Friedman: Gibson is interested in Carolina, or Edmonton

[Static]

Top 10 overall this year

Hah! This is very funny to frame this as derogatory.

You don't want him, that's cool, but the reasoning (wins? only top 10?) is extremely weird.

 

[Static]

Also very funny to reference that list to see where Edmonton's current goaltenders sit (61st, 75th). Eesh. They could probably use an upgrade!

 

[BlueSeal]

Hah! This is very funny to frame this as derogatory.

You don't want him, that's cool, but the reasoning (wins? only top 10?) is extremely weird.

It's a joke because he's only won nine games this year. So yes, ONLY top 10?

He's 9-9-2 which is 42nd best this year.

I mean you posted the link to respond to my post which... kind of proves my point more than whatever it was that you were presenting. Truth to be told, if the Oilers are hunting for netminding and are spending assets that the Ducks will demand for Gibson... get the real thing now. Gibson was that... 5-7 years ago.

 

[Static]

It's a joke because he's only won nine games this year. So yes, ONLY top 10?

I don't think you understand how impressive this is. To be top 10 in that goaltending statistic with so few wins implies how bad the team has been around him and he has excelled despite that.

To use it as some sort of demerit fundamentally misunderstands the relationship between the two metrics. I'm sure you're joking though. Or just asking questions.

 

[BlueSeal]

I don't think you understand how impressive this is. To be top 10 in a goaltending metric with so few wins implies how bad the team has been around him and he has excelled despite that.

To use it as some sort of demerit fundamentally misunderstands the relationship between the two metrics. I'm sure you're joking though. Or just asking questions.

That's for this year and that number could easily plummet to what last year's was by the end of the season. Over the past 5 years he's been at or sub .900 and allowing roughly 3 goals per game. Mind that I think Gibson is great but the time for him being that netminder is slipping from him and the Ducks have no interest in moving him as if they have a shot at making the playoffs and are stuck pre-2018 or they want the moon for him with his M-NTC contract. Acquiring him could easily be a 'Ryan Miller to the Blues' kind of situation and I'm still having nightmares about that to this day, even with a Cup.

 

[Ducks DVM]

23 GP and has only won 9. Yeahhh, I'd keep Skinner. If you're spending the kind of assets that Anaheim would want for him, I'd get another legit top Dman or a finisher that can help McDavid over a netminder.

Since we are looking at team stats

Average Goals For
Talbot : 2.98 (19th for goalies >=20GP)
Gibson : 2.32 (45th for goalies >=20GP)

There are only 3 goalies who’ve been in 20+ games that get less goal support than Gibson does. Wins are a team stat.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Yeah see we just will have to agree to disagree. Gibson had one terrible season (last year) and otherwise has pretty much always been the same goalie, with his numbers being aligned with what's in front him. Putting up a .900 SV% in 50+ games behind the worst team of the modern era, was an accomplishment. There are goalies who struggle to put up those numbers on good teams. No one around the game has ever been as down on him as people who just glance at stats and don't apply context. NHL execs still voted him a top 15 goalie just a year ago. You saying he's had poor value for years is just an opinion and I don't believe it's actually shared around the league.

Now what is shared around the league (except in Edmonton, or at least by the media and his cult) is, to quote the article below, "It’s not that Stuart Skinner is a terrible goaltender, it’s just that he’s an average goaltender potentially holding back the ambitions of one of the best teams in the league."

Ranking the NHL's 32 Starting Goalies – Midseason Update - The Hockey Writers NHL Goaltending Latest News, Analysis & More

The 2024-25 NHL season has as strong a group of goaltenders as ever before, but who takes the cake as the cream of the crop?

thehockeywriters.com

As the name implies, it's a ranking of the league's 32 starters. Guess where Skinner finished? 26th

The only goalies behind him were on non-playoff teams. One of them was just put on waivers (and has the same goalie coach as Stu...). Even former Oiler Cam Talbot finished higher...

 

[TFHockey]

Arvidsson has looked pretty bad compared to his years prior, he’s fast approaching as a cap dump player, not one that holds value. He’s also not a good fit for the Ducks current group of forwards. The basis of Gibson for Arvidsson is likely easily beat by Carolina.

Gibson ultimately can steer the ship to where he prefers to get traded, but let’s not act like he’s a complete cap dump. He had some terrible numbers on a bottom feeding team but he’s showing this year that he can still play at an above average level with a decent team and the highest profile goalie potentially available.

There it is.

Gibson, a guy who has been terrible in previous seasons and is signed at $6.4 Million for multiple years is getting a 1st, but Ardvisson, who has multiple good seasons and isn't performing as well this year is a cap dump. NO value.

Can you see why these conversations are frustrating? I mean, we're all homers on these boards but there should be some degree of realism.

Ardvisson might not fit what the Ducks are after. Okay, fair enough.

I'll bow to the superior knowledge of Anaheim fans as to what that team needs.

But endlessly bashing every Oiler player has got to get tiresome.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Still don't think the Oilers really have anything the Ducks want. Gibson's past 5 years of slow decline raise too many red flags. If they have him and Skinner together at least that's a decent tandem but it sounds like Gibson doesn't want that so... thanks, John. We gave you a playoff series win in 2017 and this is how you thank us?

 

[Stephen]

The Ducks really need to set Gibson free so he can finally get a chance to compete for that 2021 Stanley Cup.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah see we just will have to agree to disagree. Gibson had one terrible season (last year) and otherwise has pretty much always been the same goalie, with his numbers being aligned with what's in front him. Putting up a .900 SV% in 50+ games behind the worst team of the modern era, was an accomplishment. There are goalies who struggle to put up those numbers on good teams. No one around the game has ever been as down on him as people who just glance at stats and don't apply context. NHL execs still voted him a top 15 goalie just a year ago. You saying he's had poor value for years is just an opinion and I don't believe it's actually shared around the league.

That's all fair as well, although Gibson's play has been down for more than one season, and I think most would agree with that, regardless of the quality of the team in front of him. His resurgence this year is the reason anyone would be interested at all. I don't think it would put his value at the height it was before his numerous down seasons.

I think the key is that it doesn't really matter what his value is outside of what his value is to Pat Verbeek. Verbeek doesn't need to cave on his demands if he wants a 1st and a prospect and more if there is cap going back and retention. And if he decides to keep him until the right deal comes along, that's fair too. All I am suggesting, is that Verbeek's value for Gibson isn't necessarily in line with the demand for goalies around the league. If he would rather keep him than move on his asking price, that's fine, but I suspect in that scenario, he ends up keeping him.

 

[Ducks DVM]

There it is.

Gibson, a guy who has been terrible in previous seasons and is signed at $6.4 Million for multiple years is getting a 1st, but Ardvisson, who has multiple good seasons and isn't performing as well this year is a cap dump. NO value.

Can you see why these conversations are frustrating? I mean, we're all homers on these boards but there should be some degree of realism.

Ardvisson might not fit what the Ducks are after. Okay, fair enough.

I'll bow to the superior knowledge of Anaheim fans as to what that team needs.

But endlessly bashing every Oiler player has got to get tiresome.

Arvidsson had back surgery last year, had to go on IR this year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is producing like Fabbri. He is absolutely not an attractive piece as a trade target. The risk associated with him is substantially higher than the risk associated with Gibson, both for future injuries, and the likelihood of actually returning to form.

Would you make the trade if the situations were reversed?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

That's all fair as well, although Gibson's play has been down for more than one season, and I think most would agree with that, regardless of the quality of the team in front of him. His resurgence this year is the reason anyone would be interested at all. I don't think it would put his value at the height it was before his numerous down seasons.

I think the key is that it doesn't really matter what his value is outside of what his value is to Pat Verbeek. Verbeek doesn't need to cave on his demands if he wants a 1st and a prospect and more if there is cap going back and retention. And if he decides to keep him until the right deal comes along, that's fair too. All I am suggesting, is that Verbeek's value for Gibson isn't necessarily in line with the demand for goalies around the league. If he would rather keep him than move on his asking price, that's fine, but I suspect in that scenario, he ends up keeping him.

I don't think most who actually watch the Ducks would agree with that. The notion that he's had several down years is based on other fans peaking at stats and not putting them in proper context. All those recent years where he hovered around a .900 SV%, were not down years to anyone paying close attention. They appear to be down years statistically but he did not underperform any reasonable expectations. Your #1 ranked goalie on earth would have struggled to maintain a .910 with a starters workload behind these historically terrible Ducks teams. There's a reason he kept popping in trade rumors, teams remained interested because they know he can be better than his stats would suggest.

 

[TFHockey]

Arvidsson had back surgery last year, had to go on IR this year, is on the wrong side of 30, and is producing like Fabbri. He is absolutely not an attractive piece as a trade target. The risk associated with him is substantially higher than the risk associated with Gibson, both for future injuries, and the likelihood of actually returning to form.

Would you make the trade if the situations were reversed?

That's a great question. It's harder for me to see this from the Ducks perspective. 100% true. I conceded earlier that maybe Ardvisson isn't the right fit for the ducks. I would also point out I wasn't the one who suggested it.

However, saying Ardvisson isn't what the Ducks want back for Gibson is a far cry from calling Ardvisson a cap dump.

The perspective from Edmonton is that Ardvisson isn't performing like the Oilers want but is heads and tails better than an actual cap dump like Jeff Skinner. He shows real flashes of the player that burned the Oilers so many times in the past. He looked pretty good last night playing for Sweden in the Four Nations tournament. How many cap dumps are playing in that?

That is something for Duck fans to consider.

If the trade offer was J. Skinner for Gibson and someone called the Oilers piece a cap dump you'd get no argument from anyone. Well... I guess that isn't true. Someone would argue he isn't. This is the HF boards after all.

So I guess my point through all of this is Gibson gets a pass for previous seasons with poor numbers and is worth a lot in trade. Some Duck fans insist it's a 1st, the Oilers don't have the trade pieces to get it done at all, etc.

However Ardvisson who has had multiple good seasons, isn't playing up to those previous season but IS contributing in a top six role AND playing in the Star studded Four Nations Cup, is a worthless cap dump.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

That's a great question. It's harder for me to see this from the Ducks perspective. 100% true. I conceded earlier that maybe Ardvisson isn't the right fit for the ducks. I would also point out I wasn't the one who suggested it.

However, saying Ardvisson isn't what the Ducks want back for Gibson is a far cry from calling Ardvisson a cap dump.

The perspective from Edmonton is that Ardvisson isn't performing like the Oilers want but is heads and tails better than an actual cap dump like Jeff Skinner. He shows real flashes of the player that burned the Oilers so many times in the past. He looked pretty good last night playing for Sweden in the Four Nations tournament. How many cap dumps are playing in that?

That is something for Duck fans to consider.

If the trade offer was J. Skinner for Gibson and someone called the Oilers piece a cap dump you'd get no argument from anyone. Well... I guess that isn't true. Someone would argue he isn't. This is the HF boards after all.

So I guess my point through all of this is Gibson gets a pass for previous seasons with poor numbers and is worth a lot in trade. Some Duck fans insist it's a 1st, the Oilers don't have the trade pieces to get it done at all, etc.

However Ardvisson who has had multiple good seasons, isn't playing up to those previous season but IS contributing in a top six role AND playing in the Star studded Four Nations Cup, is a worthless cap dump.

Arvidsson would be a cap dump in the context of the deal proposed. He's not someone the Ducks are going to pursue. His only purpose in this deal would be to help the Oilers afford Gibson.

He may not universally have zero or negative value, but in the context of this deal he would.