Grub's Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Trade Winds Coming Early

[arttk]

If youre Benning, yes. In reality all a raising cap does is give more money to the good players.

There aren’t enough good players to pay. I am guessing there are like 10-15 teams that don’t have more than like 1 guy that is worth 10+ and players that earn that much won’t hit the market.

 

[arttk]

No, it really is not. As I've outlined.

The cap isn't (and hasn't) gone up by 50% in two years. It's projected to go up 13% in two years, which means your assumed $2M cap hit would actually be worth....$2.26M

Actually more like 20% considering it’s going up from 88?>97>105.
So I guess 3M is like the 2.5M. I really don’t see how that is like a bad deal. I mean it Hog doesn’t recover at all then yes but if he gets back to pole 20G ES scorer then that’s a good contract. If you look at teams that are interested like the pens, who the hell do they need to pay? It’s not like they have like a young guy coming up that will demand 10+. They actually probably want to bet on guys like that and see if he’s a fit with Sid (probably will because Sid is still a god) and the 3M will be really good value.

 

[Wisp]

If youre Benning, yes. In reality all a raising cap does is give more money to the good players.

Not true. I mean, this is just middling forwards... What expansion has done to the defensemen demand and compensation is silly.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Btw, not in agreement on all the Suter re-sign discussions. Riding a shooting % heater rn. Definitely has utility as a utility knife 7th forward type who can slot up and down, but not someone who fits full time as a C on this team given we should really find a righty faceoff winning guy. Management also has shown the ability to churn excess value.

We also just signed Heinen.

Come the end of the season, you'd assume Suter would return to his 35-40 point pace that he's historically been at. Like if he's back at an affordable ticket, cool. But I don't get the overreaction to all of a sudden be like oMG we gotta bring him back.

Suter has always run a little hot and cold, hence why he was available on the market when he was for the dollar amount he was. If he’s able to extend this current heater, great, but at the moment, it just feels like a hot streak (which we are definitely benefitting from and is in no way a bad thing).

If it ends up being something more, that’s great news. But too early to talk about an extension / raise yet.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

According to Elliot

PIT/CBJ/WSH are interested in Hog and they LIKE that he has terms

It would be hilarious if Pens traded McGroaty

 

[Wisp]

According to Elliot

PIT/CBJ/WSH are interested in Hog and they LIKE that he has terms

It would be hilarious if Pens traded McGroaty

doubtful. it was said the Pens were trying to offer Marcus Pettersson for him.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I mean, if you're not going back to discuss Brock/Garland, why did you bring up Boeser? You're using them as examples of people being "wrong" on stuff, and you are replying directly to me, thus implying I was wrong on them. I am simply rebutting you, that my opinions on those players were proven correct.

The Garland comparison is instructive. Smallish, (perceived) middle-six offense-only wingers don't hold much value. Look what just happened to Sprong. Look at what just happened with Tomasino. We see this time and again.

I do think the extension is a net negative to his value. For what Hoglander is (perceived) to bring, GMs can find that on the scrap heap every offseason for $1M. $3M is overkill.

Yeah, there are a lot of bad contracts in the NHL. They are bad. Everyone knows they are bad. What do disimilar players on bad contracts have to do with Hoglander? The guys you mentioned have no trade value and everyone knows it.

There's no world where Hoglander is returning a 1st. I see his value as closer to the Tomasino deal (but not as low).

The most persuasive argument about Hoglander returning something decent is from @Vector: some GMs just aren't rational or smart.

Again if one is trying to compare Hoglander with Sprong and Garland idk what to tell you, it's a stupid basis other than small and skilled.
Everything else is completely different.

I didn't say a first, clearly. I said equivalent value to a late first, as in not adding another first to return Provorov or some mid ufa rental.

Anyone who thinks his contract is a negative is not correct, objectively, and should simply adjust their opinion, and thus possibly ones opinion of Hogs value..

The current financial NHL climate is not the same as 2019, and only growing, cap going up. Clearly actual NHL teams/execs are interested in Hoglander with his contract, he is young fast and proven nhl calibre. Insiders are relaying the RELATIVELY low aav cost certainty is a positive, that's the facts of reality.
Whether you or others like(d) the extension or not is irrelevant, its signed and in real life has not affected his value negatively.


See below:

And if you were a GM, you wouldn't be interested. I get it. I even agree with your reasoning. But not all GMs think that way. They see a guy who can pot 24 goals basically all at evens and has been deployed by the canucks in the top6 and bottom6 and they think to themselves: I could use a guy like that. And whats more, my team is going to be bad for the foreseeable future and here's a relatively young player with room to grow who will have the opportunity to do so on my bad team in need of warm bodies to insulate my top picks as they learn the ropes. And all without the risk of contract negotiations. You can (and have) called it laziness, but I can kind of also see the appeal if I squint hard enough.

Like take this and expand on it, as much as one can and factor in all hogs plus qualities and age etc etc and you should conclude hog has decent value to atleast a percentage of teams.

Never been garbage or "not much" value and never would've cleared waivers, that's my point and the narrative that should be dead now.

We'll see his value soon enough and it's not going to be Tomasino/Sprong tier, full stop, that opinion is not and will not be correct.

I don't think he's going to return Sillinger either for what it's worth but I wouldn't complain or be shocked if we'd added something else cbj likes ..?

 

[bossram]

Actually more like 20% considering it’s going up from 88?>97>105.
So I guess 3M is like the 2.5M. I really don’t see how that is like a bad deal. I mean it Hog doesn’t recover at all then yes but if he gets back to pole 20G ES scorer then that’s a good contract. If you look at teams that are interested like the pens, who the hell do they need to pay? It’s not like they have like a young guy coming up that will demand 10+. They actually probably want to bet on guys like that and see if he’s a fit with Sid (probably will because Sid is still a god) and the 3M will be really good value.

I outlined in more detail in my other reply to you. I'm not making a statement on how Dubas' values Hoglander in particularly.

But I'm pointing out that your theory and calculations of how to operate in the cap-inflationary environment are simply wrong. Again, if the cap is $105M in two years, that's a 19% increase. A $2M player would be worth $2.38M then. Again, your math is wrong and you're over $600K off from your original "estimate".

Like I've been saying, most people (including you) are not going to be able to internalize that the cap going up shouldn't actually lead to big raises for bottom-of-the-roster players.

Also, Hog's 24 goal season was on the back of 20+% shooting. Unless you believe he is one of the league's preeminent snipers, it's not really logical to conclude he's a legit 20+ goal scorer right now.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

To think he has negative value because of a poor start is ridiculous

 

[bossram]

Again if one is trying to compare Hoglander with Sprong and Garland idk what to tell you, it's a stupid basis other than small and skilled.
Everything else is completely different.

I didn't say a first, clearly. I said equivalent value to a late first, as in not adding another first to return Provorov or some mid ufa rental.

Anyone who thinks his contract is a negative is not correct, objectively, and should simply adjust their opinion, and thus possibly ones opinion of Hogs value..

The current financial NHL climate is not the same as 2019, and only growing, cap going up. Clearly actual NHL teams/execs are interested in Hoglander with his contract, he is young fast and proven nhl calibre. Insiders are relaying the RELATIVELY low aav cost certainty is a positive, that's the facts of reality.
Whether you or others like(d) the extension or not is irrelevant, its signed and in real life has not affected his value negatively.


See below:

Like take this and expand on it, as much as one can and factor in all hogs plus qualities and age etc etc and you should conclude hog has decent value to atleast a percentage of teams.

Never been garbage or "not much" value and never would've cleared waivers, that's my point and the narrative that should be dead now.

We'll see his value soon enough and it's not going to be Tomasino/Sprong tier, full stop, that opinion is not and will not be correct.

I don't think he's going to return Sillinger either for what it's worth but I wouldn't complain or be shocked if we'd added something else cbj likes ..?

We're trying to tell you that you're wrong, pretty much. You want to ignore the relevant comparable examples people have provided because they are direct evidence against your narrative, but can't provide any actual transactions that support your narrative.

I'll point you to my post below about how contracts should be valued in the cap-inflating environment. The absolute value increases for bottom-six players are not that much.

As Vector pointed out, the only GMs interested in Hoglander, based on the "insider information", are GMs we know to not exactly be top-notch. This lends more credence Vector's theory (which I agree with), that Hoglander will only be valued highly in a trade because one irrational GM does something bizarre. Not because "the league" values him highly.

I outlined in more detail in my other reply to you. I'm not making a statement on how Dubas' values Hoglander in particularly.

But I'm pointing out that your theory and calculations of how to operate in the cap-inflationary environment are simply wrong. Again, if the cap is $105M in two years, that's a 19% increase. A $2M player would be worth $2.38M then. Again, your math is wrong and you're over $600K off from your original "estimate".

Like I've been saying, most people (including you) are not going to be able to internalize that the cap going up shouldn't actually lead to big raises for bottom-of-the-roster players.

 

[Ernie]

Hoglander is very poor defensively and offers zero C or PK utility, and isn't really a PP guy. He's going to have a hard time ever being a 15 minute player over a full season on a good team or putting up more than 40ish points.

I don't really see the opportunity for a big payoff with this player. Small 40-point soft-minute middle-6 wingers don't carry a ton of value, as we saw with Sprong.

Except he wasn't sheltered last year and and across the board had very solid possession numbers. He may take some dumb penalties but he draws more than he takes.

This is a player who playing poorly right now and makes some obvious mistakes even when he's on this game, but is overall very much a net positive player.

Unlike Sprong, he is a hard worker, has a good personality, brings a physical edge, and has proven to be coachable.

Chances are very high that the Canucks will lose the trade if they trade him away for less than the value he brings. It would be dumb to trade him right now when he's struggling but that's probably why teams are calling, because they're hoping the Canucks do something dumb.

 

[Hansen]

If Marcus Pettersson is on the table for Hoglander right now you f***in take that

Lowkey I think Hoglander for Fehervary happens and Washington puts their chips in on extending Chychrun

 

[bossram]

Not true. I mean, this is just middling forwards... What expansion has done to the defensemen demand and compensation is silly.

View attachment 938951

And Jim Benning was giving the same money to guys like Jay Beagle half a decade ago. So then why don't you conclude that the cap expansion hasn't actually led to that much inflation of the "middling" tier of UFA forwards? Allvin just signed a bunch of middling forwards (Blueger, Suter, Heinen, Sherwood) to pretty cheap contracts.

If a GM is operating under the principle that a rapidly rising cap means he should be giving massive raises to bottom-half-of-the-roster players, he is simply wrong and dumb.

If Marcus Pettersson is on the table for Hoglander right now you f***in take that

Lowkey I think Hoglander for Fehervary happens and Washington puts their chips in on extending Chychrun

Why is Washington trading Fehervary?

 

[LemonSauceD]

Btw, not in agreement on all the Suter re-sign discussions. Riding a shooting % heater rn. Definitely has utility as a utility knife 7th forward type who can slot up and down, but not someone who fits full time as a C on this team given we should really find a righty faceoff winning guy. Management also has shown the ability to churn excess value.

We also just signed Heinen.

Come the end of the season, you'd assume Suter would return to his 35-40 point pace that he's historically been at. Like if he's back at an affordable ticket, cool. But I don't get the overreaction to all of a sudden be like oMG we gotta bring him back.

I wouldn't mind say moving on from Heinen next summer to be able to re sign Suter.

Suter has anayltically improved every line he's been on. That and his all around utility is very valuable. Being able to play wing, center, top 6, bottom 6, 4th line, PK, PP, OT, you can literally play him anywhere at any time.

I personally think we should re sign him.

 

[Diversification]

I wouldn't mind say moving on from Heinen next summer to be able to re sign Suter.

Suter has anayltically improved every line he's been on. That and his all around utility is very valuable. Being able to play wing, center, top 6, bottom 6, 4th line, PK, PP, OT, you can literally play him anywhere at any time.

I personally think we should re sign him.

Not opposed to dealing Heinen, but I think we can (and probably should) move on from Suter since his next contract won't have the same surplus value. This is a situation where you let management earn their money and identify the next undervalued asset.