Growth of hockey around the world

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What nations and continent(s) is there real growth potential the next 10-20 years that IIHF and NHL should focus on?

Some people will say hockey is okay where it is, but all other sports seem to be expanding in a big way while it seems hockey needs to and can do a better job of expanding its reach around the world.

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[Rabid Ranger]

The ice requirement is a significant limiting factor. Maybe a push in Western Europe? That's it in my opinion.

 

[Namejs]

Ice hockey is played on ice. Billions of people have never seen snow in person.

Ergo, there's only real potential in colder regions.

Parts of the world with actual winters, but very few registered players: Northern China, Kyrgyzstan. A lot of untapped potential there.

There's also a lot of potential for growth in Ukraine, northern Japan, Korea. If Ukraine was as economically developed as the West, its national team would be comfortably in the Elite tier.

Japan actually has a lot of players, but they don't seem to have a very efficient program.

Poland is another country with some untapped potential, but just like in Japan, China or Korea, it would take a major change in the popularity of the sport to really make any major gains.

 

[Albatros]

Central Asia. Generally favorable climate, growing middle classes, and at least some kind of pre-existing hockey knowledge/prestige.

 

[Fjorden]

What nations and continent(s) is there real growth potential the next 10-20 years that IIHF and NHL should focus on?

Some people will say hockey is okay where it is, but all other sports seem to be expanding in a big way while it seems hockey needs to and can do a better job of expanding its reach around the world.

Asia:
China, Korea and Japan should have a good potential. China already have more than 100 rinks, but both Japan, Korea and China needs to build hockey culture.

Europe:
Poland and Romania. Countries with fast growing economies and populations over 20 million people. Both countries needs to build better infrastructure though.(More rinks).
Ukraine if the war ends.

Norway and Germany also have more potential, as hockey is mostly a regional sport in these countries.

 

[joelef]

Ice hockey is played on ice. Billions of people have never seen snow in person.

Ergo, there's only real potential in colder regions.

Parts of the world with actual winters, but very few registered players: Northern China, Kyrgyzstan. A lot of untapped potential there.

There's also a lot of potential for growth in Ukraine, northern Japan, Korea. If Ukraine was as economically developed as the West, its national team would be comfortably in the Elite tier.

Japan actually has a lot of players, but they don't seem to have a very efficient program.

Poland is another country with some untapped potential, but just like in Japan, China or Korea, it would take a major change in the popularity of the sport to really make any major gains.

The iihf should start focusing on Asia

 

[aquaregia]

One I'd add is the Netherlands, who might not be exactly a dormant superpower but have a strong speed-skating tradition and infrastructure to support it, with the obvious transferable skills being there as a start.

 

[Vikz]

In 10 years,
1. Germany becomes a hockey superpower on par with Sweden and Finland not only in terms of iihf ratings, but also in talent production for foreign leagues and NHL draft;
2. Poland, Hungary and Great Britain are good enough to not only sniff the elite division, but get some wins and maybe not get demoted. Ukraine too, but there are a lot of "ifs" with them.

I don't see any potential risers otherwise. Apart from Latvia, that will medal 10 times by that year, of course.

 

[jj cale]

I do believe some day Germany will get on the level of the big boys and join that tier but it's still a ways off.

 

[kudla]

In 10 years,
1. Germany becomes a hockey superpower on par with Sweden and Finland not only in terms of iihf ratings, but also in talent production for foreign leagues and NHL draft;
2. Poland, Hungary and Great Britain are good enough to not only sniff the elite division, but get some wins and maybe not get demoted. Ukraine too, but there are a lot of "ifs" with them.

I don't see any potential risers otherwise. Apart from Latvia, that will medal 10 times by that year, of course.

I do believe some day Germany will get on the level of the big boys and join that tier but it's still a ways off.

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth. If anything, it's the opposite considering how weak the german junior teams have became. Wealth and big population do not guarantee you success if most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

 

[Czechboy]

I think the opposite.

Looking at u16 to U20 results and the NHL draft... Swiss are in a bit of trouble for future NHL talent (current crop is beautiful). Germans are in trouble (stutzl, drai and seider are tremendous obviously) as I don't see any coming?

Norway had some first rounders
Belarus looked to be in the rise by junio results and draft picks
Finn's are in a small bad patch but I have no doubt that will spin around.
Slovaks may have a medal contending 2030 Olympic team.

The only consistent right now is Sweden, USA and Canada. They have great NHL crops,great Junior results and great draft picks at same time. No one else has that in 2024.

 

[Czechboy]

Ice hockey is played on ice. Billions of people have never seen snow in person.

Ergo, there's only real potential in colder regions.

Parts of the world with actual winters, but very few registered players: Northern China, Kyrgyzstan. A lot of untapped potential there.

There's also a lot of potential for growth in Ukraine, northern Japan, Korea. If Ukraine was as economically developed as the West, its national team would be comfortably in the Elite tier.

Japan actually has a lot of players, but they don't seem to have a very efficient program.

Poland is another country with some untapped potential, but just like in Japan, China or Korea, it would take a major change in the popularity of the sport to really make any major gains.

I agree with this but the Czech Republic is not exactly a winter region covered in snow.

Ironically.. Vancouver and Toronto also don't get a lot of snow either. They definitely get it but that are not Winnipeg.

 

[Vikz]

most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

That's a bold statement regarding a nation that has the second highest attended league in Europe, including teams like Koln (16k average) and Berlin (13k average).

Sure, their development program is underwhelming, and Draisaitl and Stutzle are results of a mathematical probability, rather than that of structure, but I don't see how Germany does not eventually outperform countries like Czechia and Finland. They don't have to have hockey as the most popular sport. With their resources, they don't even have to have hockey as the second most popular sport. The fact that, lets say, Norway, has a few randomly appearing 1st rounders while Germany has a down year, will not change the big picture.

 

[joelef]

It would be nice to see hockey trying to get into Asian markets

 

[jj cale]

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth. If anything, it's the opposite considering how weak the german junior teams have became. Wealth and big population do not guarantee you success if most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

I think it's steadily catching on( geez they have good players now) and I think it will rise in the future just a hunch for me.

What do you mean their junior teams have become so weak?......they beat Finland last year. They are capable quite a few years now, it takes time.

Don't worry......Slovakia doesn't have to be concerned about them for awhile yet.

 

[kudla]

I think it's steadily catching on( geez they have good players now) and I think it will rise in the future just a hunch for me.

What do you mean their junior teams have become so weak?......they beat Finland last year. They are capable quite a few years now, it takes time.

Don't worry......Slovakia doesn't have to be concerned about them for awhile yet.

Their junior teams (U16 - U20) are not competetive at all versus the top 6-7 countries. They beat Finland, yes - possibly the worst finnish generation in a long time.

Im not concerned at all, I wish Germany and other countries will produce great players

 

[Czechboy]

Germany does not eventually outperform countries like Czechia and Finland.

Define eventually? I like my German hockey and I don't mean this as a knock but 'outperform Finland'?

Here are all the drafted guys since Drai... note that no German's were drafted this year (2024)

Obviously Stutzle is amazing. Reichel may still have a nice NHL career. Peterka may have a nice NHL career. Seider may win a Norris one day and is a special player. Drai is as good as it gets.

Who's next?

 

[hypereconomist]

Asia:
China, Korea and Japan should have a good potential. China already have more than 100 rinks, but both Japan, Korea and China needs to build hockey culture.

Japan might be able to improve. In recent years, there seems to be an increasing willingness of their top players to head overseas and play in more competitive leagues. This season, their mens national team has six players players abroad (EBEL, VHL/KHL, ECHL, AlpsHL, and Poland), which appears to a record number of domestic pro players playing outside of the Asia League. Last year and the previous year, their U20 team also had 6-7 players playing abroad. At least that's some hopeful signs that the Japanese Hockey Federation is recognizing, or at least will soon wake up to realize, that Japan needs to improve its development systems if it wants to improve its international standing.

South Korea is on a different path though. It will likely take multiple decades before ice hockey makes in-roads there. Korea seems to be where Japan's system was twenty years ago. They have more or less maintained their IIHF ranking since 2018, but it doesn't look like they've been able to maintain any of the development success that they experienced leading up to the Seoul olympics. Since then, they've folded two of their three Asia League teams, they haven't grown the number of registered men's players (still around 130 registered), all of their national team "stars" are 30+ years old, and success of their U18/U20 teams has been stagnant.

On the bright side, they have Jim Paek coaching their international teams and Asia League team, and quite a large number of ice rinks (according to IIHF). On the other hand, their player base is a fraction of the size of neighboring Japan and China, they have an even less cultural connection to ice hockey than Japan (and China to a lesser extent), and Korean youth seem to have more external pressures that drive them away from sports than in Japan and China. IMO, South Korea needs to focus on making ice hockey more appealing to their youth and increase player registration before major improvements to their development systems will be useful. The state of ice hockey in South Korea will likely get worse before it gets better.

 

[Albatros]

At least that's some hopeful signs that the Japanese Hockey Federation is recognizing, or at least will soon wake up to realize, that Japan needs to improve its development systems if it wants to improve its international standing.

Now they have the chance, given that hockey was just removed from the All-Japan Junior High School Sports Festival. That naturally means that the Junior High School Sports Federation will no longer foot the bill and the JIHF gets to fill the void with their less-than-endless resources.

 

[Urbanskog]

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth. If anything, it's the opposite considering how weak the german junior teams have became. Wealth and big population do not guarantee you success if most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

The U20 team of Germany used to be mostly a Division 1 team that was usually relegated right back to Division 1 after each promotion. Now they have been in the elite division constantly since 2020 so it's clear their junior teams have gotten better.

 

[alko]

Japan might be able to improve. In recent years, there seems to be an increasing willingness of their top players to head overseas and play in more competitive leagues. This season, their mens national team has six players players abroad (EBEL, VHL/KHL, ECHL, AlpsHL, and Poland), which appears to a record number of domestic pro players playing outside of the Asia League. Last year and the previous year, their U20 team also had 6-7 players playing abroad. At least that's some hopeful signs that the Japanese Hockey Federation is recognizing, or at least will soon wake up to realize, that Japan needs to improve its development systems if it wants to improve its international standing.

South Korea is on a different path though. It will likely take multiple decades before ice hockey makes in-roads there. Korea seems to be where Japan's system was twenty years ago. They have more or less maintained their IIHF ranking since 2018, but it doesn't look like they've been able to maintain any of the development success that they experienced leading up to the Seoul olympics. Since then, they've folded two of their three Asia League teams, they haven't grown the number of registered men's players (still around 130 registered), all of their national team "stars" are 30+ years old, and success of their U18/U20 teams has been stagnant.

On the bright side, they have Jim Paek coaching their international teams and Asia League team, and quite a large number of ice rinks (according to IIHF). On the other hand, their player base is a fraction of the size of neighboring Japan and China, they have an even less cultural connection to ice hockey than Japan (and China to a lesser extent), and Korean youth seem to have more external pressures that drive them away from sports than in Japan and China. IMO, South Korea needs to focus on making ice hockey more appealing to their youth and increase player registration before major improvements to their development systems will be useful. The state of ice hockey in South Korea will likely get worse before it gets better.

Problem with Japan and South Korea is, they are practically isolated from the rest of the ice hockey world. China isnt a partner, that will help them grow. They don't have opportunities to play national games vs established ice-hockey countries.

 

[Lambo]

That's a bold statement regarding a nation that has the second highest attended league in Europe, including teams like Koln (16k average) and Berlin (13k average).

Unfortunately, the viewer numbers are no indication of this. Even if Germany were relegated and would be B-class for the next 10 years and have 0 drafts. Nevertheless, Cologne, Berlin, Mannheim, Düsseldorf, etc. would not have fewer spectators than they do now.

 

[Lambo]

I don't even know if hockey still plays a role? Maybe even field hockey has a bigger future? Hockey is too centered in the NHL. There may be some countries in Europe that are enthusiastic about ice hockey, but I think it continues to dwindle. As more and more countries are getting better at football and the enthusiasm for what is already a top sport will continue to increase. There is less and less space for hockey and it is far too expensive.

 

[bv29]

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth.

I would like to know more about this, since on my book shelf there is a book called "100 meister history of german championship". Book was released in 2021. and on first few pages there is a list of champions that dates back to 1912. Maybe it's just me, but there should be diffirence between tradition and fact that German U16 lost meaningless friendly game against Finland or Czechia.

 

[kudla]

I would like to know more about this, since on my book shelf there is a book called "100 meister history of german championship". Book was released in 2021. and on first few pages there is a list of champions that dates back to 1912. Maybe it's just me, but there should be diffirence between tradition and fact that German U16 lost meaningless friendly game against Finland or Czechia.

Right, I'd change it to popularity.