Grub's Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Trade Winds Coming Early

bossram

Registered User
Sep 25, 2013
16,819
17,384
Victoria
I don't have a narrative, I have the facts of reality as we currently know them, and they should kill the Hog is "not much" value waiver trash narrative some posters have been saying repeatedly.

Nobody has listed "relevant comparables" yet, Sprong and Garland are old vets and paid 5x more or have character reputations.
Why not use Caufield or Tolvanen, they're both small skilled wingers ,closer in age and goals etc...

The point is it doesn't matter, we know there's interest in hog from multiple teams, with his contract and that's just the ones we know of, so clearly Hoglander has value, in real life, and that it's very likely to be more than "not much" or "Sprong/Tomasino".
So that narrative should die.

These are facts from EF, supported by multiple rumors and tweets about scouts etc.
Teams want the player, with his contract, because of his proven nhl quality skills and potential.

It doesn't matter what someone thought about his contract, what your particular logic says, or what your fan math says the equivalent value is, those are opinions. And they should be changed because we know in reality teams/gms (atleast a percentage) do not care/agree. In real life they don't care about 600k differences, or that the scrap heap contains 1.5m versions. They value Hoglander specifically, and some because or the contract extension.

So clearly he has value and arguments that he would clear waivers or his contract tanked his value, or we should trade asap for whatever and sell sell sell! Are not correct arguments, we know this in reality from all the available information we have on Hoglander specifically and currently.

We need only wait and see if it's Hoglander for Marcus Pettersson straight up, or who/what the plusses are and on which side. But we're not adding a first to hog get an old ufa rental Pettersson/provorov/etc..

So the narrative that hog was worthless junk ever or because of his contract needs to go away, we will soon find out just how much value he has, myself and others think and have posted it's definitely more than not much, to possibly a decent amount, for the multitude of reasons provided.
LMAO. What "facts of reality"? What comparable transactions with players similar to Hoglander have you used as examples? Caufield's never been traded (and comparing him to Hoglander is a lot more laughable than anyone I suggested, given Caufield's scoring profile). Tolvanen? Sure. He was waived before. Great example of high value there! You've had multiple posts to show some examples, but can't!

The "facts", as they are, are really just rumours and the only teams interested based on these rumours are evidently CBJ, PIT, and WAS. Not sure if that's really high demand.

If my opinion and analysis doesn't matter (like I said, just a fan's analysis), why does yours? You've presented pretty much no logic, evidence, or reason behind your opinion. Your argument basically boils down to, "no, I know what's right". It must be worse less than mine then.

And once again, I never said he would clear waivers. You bring it up again as some kind of appeal to absurdity, despite me and pretty much no one here claiming that.

Fine my original estimate is off, 3M is worth 2.52 M with the cap.

Actually with the cap rising, salaries are going to get pushed up except for the ones earning min wage. There isn’t enough high value talent for team to spend on. We have Marner and Ratanen that’s worth 10+M in UFA and that’s pretty much it. There is enough of an increase where the top teams will get their guys and then a bunch of trying to improve their roster team is going to overpay for guys because there aren’t enough to go around.

With 32 teams, there is just not enough talent and cap going ip will mean there will be more competition for guys.
I mean, you're still getting the number wrong despite me literally doing the math for you.

Regarding the bolded, yes, I think some clubs will do that. They won't be able to sign or they'll miss out on top players. Then they'll pivot and spend/overpay on mid-tier players, given their newfound cap space.

As I've said repeatedly, I think GMs that do so are making a mistake.
 
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arttk

Registered User
Feb 16, 2006
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Los Angeles
LMAO. What "facts of reality"? What comparable transactions with players similar to Hoglander have you used as examples? Caufield's never been traded (and comparing him to Hoglander is a lot more laughable than anyone I suggested, given Caufield's scoring profile). Tolvanen? Sure. He was waived before. Great example of high value there! You've had multiple posts to show some examples, but can't!

The "facts", as they are, are really just rumours and the only teams interested based on these rumours are evidently CBJ, PIT, and WAS. Not sure if that's really high demand.

If my opinion and analysis doesn't matter (like I said, just a fan's analysis), why does yours? You've presented pretty much no logic, evidence, or reason behind your opinion. Your argument basically boils down to, "no, I know what's right". It must be worse less than mine then.

And once again, I never said he would clear waivers. You bring it up again as some kind of appeal to absurdity, despite me and pretty much no one here claiming that.


I mean, you're still getting the number wrong despite me literally doing the math for you.

Regarding the bolded, yes, I think some clubs will do that. They won't be able to sign or they'll miss out on top players. Then they'll pivot and spend/overpay on mid-tier players, given their newfound cap space.

As I've said repeatedly, I think GMs that do so are making a mistake.
2.52x1.19=2.999… don’t be so pedantic.

Mistake? Depends on which team. For a bunch of teams that are lacking talent and is limited in what they can get, overpaying slightly for a guy like Hog is fine. When the cap is at 97M next year, overpaying a guy like by 500k on a 3M contract doesn’t make a difference. The difference is not having 1 more guy that moves the team forward and the opportunity cost.
 
Feb 19, 2018
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I’m going with my gut intuition and say Hoglander ends up in Carolina, lots of smoke in the past about them being interested and I think the Canucks can pry Morrow out for him.
 
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VanillaCoke

Registered User
Oct 30, 2013
26,424
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LMAO. What "facts of reality"? What comparable transactions with players similar to Hoglander have you used as examples? Caufield's never been traded (and comparing him to Hoglander is a lot more laughable than anyone I suggested, given Caufield's scoring profile). Tolvanen? Sure. He was waived before. Great example of high value there! You've had multiple posts to show some examples, but can't!

The "facts", as they are, are really just rumours and the only teams interested based on these rumours are evidently CBJ, PIT, and WAS. Not sure if that's really high demand.

If my opinion and analysis doesn't matter (like I said, just a fan's analysis), why does yours? You've presented pretty much no logic, evidence, or reason behind your opinion. Your argument basically boils down to, "no, I know what's right". It must be worse less than mine then.

And once again, I never said he would clear waivers. You bring it up again as some kind of appeal to absurdity, despite me and pretty much no one here claiming that.


I mean, you're still getting the number wrong despite me literally doing the math for you.

Regarding the bolded, yes, I think some clubs will do that. They won't be able to sign or they'll miss out on top players. Then they'll pivot and spend/overpay on mid-tier players, given their newfound cap space.

As I've said repeatedly, I think GMs that do so are making a mistake.
Jc did you read any of the multiple posts by multiple people on why he might have value?!

The point is the narrative that he has not much value (wwaivers) should be dead based on what we now know to be accurate information.
That's it.

By whomever was making such statements, idc who made what claims, that narrative is dead. tI dont need to prove anything. To disprove a narrative that is very easy to see with all the teams scouting and having interest in Hoglander.
It is reality idk what you're arguing.

No "previous comparables" are necessary or required by me or you or anyone to prove anything because we're specifically talking about Hoglander and if he's waiver tier"not much" value or not.

Again the number doesn't matter, it doesn't matter if anyone thinks his contract is a negative, we know it's not because multiple teams are interested and atleast willing to talk top4D in return, we don't know what or who adds plusses yet.


That's it.
Hoglander has more than not much value, his contract is not a negative and he would never have cleared waivers. Those narratives are dead, Those opinions are incorrect and ppl who hold them should reevaluate their positions.


It's like anyone who was hypothetically arguing boeser value was not much or would clear waivers (again both of which happened and both can easilybe found with a search, not saying you) because struggling or contract or whatever, they were incorrect. It was an opinion we know now to be incorrect based on available information.
We don't need skilled winger comparables to boeser from before, or math, or logic or anything else. That narrative was not correct and those people should've re-evaluated their opinions because they turned out to be incorrect.

We also now know the narrative Hoglander is low value or bad contract to be incorrect, because we will soon see him traded for value. How much exactly we don't know yet, I say decent to good value, others say we have to add a 1st to get provorov.
We will also soon see which one is correct.

That's it.
Hoglander has more than not much value, his contract is not a negative and he would never have cleared waivers. Those narratives are dead, those opinions are incorrect.
 

Blue and Green

Out to lunch
Dec 17, 2017
4,117
4,419
The cost certainty is appealing if you view Höglander as a lottery ticket where the payout is moderately large. Many GMs probably see him as an NHL regular that can slot up and down the lineup as needed, and not look too out of place. His track record agrees with that. Perhaps that is an irrational, granted. But there are a limited number of players that satisfy this criteria which makes him somewhat of a commodity league wide.
Yes, and a cheap lottery ticket at that. If a playoff team is looking for someone to improve their bottom-six scoring and play driving, and they don't have much cap space, Hoglander's on a $1.1M AAV this season.

After the season... if he fits their plans and looks like a respectable third-line winger or better, they keep him. If not, they can either trade him to a team that is willing to take him at 3x3 or retain a small portion of AAV in a trade or (worst-case scenario) buy him out at a total cost of only $3.7M in both cash and cap hit, spread out across six years.

Tocchet is obsessed with the defensive play of his forwards but not everyone is like that; some coaches and management will accept the defensive downside and lack of special teams contributions to get the value from his ES offence and forechecking. This isn't a player who just stands off to the side and occasionally snipes a goal, and/or lives off of the PP.
 

LemonSauceD

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Jul 31, 2015
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This guy is cold as ice. If he grew up in an Italian neighbourhood he might have grown up to be a mafia hitman.


Christopher Moltisanti ova here
Damn the virus has spread from Minnesota to Pittsburgh fans

Obligatory if Lekkerimaki is traded itd be for Joel Eriksson Ek and a 1st but I dont really think Eriksson Ek is good enough to warrant the trade
Aw man I REALLY think Faber and Eriksson Ek would be REALLY perfect for us. I REALLY REALLY think a 1st and Hoglander should be enough. I think Minnesota fans would most definitely agree with me.
 

Wisp

Registered User
Nov 14, 2010
7,697
2,356
Rangers fans trying to manifest lol. Drury being a rat. Why would JT after enduring Benning want to go through an imploding New York? Lol. 5-1 shellacking to the devil's tonight.
 

BlueGoose27

Registered User
Sep 6, 2024
52
24
Rangers fans trying to manifest lol. Drury being a rat. Why would JT after enduring Benning want to go through an imploding New York? Lol. 5-1 shellacking to the devil's tonight.
Yeah, i don’t see it nor understand it from JT’s side. Why would he want to leave a team w a legit opportunity to play for the cup, for a team is complete disarray? It makes no sense. Also, who would the NYR trade? If I’m Vancouver I’m asking for a ton…Miller or Schneider need to be apart of the trade, possibly Laf, a 1st and Othmann, Berard or Sykora. Even then I’d be hesitant. Who the hell knows what’s going on. Nothings been said from JT’s camp on anything, so it’s tough to get a read on anything.
 
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SeawaterOnIce

Bald is back in style.
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Aug 28, 2011
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He signed a retirement contract to stay here 2 summers ago. His wife and children seem to be anchored here.

If and it's a big if he wants out....then there is absolutely something rotten with the team.
 
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