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I think his point is if you do number six, the infections among school children do not matter. Until this blows over grandparents should not be seeing their grandchildren, if the goal is to be 100% safe from transmission by younger people to the elderly. This is a difficult proposition to be sure, especially in homes where there are multi-generations, but that is a small percentage of the total households in the U.S.


Personally I think that's tougher than you think especially in SoCal but I can't be sure, totally anecdotally speaking here. Possibly just a personal bias, but 3 and 6 feel like they're written a little more recklessly than intended.
 
Personally I think that's tougher than you think especially in SoCal but I can't be sure, totally anecdotally speaking here. Possibly just a personal bias, but 3 and 6 feel like they're written a little more recklessly than intended.
Some areas of Southern California for sure it is more difficult. It shouldn't be a one-size fits all approach though. No reason why kids who are in single family homes who are practicing isolation from the elderly and those most at risk should not be going to school. It requires a lot of discipline, and what is the cost of the alternative? Many schools have already made the decision to shut it down for this school year, but they should be back in session when the next school year starts.

I also don't see any reason why kids and their parents should forego the activities they normally participate in during the summer, such as Little League, swimming, soccer, etc. Sorry, grandma and grandpa, you can't go to any of the games this season.
 
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The advisory was for states to begin opening up once they have 2 weeks of reported cases going down.

I find arguments this is 1) extreme 2) draconian and 3) a violation of civil liberties and 4) dangerous very disagreeable.

Especially since the federal government told states they are on their own, and is now extorting states to agree to meet his political agenda before offering aid.

I'm most concerned that the "we must restart the economy" rhetoric comes when the virus is most dangerous for people of retirement age. Would we be so eager to sacrifice lives if the lethality was higher against prople in the 20-64 age range?

Myself, I'm in danger. I have issues with my lungs. Even though my girlfriend is able to do her job at home, her work is trying to force her to go in. If she contracts Covid and brings it home to me, I'm very concerned that's it.

Maybe my perspective is different, but the right of people to get the best chance to survive a pandemic outweighs the "civil liberties" of people carelessly failing to adhere to the simple precautions you espouse we take.

The government can coordinate to help provide finances and services for people to recoup losses if they ask people to stay inside and are unable to work. The government can't revive people who die.

So, I am sorry my desire to live and avoid a virus that attacks where I'm vulnerable conflicts with your perceived compromise of civil liberties. I'm sorry there are people suffering financially and mentally of being unable to work and congregate like they used to. More than anything, I'm sorry we have leadership, from the governors to the president, who is letting us all worry that we have to sacrifice some tenets to protect the others.
Great Post KP and I can relate.

My wife is also in the high risk group and is very afraid of me going to work and bringing back the virus.

For those having difficulty with the lockdown, please see below:

Burning Out on the Pandemic? You’re Not Alone | Emergency Management Department
 
Change of topic but still coronavirus related. This one is about LAUSD and their inability to make their teachers teach online.

They are allowed two hours to teach online (max) and it is not at all mandatory. Meanwhile, Charter schools and private schools engage their students in more hours online. Essentially makes this situation home schooling for my daughter. This is just pathetic. I told my wife these teachers are getting summer vacation early. I wrote to Buetner and Goldberg to complain 2 weeks ago. No reply back.

I know its extreme but I think they should all be fired like what Reagan did to air traffic controllers in the 80s and have them apply again for thier jobs. UTLA sucks
 
The advisory was for states to begin opening up once they have 2 weeks of reported cases going down.

I find arguments this is 1) extreme 2) draconian and 3) a violation of civil liberties and 4) dangerous very disagreeable.

Especially since the federal government told states they are on their own, and is now extorting states to agree to meet his political agenda before offering aid.

I'm most concerned that the "we must restart the economy" rhetoric comes when the virus is most dangerous for people of retirement age. Would we be so eager to sacrifice lives if the lethality was higher against prople in the 20-64 age range?

Myself, I'm in danger. I have issues with my lungs. Even though my girlfriend is able to do her job at home, her work is trying to force her to go in. If she contracts Covid and brings it home to me, I'm very concerned that's it.

Maybe my perspective is different, but the right of people to get the best chance to survive a pandemic outweighs the "civil liberties" of people carelessly failing to adhere to the simple precautions you espouse we take.

The government can coordinate to help provide finances and services for people to recoup losses if they ask people to stay inside and are unable to work. The government can't revive people who die.

So, I am sorry my desire to live and avoid a virus that attacks where I'm vulnerable conflicts with your perceived compromise of civil liberties. I'm sorry there are people suffering financially and mentally of being unable to work and congregate like they used to. More than anything, I'm sorry we have leadership, from the governors to the president, who is letting us all worry that we have to sacrifice some tenets to protect the others.

I have extremely vulnerable people in my family, which is why I feel very strongly about this lockdown as well. Instead of protecting the vulnerable population, while allowing the disease to run through the very low risk population and burn itself out we are sitting on our hands and hoping it will just go away. Which is not going to happen, so we are eventually going to have to deal with the virus naturally and this continued lockdown will have been pointless other than extending the time when my loved ones are in danger and have to isolate from their family.
 
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Is it illegal to protest? I see hundreds protesting in every city every day and I don't see anyone but the violent getting arrested.

They are citing people, the punishment is $1,000 fine or 6 months in jail. Now, this obvioulsy will be thrown out because a governor can't make that call, but still.

Here are the phases. Nothing is completely arbitrary in such a way that anyone can honestly claim 'power grab.'

California's reopening will come in 4 phases: What you need to know



Phase 2 was supposed to come when we had a two-week falling--but instead, we're doing it at the peak to appease.

The idea was that we'd have a better handling on testing, a start on tracing, and some sort of treatment in hand.

And of course outdoor transmission is unlikely and after all the findings on Vitamin D deficiency the sun may be a powerful tool--but again, it's not like people are safely socially distancing at the beach, they're protesting in place within inches of each other with no PPE, which isn't much better than inside, if at all.

Your link didn't have any measurables at all, unless I missed it. It seemed to just say what can open at each phase. I kind of rememeber one, but for the life of me can not find what goals have to be hit for each phase.

I get it, and I have very liberal friends who are amongst the protesters for similar reasons--they are poor and ready to take their chances. I know not everyone is the mouthbreathing idiot with an assault rifle marching on the state capitol because the nail salon is closed. I'm willing to bet the great majority aren't just trying to spit on Newsom, they're in legitimate financial peril. But again, that's a long way from "i can't go to the beach in April." It's why P2 is opening businesses.

It's more than wanting to go to the beach in April. It is about having leadership who is actually making appropriate decisions. He has taken it upon himself to be the ultimate and only authority for this state, so when he acts out of emotion it is a problem. How can I trust him to make any decisions?

Sweden, UK, even parts of the US. Iran, definitely--they decided NOT to shut down for a while, only big public gatherings.

No, of course NZ isn't comparable. But South Korea is, even down to the public reporting date--they're basically our timeline mates and look at how they responded.

Yes, agreed on the reporting. There is actually a LOT of good news out there and progress being made, it's just being buried by mushroom cloud rhetoric.

I don't think Sweden got kicked in the teeth, they have had a declining death rate since late April and likely will have herd immunity by June. They have an exit plan already, we still have no idea what to do.

I didn't say they were comparable, I specifically pointed out LA county is a disaster. But you take that out, and OC is accelerating virus trouble at a higher rate than any other part of the state. You can brush that off if you like, but that's the data.

It's much like how if you pull NYC out, the rest of the US is still rising, rather than plateauing. As you say, from a raw numbers perspective that may not be trouble, but with the historically exponential growth of this thing (see data on previous page of Socal counties doubling in death every two weeks), I don't think you can ignore it, it bears monitoring very closely.

And so I'm very clear again to both of you--you may remember I advocated that yes, it's time, around the 2nd week of May. I'm just urging caution because it seems like many (not you in particular) think 'opening' means full-speed-ahead, no mask, no distancing measures--that's my biggest worry. People are just going to forget what we've learned about mitigation. Let's do it, but with caution, and be ready to peel back if things blow up--yet, of course, based on the beach in april thing, my secondary worry is we'll catch fire and people will refuse to go back to stay-at-home. And that's how you get a second peak. I'm just hopeful that new knowledge and treatment measures will stop all that.

People are not going to do any mitigation because we kept this lockdown going for longer than it needed to be going. Instead of a 2 week bend the curve with a restricted opening up like we were told, we locked people in their houses for 2 months. The dam is going to burst here soon and people are just going to do whatever they want because the governor overplayed his hand.
 
They are citing people, the punishment is $1,000 fine or 6 months in jail. Now, this obvioulsy will be thrown out because a governor can't make that call, but still.

Link? I literally haven't seen any of that, and I've seen plenty of authorities in attendance.

Regardless acting like its an eroding of civil liberties is not something I'm going to be able to agree with.



Your link didn't have any measurables at all, unless I missed it. It seemed to just say what can open at each phase. I kind of rememeber one, but for the life of me can not find what goals have to be hit for each phase.

It's more than wanting to go to the beach in April. It is about having leadership who is actually making appropriate decisions. He has taken it upon himself to be the ultimate and only authority for this state, so when he acts out of emotion it is a problem. How can I trust him to make any decisions?
[/QUOTE]

It doesn't have literal data measurements, unfortunately, and you'll remember that's one of my chief complaints. But I understand it has to provide some leeway. Like I said, though, it should make you pretty happy that the initial guidance of two falling weeks of cases is being disregarded now so we can move to P2.

Leadership all over the country is lacking and so the state governors ARE the ones in control of how their state responds and I"m not sure how that's controversial when there's reasoning being given for the big decisions. BUT--those 4 phases are based on federal criteria so it's not a unilateral Newsom "issue."


I don't think Sweden got kicked in the teeth, they have had a declining death rate since late April and likely will have herd immunity by June. They have an exit plan already, we still have no idea what to do.

Sweden vs. nearby countries:

https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map-europe.svg?frame=webM

10x more death than Finland/Norway.

yes, they have a plan and an exit plan, that's competent leadership at play at least. The also have phenomenal health care, unlike USA. We have an exit plan as well, as noted above. It's likely to be modified as external factors, like treatment and vaccines, enter the picture. But the actual point was that they decided against locking down and just faced this thing with some responsibility measures in place and showed that even in a good scenario--part of the world where it isn't as prevalent, neighboring countries super low in infections/deaths, responsible populace with great health care--that yes, they got relatively kicked in the teeth.

Also that's not considering my other examples at all.


People are not going to do any mitigation because we kept this lockdown going for longer than it needed to be going. Instead of a 2 week bend the curve with a restricted opening up like we were told, we locked people in their houses for 2 months. The dam is going to burst here soon and people are just going to do whatever they want because the governor overplayed his hand.

It was never two weeks. It was always at least a month. And now we have a restricted opening.

Revisiting my data from the last page:

"OC had deaths double every two weeks in april, from 11 on 4/1 to 21 on 4/14 to 42 on 4/28. Nearly 4x increase.

Riverside county even worse, from 11 to 54 to 142. nearly 13x increase.

San Bernardino, 5 to 31 to 85. 17x increase.

San Diego, 11 to 67 to 133. 12x increase.

"LA, 66 to 360 to 1000. 15x increase."

All this says to me is we're opening at the worst time. We get the worst of both worlds, both the economic impact AND walking outside into the peak. It is what it is, but these idea that our civil liberties are being repressed is wrong and that it's for no reason is also factually wrong based on what we know. Now me personally? I'm with K17 that I think the studies that show the infection rate is actually sky high are correct--but if I were in charge of public policy, there's no way I'm acting on that until I can get some concrete confirmation.
 
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Link? I literally haven't seen any of that, and I've seen plenty of authorities in attendance.

Regardless acting like its an eroding of civil liberties is not something I'm going to be able to agree with.

Stay-at-home protest organizer faces fine, up to six months in jail for San Diego rally

It doesn't have literal data measurements, unfortunately, and you'll remember that's one of my chief complaints. But I understand it has to provide some leeway. Like I said, though, it should make you pretty happy that the initial guidance of two falling weeks of cases is being disregarded now so we can move to P2.

Leadership all over the country is lacking and so the state governors ARE the ones in control of how their state responds and I"m not sure how that's controversial when there's reasoning being given for the big decisions. BUT--those 4 phases are based on federal criteria so it's not a unilateral Newsom "issue."

Like I said, I can find no basis behind the 4 phases and how we progress to each one. I know I saw them at one point because I had an issue of them asking for a decrease in cases, while also asking for an increase in testing. Which ran against itself.

Sweden vs. nearby countries:

https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map-europe.svg?frame=webM

10x more death than Finland/Norway.

yes, they have a plan and an exit plan, that's competent leadership at play at least. The also have phenomenal health care, unlike USA. We have an exit plan as well, as noted above. It's likely to be modified as external factors, like treatment and vaccines, enter the picture. But the actual point was that they decided against locking down and just faced this thing with some responsibility measures in place and showed that even in a good scenario--part of the world where it isn't as prevalent, neighboring countries super low in infections/deaths, responsible populace with great health care--that yes, they got relatively kicked in the teeth.

Also that's not considering my other examples at all.

Why not compare them to the Netherlands? They are neighboring and have a higher deaths per million rate. Also, the concept of the lockdown is to extend the disease, so when Sweden is completely over this then other countries will theoretically still dealing with it. Likely next winter once the virus goes away due to the warm weather. I still don't see them getting the figurative kick in the teeth.

It was never two weeks. It was always at least a month. And now we have a restricted opening.

Revisiting my data from the last page:

"OC had deaths double every two weeks in april, from 11 on 4/1 to 21 on 4/14 to 42 on 4/28. Nearly 4x increase.

Riverside county even worse, from 11 to 54 to 142. nearly 13x increase.

San Bernardino, 5 to 31 to 85. 17x increase.

San Diego, 11 to 67 to 133. 12x increase.

"LA, 66 to 360 to 1000. 15x increase."

All this says to me is we're opening at the worst time. We get the worst of both worlds, both the economic impact AND walking outside into the peak. It is what it is, but these idea that our civil liberties are being repressed is wrong and that it's for no reason is also factually wrong based on what we know. Now me personally? I'm with K17 that I think the studies that show the infection rate is actually sky high are correct--but if I were in charge of public policy, there's no way I'm acting on that until I can get some concrete confirmation.

I'm not sure why you are presenting the data the way you are. When you go back to near the beginning of course you are going to see a high rate comparatively. Let's take San Diego, you make it seem like we are climbing at this high rate, when deaths have actually has been extremely stable.

Track the spread of COVID-19 using these charts

Our civil liberties ARE being repressed and once this has passed we are going to have to determine what inalienable rights actually means.
 
Ew, gross. But as you pointed out no way that sticks. And no citations were issued, she was not yet arrested or charge, and that's literally one organizer across the entire southland. Almost every city in the IE has had a protest this week.



Like I said, I can find no basis behind the 4 phases and how we progress to each one. I know I saw them at one point because I had an issue of them asking for a decrease in cases, while also asking for an increase in testing. Which ran against itself.

Yeah same, looked a little more, can't seem to find it. More communication fail.



Why not compare them to the Netherlands? They are neighboring and have a higher deaths per million rate. Also, the concept of the lockdown is to extend the disease, so when Sweden is completely over this then other countries will theoretically still dealing with it. Likely next winter once the virus goes away due to the warm weather. I still don't see them getting the figurative kick in the teeth.

The Netherlands, 301 deaths/million, are flanked by countries with 83 (germany--doing well), nearly 700 (Belgium), and across the channel from 433 (UK). They have neighbors doing much, much worse. From what I gather, Netherlands have basically treated coronavirus like California.

Sweden, 282 deaths/million, are flanked by countriest with 39 (Norway) and 44 (Finland) and 86.84 (Denmark). Their neighbors are doing much, much better.

They MAY get over it sooner, you're making assumptions, and only time will tell if it was the right approach (it clearly wasn't in the UK and the other places mentioned). What we DO know is they faced it head on and paid for it relative to nations around them, even with a plan, superb health care, and a responsible populace.


I'm not sure why you are presenting the data the way you are. When you go back to near the beginning of course you are going to see a high rate comparatively. Let's take San Diego, you make it seem like we are climbing at this high rate, when deaths have actually has been extremely stable.

Track the spread of COVID-19 using these charts

Our civil liberties ARE being repressed and once this has passed we are going to have to determine what inalienable rights actually means.

Doubling every two weeks and still increasing at those rates doesn't signal that we're decreasing, only that we've prevented fully exponential growth, and certainly not that we're decreasing in the manner that was initially described as the goal for opening up. That was why I initially presented that. We'll see by the end of next week another two week stretch to evaluate that against but so far we're right on pace or worse.
 
Yeah same, looked a little more, can't seem to find it. More communication fail.

I think this is the root of my problems with everything. I do not know when I can go see my family again. I do not know when I can go camping again. I do not know when I can go for a recreational drive again. I do not know when I can sit down at the beach again. I do not know when I can go get a physical again. I mean I do not even know if I will be able to be in the hospital when my baby is born.

What is the time frame for all of this? Is it 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years? What are our goals with this lockdown? Is it bending the curve? Eliminating the disease? Waiting for a vaccine?

Every one of those those questions can be answered by only 1 person for California and he is not doing a great job communicating.
 
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Some people still have to get on an airplane and travel for work, while others do not.

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I think this is the root of my problems with everything. I do not know when I can go see my family again. I do not know when I can go camping again. I do not know when I can go for a recreational drive again. I do not know when I can sit down at the beach again. I do not know when I can go get a physical again. I mean I do not even know if I will be able to be in the hospital when my baby is born.

What is the time frame for all of this? Is it 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years? What are our goals with this lockdown? Is it bending the curve? Eliminating the disease? Waiting for a vaccine?

Every one of those those questions can be answered by only 1 person for California and he is not doing a great job communicating.

Totally agree.

Yet sadly, he's doing many times better than others.

Bad data, conflicting information, etc...making this all more of a mess.
 
This is pretty amazing. Not only does New York discharge COVID-19 patients back to their nursing homes while still infected, but until last week, they permitted nursing home personnel with COVID-19 to work in nursing homes. The workers had to be asymptomatic and could only attend to residents who had COVID-19. A week ago, they apparently realized that this was a bad thing. Also amazing is that the past practice was apparently consistent with CDC guidelines.

State Ends Policy Allowing COVID-Positive Nursing Home Staffers to Work

New York added 1,700 unreported nursing home deaths to its COVID-19 death toll yesterday.

Coronavirus News: More than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at NY nursing homes
 
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Without testing we're all in the same boat. I'm looking forward to going back to the gym and playing ice hockey again but since I have a rare form of brain cancer I think I'll wait a few weeks after CA opens back up. I was at a major hospital Monday and it was basically me, some doctors and some nurses-other than that it was completely empty. Out of all my visits to different hospitals, 2 days in the ICU I have seen nothing that says thousands of people are dying, NOTHING. But since I don't know who to trust I won't risk going to a gym and being next to somebody that decided to sweat out their cold. And all he rumors of the rinks requirements on hockey players once this is over doesn't sound like it's going to be any fun.
 
I think the idea with the Swedish method is as long as hospitals are not at max capacity and everyone needing treatment gets it then society can continue to function - with restrictions, limations and great personal responsibility of course.

Unfortunately the precautions at retirement homes were woefully inadequate, which is the main cause of the significant death toll. That they had not accounted for and is a great tragedy. I think learning from our mistakes would be crucial in trying to implement something similar.

The other Nordic countries have better numbers for sure, but their full lockdown might only be pushing the problem forward. A vaccine is likely a long long time from being developed and mass produced, if at all possible. Even flu vaccines only have a 40-60% effectiveness ( Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do the Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC ) so who knows. What is almost certain is that once lockdown is over the virus will be back to spreading unless you have a decent chunk of immune people, be it from vaccination or from being sick.

That being said, I have no idea which philosophy will ultimately be most successful. What works in one place might not work in an other. I think every decision needs to be weighed and carefully crafted, by the right people, to fit the circumstances of the region.
 
This is pretty amazing. Not only does New York discharge COVID-19 patients back to their nursing homes while still infected, but until last week, they permitted nursing home personnel with COVID-19 to work in nursing homes. The workers had to be asymptomatic and could only attend to residents who had COVID-19. A week ago, they apparently realized that this was a bad thing. Also amazing is that the past practice was apparently consistent with CDC guidelines.

State Ends Policy Allowing COVID-Positive Nursing Home Staffers to Work

New York added 1,700 unreported nursing home deaths to its COVID-19 death toll yesterday.

Coronavirus News: More than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at NY nursing homes
Surprising but also not surprising
 
You know that where a lot of food is grown, right? Makes sense to me.
Tim

That was not the point. PPP is the small business loans due to Covid 19.

Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far? -Liberty Street Economics

The figure below suggests that some of the hardest hit areas—such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—are getting fewer loans than some Mountain and Midwest states on a per-small-business basis. In New York, the epicenter of the coronavirus in the United States, less than 20 percent of small businesses have been approved to receive PPP loans. In contrast, more than 55 percent of small businesses in Nebraska are expecting PPP funding.

This does not compute and unfair for us specially here in CA.
 
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