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General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

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LT Dan said:
What have you heard?
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What I’ve heard is the same scientific super-conservative bullshit we got from day one.

Apparently, in epidemiology, you always assume the best possible case, then you slowly ratchet things up once you got “evidence”.

You know, just like they did with masks.

First it was “don’t wear masks, they don’t do anything”

Then it was “maybe they do help prevent spread but your old socks tied over your nose are fine”.

And months later it’s “Wear the damn mask and make sure it’s a good one”!

What I can say is this collection of mutations came about really fast. Much faster than say the influenza mutations.
 
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LT Dan said:
Indeed

The early reports are is that the new strain is simply "more contagious" but no reports on whether it is more deadly. This would fall in line with a virus mutating for it's one good, more hosts and (hopefully) less deadly to those hosts so it "thrives"
What have you heard?
Click to expand...

I’m no epidemiologist (duh), but the thing that seems most concerning about the new strain is that people who have it tend to have higher “viral loads” of the virus, and there is some evidence of a correlation between the “viral load” and how sick people get. We’ll have to see what studies ultimately show, but that at least seems like some cause for concern.
 
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Here is how CA is looking

upload_2021-1-6_10-17-53.png

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After Imperial's horrible run, I am wondering if they hit heard immunity there.
 
i'm surprised to not see imperial hammered again, basically everyone i know went out to ocotillo/glamis for thanksgiving and new years

i don't know what to make out of this shit any more
 
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upload_2021-1-6_13-21-35.png


Some good news here ICU down from 504 yesterday
Hospitalization down from 2249 yesterday.

I think we are about the see the NYE spike though
 
I'm hoping most of the partiers who raised hell on Xmas were already quarantined with the 'rona so they couldn't make it out to the celebrations on new years.
 
Bandit said:
Is that good news? 17 people died, so 2 people were released? Math never was my strong suit...
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LOL no
the good news was that ICU and hospitalization actually went down. they have been going up for months.

Deaths are very unfortunate. There are unfortunately many many more coming. But the deaths stats are also weeks old.
The ICU and Hosp stats are as the most real time of the indicators. The positive test stats are often about a 4 days to a week told
 
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Bandit said:
Is that good news? 17 people died, so 2 people were released? Math never was my strong suit...
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Lol my thought as well, ICU only went down cause people died?

Well 2 people for better...

Even LT Dan is right...I prefer to ignore facts and view things through my alternate reality.
 
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LT Dan said:
LOL no
the good news was that ICU and hospitalization actually went down. they have been going up for months.

Deaths are very unfortunate. There are unfortunately many many more coming. But the deaths stats are also weeks old.
The ICU and Hosp stats are as the most real time of the indicators. The positive test stats are often about a 4 days to a week told
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So you're saying that the entire drop in ICU numbers could be because they all died and won't be reported for a few weeks? yay? :D
 
Bandit said:
So you're saying that the entire drop in ICU numbers could be because they all died and won't be reported for a few weeks? yay? :D
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that is a possibility. There is also the possibility that recovered.
I am a bit of an optimist so I am hoping the latter.
 
In SBd county daily deaths reported are NOT deaths that occurred on the previous day - never have been. I suspect this is the same for all reporting jurisdictions because "cause of death" is not reported until after the death certificate is issued which could be delayed weeks. Since ICU occupancy is the only metric reported, we can't really know why it's going down.
 
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California's vaccine rollout has been too slow, Newsom says, with only 35% of doses administered

There shouldn't be a single dose of the vaccine go to waste. If someone misses their appointment and the dose is nearing the end of its shelf-life, go out on the street and say, "Anyone want the covid vaccine?"

It doesn't look like California will be able to keep a vaccination rate equal to the rate at which vaccines are being received. Maybe states with more competent distribution programs should get some of our allocation until California gets their shit together.

This article contains a map and table which shows the total number of doses given, and the number of people vaccinated per 100,000 residents.

MAP: per-state vaccination numbers across the country
 
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