Speculation: Gaudreau seeking $8M annually on new deal with Flames
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Johnnybegood13
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- Jul 11, 2003
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Lol, Brouwer is 2x the player of Colborne. Did you even see how Colborne got his points last year?
BigRangy
Get well soon oliver
- Mar 17, 2015
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Here is some math.
1st assumption: JG will be the best winger and a top 5 player in the world for 6 of the next 8 years. This means that his UFA years are worth 11 million per.
Ok here we go, optimistic, best-case for Gaudreau's camp valuation.
Year 1: RFA with no arb rights and no offer sheet rights. Flames have him by the proverbial balls. Basically worth his QO, 1 million for simplicity.
Years 2-5: Best or damn close to the best winger in hockey, but still an RFA. 10% of the cap would be a fair number for these years. 7.3 million per
Years 6-8: UFA years. Several Art Rosses and some Harts (and hopefully a Conn Smythe) later, he's in the height of his prime. 10.5 is the highest AAV right now, so let's bump that up to 11 per.
So, 1+7.3x4+11x2 or 3 gives an AAV of 7.45 million for 7 years or 7.9 million for 8 years.
Johnny Gaudreau, as good as he is, does not project to be the best player in the league. He might (emphasis on might) become the best winger in the league. As such, this estimation and the results are in excess of what would be fair. An 8 million per year deal would be ridiculous given past comparables and likely career projections. Johnny may be a superstar but he's not going to rewrite the standards of NHL contracts. The fact that he is in the position he is in, with 1 year of no rights and only up to 3 years of UFA to buy, should and will depress the dollar value of his contract.
1st assumption: JG will be the best winger and a top 5 player in the world for 6 of the next 8 years. This means that his UFA years are worth 11 million per.
Ok here we go, optimistic, best-case for Gaudreau's camp valuation.
Year 1: RFA with no arb rights and no offer sheet rights. Flames have him by the proverbial balls. Basically worth his QO, 1 million for simplicity.
Years 2-5: Best or damn close to the best winger in hockey, but still an RFA. 10% of the cap would be a fair number for these years. 7.3 million per
Years 6-8: UFA years. Several Art Rosses and some Harts (and hopefully a Conn Smythe) later, he's in the height of his prime. 10.5 is the highest AAV right now, so let's bump that up to 11 per.
So, 1+7.3x4+11x2 or 3 gives an AAV of 7.45 million for 7 years or 7.9 million for 8 years.
Johnny Gaudreau, as good as he is, does not project to be the best player in the league. He might (emphasis on might) become the best winger in the league. As such, this estimation and the results are in excess of what would be fair. An 8 million per year deal would be ridiculous given past comparables and likely career projections. Johnny may be a superstar but he's not going to rewrite the standards of NHL contracts. The fact that he is in the position he is in, with 1 year of no rights and only up to 3 years of UFA to buy, should and will depress the dollar value of his contract.
First, you can't have that much discrepancy in minimum to maximum yearly salaries.
Second, that's just really stupid.
- Apr 27, 2005
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BigRangy
Get well soon oliver
- Mar 17, 2015
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I was mainly trying to get a total contract value. You could front/back load or load it up with signing bonuses, as long as you come in with the AAV's I found.
Also, for a player whose only option is to sign or go play in Russia, 1 million is more than fair. He brings a level of play consistent with an 8 million dollar guy, but his contract situation does not justify paying him any more than he deserves.
Stajan's contract is all sorts of bad.
You can't pay 4th line players $3.125M on long term contracts.
yababy
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SmellOfVictory
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1. They tried to re-sign him and he wanted way too much money.
2. Unlike the Oilers, who treated him with great dignity when they wouldn't even sign him to a one way contract?
FlamesFan18
Frank the Tank
Up until this season he was really worth it as a solid 3rd line veteran who can play all zones and positions effectively. His offensive game really fell off a cliff this season which sucks but he is liked for his leadership so most fans are okay with him on the team with that cap hit for another 2 seasons. All of our other bad contracts (Smid, Engelland, Wideman, Bollig) expire after this season. The Brouwer and Frolik deals are fine, we just cannot afford to dish out a 3rd contract like that out to anymore 2nd liners. I believe the only cap issue we might come across in the future is the Giordano contract. Any other non-core long term deals (Frolik and Brouwer) can be moved easily unless they Clarktard. Any other current depth player is not signed long term. There is enough room for Johnny to sign the 7-8 he will get and then next year we have 12+ million from bad players freeing up to sign a goalie and UFA's or RFA raises.
McVespa99
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- May 13, 2007
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Any time you start a post with a false assumption it kind of ruins the rest of the post....
FlamerForLife
Mon Seanahan
Maybe you should've read the rest of the post before trying to bash it, it was a well thought out post, apart from maybe the year 1 value.
strictlyrandy
Registered User
Well thought out? It goes on to detail several Art Rosa and Hart trophies...
JG is not even a top 10 (arguably not even top 20) forward right now, yet all of a sudden he's top 5 and is a league MVP multiple times?
Not likely.
I understand he said best case scenario, but that isn't even realistic. Best case for JG is a top 10 forward in his prime and maybe just maybe he gets an Art Ross.
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McVespa99
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- May 13, 2007
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I read the whole thing. I could have bashed the several Art Ross and Harts as well but chose to be charitable.
Like I said the starting assumption was unrealistic so the rest of the post is useless. It is like me assuming MacDavid is going to be better than Gretzky so he should get 22 million per on his next contract.
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Wadewilson
Registered User
I read it as that if he was top 5, 8 million would be fair.
But he's not top 5 so he doesn't get 8million.
Kinda confusing
strictlyrandy
Registered User
I'd use the Forsberg contract as a comparable here. 6-7 million per year on a 5-6 year deal would be fair imo.
Curtis Glencross had a terrific career with the Flames and was a stand up citizen. But it was clear even at the start of the season that he was being outplayed by a majority of the forwards on the team and it was obvious that he and Bob Hartley did not see eye to eye. His trade from the team was something both parties felt was the right move and if I remember it correctly, he was a beloved member of the team as he was embraced by the entire team after practice had ended. So he with out a doubt had a proper farewell. Unfortunately, his game just detoriated quickly and he wasn't even able to make the Maple Leafs off a PTO.
BigRangy
Get well soon oliver
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If that is the absolute best-case scenario, then obviously 8 million per on an 8 year deal would be a ludicrous overpayment, because that is what you would pay a player who is the best winger in the world that's in JG's contract situation.
The level of play that he brings and the contributions that he makes are impressive. He puts butts in seats better than almost everyone. But he does not deserve to be paid 8 million per season, in fact he barely deserves 7.5, based on comparables and logic.
If Gaudreau's camp is asking for 8+ million per, they obviously think he will be one of the top 5 players in the league for an appreciable portion of his contract. He probably won't be, and the Flames shouldn't (and hopefully won't) pay him like he will be.
The level of play that he brings and the contributions that he makes are impressive. He puts butts in seats better than almost everyone. But he does not deserve to be paid 8 million per season, in fact he barely deserves 7.5, based on comparables and logic.
If Gaudreau's camp is asking for 8+ million per, they obviously think he will be one of the top 5 players in the league for an appreciable portion of his contract. He probably won't be, and the Flames shouldn't (and hopefully won't) pay him like he will be.
FlareKnight
Registered User
If Gaudreau's camp thought he'd be one of the top 5 players in the league....why are they only asking for money that would put him in the top 15 of salary for forwards? If you want to argue based on logic...why not be factually accurate? 8 million is not what you pay the top winger in the league, 9.5-10.5 is what you pay some of the best wingers in the league.
I'm not going to say he's worth the kind of money he's asking for right now, but I'm not going to say he's asking to be paid like a top 5 player either.
It's a tricky situation and I'm curious how it plays out. Gaudreau is a really talented player, but has only been in the league a couple years. I can understand the Flames not wanting to lock themselves in long term at big money. But...something has to give eventually. Curious which side decides it isn't worth sitting on this.
East Coast Icestyle
Registered User
Okay, but what compatibles? Who has been top 10 in scoring coming into an RFA contract? Please, list them off, so we can see that this isn't a relatively unique case.
Also, cap will rise. Salary now may be 'overpayment' to outsiders, but given 5 years I doubt it.
I'm not saying Gaudreau is god or the best player in the world, but in every league he's played he grows exponentially every season. Obviously there's a limit, but to suggest that this is all he is after his second season, and that he doesn't have potential to be one of the best in the league when he's already one of the best scorers in the league... I don't know, man. Doesn't seem logical.
send the ungrateful child to Buffalo, that'll show him.
Seriously though, this has gone on long enough, he wants to be in Calgary, he wants to get paid his worth, pay the man his money. It's not like he asked for $10.5 to settle on $8, he asked for $8 so just give him a contract for $7-7.5 and let him fill in the years.
Seriously though, this has gone on long enough, he wants to be in Calgary, he wants to get paid his worth, pay the man his money. It's not like he asked for $10.5 to settle on $8, he asked for $8 so just give him a contract for $7-7.5 and let him fill in the years.
DFF
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- Feb 28, 2002
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Qubax
Registered User
It may not happen as I outline it below, but I think there is way to give Johnny Hockey a big contract and still keep the average under what Gio makes.
Here's what I propose:
Year 1: 6.4
Year 2: 6.4
Year 3: 6.7
Year 4: 6.7
Year 5: 7.0
Year 6: 7.0
Year 7: 7.7
The first 6 years Johnny has an AAV of 6.7. This is under Giordano overall AAV. Plus by the time year 5,6,7 roll around Gio may not be here anymore.
Johnny gets the max up tick in the final year and allows himself to have 7.7 to negotiate off of on his deal going into unrestricted free agency.
In the first 2 years he makes just more then Mony
In years 3 and 4 he makes just less then Gio
In years 5 and 6 he makes more then Gio, but the AAV of years 1-6 is 6.7 mill (just under what Gio's average is)
Then the last year is a higher price tag.
I realize many may believe what I have proposed is low. But Johnny has only played 2 years and is 1 year older than Monahan. He also has no leverage.
This would be a different story if either side decided that they wanted a bridge deal afterall.
Here's what I propose:
Year 1: 6.4
Year 2: 6.4
Year 3: 6.7
Year 4: 6.7
Year 5: 7.0
Year 6: 7.0
Year 7: 7.7
The first 6 years Johnny has an AAV of 6.7. This is under Giordano overall AAV. Plus by the time year 5,6,7 roll around Gio may not be here anymore.
Johnny gets the max up tick in the final year and allows himself to have 7.7 to negotiate off of on his deal going into unrestricted free agency.
In the first 2 years he makes just more then Mony
In years 3 and 4 he makes just less then Gio
In years 5 and 6 he makes more then Gio, but the AAV of years 1-6 is 6.7 mill (just under what Gio's average is)
Then the last year is a higher price tag.
I realize many may believe what I have proposed is low. But Johnny has only played 2 years and is 1 year older than Monahan. He also has no leverage.
This would be a different story if either side decided that they wanted a bridge deal afterall.
Johnnybegood13
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- Jul 11, 2003
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Since Gaudreau ended his ELC after 2 seasons who were the players top 6 or better in scoring after their 2nd season in the last 10 years or so?.
I can think of four, might be more but Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos and Ovechkin.
Damning company for the flames camp.
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