General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

[tny760]

Tim

That was not the point. PPP is the small business loans due to Covid 19.

Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far? -Liberty Street Economics

The figure below suggests that some of the hardest hit areas—such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—are getting fewer loans than some Mountain and Midwest states on a per-small-business basis. In New York, the epicenter of the coronavirus in the United States, less than 20 percent of small businesses have been approved to receive PPP loans. In contrast, more than 55 percent of small businesses in Nebraska are expecting PPP funding.

This does not compute and unfair for us specially here in CA.

so small businesses in areas with less opportunity who would be more harshly affected by lockdown procedures received more assistance?

sounds like something you would be happy about

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

so small businesses in areas with less opportunity who would be more harshly affected by lockdown procedures received more assistance?

sounds like something you would be happy about

5 of the 12 states on that list receiving the most support are the only 5 that NEVER HAD a stay at home order (ND, SD, Iowa, Nebraska, Arkansas), Wyoming and Oklahaoma only had selective/limited orders (resort towns and vulnerable populations), and most of the rest of the 5 were only stay-at-home for a month and are already open. So that's not an explanation that stands up to criticism.

Nevertheless the early conclusion they seem to reach seems to be that areas with community-serving small banks that have large market share is the most important factor

That does disproportionately affect urban centers which were the hardest hit by the virus so even if it's not a partisan political game it's definitely poor distribution, which is a pattern

 

[Master Yoda]

Nevertheless the early conclusion they seem to reach seems to be that areas with community-serving small banks that have large market share is the most important factor

That does disproportionately affect urban centers which were the hardest hit by the virus so even if it's not a partisan political game it's definitely poor distribution, which is a pattern

This seems to be the biggest factor in the seemingly odd numbers.
There's been a massive failure by the large banks on processing these loans. And it does make sense that there's been more loans processed in the smaller states since that's where the smaller local banks dominate the market.

 

[jfont]

This seems to be the biggest factor in the seemingly odd numbers.
There's been a massive failure by the large banks on processing these loans. And it does make sense that there's been more loans processed in the smaller states since that's where the smaller local banks dominate the market.

That makes sense. Large banks in the big states were only processing large loans instead of smaller ones. This will then increase their reserves which is good for the big banks but leaves the small businesses out.

 

[jfont]

 

[Legionnaire]

Tim

That was not the point. PPP is the small business loans due to Covid 19.

Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far? -Liberty Street Economics

The figure below suggests that some of the hardest hit areas—such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—are getting fewer loans than some Mountain and Midwest states on a per-small-business basis. In New York, the epicenter of the coronavirus in the United States, less than 20 percent of small businesses have been approved to receive PPP loans. In contrast, more than 55 percent of small businesses in Nebraska are expecting PPP funding.

This does not compute and unfair for us specially here in CA.

Master Yodas post probably is the best answer.

My point is that without the infrastructure of agriculture we could see nationwide fammine if this persists. So yes, our bread basket should be the proiorty.

 

[KINGS17]

This seems to be the biggest factor in the seemingly odd numbers.
There's been a massive failure by the large banks on processing these loans. And it does make sense that there's been more loans processed in the smaller states since that's where the smaller local banks dominate the market.

@BigKing may have already covered this, but I would like to hear from him on:

1. Does he feel the community banks in California are doing a better job for small businesses than large banks?

2. In terms of percentages how many big banks are there vs community banks in California?, in less populated states?

3. How would small businesses which have been profitable and funded there expenses via their own profits for years get a loan, if they haven't borrowed money from a bank in years?

 

[KINGS17]

Master Yodas post probably is the best answer.

My point is that without the infrastructure of agriculture we could see nationwide fammine if this persists. So yes, our bread basket should be the proiorty.

My breadbasket is almost always my first priority. BTW, are you going to eat that?

 

[Legionnaire]

My breadbasket is almost always my first priority. BTW, are you going to eat that?

Nope. All yours.

 

[Bandit]

Master Yodas post probably is the best answer.

My point is that without the infrastructure of agriculture we could see nationwide fammine if this persists. So yes, our bread basket should be the proiorty.

I don’t disagree, but California produces the most food for the country by a pretty wide margin. A lot of things exclusively. Not wheat or corn but practically everything else.

 

[Legionnaire]

I don’t disagree, but California produces the most food for the country by a pretty wide margin. A lot of things exclusively. Not wheat or corn but practically everything else.

Oh, I know but vegetables rot. Civilization was built upon wheat and corn. The ability to cultivate wheat was what led us from being merely being hunter gatherers to a place where we could subsistce safely.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Riverside and San Bernardino counties rescinding their mask requirements tonight...again, at the stupidest time. Riverside county just had about 20 deaths in the last two days, 10% of their total deaths, and SB County growing steadily day by day as well.

It might just be me, but I'm okay with opening up quite a bit--but not with no mitigation measures.

Recent study finding that if 80% of us wore them, infection rates would plummet: If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says

Visualization here: Agent-Based Model for COVID-19 Masking

Report here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf


There's a significant argument to be made--as it has been here for weeks--over whether we need to relieve the economy at the risk of public health. But I don't think there's a significant argument to be made against wearing a mask.

 

[Fishhead]

Oh, I know but vegetables rot. Civilization was built upon wheat and corn. The ability to cultivate wheat was what led us from being merely being hunter gatherers to a place where we could subsistce safely.

True, but California is also the 2nd largest rice producer, mostly white, which is a key staple. Lasts a lot longer than corn products and many wheat ones. Lots of civilizations were built on that as well.

 

[Legionnaire]

True, but California is also the 2nd largest rice producer, mostly white, which is a key staple. Lasts a lot longer than corn products and many wheat ones. Lots of civilizations were built on that as well.

True, true. I almost went back and added that.

However, ultimately rice requires more water and as a state that is prone to drought, that could be an issue if the worst case scenario does happen. Remember, worst case will mean everything will be scarce. Fuel, food, water etc will all play a part and logistically speaking middle America is a better distribution hub than either coast.

 

[Master Yoda]

@BigKing may have already covered this, but I would like to hear from him on:

1. Does he feel the community banks in California are doing a better job for small businesses than large banks?

2. In terms of percentages how many big banks are there vs community banks in California?, in less populated states?

3. How would small businesses which have been profitable and funded there expenses via their own profits for years get a loan, if they haven't borrowed money from a bank in years?

I can try to answer the third question.
The PPP loans are aimed at companies that qualify as a small business and the loan amount is based on the payroll dollar amount that the company has. The idea is to give money to these small businesses so that they keep everyone on payroll and don't lay people off.
And if the company follows these guidelines, it doesn't have to pay back the loan.
So it doesn't matter whether they've borrowed from a bank before or not, as long as they have employees on payroll and are considered a small business, they can get this loan.

 

[Master Yoda]

Riverside and San Bernardino counties rescinding their mask requirements tonight...again, at the stupidest time. Riverside county just had about 20 deaths in the last two days, 10% of their total deaths, and SB County growing steadily day by day as well.

It might just be me, but I'm okay with opening up quite a bit--but not with no mitigation measures.

Recent study finding that if 80% of us wore them, infection rates would plummet: If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says

Visualization here: Agent-Based Model for COVID-19 Masking

Report here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf


There's a significant argument to be made--as it has been here for weeks--over whether we need to relieve the economy at the risk of public health. But I don't think there's a significant argument to be made against wearing a mask.

Agree 100%.
I'm a big proponent for opening up the economy, but this order doesn't make any sense.
The easiest and the most simple precaution people can take is wearing a mask.

I have no clue why there are people all over the news that are acting like idiots because they have to wear masks. I just don't get it.
The mask isn't for your protection, it's to protect others from getting what you may or may not have.

 

[ricardfromage]

I wonder how many of us will actually allow the govt to mandate a vaccine? How many of us will be willing to give up our right to simply say no thanks to the govt forcing us to take something that we may not believe in or to be beneficial to our health? I wonder how many christians will submit themselves to what could be the first step to receiving the mark. If you look at ID2020 that is exactly what is being proposed. I wonder. Just curious. I see it as a "my body my choice" thing but then I have lived in the socialist wastelands of Canada and on so my opinion may be tainted.

 

[KINGS17]

Newsom's standards for reopening will be impossible to attain for most counties. Yes, the goalposts have most definitely moved. The curve has been flattened in almost every county besides LA, but now we have new and impossible goals for a full reopening which will never be reached by the end of the year. If we had these type of requirements for the flu, almost the entire state would shutdown at the end of every October for four to six months.

Also, if the county you live in happens to meet all of Newsom's "requirements" then crosses over the line on one of them a week later, what happens? When you contemplate the whipsaw effect this can have on a daily basis, you begin to understand these requirements are not well considered from the standpoint of having a viable economy.

Coronavirus lockdown: Bay Area counties are far from meeting Gov. Newsom's rules

1. The state's standard for a county to re-open is under 1 new case per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days.

With the 1.5 test per 1,000 residents daily requirement, no county will meet this criteria in the foreseeable future.

2. Counties must have no deaths for two weeks to reopen.

With every level of government's failure to protect the elderly, especially in nursing homes, this will never happen.

3. Counties must have at least 1.5 tests per 1,000 residents daily.

If you live in LA county with a population of roughly 10 million people, that is 1,500 tests per day. With LA county having only done approximately 208,000 tests in total since this all started, good luck with that. Then good luck with the 1 new case per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days requirement.

4. Counties must show they have at least 15 “contact tracers” per 100,000 residents — staff who will track down and notify those who had been in contact with the newly infected.

These people will wield tremendous and yet undefined power in every county. More government bureaucratic intrusion is on the way, but this is California, so what did we expect?

 

[tny760]

i wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see some lawsuits before any of those are met

just picturing the 2 week countdown as soon as we go a day without a death, then some 98 year old lady with diabetes and emphysema produces a false positive and the cycle starts anew

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I wonder how many of us will actually allow the govt to mandate a vaccine? How many of us will be willing to give up our right to simply say no thanks to the govt forcing us to take something that we may not believe in or to be beneficial to our health? I wonder how many christians will submit themselves to what could be the first step to receiving the mark. If you look at ID2020 that is exactly what is being proposed. I wonder. Just curious. I see it as a "my body my choice" thing but then I have lived in the socialist wastelands of Canada and on so my opinion may be tainted.

I don't see how they'd mandate it any more than the flu vaccine, both for reasons you state--people's will--as well as further economic and other reasons.

Newsom's standards for reopening will be impossible to attain for most counties. Yes, the goalposts have most definitely moved. The curve has been flattened in almost every county besides LA, but now we have new and impossible goals for a full reopening which will never be reached by the end of the year. If we had these type of requirements for the flu, almost the entire state would shutdown at the end of every October for four to six months.

Also, if the county you live in happens to meet all of Newsom's "requirements" then crosses over the line on one of them a week later, what happens? When you contemplate the whipsaw effect this can have on a daily basis, you begin to understand these requirements are not well considered from the standpoint of having a viable economy.

Coronavirus lockdown: Bay Area counties are far from meeting Gov. Newsom's rules

1. The state's standard for a county to re-open is under 1 new case per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days.

With the 1.5 test per 1,000 residents daily requirement, no county will meet this criteria in the foreseeable future.

2. Counties must have no deaths for two weeks to reopen.

With every level of government's failure to protect the elderly, especially in nursing homes, this will never happen.

3. Counties must have at least 1.5 tests per 1,000 residents daily.

If you live in LA county with a population of roughly 10 million people, that is 1,500 tests per day. With LA county having only done approximately 208,000 tests in total since this all started, good luck with that. Then good luck with the 1 new case per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days requirement.

4. Counties must show they have at least 15 “contact tracers” per 100,000 residents — staff who will track down and notify those who had been in contact with the newly infected.

These people will wield tremendous and yet undefined power in every county. More government bureaucratic intrusion is on the way, but this is California, so what did we expect?

i wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see some lawsuits before any of those are met

just picturing the 2 week countdown as soon as we go a day without a death, then some 98 year old lady with diabetes and emphysema produces a false positive and the cycle starts anew

I think the boldfaced you two bring up is a legitimate concern.

However when we're talking about a near-full reopening with no masks etc. I don't see why it's ridiculous to expect things to be falling before doing so.

As I said as recently as last night two counties that are still on the upswing just opened Phase 2 AND stupidly removed the mask requirement, which is basically begging for a turn for the worse.

In this case, I applaud leadership for not giving in to public pressure for stupidity given several of the hardest hit counties are pushing for a full unmitigated opening. "Okay we're done with this" isn't a data-informed reason.

Edit: I also agree that the numbers will rise as testing rises so that's a self-defeating criteria. But more testing and tracing is absolutely necessary, even using SK as an example, they recently had a breakout that they were able to stymie thus far due to testing, tracing, and mitigation like masks. Right now we are doing none of the above while some counties keep climbing.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't see how they'd mandate it any more than the flu vaccine, both for reasons you state--people's will--as well as further economic and other reasons.








I think the boldfaced you two bring up is a legitimate concern.

However when we're talking about a near-full reopening with no masks etc. I don't see why it's ridiculous to expect things to be falling before doing so.

As I said as recently as last night two counties that are still on the upswing just opened Phase 2 AND stupidly removed the mask requirement, which is basically begging for a turn for the worse.

In this case, I applaud leadership for not giving in to public pressure for stupidity given several of the hardest hit counties are pushing for a full unmitigated opening. "Okay we're done with this" isn't a data-informed reason.

Edit: I also agree that the numbers will rise as testing rises so that's a self-defeating criteria. But more testing and tracing is absolutely necessary, even using SK as an example, they recently had a breakout that they were able to stymie thus far due to testing, tracing, and mitigation like masks. Right now we are doing none of the above while some counties keep climbing.

Masks are fine. I haven't see any clear guidance on when businesses can completely reopen with masks, has anyone else?

We are going to have outbreaks at various times, in various places, of various sizes in the future. We cannot sustain this level of economic inactivity.

 

[Fishhead]

Masks are fine. I haven't see any clear guidance on when businesses can completely reopen with masks, has anyone else?

We are going to have outbreaks at various times, in various places, of various sizes in the future. We cannot sustain this level of economic inactivity.

Yea if those guidelines are what are required for a back to normal, that's totally fine. There's no way that's attainable otherwise, and maybe it will never be.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Masks are fine. I haven't see any clear guidance on when businesses can completely reopen with masks, has anyone else?

We are going to have outbreaks at various times, in various places, of various sizes in the future. We cannot sustain this level of economic inactivity.

I'm pretty sure that's the barrier/transition between phase 2 and phase 3, which is basically everything but large public events--having testing and tracing so we can lockdown outbreaks like South Korea. But I'm away from the info right now and can't check.

But the problem is that masks are being largely sneered at as a symbol of oppression right now, it's like many people/counties can't wrap their head around making some compromises. you want to open things up? So do I, but let's protect ourselves--instead it's being presented as a binary full lock down or full open instead thanks to bullshit partisan gamesmanship.

 

[tny760]

Edit: I also agree that the numbers will rise as testing rises so that's a self-defeating criteria. But more testing and tracing is absolutely necessary, even using SK as an example, they recently had a breakout that they were able to stymie thus far due to testing, tracing, and mitigation like masks. Right now we are doing none of the above while some counties keep climbing.

i have to give the government information in order to live my life? that's a hard sell

masks is one thing which i'm not happy about but i'm willing to budge on, government movement tracking is another story

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

i have to give the government information in order to live my life? that's a hard sell

masks is one thing which i'm not happy about but i'm willing to budge on, government movement tracking is another story

Test and trace isn't literally implanting you with a chip (though China was using some cellphone stuff, in line with their surveillance state)--it's if you test positive, going back and checking out everyone you had contact with in recent weeks to test and isolate those who could transmit the virus.

If you have a problem with being informed you were in contact with someone who had the virus, then yeah, we're f***ed anyway.