Friedman: Gibson is interested in Carolina, or Edmonton

[Static]

Top 10 overall this year

Hah! This is very funny to frame this as derogatory.

You don't want him, that's cool, but the reasoning (wins? only top 10?) is extremely weird.

 

[Static]

Also very funny to reference that list to see where Edmonton's current goaltenders sit (61st, 75th). Eesh. They could probably use an upgrade!

 

[BlueSeal]

Hah! This is very funny to frame this as derogatory.

You don't want him, that's cool, but the reasoning (wins? only top 10?) is extremely weird.

It's a joke because he's only won nine games this year. So yes, ONLY top 10?

He's 9-9-2 which is 42nd best this year.

I mean you posted the link to respond to my post which... kind of proves my point more than whatever it was that you were presenting. Truth to be told, if the Oilers are hunting for netminding and are spending assets that the Ducks will demand for Gibson... get the real thing now. Gibson was that... 5-7 years ago.

 

[Static]

It's a joke because he's only won nine games this year. So yes, ONLY top 10?

I don't think you understand how impressive this is. To be top 10 in that goaltending statistic with so few wins implies how bad the team has been around him and he has excelled despite that.

To use it as some sort of demerit fundamentally misunderstands the relationship between the two metrics. I'm sure you're joking though. Or just asking questions.

 

[BlueSeal]

I don't think you understand how impressive this is. To be top 10 in a goaltending metric with so few wins implies how bad the team has been around him and he has excelled despite that.

To use it as some sort of demerit fundamentally misunderstands the relationship between the two metrics. I'm sure you're joking though. Or just asking questions.

That's for this year and that number could easily plummet to what last year's was by the end of the season. Over the past 5 years he's been at or sub .900 and allowing roughly 3 goals per game. Mind that I think Gibson is great but the time for him being that netminder is slipping from him and the Ducks have no interest in moving him as if they have a shot at making the playoffs and are stuck pre-2018 or they want the moon for him with his M-NTC contract. Acquiring him could easily be a 'Ryan Miller to the Blues' kind of situation and I'm still having nightmares about that to this day, even with a Cup.

 

[Ducks DVM]

23 GP and has only won 9. Yeahhh, I'd keep Skinner. If you're spending the kind of assets that Anaheim would want for him, I'd get another legit top Dman or a finisher that can help McDavid over a netminder.

Since we are looking at team stats

Average Goals For
Talbot : 2.98 (19th for goalies >=20GP)
Gibson : 2.32 (45th for goalies >=20GP)

There are only 3 goalies who’ve been in 20+ games that get less goal support than Gibson does. Wins are a team stat.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Yeah see we just will have to agree to disagree. Gibson had one terrible season (last year) and otherwise has pretty much always been the same goalie, with his numbers being aligned with what's in front him. Putting up a .900 SV% in 50+ games behind the worst team of the modern era, was an accomplishment. There are goalies who struggle to put up those numbers on good teams. No one around the game has ever been as down on him as people who just glance at stats and don't apply context. NHL execs still voted him a top 15 goalie just a year ago. You saying he's had poor value for years is just an opinion and I don't believe it's actually shared around the league.

Now what is shared around the league (except in Edmonton, or at least by the media and his cult) is, to quote the article below, "It’s not that Stuart Skinner is a terrible goaltender, it’s just that he’s an average goaltender potentially holding back the ambitions of one of the best teams in the league."

Ranking the NHL's 32 Starting Goalies – Midseason Update - The Hockey Writers NHL Goaltending Latest News, Analysis & More

The 2024-25 NHL season has as strong a group of goaltenders as ever before, but who takes the cake as the cream of the crop?

thehockeywriters.com

As the name implies, it's a ranking of the league's 32 starters. Guess where Skinner finished? 26th

The only goalies behind him were on non-playoff teams. One of them was just put on waivers (and has the same goalie coach as Stu...). Even former Oiler Cam Talbot finished higher...

 

[TFHockey]

Arvidsson has looked pretty bad compared to his years prior, he’s fast approaching as a cap dump player, not one that holds value. He’s also not a good fit for the Ducks current group of forwards. The basis of Gibson for Arvidsson is likely easily beat by Carolina.

Gibson ultimately can steer the ship to where he prefers to get traded, but let’s not act like he’s a complete cap dump. He had some terrible numbers on a bottom feeding team but he’s showing this year that he can still play at an above average level with a decent team and the highest profile goalie potentially available.

There it is.

Gibson, a guy who has been terrible in previous seasons and is signed at $6.4 Million for multiple years is getting a 1st, but Ardvisson, who has multiple good seasons and isn't performing as well this year is a cap dump. NO value.

Can you see why these conversations are frustrating? I mean, we're all homers on these boards but there should be some degree of realism.

Ardvisson might not fit what the Ducks are after. Okay, fair enough.

I'll bow to the superior knowledge of Anaheim fans as to what that team needs.

But endlessly bashing every Oiler player has got to get tiresome.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Still don't think the Oilers really have anything the Ducks want. Gibson's past 5 years of slow decline raise too many red flags. If they have him and Skinner together at least that's a decent tandem but it sounds like Gibson doesn't want that so... thanks, John. We gave you a playoff series win in 2017 and this is how you thank us?

 

[Stephen]

The Ducks really need to set Gibson free so he can finally get a chance to compete for that 2021 Stanley Cup.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah see we just will have to agree to disagree. Gibson had one terrible season (last year) and otherwise has pretty much always been the same goalie, with his numbers being aligned with what's in front him. Putting up a .900 SV% in 50+ games behind the worst team of the modern era, was an accomplishment. There are goalies who struggle to put up those numbers on good teams. No one around the game has ever been as down on him as people who just glance at stats and don't apply context. NHL execs still voted him a top 15 goalie just a year ago. You saying he's had poor value for years is just an opinion and I don't believe it's actually shared around the league.

That's all fair as well, although Gibson's play has been down for more than one season, and I think most would agree with that, regardless of the quality of the team in front of him. His resurgence this year is the reason anyone would be interested at all. I don't think it would put his value at the height it was before his numerous down seasons.

I think the key is that it doesn't really matter what his value is outside of what his value is to Pat Verbeek. Verbeek doesn't need to cave on his demands if he wants a 1st and a prospect and more if there is cap going back and retention. And if he decides to keep him until the right deal comes along, that's fair too. All I am suggesting, is that Verbeek's value for Gibson isn't necessarily in line with the demand for goalies around the league. If he would rather keep him than move on his asking price, that's fine, but I suspect in that scenario, he ends up keeping him.

 

[Ducks DVM]

There it is.

Gibson, a guy who has been terrible in previous seasons and is signed at $6.4 Million for multiple years is getting a 1st, but Ardvisson, who has multiple good seasons and isn't performing as well this year is a cap dump. NO value.

Can you see why these conversations are frustrating? I mean, we're all homers on these boards but there should be some degree of realism.

Ardvisson might not fit what the Ducks are after. Okay, fair enough.

I'll bow to the superior knowledge of Anaheim fans as to what that team needs.

But endlessly bashing every Oiler player has got to get tiresome.

Arvidsson had back surgery last year, had to go on IR this year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is producing like Fabbri. He is absolutely not an attractive piece as a trade target. The risk associated with him is substantially higher than the risk associated with Gibson, both for future injuries, and the likelihood of actually returning to form.

Would you make the trade if the situations were reversed?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

That's all fair as well, although Gibson's play has been down for more than one season, and I think most would agree with that, regardless of the quality of the team in front of him. His resurgence this year is the reason anyone would be interested at all. I don't think it would put his value at the height it was before his numerous down seasons.

I think the key is that it doesn't really matter what his value is outside of what his value is to Pat Verbeek. Verbeek doesn't need to cave on his demands if he wants a 1st and a prospect and more if there is cap going back and retention. And if he decides to keep him until the right deal comes along, that's fair too. All I am suggesting, is that Verbeek's value for Gibson isn't necessarily in line with the demand for goalies around the league. If he would rather keep him than move on his asking price, that's fine, but I suspect in that scenario, he ends up keeping him.

I don't think most who actually watch the Ducks would agree with that. The notion that he's had several down years is based on other fans peaking at stats and not putting them in proper context. All those recent years where he hovered around a .900 SV%, were not down years to anyone paying close attention. They appear to be down years statistically but he did not underperform any reasonable expectations. Your #1 ranked goalie on earth would have struggled to maintain a .910 with a starters workload behind these historically terrible Ducks teams. There's a reason he kept popping in trade rumors, teams remained interested because they know he can be better than his stats would suggest.

 

[TFHockey]

Arvidsson had back surgery last year, had to go on IR this year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is producing like Fabbri. He is absolutely not an attractive piece as a trade target. The risk associated with him is substantially higher than the risk associated with Gibson, both for future injuries, and the likelihood of actually returning to form.

Would you make the trade if the situations were reversed?

That's a great question. It's harder for me to see this from the Ducks perspective. 100% true. I conceded earlier that maybe Ardvisson isn't the right fit for the ducks. I would also point out I wasn't the one who suggested it.

However, saying Ardvisson isn't what the Ducks want back for Gibson is a far cry from calling Ardvisson a cap dump.

The perspective from Edmonton is that Ardvisson isn't performing like the Oilers want but is heads and tails better than an actual cap dump like Jeff Skinner. He shows real flashes of the player that burned the Oilers so many times in the past. He looked pretty good last night playing for Sweden in the Four Nations tournament. How many cap dumps are playing in that?

That is something for Duck fans to consider.

If the trade offer was J. Skinner for Gibson and someone called the Oilers piece a cap dump you'd get no argument from anyone. Well... I guess that isn't true. Someone would argue he isn't. This is the HF boards after all.

So I guess my point through all of this is Gibson gets a pass for previous seasons with poor numbers and is worth a lot in trade. Some Duck fans insist it's a 1st, the Oilers don't have the trade pieces to get it done at all, etc.

However Ardvisson who has had multiple good seasons, isn't playing up to those previous season but IS contributing in a top six role AND playing in the Star studded Four Nations Cup, is a worthless cap dump.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

That's a great question. It's harder for me to see this from the Ducks perspective. 100% true. I conceded earlier that maybe Ardvisson isn't the right fit for the ducks. I would also point out I wasn't the one who suggested it.

However, saying Ardvisson isn't what the Ducks want back for Gibson is a far cry from calling Ardvisson a cap dump.

The perspective from Edmonton is that Ardvisson isn't performing like the Oilers want but is heads and tails better than an actual cap dump like Jeff Skinner. He shows real flashes of the player that burned the Oilers so many times in the past. He looked pretty good last night playing for Sweden in the Four Nations tournament. How many cap dumps are playing in that?

That is something for Duck fans to consider.

If the trade offer was J. Skinner for Gibson and someone called the Oilers piece a cap dump you'd get no argument from anyone. Well... I guess that isn't true. Someone would argue he isn't. This is the HF boards after all.

So I guess my point through all of this is Gibson gets a pass for previous seasons with poor numbers and is worth a lot in trade. Some Duck fans insist it's a 1st, the Oilers don't have the trade pieces to get it done at all, etc.

However Ardvisson who has had multiple good seasons, isn't playing up to those previous season but IS contributing in a top six role AND playing in the Star studded Four Nations Cup, is a worthless cap dump.

Arvidsson would be a cap dump in the context of the deal proposed. He's not someone the Ducks are going to pursue. His only purpose in this deal would be to help the Oilers afford Gibson.

He may not universally have zero or negative value, but in the context of this deal he would.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Arvidsson would be a cap dump in the context of the deal proposed. He's not someone the Ducks are going to pursue. His only purpose in this deal would be to help the Oilers afford Gibson.

He may not universally have zero or negative value, but in the context of this deal he would.

Lmao Ducks fans are wilding.

20 goal, 50 point winger with two years left at $4M- cap dump

Goaltender who hasn’t had a winning record or GAA under 2.5 since 2019 with three years left at $6.4M- valued asset

 

[TFHockey]

Arvidsson would be a cap dump in the context of the deal proposed. He's not someone the Ducks are going to pursue. His only purpose in this deal would be to help the Oilers afford Gibson.

He may not universally have zero or negative value, but in the context of this deal he would.

If Ardvisson has zero value to Anaheim, so be it.

Asking for a 1st from Edmonton for Gibson, in that context of that kind of trade, makes zero sense for the Oilers. That is a gross overpayment.

The Ducks are not in a position to ask for an overpayment for Gibson. His contract cost, length of said contract, and modified no trade clause (10 teams) all handcuffs the Ducks when it comes to his trade value.

 

[FiveTacos]

That's for this year and that number could easily plummet to what last year's was by the end of the season. Over the past 5 years he's been at or sub .900 and allowing roughly 3 goals per game.

Again, he's played behind one of the worst defensive teams ever. And one that couldn't score much either.

Consider that even this year, they're still one of the worst 5v5 teams in the league ... and it's a noticeable improvement. That's how bad it was. And yet, just finally being within the normal range of bad instead of epic-level bad, his numbers have recovered.

It's like Fowler ... He was looking pretty rough the last few years, not because he sucked but because he was being put in a 1D role surrounded by what was at times 5 AHL caliber blueliners. He's so obviously looking better on a team where he's not expected to play over his head.

Gibson has been essentially tasked with trying to hold up behind the worst defense in NHL history. In NHL history. That is not an exaggeration. And now the moment they start to claw back to NHL level defense, he looks good again. It's not a coincidence.

The young D pipeline is just starting to pay dividends, the situation could/should continue to improve. It is not a crazy scenario where the Ducks' defense becomes really good in the next couple seasons, and his numbers continue to rise. Meanwhile goalie salaries continue climbing, the cap goes up, and all of a sudden Gibson with even 25% retention is essentially a low salary with no long term attached. In that situation he becomes a prime option for a playoff team that needs a goalie.

Worst case, the recovery is temporary, so instead of selling low now they sell low later. No big loss.

Mind that I think Gibson is great but the time for him being that netminder is slipping from him and the Ducks have no interest in moving him as if they have a shot at making the playoffs and are stuck pre-2018

Just because you're not in the playoffs doesn't mean you just cast him aside. What purpose does it serve to trade him for something that doesn't do anything for them? Cap space is not a problem. Salary isn't a problem (in fact keeping up with the floor is).

It's not that different from the Strome trade thread ... It's not that he's worth a ton, but the problem is what they could get for him won't change their long term outlook, and would definitely hurt them short term. If someone offers something really good then sure ... But if it's like a 3rd or 4th, the gain isn't worth the loss. Cap floor means they'd have to spend the money anyway, so there's no money savings. Having to retain plus pay for a replacement also means they likely end up with a downgrade at the same cost.

or they want the moon for him with his M-NTC contract.

He's all but sure to waive for any decent destination, that's largely irrelevant.

So I guess my point through all of this is Gibson gets a pass for previous seasons with poor numbers and is worth a lot in trade. Some Duck fans insist it's a 1st, the Oilers don't have the trade pieces to get it done at all, etc.

I think you're misunderstanding the argument. It's not that Ducks fans feel Gibson is necessarily worth that much on the trade market. It's that if he's worth too little on the trade market, then his value to the Ducks on ice in the now is probably higher. What's a quality replacement backup gonna cost them? A mid round pick? Then there's certainly no net gain for selling Gibson for the same.

 

[TFHockey]

Again, he's played behind one of the worst defensive teams ever. And one that couldn't score much either.

Consider that even this year, they're still one of the worst 5v5 teams in the league ... and it's a noticeable improvement. That's how bad it was. And yet, just finally being within the normal range of bad instead of epic-level bad, his numbers have recovered.

It's like Fowler ... He was looking pretty rough the last few years, not because he sucked but because he was being put in a 1D role surrounded by what was at times 5 AHL caliber blueliners. He's so obviously looking better on a team where he's not expected to play over his head.

Gibson has been essentially tasked with trying to hold up behind the worst defense in NHL history. In NHL history. That is not an exaggeration. And now the moment they start to claw back to NHL level defense, he looks good again. It's not a coincidence.

The young D pipeline is just starting to pay dividends, the situation could/should continue to improve. It is not a crazy scenario where the Ducks' defense becomes really good in the next couple seasons, and his numbers continue to rise. Meanwhile goalie salaries continue climbing, the cap goes up, and all of a sudden Gibson with even 25% retention is essentially a low salary with no long term attached. In that situation he becomes a prime option for a playoff team that needs a goalie.

Worst case, the recovery is temporary, so instead of selling low now they sell low later. No big loss.



Just because you're not in the playoffs doesn't mean you just cast him aside. What purpose does it serve to trade him for something that doesn't do anything for them? Cap space is not a problem. Salary isn't a problem (in fact keeping up with the floor is).

It's not that different from the Strome trade thread ... It's not that he's worth a ton, but the problem is what they could get for him won't change their long term outlook, and would definitely hurt them short term. If someone offers something really good then sure ... But if it's like a 3rd or 4th, the gain isn't worth the loss. Cap floor means they'd have to spend the money anyway, so there's no money savings. Having to retain plus pay for a replacement also means they likely end up with a downgrade at the same cost.



He's all but sure to waive for any decent destination, that's largely irrelevant.



I think you're misunderstanding the argument. It's not that Ducks fans feel Gibson is necessarily worth that much on the trade market. It's that if he's worth too little on the trade market, then his value to the Ducks on ice in the now is probably higher. What's a quality replacement backup gonna cost them? A mid round pick? Then there's certainly no net gain for selling Gibson for the same.

That's a pretty rational take.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If Ardvisson has zero value to Anaheim, so be it.

Asking for a 1st from Edmonton for Gibson, in that context of that kind of trade, makes zero sense for the Oilers. That is a gross overpayment.

The Ducks are not in a position to ask for an overpayment for Gibson. His contract cost, length of said contract, and modified no trade clause (10 teams) all handcuffs the Ducks when it comes to his trade value.

Were actually very much in position to ask for an over payment.

 

[FiveTacos]

That's a pretty rational take.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Arvidsson had back surgery last year, had to go on IR this year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is producing like Fabbri. He is absolutely not an attractive piece as a trade target. The risk associated with him is substantially higher than the risk associated with Gibson, both for future injuries, and the likelihood of actually returning to form.

Would you make the trade if the situations were reversed?

I certainly wouldn't entertain Arvidsson for Gibson 1 for 1 if that's what you are asking, but if the rest of the deal made sense in terms of picks and prospects heading to Anaheim, I would take on Arvidsson to make the money work. It all depends on what the other pieces involved are. Anaheim isn't tight to the cap, Arvidsson isn't signed long term, and he would get the Ducks back a pick or two a year from now. He's certainly not a negative value asset.

 

[MessierThanThou]

If Ardvisson has zero value to Anaheim, so be it.

Asking for a 1st from Edmonton for Gibson, in that context of that kind of trade, makes zero sense for the Oilers. That is a gross overpayment.

If they retain 50% and Gibson comes in at $3.2 million, that's 100% worth a first. And more.

There it is.

Gibson, a guy who has been terrible in previous seasons and is signed at $6.4 Million for multiple years is getting a 1st, but Ardvisson, who has multiple good seasons and isn't performing as well this year is a cap dump. NO value.

Can you see why these conversations are frustrating? I mean, we're all homers on these boards but there should be some degree of realism.

Ardvisson might not fit what the Ducks are after. Okay, fair enough.

I'll bow to the superior knowledge of Anaheim fans as to what that team needs.

But endlessly bashing every Oiler player has got to get tiresome.

Sorry, but using hyperbole like "bashing every Oiler player" reeks of homerism. Yesterday's price is not today's price. Gibson is playing great right now, Arvidsson is not. Skinner stans have been doing this too, comparing Skinner's last two years of play to Gibson's, totally forgetting that none of that matters, because as of this season Gibson is much, much better by every measure.

Where as last year the Oilers couldn't get enough assets to touch Gibson's contract, now his $6 million contract looks reasonable (if we weren't cash-strapped) while Arvidsson putting up Yamamoto numbers with Draisaitl for $4 million would come off as a cap dump in this deal. No way Anaheim sees him as someone worth two thirds of Gibson's contract right now.

I certainly wouldn't entertain Arvidsson for Gibson 1 for 1 if that's what you are asking, but if the rest of the deal made sense in terms of picks and prospects heading to Anaheim, I would take on Arvidsson to make the money work. It all depends on what the other pieces involved are. Anaheim isn't tight to the cap, Arvidsson isn't signed long term, and he would get the Ducks back a pick or two a year from now. He's certainly not a negative value asset.

Arvidsson is looking like a third-line player while sharing lots of minutes with the league's leading goal scorer and a top point producer. He was brought in for his offence and is on pace for 36 points if playing a full 82-game season.

You might think he's worth a lot because he plays in Edmonton and that's your team, but take off the homer-coloured glasses and realize that the other teams, much like they see Skinner as one of the worst starters in the league, likely see Arvidsson as small, injury-prone, on the wrong side of 30, and losing his scoring touch. He might be of value to a playoff team for depth. Anaheim is not that kind of team right now.

 

[TFHockey]

If they retain 50% and Gibson comes in at $3.2 million, that's 100% worth a first. And more.



Sorry, but using hyperbole like "bashing every Oiler player" reeks of homerism. Yesterday's price is not today's price. Gibson is playing great right now, Arvidsson is not. Skinner stans have been doing this too, comparing Skinner's last two years of play to Gibson's, totally forgetting that none of that matters, because as of this season Gibson is much, much better by every measure.

Where as last year the Oilers couldn't get enough assets to touch Gibson's contract, now his $6 million contract looks reasonable (if we weren't cash-strapped) while Arvidsson putting up Yamamoto numbers with Draisaitl for $4 million would come off as a cap dump in this deal. No way Anaheim sees him as someone worth two thirds of Gibson's contract right now.



Arvidsson is looking like a third-line player while sharing lots of minutes with the league's leading goal scorer and a top point producer. He was brought in for his offence and is on pace for 36 points if playing a full 82-game season.

You might think he's worth a lot because he plays in Edmonton and that's your team, but take off the homer-coloured glasses and realize that the other teams, much like they see Skinner as one of the worst starters in the league, likely see Arvidsson as small, injury-prone, on the wrong side of 30, and losing his scoring touch. He might be of value to a playoff team for depth. Anaheim is not that kind of team right now.

Take a look at that members posts on other Oiler threads and you'll see what I am taking about. I stand by that statement.

We don't agree on Ardvisson's value. That's perfectly okay.

Everyone on this board is a bit of a homer. Gibson is playing well *right now* but you can't ignore what he has done in previous seasons. Multiple seasons. Now he is worth an overpay? Who is really the homer in this scenario?

Just blaming the team in front of Gibson is a bit reductive. It's factor but it isn't the whole story is it? After all, even Duck fans admit Gibson quits when he realizes the team isn't playing well and the game is all but lost.

That's their interpretation, not mine.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Take a look at that members posts on other Oiler threads and you'll see what I am taking about. I stand by that statement.

We don't agree on Ardvisson's value. That's perfectly okay.

Everyone on this board is a bit of a homer. Gibson is playing well *right now* but you can't ignore what he has done in previous seasons. Multiple seasons. Now he is worth an overpay? Who is really the homer in this scenario?

Just blaming the team in front of Gibson is a bit reductive. It's factor but it isn't the whole story is it? After all, even Duck fans admit Gibson quits when he realizes the team isn't playing well and the game is all but lost.

That's their interpretation, not mine.

I'm an Oilers fan and I would love to see us get Gibson at a discount and shed Arvidsson's salary. It's not happening. At least in the same deal. And no, it's not a case of us disagreeing over his value, it's a case of most people outside of the Edmonton bubble disagreeing with your perception of his value. His sole value is his scoring ability and that has greatly diminished. Other than that, he's small and injury-prone, and definitely not worth $4 million right now. Because, again, yesterday's price is not today's price. His playoff numbers are good though, so I'd rather just wait and see what he does then. But Anaheim isn't making the playoffs and he certainly doesn't look like he'd help them get there.

And if you don't want to ignore what Gibson has done in previous seasons then how about when he led the Ducks to beat our team in 2017 and take them to the Western Conference Finals? And he didn't do it behind star players putting up Gretzky-like numbers or put up the worst save percentage of any cap-era goalie to win a series or take a two-game vacation because he couldn't outplay an AHL goalie and had to be replaced by a guy who was an AHL goalie mid-career only months earlier.