GDT: GDT #43 New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators | January 14th | 7:30 PM | F/L 2-0

[Rehabguy]

Define healthy or show your work please.

Ok, I assume this is your work. First rule of statistics, it is not wise to draw inferences from descriptive statistics. You and I can play this game all day long but in my mind even a child can figure out possibly what's going on here. But that said, anyone can draw any conclusions from the data presented here, the best hope if you decide to use such a flawed method in judging performance is just to use common sense.

Second rule of statistics. When you are preparing a data analysis, or whenever I prepared data for analysis we always scanned for outliers that were 2 standard deviations from the mean and we REMOVED them from the analysis and we would explain why that data was removed. I could look at this data and I would immediately notice that the goal's for in year 2024-2025 were the lowest at 2.60 which if I was to do an analysis and you can do this easily in excel that number should fall outside 2 standard deviations from the mean. Meaning that it is an outlier. PK, can you come up with any reason why scoring is low this season? Hmm, I think I could. Could it be oh maybe they were missing their two top playmakers for a significant period of time or maybe you have the worse PP assistant coach in the NHL 6 years running dragging your numbers down. But any way you cut it there legitimate reasons why that 2.60 can be considered a statistical outlier and you don't include those numbers in the statistical averages. Same with GAA. 3.02 is kinda high but maybe not 2 standard deviations from the mean but could anyone explain why that number is high this year. Hmm I could. Maybe because the team missing f-ing their entire left side defense for 1/4 of the season and had called up 3 AHL players to play in their stead.

So all you can do is look at the body of work Roy has done compared to his predecessors under similar conditions with as much of the variables controlled as possible. If you take year 2023-2024 and you compare Lambert's performance versus Roy's performance you will see an INVERSE relationship depending upon who was coaching the team. When Roy was coaching the exact roster as Lambert he had a high GF and statistically the highest GF in 8 years at 3.06 and at the same time he had a lower GA average compared to Lambert. This is the inverse relationship. Previous data had been posted previously on this board cited from an article showed in just 37 games Roy improved the 5 on 5 GAA of not just one but EVERY SINGLE player on this team. Now understand this. This data is not really an apples to apples comparison. Roy joined the Islanders in the middle to the latter part of a season when the team was on a losing streak and a nose dive with a high pressure to make the playoffs and he does this. The highest GF in 8 years and the lowest GAA for every single player literally over night.

Folks, you don't blame a guy with that kind of a performance unless you are a complete idiot. Some of you might try to take out a calculator and try to fool masses with your skewed "conclusions" but you're not fooling me. The problem with this team is not Roy. It would be like looking at the Oilers first few seasons and assuming their losing record must be due to McDavid because he's just not making players around him better like he's supposed to so you trade him. (This is the logic some fools here are using against Barzal). You don't throw the baby out with the bath water. You make a fair analysis of the situation and you go from there.

 

[Rehabguy]

It is you who cannot who has trouble with reading comprehension. Your post does not address what is being discussed. Yes, Lou, did the hiring. He does all of the hiring, he is the GM and President. The coach cannot hire anyone. That is not his job. But the question at hand is whether or not Roy had or has a say and if Lou would be amenable to making changes if Roy requested them. I don't know the answer to that and neither do you.

Your statement was, "None of us here know if he has that authority or not but some are making the assertion that he doesn't."

And you just admitted that Lou does the hiring and that means HE has the authority, the final say, not Roy. Comprende?

 

[Chockey22]

View attachment 961573


Ok, I assume this is your work. First rule of statistics, it is not wise to draw inferences from descriptive statistics. You and I can play this game all day long but in my mind even a child can figure out possibly what's going on here. But that said, anyone can draw any conclusions from the data presented here, the best hope if you decide to use such a flawed method in judging performance is just to use common sense.

Second rule of statistics. When you are preparing a data analysis, or whenever I prepared data for analysis we always scanned for outliers that were 2 standard deviations from the mean and we REMOVED them from the analysis and we would explain why that data was removed. I could look at this data and I would immediately notice that the goal's for in year 2024-2025 were the lowest at 2.60 which if I was to do an analysis and you can do this easily in excel that number should fall outside 2 standard deviations from the mean. Meaning that it is an outlier. PK, can you come up with any reason why scoring is low this season? Hmm, I think I could. Could it be oh maybe they were missing their two top playmakers for a significant period of time or maybe you have the worse PP assistant coach in the NHL 6 years running dragging your numbers down. But any way you cut it there legitimate reasons why that 2.60 can be considered a statistical outlier and you don't include those numbers in the statistical averages. Same with GAA. 3.02 is kinda high but maybe not 2 standard deviations from the mean but could anyone explain why that number is high this year. Hmm I could. Maybe because the team missing f-ing their entire left side defense for 1/4 of the season and had called up 3 AHL players to play in their stead.

So all you can do is look at the body of work Roy has done compared to his predecessors under similar conditions with as much of the variables controlled as possible. If you take year 2023-2024 and you compare Lambert's performance versus Roy's performance you will see an INVERSE relationship depending upon who was coaching the team. When Roy was coaching the exact roster as Lambert he had a high GF and statistically the highest GF in 8 years at 3.06 and at the same time he had a lower GA average compared to Lambert. This is the inverse relationship. Previous data had been posted previously on this board cited from an article showed in just 37 games Roy improved the 5 on 5 GAA of not just one but EVERY SINGLE player on this team. Now understand this. This data is not really an apples to apples comparison. Roy joined the Islanders in the middle to the latter part of a season when the team was on a losing streak and a nose dive with a high pressure to make the playoffs and he does this. The highest GF in 8 years and the lowest GAA for every single player literally over night.

Folks, you don't blame a guy with that kind of a performance unless you are a complete idiot. Some of you might try to take out a calculator and try to fool masses with your skewed "conclusions" but you're not fooling me. The problem with this team is not Roy. It would be like looking at the Oilers first few seasons and assuming their losing record must be due to McDavid because he's just not making players around him better like he's supposed to so you trade him. (This is the logic some fools here are using against Barzal). You don't throw the baby out with the bath water. You make a fair analysis of the situation and you go from there.

while interesting, this data doesn't really show anything unless you can in fact control for the factors you claim explain the variation, such us the number of injuries and quality of players injured. Similarly, without having that information to compare Roy and Lambert, it is impossible to draw any meaningful inferences from this data - as you point out in your first point.
I don't really have a horse in this race - I don't hate Roy as a coach (though I do question some of his decisions) and think he is better than Lambert but I think he is stuck with a declining roster and a poor PP coach (whether chosen by Roy or imposed by Lou).
That said, I am firmly opposed to promoting him to GM, as he has no experience in that at the NHL level and has not knocked his current job out of the park. In fact, the one personnel decision he did have a hand in was bringing in Duclair, which I personally think was a bad move that will get worse over time. If that was Roy's big acquisition idea, I want him nowhere near the GM role.

 

[Torrey Redux]

Your statement was, "None of us here know if he has that authority or not but some are making the assertion that he doesn't."

And you just admitted that Lou does the hiring and that means HE has the authority, the final say, not Roy. Comprende?

Seriously man, what is the deal with you? No one has ever questioned for even a millisecond that Lou has the final say and does the actual hiring and firing but for the umpteenth time that isn't what is being discussed. The highlighted sentence refers to whether or not a coach has any input in the hiring and firing of assistants. Not the actual act, but the input. Some were arguing without knowledge one way or the other that that was true, that he has no say and is therefore not responsible for their bad coaching. That is all. Of course you know that but in many ways you're just like Lou, continually doubling down, in this case, on a silly, specious and semantic argument to deflect responsibility for anything away from Roy.

 

[PK Cronin]

View attachment 961573


Ok, I assume this is your work. First rule of statistics, it is not wise to draw inferences from descriptive statistics. You and I can play this game all day long but in my mind even a child can figure out possibly what's going on here. But that said, anyone can draw any conclusions from the data presented here, the best hope if you decide to use such a flawed method in judging performance is just to use common sense.

Second rule of statistics. When you are preparing a data analysis, or whenever I prepared data for analysis we always scanned for outliers that were 2 standard deviations from the mean and we REMOVED them from the analysis and we would explain why that data was removed. I could look at this data and I would immediately notice that the goal's for in year 2024-2025 were the lowest at 2.60 which if I was to do an analysis and you can do this easily in excel that number should fall outside 2 standard deviations from the mean. Meaning that it is an outlier. PK, can you come up with any reason why scoring is low this season? Hmm, I think I could. Could it be oh maybe they were missing their two top playmakers for a significant period of time or maybe you have the worse PP assistant coach in the NHL 6 years running dragging your numbers down. But any way you cut it there legitimate reasons why that 2.60 can be considered a statistical outlier and you don't include those numbers in the statistical averages. Same with GAA. 3.02 is kinda high but maybe not 2 standard deviations from the mean but could anyone explain why that number is high this year. Hmm I could. Maybe because the team missing f-ing their entire left side defense for 1/4 of the season and had called up 3 AHL players to play in their stead.

So all you can do is look at the body of work Roy has done compared to his predecessors under similar conditions with as much of the variables controlled as possible. If you take year 2023-2024 and you compare Lambert's performance versus Roy's performance you will see an INVERSE relationship depending upon who was coaching the team. When Roy was coaching the exact roster as Lambert he had a high GF and statistically the highest GF in 8 years at 3.06 and at the same time he had a lower GA average compared to Lambert. This is the inverse relationship. Previous data had been posted previously on this board cited from an article showed in just 37 games Roy improved the 5 on 5 GAA of not just one but EVERY SINGLE player on this team. Now understand this. This data is not really an apples to apples comparison. Roy joined the Islanders in the middle to the latter part of a season when the team was on a losing streak and a nose dive with a high pressure to make the playoffs and he does this. The highest GF in 8 years and the lowest GAA for every single player literally over night.

Folks, you don't blame a guy with that kind of a performance unless you are a complete idiot. Some of you might try to take out a calculator and try to fool masses with your skewed "conclusions" but you're not fooling me. The problem with this team is not Roy. It would be like looking at the Oilers first few seasons and assuming their losing record must be due to McDavid because he's just not making players around him better like he's supposed to so you trade him. (This is the logic some fools here are using against Barzal). You don't throw the baby out with the bath water. You make a fair analysis of the situation and you go from there.

All I asked was for you to define healthy and/or for you to show your work on how you came to these conclusions. You provided neither.

What is interesting is that missing Barzal for an extended period of time actually led to better numbers offensively this season, and goals against remained relatively the same (an increase of .05 without him). Even 5 on 5 goals went up and 5 on 5 defense got better, significantly, despite a decimated defensive core. (I also went back and looked at when Barzal was out for an extended period of time in 2022-23 shown at the bottom)

The highest goals for average, sure, but the goals against couldn't have been the lowest since it was overall still higher than every single Trotz year and it was higher than the first Lambert year.

You suggested that Barzal (and Duclair) being out for an extended period is a reason for the drop in GF/GP but the data doesn't back that up. Also worth noting when mentioning outliers, Roy's first 37 games to close out the 2023-24 season is the smallest sample of the bunch.

Disclaimer: I am not a math wiz and was at work being interrupted while looking at some of the data so there could definitely be errors.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Guys, this runs way deeper than an assistant coach. The roster is in the bottom tier of the league; that’s where you start.

 

[leeroggy]

Guys, this runs way deeper than an assistant coach. The roster is in the bottom tier of the league; that’s where you start.

Disagree
The start of all this was the Bailey trade
He put a curse on us and until we sacrifice a live chicken during a Shannon interview, we're screwed
Just like the Jets
Joe Namath and a virgin in a white dress are dropped in a volcano . . .
Guys, wake up and do what needs to be done!

 

[Rehabguy]

while interesting, this data doesn't really show anything unless you can in fact control for the factors you claim explain the variation, such us the number of injuries and quality of players injured. Similarly, without having that information to compare Roy and Lambert, it is impossible to draw any meaningful inferences from this data - as you point out in your first point.
I don't really have a horse in this race - I don't hate Roy as a coach (though I do question some of his decisions) and think he is better than Lambert but I think he is stuck with a declining roster and a poor PP coach (whether chosen by Roy or imposed by Lou).
That said, I am firmly opposed to promoting him to GM, as he has no experience in that at the NHL level and has not knocked his current job out of the park. In fact, the one personnel decision he did have a hand in was bringing in Duclair, which I personally think was a bad move that will get worse over time. If that was Roy's big acquisition idea, I want him nowhere near the GM role.

Yes you are absolutely right. There are many ways to lie with statistics especially descriptive statistics like its presented here. But, there is a scientific method where you can take data such as the comparison of Lambert's performance versus Roy's performance for the 2023-2024 year and show that the performance difference is unlikely due to chance. A sample size of 35 to 47 is likely a large enough sample to legitimately test a null hypothesis but of course the larger the sample size the better. In this case a simple student's T test analyzing GF/GA ration versus the two coaches would be all that's needed. Every study will have a methodology section and a discussion section where uncontrollable factors and outliers are discussed. The point of my post being is that you don't just take a bunch of descriptive statistics and draw inferences from them without having an objective methodology from which to draw those inferences.

For the layman the idea being don't just draw conclusions without looking at other possible explanations. The scientific method simply makes objective that wise advise.

 

[Rehabguy]

Guys, this runs way deeper than an assistant coach. The roster is in the bottom tier of the league; that’s where you start.

Understood. There appear to be changes that have to occur if the players cannot get their heads pulled out of their a@sses especially following the last game's performance. That was pretty unacceptable especially after such inspired efforts on the road. The talent is there the motivation and work ethic isn't always there and that's mostly on the players at this point. I think it would help to bring in a proven PP coach who can totally revamp this team's approach to the PP. The PK seems to be improving but this PP has been unacceptable for years and it is unacceptable that they are retaining the same guy who has been running it for years when it has been consistently close to the bottom of the league. Roy does not appear to have much say in this because we already know how he approaches players who are not performing on the ice regardless of how much they are paid or like by Lou. It appears likely that Lou calls the shots on the assistant coaches, unfortunately you can't bench assistant coaches nor send them down to the minors.

Seriously man, what is the deal with you? No one has ever questioned for even a millisecond that Lou has the final say and does the actual hiring and firing but for the umpteenth time that isn't what is being discussed. The highlighted sentence refers to whether or not a coach has any input in the hiring and firing of assistants. Not the actual act, but the input. Some were arguing without knowledge one way or the other that that was true, that he has no say and is therefore not responsible for their bad coaching. That is all. Of course you know that but in many ways you're just like Lou, continually doubling down, in this case, on a silly, specious and semantic argument to deflect responsibility for anything away from Roy.

Ok so what you are saying you need to be authorized to share your opinion. Really? I guess billboards also gave the authority for the fans to fire GMs. Anyone can share an opinion, you don't need the authority to do so. It's up to Lou to make the best decision for the organization because he is the authority in charge of doing the hiring and firing. Hiring a guy who is horrible at coaching PPs in the first place is unacceptable. Retaining him when he has shown no improvement for 8 years is inexcusable and a fireable offense. Keep piling it on. I have said it over and over at some point Roy should be held accountable for how this team is performing based upon what he has control over. Firing Roy simply because you are simple minded and want to just blow it all up as the solution to the problem is just absurd.

 

[MJF]

The talent is there

The talent is not there.

There is no high end talent on this roster. There hasn’t been any high end talent here since the day Lou took over. That’s been his biggest failing, to improve the talent on the roster to get the team over the top for the 2021-22 season and moving forward from there. What we’ve always had here is a glut of middle 6 skill level players.

 

[Torrey Redux]

The talent is not there.

There is no high end talent on this roster. There hasn’t been any high end talent here since the day Lou took over. That’s been his biggest failing, to improve the talent on the roster to get the team over the top for the 2021-22 season and moving forward from there. What we’ve always had here is a glut of middle 6 skill level players.

I agree that the talent is not there, but, and this may surprise those who have read my posts about Lou, I don't necessarily blame him for the lack of high end talent. He took a big swing at Panarin, maybe others, we don't know, but the Isles just aren't going to get those kinds of players in FA.

No, Lou's greatest failing is not that he couldn't bring in the elite talent (though it is a failing, because he is supposed to be something extra special according to the hockey world), it was and is in not recognizing that the group he kept doubling and tripling down on was never going to be a cup contender and in doing so he mortgaged the future for an impossible dream leaving us in about as bad a position as an organization can be outside of Pittsburgh.

 

[MJF]

No, Lou's greatest failing is not that he couldn't bring in the elite talent (though it is a failing, because he is supposed to be something extra special according to the hockey world), it was and is in not recognizing that the group he kept doubling and tripling down on was never going to be a cup contender and in doing so he mortgaged the future for an impossible dream leaving us in about as bad a position as an organization can be outside of Pittsburgh.

I’m mostly with you on this paragraph. In the absence if being able to sign an elite free agent to upgrade the talent here (a failure to accomplish a goal he laid out) Lou was forced to sign players to fill out the roster. Did he then choose to double down and say “I believe in this team” because that’s all he had left? Probably this and went with his players and showed them more loyalty than they deserved, And some of the contracts he gave those players along the way, however, were beyond the pale and that hurt our cap situation.

No matter which side of the glass you are viewing this, the problem is Lou Lamoriello and a roster that needs a reboot.

 

[Rehabguy]

I’m mostly with you on this paragraph. In the absence if being able to sign an elite free agent to upgrade the talent here (a failure to accomplish a goal he laid out) Lou was forced to sign players to fill out the roster. Did he then choose to double down and say “I believe in this team” because that’s all he had left? Probably this and went with his players and showed them more loyalty than they deserved, And some of the contracts he gave those players along the way, however, were beyond the pale and that hurt our cap situation.

No matter which side of the glass you are viewing this, the problem is Lou Lamoriello and a roster that needs a reboot.

This is all absolutely true but the key thing you said there was "in the absence of being able to sign an elite free agent to upgrade the talent here". When has that not been the case with every GM who has worked for the Islanders. That IS the problem. It's was not Milbury's problem. It was not Snow's problem. It is not Lou's problem. The problem has existed since the dawn of this franchise. Elite free agents do not want to sign here and that's no one's fault but for the fact that this is a small town team that lies in the shadow of that other club from Manhattan. The only time we have been able to sign an elite free agent is when there was a controversy surrounding that player. See Yashin.

So as I've said many times in the past the only way to get elite level talent on this team is via the draft if we were so lucky that such talent existed which is why we hold on closely to any assets (eg, first round draft picks) unless we are certain we can acquire grade A talent for them. Lou was horrible for holding onto picks yet some voices here claim that prospects and draft picks are overrated. He traded many of those picks for middle of the road talent as you put it, not truly elite talent.

And this my friends is why I was so pissed off when we lost Garth Snow as GM of this club because he understood that the only way to bring a competitive team to Long Island is through a slow protracted rebuild through the draft and finding those diamonds in the rough. Look I get it. Snow has made his fair share of horrible lopsided trades and signings (see Dipietro though I think that is as much Wangs doing as it was Snows) and I completely get that he could be a dickhead at times. But in the final analysis taken as a whole, he was much better at building this team through the draft, making lemonade out of lemons, and making shrewd, cap friendly signings than Lou has ever was. But Peripheral voted him out.

If you really want to retool this club as much as hate to say it the team needs to rehire someone as astute as Garth Snow as GM. That's crazy I know but don't shoot the messenger.