It’s one of those things where you weigh his ceiling to his cap hit and the probability of reaching it. When Cozens was signed, it looked like he would have a high ceiling and low floor. Instead he’s regressed two seasons in a row and now looks like maybe he’ll always been overpaid. Pretty much the exact same as Kotkaniemi.
So even if he bounces back, what does that look like? Can he become a 50 point second line centre that’s good defensively and plays a heavy game? If not, that’s a pretty big risk to take.
I agree with your line of thinking. Kotkaniemi and Cozens, ones shown some promise...fleeting mind you, the other the second he was drafted was doomed. He was overdrafted, and I couldn't be more glad about it. Helped formed the board to get us Hughes, those smelly Frenchmen did (disclaimer: I have family from and in QC so it's a self-dig).
I'm not on the ups with the contract, but I do know the cap *should* be rising, and I'd expect in the Trump era for their to be more cult money for the bread and circuses, it could skyrocket. So with each passing year, it'll get more fair market value. He gets paid as a high-end 2C seems like, and is signed to 2030. In my mind, those are small little red lights blinking off, but maybe only a couple on a whole motherboard.
The player himself I did NOT like as a prospect. He was actually on my "please don't" list cause he was in range. But, y'know what? I think I was wrong about him. My belief is some guys go to situations like Buffalo, which is a veritable town of sorrows, nothing in the past, nothing on the horizon, here ya go kid, here's all the expectations and zero help and limited guidance from players who never had even a whiff of those similar expectations. Eventually, you just kind of lose your way and lose the fire that drove you to be a top prospect.
I acknowledge the risk, but there's risk in anything. There's risk in leaving the house for the day. My mindset is to embrace the risk, acknowledge it, and try your best to mitigate your risk. But, I'm a bit of a gambler at heart...so I'm a bit poor, but you have to be hawkish on them purse strings. That's just my experience, but the risk I see in Cozens is relatively small compared to the risk of leaving things as is. You have to do something, the team is as in shambles as I've seen in my short 20 years as a fan. Even the locker room is hostile, and openly so.
So, I believe Cozens can bounce back. I saw him what I thought outperform his first WJC, then take leadership in his 2nd to even greater (personal) result. There's more to the player than I had thought, and it's all upstairs. I think he's been left to hold the bag on the responsibility too many times, and he just keeps being given more to his own personal detriment. I think it's one of those "yeah it's risky now, but the risk flattens out later on if you put in the work now" situations. I'm not really expecting him to come in and solve problems, I'm expecting that to happen by cooling off a tense locker room. We'll probably tank the season, making the trade. But I'm expecting that to happen with pretty much any trade now.
