Growth of hockey around the world

[Vikz]

Define eventually? I like my German hockey and I don't mean this as a knock but 'outperform Finland'?

Here are all the drafted guys since Drai... note that no German's were drafted this year (2024)

View attachment 905933

Obviously Stutzle is amazing. Reichel may still have a nice NHL career. Peterka may have a nice NHL career. Seider may win a Norris one day and is a special player. Drai is as good as it gets.

Who's next?

Now do Czechia during the same period. Pasta on the same year as Drai, obviously superstar. Then? Zacha? Ok he's good. Hronek? Yeah, he's good too. Necas, Chytil, ok. Who else? Last player to make at least some impact in the NHL is Zadina from 6 years ago, and he's already moved to Switzerland.
Not trying to say they are doing better than Czechia. Still a giant gap between, and you guys have top prospects incoming. But why cant they potentially be better? Because Germans love their football so much more? Well, so do Czechs.

 

[HockeyScotty]

I see a continuing trend of Germany pushing their way into the top 8 along with Switzerland consistently. The economy and population of Germany has the potential to push for top 5 nations if they keep up their development.

France, Denmark, Austria and Norway can also continue rising but their potential is limited.

Places I would love to see investments and I think would really take to hockey in a big way: Japan, Great Britain, Scotland, Ireland, and Poland.

Aside from that I think that Argentina and Chile could be hockey hotbeds in the Southern Hemisphere and possibly even the mountain region of Colombia; New Zealand would be pretty interesting: an "All Blacks" version of an ice hockey team would be fun. Another region would the be Himalayan regions of Nepal, Tibet, northern India, southwestern China. I fully understand that all of them would be "starting from scratch" however.


Going back to the root question however therein lies the real problem: the IIHF has a different version of hockey than the NHL and there is a century-long lack of communication and agreement between the two biggest organizations in ice hockey. Then you throw in the KHL organization as a third power in the mix as well.

How big can ice hockey ever get with that massive fragmentation?

Soccer/Futbol pretty much follows FIFA guidance (for good or bad) and all pro leagues fall under their world-wide leadership indirectly.

Rugby is split between Rugby Union and Rugby League then there is American Football, Canadien Football, Gaelic Football, and Australian Rules Football which are all variants of the same sport.

Collectively, these would be the 2nd most popular sport in the world and challenging soccer/futbol for the #1 spot possibly but the fracture in the rules/leadership hundred+ years ago created the regional games to develop by themselves. And this results in the sport not being regularly competed at in the Olympics as well as many other "worldwide" ineffeciencies.

Ice hockey isn't quite as fractured but it is too expensive and geographically narrow of a sport to have 2-3 splits in the power structure to truly reach the potential for worldwide growth as it could; especially compared to basketball and baseball.

 

[Czechboy]

Now do Czechia during the same period. Pasta on the same year as Drai, obviously superstar. Then? Zacha? Ok he's good. Hronek? Yeah, he's good too. Necas, Chytil, ok. Who else? Last player to make at least some impact in the NHL is Zadina from 6 years ago, and he's already moved to Switzerland.
Not trying to say they are doing better than Czechia. Still a giant gap between, and you guys have top prospects incoming. But why cant they potentially be better? Because Germans love their football so much more? Well, so do Czechs.

Oh we've been shit for awhile and dropped out of the Top 5 very much because of our incompetence. And I'd argue the last impact one was Necas 7 years ago.. but the question was who next for Germany? I don't see any future NHL players right now. I feel like they are already in the NHL and the pipe is bare. Including no guys drafted this season. Czechs were around 15.

For the Czechs here are some guys who I think are next and may not suck... Jiricek, Jiricek, Svozil, Dvorak, Sale, Hrabal, Badinka. All drafted in first 2 rounds. This draft year has Benak and Mrtka.

We also have about 6 to 8 NHL goalies right now on top of our roughly 12 to 15 NHL skaters.

 

[Vikz]

Oh we've been shit for awhile and dropped out of the Top 5 very much because of our incompetence. And I'd argue the last impact one was Necas 7 years ago.. but the question was who next for Germany? I don't see any future NHL players right now. I feel like they are already in the NHL and the pipe is bare. Including no guys drafted this season. Czechs were around 15.

For the Czechs here are some guys who I think are next and may not suck... Jiricek, Jiricek, Svozil, Dvorak, Sale, Hrabal, Badinka. All drafted in first 2 rounds. This draft year has Benak and Mrtka.

We also have about 6 to 8 NHL goalies right now on top of our roughly 12 to 15 NHL skaters.

We're just talking different criteria. You are saying - they weren't good for a few years, they're not looking like they're to be good for a few more years - no indications that they will be better. And that's a fair point. Probably, more logical than mine.

I'm saying that a country with such resources and interest in hockey (which, I stand by my point, is plenty), will inevitably outperform smaller countries. Germany has more than trice than population of Sweden, Finland and Czechia combined. How long will those countries hold on based on their hockey enthusiasm?

Take a look at German draft prospects for the upcoming draft. Lewandowsky, a Pole, and Griva brothers - Latvians. Sure, they wont be superstars. But they could have been. There are no borders in the EU. Cultural differences are fading. People are migrating. Gone are the days, when Slovakia is all about hockey and 20 km from Bratislava Hungarians don't even know that such sport exists.

That's why I think that there will come a time when "hockey is our culture" will not be an argument. But "at least some part of our 80 million wealthy population has interest in hockey" will be an argument. And I'm saying that as a Latvian, where hockey only exists and is successful because "hockey is our culture".

 

[Fil]

Japan might be able to improve. In recent years, there seems to be an increasing willingness of their top players to head overseas and play in more competitive leagues. This season, their mens national team has six players players abroad (EBEL, VHL/KHL, ECHL, AlpsHL, and Poland), which appears to a record number of domestic pro players playing outside of the Asia League. Last year and the previous year, their U20 team also had 6-7 players playing abroad. At least that's some hopeful signs that the Japanese Hockey Federation is recognizing, or at least will soon wake up to realize, that Japan needs to improve its development systems if it wants to improve its international standing.

South Korea is on a different path though. It will likely take multiple decades before ice hockey makes in-roads there. Korea seems to be where Japan's system was twenty years ago. They have more or less maintained their IIHF ranking since 2018, but it doesn't look like they've been able to maintain any of the development success that they experienced leading up to the Seoul olympics. Since then, they've folded two of their three Asia League teams, they haven't grown the number of registered men's players (still around 130 registered), all of their national team "stars" are 30+ years old, and success of their U18/U20 teams has been stagnant.

On the bright side, they have Jim Paek coaching their international teams and Asia League team, and quite a large number of ice rinks (according to IIHF). On the other hand, their player base is a fraction of the size of neighboring Japan and China, they have an even less cultural connection to ice hockey than Japan (and China to a lesser extent), and Korean youth seem to have more external pressures that drive them away from sports than in Japan and China. IMO, South Korea needs to focus on making ice hockey more appealing to their youth and increase player registration before major improvements to their development systems will be useful. The state of ice hockey in South Korea will likely get worse before it gets better.

Remember that one year when south Korea was in the elite division (I think it was 2018 might be wrong though)

Now do Czechia during the same period. Pasta on the same year as Drai, obviously superstar. Then? Zacha? Ok he's good. Hronek? Yeah, he's good too. Necas, Chytil, ok. Who else? Last player to make at least some impact in the NHL is Zadina from 6 years ago, and he's already moved to Switzerland.
Not trying to say they are doing better than Czechia. Still a giant gap between, and you guys have top prospects incoming. But why cant they potentially be better? Because Germans love their football so much more? Well, so do Czechs.

With that game Vs Georgia in the Nations League, we should just give up on Football at this point

 

[Lambo]

I'm saying that a country with such resources and interest in hockey (which, I stand by my point, is plenty), will inevitably outperform smaller countries. Germany has more than trice than population of Sweden, Finland and Czechia combined. How long will those countries hold on based on their hockey enthusiasm?

There is not that much interest in ice hockey in Germany. Neither the big TV stations nor pay-TV channels care about this sport. By the way, the most ice hockey-crazy federal state is Bavaria. Bavaria has 13 million inhabitants (3 million more than Sweden) and still doesn't have anywhere near the standard, despite decades of enthusiasm. Ice hockey fans in Germany are event fans. Football is by far the biggest sport. Ice hockey has to compete with basketball and handball for second place in team sports. But it has a crucial disadvantage. No titles! Germany is currently the basketball world champion and is always able to go far in handball. Therefore, nothing is inevitable here.

 

[Vikz]

There is not that much interest in ice hockey in Germany. Neither the big TV stations nor pay-TV channels care about this sport. By the way, the most ice hockey-crazy federal state is Bavaria. Bavaria has 13 million inhabitants (3 million more than Sweden) and still doesn't have anywhere near the standard, despite decades of enthusiasm. Ice hockey fans in Germany are event fans. Football is by far the biggest sport. Ice hockey has to compete with basketball and handball for second place in team sports. But it has a crucial disadvantage. No titles! Germany is currently the basketball world champion and is always able to go far in handball. Therefore, nothing is inevitable here.

Hockey is easily 4th sport in the US, and might even slip to 5th, with the way football ("soccer") is developing, and you would be surprised, how hard it is to sometimes watch your own NHL team's games with all the different channels holding broadcasting rights and randomly choosing whatever game and in which state they show. Yet they, most likely, are 2nd in a best on best hockey tournament.

 

[Overrated]

There is no growth. Hockey is in a deep decline but yeah places like Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Northern China, Korea, Japan and of course Norway and Iceland would be the places to focus on.

 

[namttebih]

Central Asia. Generally favorable climate, growing middle classes, and at least some kind of pre-existing hockey knowledge/prestige.

Outside of Kazakhstan and Ukraine, did any other former republic regularly contribute players to the Soviet teams?

 

[carjackmalone]

Seems surprising there’s no hockey in Argentina,Chile or Brazil

 

[Kuracmugger]

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth. If anything, it's the opposite considering how weak the german junior teams have became. Wealth and big population do not guarantee you success if most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

I have the same opinion american football and basketball are growing more at the moment in my opinion. As a german speaking person…

 

[Lambo]

Hockey is easily 4th sport in the US, and might even slip to 5th, with the way football ("soccer") is developing, and you would be surprised, how hard it is to sometimes watch your own NHL team's games with all the different channels holding broadcasting rights and randomly choosing whatever game and in which state they show. Yet they, most likely, are 2nd in a best on best hockey tournament.

Even though hockey is the number 4 sport in the USA, the NHL is still by far the richest league in the world. This is crucial. In Best on Best, the US team didn't do much better than Finland. But that is another topic. Field hockey is e.g. Team sport number 6 or 7 in Germany and yet they are among the best in the world. There are countries where field hockey is much more important. But the fact that soccer could become No. 4 in the US surprises me a bit. Especially since the MLS is not particularly strong and the US team is still rather second class. But we do have a few parallels to German ice hockey. What the USA is in football, Germany is in ice hockey.

 

[Albatros]

Outside of Kazakhstan and Ukraine, did any other former republic regularly contribute players to the Soviet teams?

Bunyodkor Tashkent (Uzbekistan) was also a second league team. In Central Asia these were all culturally Russian organizations, of course.

But the Baltic states were vital to hockey in the USSR, the Soviet occupation of Latvia in particular gave birth to Soviet hockey which without it might not have existed.

 

[joelef]

Surprise hockey isn’t bigger in Mongolia

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Weather is getting massively overplayed here. Look at the places that are developing elite players in NA right now. Vancouver doesn't even have winter, at least not the kind you can skate on. You can field an entire nhl team, maybe 2, just from players who developed in Cali, Texas, Florida and Arizona.

Interest, indoor rinks, money, population, and to be any good, coaching.

 

[Kuracmugger]

Weather is getting massively overplayed here. Look at the places that are developing elite players in NA right now. Vancouver doesn't even have winter, at least not the kind you can skate on. You can field an entire nhl team, maybe 2, just from players who developed in Cali, Texas, Florida and Arizona.

Interest, indoor rinks, money, population, and to be any good, coaching.

I agree to a certain point but i‘d say the interest in the sport itself came over from the colder regions. So in a country where its hot everywhere and no hockey culture exists it‘s way harder to establish something than in a hot us or canadian region. But it‘s similar in switzerland most hockey players aren‘t actually from the places that are famous for snow or winter it gets cold everywhere in winter but not as in davos or st.moritz we have some days with snow a year in the lower regions but no frozen lakes are anything like that

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Surprise hockey isn’t bigger in Mongolia

Why?

 

[namttebih]

Bunyodkor Tashkent (Uzbekistan) was also a second league team. In Central Asia these were all culturally Russian organizations, of course.

But the Baltic states were vital to hockey in the USSR, the Soviet occupation of Latvia in particular gave birth to Soviet hockey which without it might not have existed.

Sorry, I meant specifically central Asian teams. The Baltic states and Belarus weren't who I was talking about. Thanks.

 

[Voight]

Ice hockey is played on ice. Billions of people have never seen snow in person.

Ergo, there's only real potential in colder regions.

Parts of the world with actual winters, but very few registered players: Northern China, Kyrgyzstan. A lot of untapped potential there.

There's also a lot of potential for growth in Ukraine, northern Japan, Korea. If Ukraine was as economically developed as the West, its national team would be comfortably in the Elite tier.

Japan actually has a lot of players, but they don't seem to have a very efficient program.

Poland is another country with some untapped potential, but just like in Japan, China or Korea, it would take a major change in the popularity of the sport to really make any major gains.

I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't developed a notable NHL player in some time. Yes there's a large scale war, but that's only been going on for the last 2 1/2 years.

Without doing any research the last players I remember are Ponikarovsky and Anton Babchuk.

Surprise hockey isn’t bigger in Mongolia

30% of their population is nomadic. They have less than 4 million people as is.

If the IIHF relaxed their draconian representation rules I think smaller countries could benefit. It's helped a little bit in baseball, with countries like Italy getting to use MLB players.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Its a tough ask for other countries when kids don't even play much in the country where it was invented

 

[Yukon Joe]

How? Hockey has a very little tradition in Germany and nothing so far has indicated their growth. If anything, it's the opposite considering how weak the german junior teams have became. Wealth and big population do not guarantee you success if most of the population does not even know who your best player in the NHL is.

So this is a sample size of two, but in 2022-2023 my family in Edmonton hosted two teen-age boys from Germany over the course of the school year. Neither had any idea who Leon Draisaitl was.

I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't developed a notable NHL player in some time. Yes there's a large scale war, but that's only been going on for the last 2 1/2 years.

Without doing any research the last players I remember are Ponikarovsky and Anton Babchuk.

Without going too political Ukraine ahs been at war since 2014 (Crimea and Donbass). It just got worse in 2022.

 

[Albatros]

It's also not like there has been a viable development path for players in Ukraine at any point, the only way for talents to keep developing has been to go abroad early and that's not that simple.

 

[Half Clapper]

I can easily see Norway becoming a top 8 hockey nation. They're a Winter Olympic powerhouse with awesome athletes and a strong economy!

They just had a solid draft in 24' and have some other young studs coming up in the 25/26 draft.

 

[Namejs]

Weather is getting massively overplayed here. Look at the places that are developing elite players in NA right now. Vancouver doesn't even have winter, at least not the kind you can skate on. You can field an entire nhl team, maybe 2, just from players who developed in Cali, Texas, Florida and Arizona.

Interest, indoor rinks, money, population, and to be any good, coaching.

No, climate isn't overplayed at all.

The only reason ice hockey exists in places like Arizona or Florida is due to continuous, massive investment of resources by a large corporation and/or billionaires trying to eventually turn a profit.

The first attempts at playing organized ice hockey in Florida were actually trying to lure in Canadian retirees. Most of the attempts failed. And that's in a country where NHL is based. Which obviously includes national exposure to the sport of ice hockey every single year.

Which other country on the planet fulfils these criteria? Name a country where NHL is willing to expand to and where billionaires would gladly throw their money at building a major pro hockey franchise from scratch. And note that this country has to be already exposed to ice hockey in a major and meaningful way. That's assuming a top-down development of the sport.

In what league would the Nairobi Zebras play in?

If it happens more at the grassroots level, which is the only natural way, you do realize someone has to build an ice rink first? And you do realize these things cost millions, not to mention the cost of upkeep?

By what divine providence would ice rinks suddenly appear in the tropics? Why? How would a fan base suddenly pop up out of thin air?

Think before you post.

Also, US and Canada are culturally European. Ice and snow, wintertime and Christmas trees are not an alien concept.

 

[bv29]

So this is a sample size of two, but in 2022-2023 my family in Edmonton hosted two teen-age boys from Germany over the course of the school year. Neither had any idea who Leon Draisaitl was.

Maybe they simply don't follow ice hockey or sports in general. But I do agree that NHL stars of today are not as popular(known) to general public as they were in mid-late 90-s. Which is shame given the digital age we are living in with all kind of social networks. During my elementary school (and I live in country which got promoted to D1B after six years) even average sport fans knew who Gretzky, Lemieux and Jagr are.