should develop more yes, but I think it will be a lot smaller a production increase then you'd think, because there is simply nowhere higher to go in terms of situation.

Kirby Dach has never shown an ability to be productive 5v5, or an effective 5v5 hockey player outside of when he was placed on Suzuki-Caufield wing. Since Slafkovsky has claimed that spot, I have very low expectations for Dach. He should help the power play though.

And Newhook. He had a good year. But again, a large portion of his production improvement came from getting PP1 time, which I expect him to be taken off of.

It'll likely be a good battle between Columbus and MTL for last in the east.

Columbus is far ahead in terms of their defensive core.
MTL had much better goaltending last year but that can flip at any point with how volatile goalies are.

I prefer MTLs top line fs (at least assuming no Laine).
I prefer CBJs middle 6.
I prefer MTLs 4th line.

 

[loadie]

We’re in the middle of summer and I thought what the Op was kinda getting at would have been interesting if posters weren’t being so serious. Yes, the Habs aren’t about to trade away next years first pick, they aren’t at that point in the rebuild right now. Most of us understand that, but it’s the middle of summer, for the Love of God, let’s just have some fun with this. Who could the Habs get with the assets given by the Op, it’s just for shits and giggles

 

[TBF1972]

Habs 2 x 1sts 2025 + Jordan Harris/Jayden Struble = Habs 2 x 1sts 2025

adding harris or struble to the equation is more or less meaning less

 

[Habs Halifax]

Panthers/Flames 1st:
* Flames probably finish 5-10 range and it's top 10 protected. 25% chance the Flames finish 11-16 range.
* Panthers pick is probably 20-25 range at a min.

Habs 1st:
* Probably will have top 10 protection if it's traded.
* Decent chance that the Habs finish 11-15 range.

So it's probably a pick around 25 and 11-15 with an outside chance it's two picks from 11-15! That's very good value.

Harris is meh to me (bottom pairing depth guy). Struble is only in his 2nd pro year coming. He had a very solid year for his 1st pro season. Hard to know how much more he improves.

 

[CDN24]

Habs aren't at a place yet where they should be dealing their own firsts. Could backfire pretty catastrophically.

One more year of selling off pieces, and potentially trying to dump some bad contracts.

Exactly look at Ottawa and The ill advised Debrincat and Chycrun trades,

Those 2 acquisitions (Debrincat and Chychrun) were designed to advance the rebuild, instead it set them back probably 3 yrs. The Ullmark one may be no better if he does not extend with them. If you include the net of acquiring and disposing of Debrincat and Chychrun with acquisition of Ullmark as the 1st they used is the one they got back from Det for debrincat.

In
Ullmark,
Jensen,
2026 3rd,
2024 4th (112 OA)
Sebrango (looking like an AHler)

Out
2022 1st (7th OA)
2022 2nd (39 OA)
2023 1st (12 OA)
2024 2nd (49th OA)
2024 3rd (72 OA)
2026 2nd
Kastelic
$1M salary retention for 4 yrs.

 

[SallyBalls]

We have a wealth of depth at all positions. Sure we can add to it, via more draft picks, or we can parlay those draft picks into someone that makes some of our depth expendable.

Top 6 players that are of high probability of remaining there;

Suzuki
Slaf
Caufield
Dach
Demidov

Possible top 6 players in our system;

Newhook - needs to prove it this year, I personally like him on 3rd line
Roy - see above
Hage - long ways out....but has potential

Add in Beck and Kapanen for players with 3rd line potential.


Defensive depth

Hutson - top 2/4 potential and an excellent PP QB
Guhle - already a top 4
Reinbacher - top 2/4 potential shut down d man. Perfect pair with Hutson
Mailloux - 2nd pair ceiling with high solid 3rd pair probability
Xhekaj - already a 3rd pair guy. still room to grow.

Barron, Harris, Struble, Engstrom are all projecting as minimum 3rd pair guys.

We are deep as f***. Sure...we could add someone with those two picks via draft. What I would aim for if we were to trade them, is a current u25 top 6 player or high probability projectable prospect. The question I have is, would that package score something like that.

If the offers did not meet the criteria, and they may very well not, then I would stand firm with the picks and holding our D men.

This is where I am coming from. A confirmed piece, or I stay the course. Simply asking what he value is, not whether we should do this. I would do anything if the price is right.

You're selling Mallioux way too short. I think he becomes a great 2nd pairing D man. A no 3.

 

[kyne]

There are virtually no similarities to their game, this is such a dumb comparison lol

He's only played two games and that's not enough. His size is still a concern . There is a still a good chance he ends up a luxury player like MAB or Reijo Ruotsalainen.

 

[Doublechin]

Lol

Ain't no way the Habs offer that when odds are that's a top 5 to 8 pick

Add another first and a solid young D and it's too much and nothing that comes back will be enough and no team will pay fair value, at least not now.

Maybe if some team decides to blow up close to next deadline than something might pop up otherwise ad of now, this wouldn't lead to much

 

[Jared Dunn]

He's only played two games and that's not enough. His size is still a concern . There is a still a good chance he ends up a luxury player like MAB or Reijo Ruotsalainen.

Yes there's a chance literally every prospect ends up not being good. There is no comparison between MAB and Hutson's games other than "small, offensive oriented". Hutson's ability to drive offence is in a completely different galaxy than the players you've mentioned, the odds his skills translate to the NHL are way higher

 

[RC51]

this is all useless. habs have been on a full rebuild and it's not over yet. 2 1sts again next year.
anybody with eyes can see the habs in 3 years will not be the habs of today. SO stating that the habs are bad and will stay bad all the new rookies HAVE PROVED NOTHING YET so they could all be BUSTS. YEP that is true.

 

[Scintillating10]

Many of my fellow Habs fans need to understand something: Harris and Struble aren’t worth anything. Players of this calibre or better can be acquired at any time via waivers or free agency without having to give up assets. That reduces their value to nothing.

Habs probably keep them instead of giving them away. Harris is NHL caliber and cheap contract. Allows depth. Good in case we trade Matheson at deadline or next summer

 

[Gaud]

- Kovacevic was in/out of the line-up through the year. He lost his spot due to Hutson showing he's NHL ready and Mailloux showing good things in his first NHL game. That doesn't even account for Reinbacher who should also fight for a spot in the line-up. Montreal issue on D isn't necessarily depth as they have plenty of it right now, it's at the top where the issue is. We only have Matheson and Guhle right now as D who are legit top 4. Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux can grow into that role but they aren't there... Kovacevic is in the same spot as Harris and Struble. All are just decent NHL options and replaceable.

- Monahan was a real net positive for us until we lost him. Roy should be able to take some of his offensive contribution and everyone is hoping that Dach will be able to stay healthy. At this moment, Dach is the key. If he stays healthy and plays like he did early in the pre-season and first game and a half of the season, that should completely change our offense.

- Allen was not that much of a loss. Monty is playing well and Primeau showed he can handle 25-30 starts. He was playing well despite our many losses. It's also worth noting that Montreal was the team that lost the most 1-goal game of all the NHL. We were pretty competitive all year - We just couldn't get it done.

I think Habs will be in the mix for a playoff spot next year and their window will likely open in two years depending on which (key) prospect(s) grow into the role they were drafted for. One thing I know, they will be a real menace 3-4 years from now and should be legit contenders for a good 6-8 years.

I am not sure Kova lost his spot to Hutson specifically, but I figure they decided they didnt need him to be a big brother. At that point, he is just a 3rd pairing D and he is in the way of younger Ds' development. Sample size for Hutson is too short for me; i want to see how he is day in and day out when the original rush of making the NHL wears off.

I also think Mtl passes the .500 mark this year, but i have a hard time seeing them past 10th in the conference. I think they would have done .500 this year if Dach had been there more than 2 games, so who knows how the Roys, Beck, Hutson, reinbacher, etc will do?

I'm not as sure as you on Primeau. I feel like his mental fortitude is iffy. I also thought some of his aftergame comments were cringe ("after they scored 2 times on my glove side, it got in my head" or whatever)

 

[Baksfamous112]

I am not sure Kova lost his spot to Hutson specifically, but I figure they decided they didnt need him to be a big brother. At that point, he is just a 3rd pairing D and he is in the way of younger Ds' development. Sample size for Hutson is too short for me; i want to see how he is day in and day out when the original rush of making the NHL wears off.

I also think Mtl passes the .500 mark this year, but i have a hard time seeing them past 10th in the conference. I think they would have done .500 this year if Dach had been there more than 2 games, so who knows how the Roys, Beck, Hutson, reinbacher, etc will do?

I'm not as sure as you on Primeau. I feel like his mental fortitude is iffy. I also thought some of his aftergame comments were cringe ("after they scored 2 times on my glove side, it got in my head" or whatever)

Kovacevic lost his spot to one of Mailloux, Huston or Reinbacher. I'm pretty sure all 3 are NHL ready but one or two will go back down because there is simply no room right now. My personal bet is Hutson and Reinbacher start the year in Montreal and Harris is traded for a mid to late pick while Struble gets the #7 role.

I agree that Montreal pass the .500 mark. I see them in the 85-90 points mark. This will be an eye-opener for many people on how good Montreal will be.

Primeau was #7 or #8 this year in 5 on 5 SV% as a 24 years old. Goalies really take off at 26-27 and he's already showing at 24 that he can be a good goalie in the NHL

 

[Anardil]

Montreal will finish bottom 5-10 in the league again so they would be fools to move their 1st right now.

Watch Ottawa and learn from their mistakes.

Rebuild is far from over.

Bingo!

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

For funsies.....we do.

Nothing is off limits. Let's see what returns this would generate before poo-pooing it.

When the mission is at hand... nothing is off limits.

 

[Chan790]

Montreal will finish bottom 5-10 in the league again so they would be fools to move their 1st right now.

Watch Ottawa and learn from their mistakes.

Rebuild is far from over.

While this is true, there isn't a lot of value here to return a top-6 F for what is probably a pick around #25, likely later, and a choice of two LHD who project as lower-pair.

With the Habs 1st, it's too much for what is likely available. Without, it feels like "who wants to give us value for...stuff."

 

[samsagat]

Like others have said, Habs 1st in 2025 is an unknown quantity. But there's good chances it will be a top 10.

At the end of the day, NHL GMs won't pay a premium for such an unknown value.

Even Calgary/Florida pick could be a nice one, if Cgy make it outside the top 10 of the draft.

So this proposal is a dead end. It will be a lot easier to evaluate those assets in ten months.