Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[PatrickEaves]

A cup win doesn’t matter to me unless my team does it. I wouldn’t change this group for any group because a win wouldn’t mean anything to me under those circumstances.

This journey so far is exactly what makes a sports championship so sweet, otherwise it’s just meaningless to me, no story, no drama, no dues paid.

I want to see some magic, like the Hammond run, a started from the bottom now we’re here. To hear pundits begrudgingly talk about how awesome our squad has become.

As with most things it’s all about the journey for me.

I’ll say this though, despite differing opinions, this board doesn’t have bandwagoners, we’re all on this journey together no matter how we perceive the path.

A team wins a cup every year. How many teams get a run like the Hammond run in history? You take the good moments as they come.

 

[Cosmix]

A cup win doesn’t matter to me unless my team does it. I wouldn’t change this group for any group because a win wouldn’t mean anything to me under those circumstances.

This journey so far is exactly what makes a sports championship so sweet, otherwise it’s just meaningless to me, no story, no drama, no dues paid.

I want to see some magic, like the Hammond run, a started from the bottom now we’re here. To hear pundits begrudgingly talk about how awesome our squad has become.

As with most things it’s all about the journey for me.

I’ll say this though, despite differing opinions, this board doesn’t have bandwagoners, we’re all on this journey together no matter how we perceive the path.

 

[bicboi64]

Most of the picks the Yotes have acquired have been from taking on bad short-term contracts that will expire long before their rebuild is complete. They have taken on Gostisbehere, Stralman, Ladd, Ritchie, Roussel, Beagle, Eriksson, Nemeth and Kassian - all of whom had contracts expiring within 2 years of acquisition - and in exchange they received a top 10 pick and 10 2nd round picks. That's how you take advantage of other teams with cap issues when you have lots of cap space.

Meanwhile Dorion only did that once via the Coburn/Paquette trade. Only a single time did he weaponize his cap space for futures. Rest of the time he was instead wasting tens of millions of dollars on the likes of Murray, Dadonov, Gudbranson, Stepan, Hainsey, Namestnikov, Boedker, Sanford and others - players just as bad overall (if not worse) as the cap dumps AZ acquired but instead of getting assets for taking them on, Dorion actually paid assets to acquire them. It was a terrible waste of both valuable cap space and assets.

While I'm very happy with his work this off-season, there's absolutely no denying that Dorion failed in his ability to weaponize his cap space during the rebuild and the team has far less futures to work with than we should. Should be absolutely loaded with prospects and picks after the massive tear down rebuild, but after some graduations the pool looks pretty weak beyond the top 3 guys.

This pretty much sums up my issues with Dorion. Look, I'm happy with this off season for the most part, even though I think Dorion hasn't addressed the D, and his gamble on having Hamonic in the top 4 for most of the season is a risk not worth taking given we're kinda in a win now mode.

Arizona is in the same situation in Ottawa (and was) in terms of not wanting to have too much ojn their real money pay roll, yet they were able to ice a roster that is cheap in terms of salary, while still acquiring more picks than us. Most of it comes down to Dorion having poor judgement on pro rated NHL talent.

I think Colrado is more likely to win another SC or two before the Senators win a SC.

I am looking forward to this coming season and hope we make the playoffs but expect to be a bubble team and not make the playoffs. I hope Formenton is signed soon to complete the 3rd line.

I dunno man, I think Colorado is a contender this year, but if MacKinnon asks for $9+ million, I don't think they have the cap space for the forward depth they had last year. Plus they're a bit weak on the second line for C, and unless Newhook steps his game up quite a bit, their depth takes a big hit.

Having said that, Makar is a generational talent and I think we've yet to see his best.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Picking 16 times in the first 2 rounds over a 5 year span after a major rebuild isn't very impressive. That's only an average of around of a single extra 1st/2nd per year.

It's even more weak when you consider those picks were acquired during a complete tear down that involved elite players being traded like Karlsson, Stone and Duchene, as well as good players like Brassard, Pageau, Dzingel, etc... It would be shocking if we didn't have extra picks after doing a massive rebuild by trading those names.

While the returns on those players were mediocre at best

This is where you lost me…….

this is the “returns” (still with the Senators) from just one of “those players” as best I can think of now….

Josh Norris
Tim Stutzle
Mads Sogaard
Leevi Merilainen
Zack Ostapchuk

​

 

[milkbag]

A cup win doesn’t matter to me unless my team does it. I wouldn’t change this group for any group because a win wouldn’t mean anything to me under those circumstances.

This journey so far is exactly what makes a sports championship so sweet, otherwise it’s just meaningless to me, no story, no drama, no dues paid.

I want to see some magic, like the Hammond run, a started from the bottom now we’re here. To hear pundits begrudgingly talk about how awesome our squad has become.

As with most things it’s all about the journey for me.

I’ll say this though, despite differing opinions, this board doesn’t have bandwagoners, we’re all on this journey together no matter how we perceive the path.

What I REALLY want is for Bob Cole to come out of retirement and announce our games and sound audibly deflated when we body another original six team in the playoffs. That was glorious.

 

[Ice-Tray]

What I REALLY want is for Bob Cole to come out of retirement and announce our games and sound audibly deflated when we body another original six team in the playoffs. That was glorious.

The Senators player scorresssssss…..

 

[JD1]

The Senators player scorresssssss…..

I used to get a kick out of that...he never knew the names of our players

 

[DaveMatthew]

This is where you lost me…….

this is the “returns” (still with the Senators) from just one of “those players” as best I can think of now….

Josh Norris
Tim Stutzle
Mads Sogaard
Leevi Merilainen
William Stromgren

​

It breaks down like this:

Out	In
Erik Karlsson Mark Stone Matt Duchene Jean-Gabriel Pageau Derick Brassard Mike Hoffman Ryan Dzingel	Josh Norris Tim Stützle Zack Ostapchuk Mads Sogaard Leevi Merilainen Lassi Thomson Erik Brannstrom Egor Sokolov Ridly Greig Tyler Kleven Jacob Bernard-Docker Cam Talbot Phillipe Daoust

If you break down the trades individually, there are some criticisms you can definitely make (Stone for Brannstrom is turrible), but as a whole, it looks like we'll come out of it pretty well.

 

[Ice-Tray]

It breaks down like this:

Out	In
Erik Karlsson Mark Stone Matt Duchene Jean-Gabriel Pageau Derick Brassard Mike Hoffman Ryan Dzingel	Josh Norris Tim Stützle Zack Ostapchuk Mads Sogaard Leevi Merilainen Lassi Thomson Erik Brannstrom Egor Sokolov Ridly Greig Tyler Kleven Jacob Bernard-Docker Cam Talbot Phillipe Daoust

If you break down the trades individually, there are some criticisms you can definitely make, but as a whole, it looks like we'll come out of it pretty well.

Missing Sanderson in there, maybe more? Wasn’t Talbot a UFA signing?

 

[JD1]

Talbot was acquired for Gus who we got when Brassard went to Pittsburgh

I believe Sanderson was our own pick. It was the Stuetzle pick that was acquired

Missing Sanderson in there, maybe more? Wasn’t Talbot a UFA signing?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Missing Sanderson in there, maybe more? Wasn’t Talbot a UFA signing?

Sanderson was our own pick. The #5 wasn't involved in any trade.

Talbot was traded for Gustavsson, who we received in the Brassard deal.

 

[JD1]

Sanderson was our own pick. The #5 wasn't involved in any trade.

Talbot was traded for Gustavsson, who we received in the Brassard deal.

I read that somewhere before

 

[Hale The Villain]

It breaks down like this:

Out	In
Erik Karlsson Mark Stone Matt Duchene Jean-Gabriel Pageau Derick Brassard Mike Hoffman Ryan Dzingel	Josh Norris Tim Stützle Zack Ostapchuk Mads Sogaard Leevi Merilainen Lassi Thomson Erik Brannstrom Egor Sokolov Ridly Greig Tyler Kleven Jacob Bernard-Docker Cam Talbot Phillipe Daoust

If you break down the trades individually, there are some criticisms you can definitely make, but as a whole, it looks like we'll come out of it pretty well.

The Sharks pick lucking into Stutzle makes the overall return look a lot better than it was.

It's basically the thing that saved Dorion's job. If that pick ended up in the 10-30 range like expected that's a very underwhelming return for those players, who have obviously declined since the trades but at the time they were dealt were tremendously valuable pieces.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The Sharks pick lucking into Stutzle makes the overall return look a lot better than it was.

It's basically the thing that saved Dorion's job. If that pick ended up in the 10-30 range like expected that's a very underwhelming return for those players, who have obviously declined since the trades but at the time they were dealt were tremendously valuable pieces.

Sure, but there's an element of luck in every single trade, or every single move. Hell, we got lucky at the draft. The Habs taking Kotkaniemi and the Kings taking Byfield has turned out to be fantastic luck.

The Avs lucking into the #4 overall pick made the Duchene trade look a lot worse than it was at the time. If that pick ended up in the 15-30 range, as expected, that trade would have been fine, even for 1.5 years of Duchene.

But I'd argue that even if you removed the #3 pick, Karlsson for Norris, 1-1, would still look like a fantastic trade for Ottawa in hindsight.

And I think it's a stretch to say that all of those pieces were "tremendously valuable". Karlsson (although his value was hampered by the contract drama) and Stone were. Duchene to an extent. Pageau, Hoffman, Brassard and Dzingel though? I wouldn't say tremendously valuable, and we got good returns for all expect Hoffman, who also had a lot of drama associated with him.

The only trade, IMO, where we really dropped the ball was the Stone deal.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sure, but there's an element of luck in every single trade, or every single move.

The Avs lucking into the #4 overall pick made the Duchene trade look a lot worse than it was at the time. If that pick ended up in the 15-30 range, as expected, that trade would have been fine.

But I'd argue that even if you removed the #3 pick, Karlsson for Norris, 1-1, would still look like a fantastic trade for Ottawa in hindsight.

And I think it's a stretch to say that all of those pieces were "tremendously valuable". Karlsson (although his value was hampered by the contract drama) and Stone were. Duchene to an extent. Pageau, Hoffman, Brassard and Dzingel though? I wouldn't say tremendously valuable, and we got good returns for all expect Hoffman, who also had a lot of drama associated with him.

True, but you can't tell me many expected the Sharks, a team that had missed the playoffs only once in the 13 years since the lockout, to completely implode two years after the trade was made, largely due to injuries to their best players.

I would argue that there's a significant difference in luck between that and trading your own upcoming 1st round pick when your team has more losses than wins and having that continue to a more significant degree, but I understand the logic behind the comparison.

Looking strictly in hindsight isn't the proper way to evaluate trades, just as evaluating a trade solely based on how it looked at the time it was made is not correct. Have to look at both to be fair.

I think it's fair to say the return for Karlsson was underwhelming when it was made due to a lack of high-end pieces in exchange for one of the best D in the league, but also that Norris was a great bit of scouting and he has proven to be an excellent centerpiece. Karlsson imploding post-trade is irrelevant as the team didn't choose to trade him instead of re-signing him, rather Karlsson requested a trade and refused to re-sign.

I can't think of a single team in recent memory that engaged in a full tear-down rebuild that had the kind of talent to trade that the Sens did. Karlsson was a top 3 D in the league at the time he was dealt, Duchene and Stone were producing over a PPG when traded, Brassard had 38P/58GP (and an extra year on his deal at an attractive cap hit/salary), Pageau had 40P/60GP, and Dzingel had 44P/57GP. All of them deserved to return nice pieces after excellent play in the seasons they were traded.

The only trade where we got more value than should have been reasonably expected was Pageau. Brassard and Dzingel returns were fair. Karlsson, Stone and Duchene returns were disappointing. Hoffman return was embarrassing.

 

[DueDiligence]

The Sharks pick lucking into Stutzle makes the overall return look a lot better than it was.

It's basically the thing that saved Dorion's job. If that pick ended up in the 10-30 range like expected that's a very underwhelming return for those players, who have obviously declined since the trades but at the time they were dealt were tremendously valuable pieces.

That's true but so what? Maybe PD talked the Sharks out of it being top 10 protected. The reality is that they got the pick in a trade and it worked out well.

 

[Bevans]

That's true but so what? Maybe PD talked the Sharks out of it being top 10 protected. The reality is that they got the pick in a trade and it worked out well.

Is it true.

Norris alone for Karlsson is a huge win. Moreover, there were a ton of Great players that went outside the top 10 in 2020. It's not like this trade would be a disaster if Ottawa had Mercer or Schneider or Jarvis?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well its a good thing we did as well as we did with the Karlsson deal and had him to trade away. Hypothetically, if you remove that one trade entirely, we would be looking pretty lean right now and another year or two of stacking chips.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The only trade where we got more value than should have been reasonably expected was Pageau. Brassard and Dzingel returns were fair. Karlsson, Stone and Duchene returns were disappointing. Hoffman return was embarrassing.

Fans always inflate the value of their own players.

Karlsson was traded for:

- a 1st round pick + a conditional 1st round pick
- a prospect who was drafted in the 1st round the year prior
- two 2nd round picks
- a 23 year old center who had just scored 40 points in 82 games
- a 24 year old depth defenseman
- a B- level prospect who had a good year in the AHL

Yes, Karlsson was considered a top-end player at the time. But an objective observer would tell you that that was a fair return, if you strictly look at it from an asset perspective and remove all of the emotion around that entire situation.

Hell, look at what we just trade to acquire DeBrincat, a 24 year old 40 goal scorer. It was signifcantly less than what San Jose paid for Karlsson.

If Ekblad became available because he wanted out of Florida, would you say this is a fair offer? 2023 1st + 2024 conditional 1st + 2023 2nd + 2024 2nd + Ridly Greig + Mathieu Joseph + Erik Brannstrom + Egor Sokolov.

Is that way too low?

On the others:

Duchene made it clear he was going to UFA. And it was obvious he wanted to be in Nashville. As a pure rental, that's what you'd expect for a return.

The Stone return was brutal, agreed.

Hoffman? I think most teams saw him as a flawed player with a bad attitude. Bad return, yes, because Boedker was useless, but I don't think he had much value.

But we got more than fair value for Pageau and Brassard.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Fans always inflate the value of their own players.

Karlsson was traded for:

- a 1st round pick + a conditional 1st
- a prospect who was drafted in the 1st round the year prior
- two 2nd round picks
- a 23 year old center who had just scored 40 points in 82 games
- a 24 year old depth defenseman

Yes, Karlsson was considered a top-end player at the time. But an objective observer would tell you that that was a fair return, if you strictly look at it from an asset perspective and remove all of the emotion around that entire situation.

Hell, look at what we just trade to acquire DeBrincat, a 24 year old 40 goal scorer. It was signifcantly less than what San Jose paid for Karlsson.

If Ekblad became available, would you say this is a fair offer? 2023 1st + 2024 conditional 1st + 2023 2nd + 2024 2nd + Ridly Greig + Mathiey Joseph + Erik Brannstrom.

Is that way too low?

On the others:

Duchene made it clear he was going to UFA. And it was obvious he wanted to be in Nashville. As a pure rental, that's what you'd expect for a return.

The Stone return was brutal, agreed.

Hoffman? I think most teams saw him as a flawed player with a bad attitude. Bad return, yes, because Boedker was useless, but I don't think he had much value.

But we got more than fair value for Pageau and Brassard.

Everyone on HF thought it was an underpayment. Bunch of secondary pieces for a two time Norris winner.

Read through what other team's fans thought of the return if you want an objective take:

Confirmed Trade: - [OTT/SJ] Erik Karlsson and Francis Perron for Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd, cdnl picks

Omg FLEEECED wow melnyk

forums.hfboards.com

I'd easily make that trade for Ekblad if given the opportunity, and he's nowhere close to the quality of D that Karlsson was at the time of the trade.

Abramov, Davidsson and a mid-late 1st (Thomson) is a laughable return for a guy who was a PPG+ center when traded
Hoffman was traded for a cap dump in Boedker and then the Sharks immediately dealt him to Florida for a 2nd+, was embarassing
Late 1st + Gustavsson + 3rd was decent for Brassard. People only thought it was a great return because they ignored he wasn't a rental.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Everyone on HF thought it was an underpayment. Bunch of secondary pieces for a two time Norris winner.

Read through what other team's fans thought of the return if you want an objective take:

Confirmed Trade: - [OTT/SJ] Erik Karlsson and Francis Perron for Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd, cdnl picks

Omg FLEEECED wow melnyk

forums.hfboards.com

I'd easily make that trade for Ekblad if given the opportunity, and he's nowhere close to the quality of D that Karlsson was at the time of the trade.

Abramov, Davidsson and a mid-late 1st (Thomson) is a laughable return for a guy who was a PPG+ center when traded
Hoffman was traded for a cap dump in Boedker and then the Sharks immediately dealt him to Florida for a 2nd+, was embarassing
Late 1st + Gustavsson + 3rd was decent for Brassard. People only thought it was a great return because they ignored he wasn't a rental.

Again, you're overrating the value of Ottawa's players, disregarding what trade prices typically are, and ignoring all other circumstances around the trade. What fans on HFBoards think isn't what a player's value is. Fans on HFBoards are routinely wrong about value every single time trades happen. Trade deadline day is hilarious for that very reason. "WHAT!? We got a 2nd instead of a 1st and your team's best prospect!?"

Compare the Karlsson return to all other "star" player trades over the last 10 years, and it's easy to see that we got a very good package back. Obviously, there was so much emotion around that entire situation (fans weren't upset just that Karlsson was being traded, it was peak Melnyk dysfunction at the time which compounded the anger exponentially).

But from a pure asset perspective, Karlsson was a 27-year-old, coming off a down year, who already had 2 major career-impacting injuries, looking to sign an 8-year deal at $10M+ per season with a select group of teams. The talk of "Heiskanen +" was peak fan fiction and delusion.

Duchene was a trade deadline rental. A 1st round pick + prospects is what you get for trade deadline rentals.

Hoffman wasn't great. I certainly would have preferred the 2nd over Boedker. Stone was bad.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Again, you're overrating the value of Ottawa's players, disregarding what trade prices typically are, and ignoring all other circumstances around the trade. What fans on HFBoards think isn't what a player's value is. Fans on HFBoards are routinely wrong about value every single time trades happen. Trade deadline day is hilarious for that very reason. "WHAT!? We got a 2nd instead of a 1st and your team's best prospect!?"

Compare the Karlsson return to all other "star" player trades over the last 10 years, and it's easy to see that we got a very good package back. Obviously, there was so much emotion around that entire situation (fans weren't upset just that Karlsson was being traded, it was peak Melnyk dysfunction at the time which compounded the anger exponentially).

But from a pure asset perspective, Karlsson was a 27-year-old, coming off a down year, who already had 2 major career-impacting injuries, looking to sign an 8-year deal at $10M+ per season with a select group of teams. The talk of "Heiskanen +" was peak fan fiction and delusion.

Duchene was a trade deadline rental. A 1st round pick + prospects is what you get for trade deadline rentals.

Hoffman wasn't great. I certainly would have preferred the 2nd over Boedker. Stone was bad.

I find that individual team's fans do tend to overrate the value of their own team's players, and HF as a whole does tend to overrate the value of star players, but the return was pretty much universally thought of as a bad both by Sens fans and objective observers as well for the reason that there was a lot of quantity in the deal but little quality.

At the time of the trade it was a poor return, in hindsight it was an excellent return, making it a bit of a mixed bag. That is to say we're extremely happy with how it worked out with Norris and Stutzle being our top 2 centers, but ideally it would have been even better had we gotten another quality piece or two instead of a bunch of quantity.

 

[DueDiligence]

Well its a good thing we did as well as we did with the Karlsson deal and had him to trade away. Hypothetically, if you remove that one trade entirely, we would be looking pretty lean right now and another year or two of stacking chips.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. If Andrew Hammond doesn't play like Hasek in the 2014-15 season the Sens would have missed the playoffs and could have walked away with a Marner, Hanifan or Rantanen at the draft. It works both ways.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I find that individual team's fans do tend to overrate the value of their own team's players, and HF as a whole does tend to overrate the value of star players, but the return was pretty much universally thought of as a bad both by Sens fans and objective observers as well for the reason that there was a lot of quantity in the deal but little quality.

At the time of the trade it was a poor return, in hindsight it was an excellent return, making it a bit of a mixed bag. That is to say we're extremely happy with how it worked out with Norris and Stutzle being our top 2 centers, but ideally it would have been even better had we gotten another quality piece or two instead of a bunch of quantity.

A lot of the "quantity not quality" had to do with the fact that Norris was drafted by San Jose (a team no one in Canada pays attention to) and played in the NCAA (a league no one in Canada pays attention to). So he didn't jump off the page as 'quality" because no one cared to learn who he was. Dorion's "Brady's best friend" comment didn't help.

If it had been Robert Thomas in the trade (the player drafted right after Norris in 2017) instead, fans would have thought they got a "high-end piece" back because they would have been familiar with Thomas' play in London.

But the two were the same calibre of prospect. So it was a perception problem, not an actual problem.

I bet if we went out and acquired a high-end D, but traded Pinto, it would be a similar reaction. Sens fans would know they gave up a high-quality player, but fans of other teams would say, "who?" until Pinto became a 60 point Selke calibre center in 2 years.

In the end, I think the entire Karlsson situation in 17-18 was handled horribly. Everything from Dorion's "even Gretzky got traded" comment, to publicly leaking that he asked for his no-trade-list, to the "we made a contract offer" in the summer. It was a masterclass on what not to do. But the actual return? That was fine. If we had had a GM and owner that wasn't as incompetent in front of a microphone, I don't think there would have been as much anger over the trade.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. If Andrew Hammond doesn't play like Hasek in the 2014-15 season the Sens would have missed the playoffs and could have walked away with a Marner, Hanifan or Rantanen at the draft. It works both ways.

Oh for sure, it is just amazing how much that one deal contributes to the overall picture of the rebuild and just how bleak it could be without it. Probably more value to the rebuild than all the others traded away combined.