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[Jerry the great]

Jamie Olesiak this seasons Zadorov for Van? Would be closer to deadline with Olesiak having two years at 4.6 left.

he's getting top pair minutes (Montour) without any time on the PP, so unless they fall way off, i don't see him being moved. Borgen on the other hand is UFA on July 1st and has been pushed down the lineup, so i could see him being shopped at some point. Though i don't think he's an upgrade on VD.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Defencemen Trade Market:
-Canucks defence is too top heavy
-thinks the Canucks miss someone like Ian Cole
-is skeptical that any impact defencemen will become available this season
-one GM told him that all the guys their team is interested in is signed long term at price points they wouldn't be interested in paying
-Flames might not be in the market to trade Andersson after this start
-have enough of a sample size on Erik Brannstrom to suggest it's unlikely he's a long-term option
-Sharks can't retain money and Savard, for example, has reliability issues with his health
-going to be difficult to acquire impact players this season

Sabres:
-not so much the mix of players with the Sabres but the coaching
-Devils were sloppy last season
-surprised Adams hired Ruff without interviewing anyone else

Predators:
-more surprising than the lack of scoring is their poor defensive game
-hard to stay patient when you spent 100 million dollars in the off-season

Blackhawks:
-thinks this season will be a bit of a highwater mark for points until around 2028 when the rest of their draftees are ready

Garland:
-when the Coyotes weren't sure if they were going to extend him, one team told Seravalli that they weren't interested in acquiring Garland because "he's going to get 'Dwarf-Tossed'"
-Tocchet believes in Garland
-when the Canucks were looking at trading Garland, they were also looking at offloading some other contracts and thought he may have made sense as one of the contracts to trade
-his play matches with his cap hit

Garland:

 

[ManVanFan]

he's getting top pair minutes (Montour) without any time on the PP, so unless they fall way off, i don't see him being moved. Borgen on the other hand is UFA on July 1st and has been pushed down the lineup, so i could see him being shopped at some point. Though i don't think he's an upgrade on VD.

Yeah, definitely would be looking for an actual upgrade. Egor Zamula? Defensively Olli Maatta would be an upgrade over Forbort at three times the salary. Yikes. Early but I'd definitely agree with Frank that finding a top 4 upgrade would be pretty hard this year. Still holding out hope that the 3rd pair upgrade comes in the way of Willander at season's end.

 

[thecupismine]

Defencemen Trade Market:
-Canucks defence is too top heavy
-thinks the Canucks miss someone like Ian Cole
-is skeptical that any impact defencemen will become available this season
-one GM told him that all the guys their team is interested in is signed long term at price points they wouldn't be interested in paying
-Flames might not be in the market to trade Andersson after this start
-have enough of a sample size on Erik Brannstrom to suggest it's unlikely he's a long-term option
-Sharks can't retain money and Savard, for example, has reliability issues with his health
-going to be difficult to acquire impact players this season

Sabres:
-not so much the mix of players with the Sabres but the coaching
-Devils were sloppy last season
-surprised Adams hired Ruff without interviewing anyone else

Predators:
-more surprising than the lack of scoring is their poor defensive game
-hard to stay patient when you spent 100 million dollars in the off-season

Blackhawks:
-thinks this season will be a bit of a highwater mark for points until around 2028 when the rest of their draftees are ready

Garland:
-when the Coyotes weren't sure if they were going to extend him, one team told Seravalli that they weren't interested in acquiring Garland because "he's going to get 'Dwarf-Tossed'"
-Tocchet believes in Garland
-when the Canucks were looking at trading Garland, they were also looking at offloading some other contracts and thought he may have made sense as one of the contracts to trade
-his play matches with his cap hit

Imagine having seen Alvin work these past few years, and then doubting he'll be able to make a deal Making statements on how difficult it will be to acquire impact players when we're 5 games into the season is crazy.

Last season we had Tanner Pearson, Anthony Beauvillier, Poolman, Mikhayev, and Kuzmenko all on the books to start the year, and yet they still found ways to make moves. Obviously the latter two we didn't know would underperform to the extent they did, but the first 3 significantly hampered their flexibility, yet they found a way to make more deals than anyone else last season.

When the time is right, Alvin will make his move. Brannstrom right now is the Friedman stop gap from last year, but I'm fairly certain management knows they'll need more on the blueline as we get closer to the deadline.

 

[Jerry the great]

Yeah, definitely would be looking for an actual upgrade. Egor Zamula? Defensively Olli Maatta would be an upgrade over Forbort at three times the salary. Yikes. Early but I'd definitely agree with Frank that finding a top 4 upgrade would be pretty hard this year. Still holding out hope that the 3rd pair upgrade comes in the way of Willander at season's end.

Have to wait and see which teams are way out of it by late November

 

[ManVanFan]

Have to wait and see which teams are way out of it by late November

That also. A lot have their core D locked up these days. Provorov out of Columbus might go.

Van did really well getting Hronek.

Last year Hanifin and Tanev were probably the top 2 D traded. Sean Walker and Zadorov probably next best D traded.

Free agent class isn't strong either with teams probably holding on to their D like Gavrikov, Chychrun unless as you said they start to fall out of the race.

Doubt Vegas, Toronto, New York (R) will be selling a D. Lol.

Marcus Pettersson, Mike Matheson would be alright pick ups but probably costly.

Bowen Byram would be nice but it costs at least a 1st or Lekkerimaki I'd imagine.

 

[StreetHawk]

Once teams figure out what they are, they will adjust expectations. Certain things are true however.
1) Sharks have used up all 3 retention slots for Burns, EK, Hertl.
2) Savard from MTL has missed 20 games in each of the past 3 seasons with them. So, injury is a concern so see how he holds up. Should make MTL look to move him sooner rather than later.

Chicago, I said on the GDT, looking at their lineup, they have 2 players in Bedard and Vlasic that I would put money on that would be on the roster still whenever they return to the Playoffs. By the time they get close Jones might be moved with a couple of years left on his deal. The other under 25 guys, no one is a lock besides those 2. Korchinski played in the NHL at 19 for nearly 80 games, yet is demoted to the A this season. Unless he was out of this world in his D+1 season, not sure going from WHL to NHL to AHL in consecutive seasons is good for his development and confidence.

 

[arttk]

Have to wait and see which teams are way out of it by late November

Yeah no teams is going into seller mode 5 games into the season.

 

[ManVanFan]

Yeah no teams is going into seller mode 5 games into the season.

So give it another 5 to let the speculation begin?

 

[MS]

Once teams figure out what they are, they will adjust expectations. Certain things are true however.
1) Sharks have used up all 3 retention slots for Burns, EK, Hertl.
2) Savard from MTL has missed 20 games in each of the past 3 seasons with them. So, injury is a concern so see how he holds up. Should make MTL look to move him sooner rather than later.

Chicago, I said on the GDT, looking at their lineup, they have 2 players in Bedard and Vlasic that I would put money on that would be on the roster still whenever they return to the Playoffs. By the time they get close Jones might be moved with a couple of years left on his deal. The other under 25 guys, no one is a lock besides those 2. Korchinski played in the NHL at 19 for nearly 80 games, yet is demoted to the A this season. Unless he was out of this world in his D+1 season, not sure going from WHL to NHL to AHL in consecutive seasons is good for his development and confidence.

The interesting player on SJ is Mario Ferraro who makes only $3.2 million so there wouldn't be a huge need for retention there anyway.

 

[StreetHawk]

The interesting player on SJ is Mario Ferraro who makes only $3.2 million so there wouldn't be a huge need for retention there anyway.

Ferarro has another year left, so no rush for SJ. Only kids I see on their roster are Thompson and Thrun who are 22 and 23 this year (both former 3rd/4th rounders). Plus, most of the other vets like Ceci and Rutta are UFA. Walman, Benning and Ferarro are all ufa in 2026. So, this current SJ D is going to turnover a lot in the next 2 years.

 

[Vector]

Ferarro has another year left, so no rush for SJ. Only kids I see on their roster are Thompson and Thrun who are 22 and 23 this year (both former 3rd/4th rounders). Plus, most of the other vets like Ceci and Rutta are UFA. Walman, Benning and Ferarro are all ufa in 2026. So, this current SJ D is going to turnover a lot in the next 2 years.

They have quite a few promising defencemen in the AHL this year and Sam Dickinsoni n the OHL. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Walman, Benning, or Ferraro are trade during this season.

 

[StreetHawk]

They have quite a few promising defencemen in the AHL this year and Sam Dickinsoni n the OHL. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Walman, Benning, or Ferraro are trade during this season.

Like Montreal and Anaheim are finding, there is a balance of making room for youngsters and still having enough quality guys to help mentor/shield them.
Montreal it's Matheson/Savard then the experience plummets to like 114 games that Guhle had coming into the year. Ana has Fowler, Gudas, Dum to go with their 2 returning rookies and 1/3 of the year kid Zell and rookie Luneau.
So, might be best to get through this season moving off Ceci/Ruuta then return the other 3 next season with 2 kids to replace Ceci/Ruuta and keep that veteran trio around for 2/3 of the season in 25/26 before moving them out with Burns retention slot opening up.

 

[Nuckles]

One thing I'll be curious to see is if the trend of double retentions continues from last trade deadline, and if the cost will remain as low as it was.

 

[arttk]

So give it another 5 to let the speculation begin?

More like by game 20

 

[Vector]

Pettersson:
-re-iterates from his podcast that Pettersson needs to learn how to ignore the outside noise
-Miller and Boeser both learned how to do this
-Pettersson wants to do well and takes a lot of pride in what he does

Boeser:
-Canucks have a good idea of what it's going to cost to keep him after a great season
-he wants to stay and the Canucks are happy to have him
-Canucks want to challenge him a little bit

Canucks Signing Process:
-have a way of keeping quiet then getting contract done
-Miller talks were dormant then got signed in three days
-Pettersson got done in 3-4 days
-Boeser's agent got Oettinger signed very fast as well
-figures once the two sides want to get a contract done, it will get done fast

Jets:
-want to improve their blue line
-looking at a second line centre

OEL:
-people are looking at him differently now that his cap hit is lower
-Mats Sundin told Friedman that OEL will be a completely different guy now that he's won a Stanley Cup; winning brings a calm

 

[bandwagonesque]

Pettersson:
-re-iterates from his podcast that Pettersson needs to learn how to ignore the outside noise
-Miller and Boeser both learned how to do this
-Pettersson wants to do well and takes a lot of pride in what he does

Boeser:
-Canucks have a good idea of what it's going to cost to keep him after a great season
-he wants to stay and the Canucks are happy to have him
-Canucks want to challenge him a little bit

Canucks Signing Process:
-have a way of keeping quiet then getting contract done
-Miller talks were dormant then got signed in three days
-Pettersson got done in 3-4 days
-Boeser's agent got Oettinger signed very fast as well
-figures once the two sides want to get a contract done, it will get done fast

Jets:
-want to improve their blue line
-looking at a second line centre

OEL:
-people are looking at him differently now that his cap hit is lower
-Mats Sundin told Friedman that OEL will be a completely different guy now that he's won a Stanley Cup; winning brings a calm

Thank you for the summary, I can't sit through these.

Friedman's look once again going from lounge singer to financial advisor to guy sitting on an upside-down bucket in his yard smoking a cigarette in the space of a few weeks

 

[ManVanFan]

More like by game 20

I was kidding. I wasn't assuming after 5 games that teams were in sell mode. That was an idea that I didn't think needed to be stated out loud.

Last year Z played 21 games with the Flames before he was a Canuck.

There was speculation though for a little while before, not about the Canucks but that Z was unhappy. Lack of contract offer and such.

Currently, I haven't heard of any defencemen, that is sort of in that situation. OR Hanifin where he had turned down a contract offer already.

 

[F A N]

Canucks Signing Process:
-have a way of keeping quiet then getting contract done
-Miller talks were dormant then got signed in three days
-Pettersson got done in 3-4 days
-Boeser's agent got Oettinger signed very fast as well
-figures once the two sides want to get a contract done, it will get done fast

I mean with Miller they had been negotiating for a while so the parameters should have been pretty fleshed out. With Petey you're just backing up the truck. But even without that, NHL contacts are pretty simple. It's really just AAV, term, structure, and trade/movement protections.

With Boeser you just look at the contracts Miller, Petey, and DeBrusk signed and adjust. 7 or 8 years? AAV? NMC for how many years before switching to a limited NTC? Signing bonus distribution similar to Miller/DeBrusk. Like Debrusk has 3 years NMC and Miller has 4 (NMC+15 team NTC after) Boeser likely gets 4 and maybe just limited NTC to the end instead of NMC like Miller?

 

[pitseleh]

The Jake Neighbours deal is an interesting counterpoint to the Hoglander deal.

$3.75 million x 2 for 1 arb year / 0 UFA years, coming off a 19% SH% season vs $3 million x 3 for two arb/one UFA years coming off a 20% SH% season. Hoglander is a year older.

 

[timw33]

The Jake Neighbours deal is an interesting counterpoint to the Hoglander deal.

$3.75 million x 2 for 1 arb year / 0 UFA years, coming off a 19% SH% season vs $3 million x 3 for two arb/one UFA years coming off a 20% SH% season. Hoglander is a year older.

What's a bit crazy is that Hoglander put up his 24 goals in 12:06ATOI and 0PPP; Neigbours 27 goals in 15:42 with 14PPP (8G 6A)

 

[F A N]

The Jake Neighbours deal is an interesting counterpoint to the Hoglander deal.

$3.75 million x 2 for 1 arb year / 0 UFA years, coming off a 19% SH% season vs $3 million x 3 for two arb/one UFA years coming off a 20% SH% season. Hoglander is a year older.

They are kind of different. Hoglander already had 2 year bridge while this is effectively Neighbours 2 year bridge.

 

[Wisp]

how would Sundin know winning brings calm lol

 

[Vector]

Spent some time identifying defencemen that will probably be on the market. Started out by figuring out the teams that are pretty much sure fire sellers: Canadiens, Blue Jackets, Flyers, Blackhawks, Ducks, Sharks, and Sabres*.

I think the Sabres will make some sort of panic move if this season continues to go sideways. They could turn it around enough to finish the same they have the last couple of seasons but will still end up selling someone off.

From these teams, we've got a list of defencemen sorted into 1st pair, 2nd pair, 3rd pair, depth, and a bonus category.

1st Pair:
Travis Sanheim - Flyers - LD - 7y/6.25m (NTC)

2nd Pair:
Cam Fowler - Ducks - LD - 2y/6.5m (4-NTC)
Henri Jokiharju - Sabres - RD - 1y/3.1m (UFA)
Mattias Samuelsson - Sabres - LD - 6y/4.28m
Connor Murphy - Blackhawks - RD - 2y/4.4m (10-NTC)
Ivan Provorv - Blue Jackets - LD - 1y/4.72m (UFA)
Michael Matheson - Canadiens - LD - 2y/4.87m (8-NTC)
David Savard - Canadiens - RD - 1y/3.5m (UFA)
Mario Ferraro - Sharks - LD - 2y/3.25m
Jake Walman - Sharks - LD - 2y/3.4m

3rd Pair:
Brian Dumoulin - Ducks - LD - 1y/3.15m (10-NTC)
Connor Clifton - Sabres - RD - 2y/3.33m
Alec Martinez - Blackhawks - LD - 1y/4.0m (UFA) injured
T.J. Brodie - Blackhawks - LD - 2y/3.75m
Rasmus Ristolainen - Flyers - RD - 3y/5.1m
Jan Rutta - Sharks - RD - 1y/2.75m (UFA)
Cody Ceci - Sharks - RD - 1y/3.25m (UFA)
Matt Benning - Sharks - RD - 2y/1.25m

Depth:
Jack Johnson - Blue Jackets - LD - 1y/0.77m (UFA)
Erik Johnson - Flyers - RD - 1y/1.0m (UFA)

No Chance:
Erik Gudbranson - Blue Jackets - RD - 2y/4.0m (10-NTC) injured

---

There's also a few players who could be potential Hronek's. This list is much smaller.

Arber Xhekaj - Canadiens - LD - 2y/1.3m (RFA)
Yegor Zamula - Flyers - LD - 2y/1.7m (RFA)
Bowen Byram - Sabres - LD - 1y/3.85m (RFA)
Urho Vaakanainen - Ducks - LD - 1y/1.5m (RFA)

---

Quibble about whether a player is a 2nd or 3rd pairing guy all you want. Ideally the Canucks approach their other pairing like they did last year where the non-Hughes/Hronek pairs were hybrid 2/3s that traded off on duties every other game.

I don't see the Flyers actually trading Sanheim.

I think the Sabres will make some sort of panic move if this season continues to go sideways. They could turn it around enough to finish the same they have the last couple of seasons but will still end up selling someone off. I wouldn't have put Mattias Samuelsson on here but Satiar Shah brought him up yesterday. His reasoning is the Sabres have him on the 3rd pair with Dahlin, Byram, & Power above him and unlikely to want an all-left handed top-4. I really don't see them trading Byram, especially considering the Canucks won't be offering anything more than picks and prospects.

I don't think the Sharks will trade all of Ferraro, Walman, and Benning I do think one of them will get moved this season. I view both depth Johnsons as worse than the options already on the roster. The real interesting acquisitions (Gavrikov, Pettersson, etc.) are on these bubble teams that will wait as long as possible to figure out where they stand.

---

 

[Vector]

how would Sundin know winning brings calm lol

Don Taylor said this exact same thing.