Post-Game Talk: Game XIV - Sid the Magnificent

[AuroraBorealis]

I don’t think Graves completely sucks btw- I just don’t understand why we need to be the team that gives him the biggest role of his career, both at 5v5 and overall.

It’s bound to backfire in the postseason against the top lines of the best teams in the league IMO. Let him be a OZ/NZ focused 5D that helps the 3rd pair clean up non-58/65 minutes.

You generally don't stick a guy who was a +34 while facing top competition - and the stingiest PK'ing defenseman on a contender - on the 3rd pairing (on a worse team).
Letang is playing sound defense again after an off-year. Clearly he feels comfortable with Graves. Why experiment with new partners?

So who plays with Letang then? Shea? Ruhwedel on his off-side? Or does Sully give him Petts when the EK+Petts pairing is 17-4 in goals?

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I have grown accustomed to this team peaking in Nov - late Dec/Jan. All this winning does is cement zero changes moving forward with either the roster or staff.

It also sets up inevitable slide come Feb/March that ends with at best, backing into the playoffs.

Puus & Poulin should have been up early, instead it seems the organization is hellbent on destroying any prospect with a pulse (HI JD)... maybe as not to threaten the happiness in the room. Now injured....and both probably will be cast off by seasons end.

I truly believe that this is fraud being perpetrated by the organization. Lazy front of office not willing to make any meaningful changes and a locker-room filled with vets that have long NMC contracts.

I can't believe so many have been duped into giving this group a decade long swan song. I truly don't watch the games anymore, there's no point. They have become background music. Every win they get over the next 60 days only cements the status quo deeper, leading to a HUGE contract extension for Jake that will be too much for too long (including a shiny NMC).

What ownership and the fun bunch doesn't comprehend is the inevitable vitriol that will come once the public/media finally catches on to their ruse.

I mean even if Guentzel gets a 7 year extension nothing is going to matter after Sid/Geno retire.

We won't be good anyway and it's not holding us back from anything getter better sooner.

We will be bottom of the barrel and he's likely trade bait to a contender for his veteran playoff/cup experience.

 

[Peat]

I mean, Graves just isn’t it. We can pretend he is, but this was said from day one.

I think his contract will be fine next year and he can fit a 3rd pairing role.



Ferraro would be an interesting add for our LHD side.

Really the only one given our cap and what’s available. Forbort or Dillon seem like they would be available but same issue as Graves.

Graves' contract is brutal for a 3rd pairing role. Even with the cap going up, it'll be brutal. And we can't afford to replace him unless the team gets damn lucky because you as point out, pretty much anyone available at his cap will just bring the same problems.

 

[Gurglesons]

Graves' contract is brutal for a 3rd pairing role. Even with the cap going up, it'll be brutal. And we can't afford to replace him unless the team gets damn lucky because you as point out, pretty much anyone available at his cap will just bring the same problems.

I don’t agree. He can be a 18-20 minute guy at 4.5 mil and not be a huge problem for us.

Once Pettersson’s contract is up it’ll be an issue, but that was perception wise the issue with the Graves contract from day one the term was ludicrous.

 

[Peat]

Was referring to the postseason where he was a real drag on Hischier and Bratt.

I think he’s a net neutral for now- very worried about leaning on him in coverage, to evade a forecheck vs the Panarin line, the Hughes line, Aho line, Kucherov line, Matthews line… etc. shift after shift over the course of a series. Because that’s how Letang is being used right now.

I like his game in the neutral zone and offensive zone. But he needs to be hidden IMO.

Also my whole take on this is me eating crow— I liked the signing.

So was I. NST says that in the post-season, Hischier posted 65 xGF% with Graves and 58% away from him.

And while Panarin's line stepped on Graves' pairing in terms of the scoreboard, NST's WOWY says Graves had an xGF of 57% with Panarin and Panarin's xGF jumped to 71% when away from. Graves also had a positive xGF% with Zibanejad, who had a higher xGF away from, Aho brutalised him, but it's a 14 minute sample.

I do not think the pure stats reflect an idea that Graves is likely to be the piece who kills you in the playoffs.

 

[Peat]

I don’t agree. He can be a 18-20 minute guy at 4.5 mil and not be a huge problem for us.

Once Pettersson’s contract is up it’ll be an issue, but that was perception wise the issue with the Graves contract from day one the term was ludicrous.

Graves is currently the 70th highest paid dman. 70th by ice time currently gets you over 20 minutes a night. 18 minutes a night is 140th in ice time.

And more crucially, you cannot afford to get your brand new true 4D while having Graves on the books unless you take a major haircut elsewhere.

 

[Zbynek]

The Graves hate on here is insane man. Saved us a goal last night (while Jarry was taking a sleepy nap) which would have put CBJ up 3-1.

I think the guy has been solid and is stacking mins against top lines, pretty much exactly as advertised.

His contract is not "ludicrous" by any means.

 

[Gurglesons]

Graves is currently the 70th highest paid dman. 70th by ice time currently gets you over 20 minutes a night. 18 minutes a night is 140th in ice time.

And more crucially, you cannot afford to get your brand new true 4D while having Graves on the books unless you take a major haircut elsewhere.

I think you can potentially get a cheap vet signing. Gogo, Forbort, etc on a one year deal.
Look for a buyout candidate. Who knows.

 

[Peat]

I think you can potentially get a cheap vet signing. Gogo, Forbort, etc on a one year deal.

Didn't I just quote you about ten posts ago saying Forbort has the same issues as Graves?

 

[Icarium]

One winning streak and people start wondering what the Pens might have to face in the playoffs and who the whipping boy might be.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

So was I. NST says that in the post-season, Hischier posted 65 xGF% with Graves and 58% away from him.

Ah I see what you’re saying. I was just looking at GRAVES WITHOUT vs WITHOUT GRAVES.

Overall, gonna have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

[wgknestrick]

That's what I was saying last night, not only leads being thrown away in the 3rd, but that mentality of going out there and taking it to the other team and winning the game has been missing since the b2b.

It's been sit on your ass, try to defend and take the game into overtime the last few seasons hoping to get at least 1 point mentality. If we fail, blame the goalie...

The biggest issue facing this team in the 3rd period (collapses) is the moron benching an entire line of players in the 3rd period. Sully just about keeps the 3rd pairing and 4th line in the locker room for the 3rd and forgets how FN old his top players actually are.

Pens have a decent lineup recently and should be rolling lines with 20min OTI per player caps.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

So who plays with Letang then? Shea? Ruhwedel on his off-side? Or does Sully give him Petts when the EK+Petts pairing is 17-4 in goals?

I think that’s exactly why Graves is an issue. Because you have to play him there due to lack of alternatives. I’d think about acquiring another LD though.

 

[lokomotiv15]

Yes, the structure is about the forwards being less greedy, but the reason it works is because it forces the other team to try to dump the puck in instead of skating it in. The defense then needs to retrieve the puck and send it back the other way. If the defense is not mobile enough to retrieve the puck, the dumping team can simply get to it first. Dump and chase can work when the dumping team is fast enough, so it is necessary for the defending team to be mobile enough to get to the pucks first.

Ah this is refreshing after reading everyone talk about traps, and left wing locks, and 1-2-2’s and 2-1-2’s and few people seemingly knowing the hockey behind it.

The trap didn’t die for any reason other than when the game turned to speed and skating, teams started being able to break through it by skating through (which opens up and amplifies all sorts of trouble), and being able to retrieve it on dump-ins.

With the onus being on drafting and signing less “traditional” defence men with size and physicality and more on D that can skate, the left wing lock and hybridized trap can easily work nowadays and in no way be archaic.

 

[Gurglesons]

Didn't I just quote you about ten posts ago saying Forbort has the same issues as Graves?

Yes, but I think having two Graves versus one is a different thing.

Similar to Cole, Maatta, and Lovejoy all being here in 15-16.

 

[PensandCaps]

The Graves hate on here is insane man. Saved us a goal last night (while Jarry was taking a sleepy nap) which would have put CBJ up 3-1.

I think the guy has been solid and is stacking mins against top lines, pretty much exactly as advertised.

His contract is not "ludicrous" by any means.

His contract is fine. He's just playing poorly, it's not a hopeless cause though.

Just needs to cut back on the turnovers, and play a bit smarter.

 

[The Old Master]

Yes, the structure is about the forwards being less greedy, but the reason it works is because it forces the other team to try to dump the puck in instead of skating it in. The defense then needs to retrieve the puck and send it back the other way. If the defense is not mobile enough to retrieve the puck, the dumping team can simply get to it first. Dump and chase can work when the dumping team is fast enough, so it is necessary for the defending team to be mobile enough to get to the pucks first.

1st anything that cuts down the odd man rushes is a win.
2nd a goalie that can handle the puck helps to no end.

 

[Pancakes]

Graves and Letang have a 55% xgoals 5v5. Seems pretty fine to me.

The Devils let Graves walk because they have Luke Hughes. It had nothing to do with Graves' abilities as a hockey player. Just them having a 4th overall stud waiting in the wings.

 

[Peat]

Yes, but I think having two Graves versus one is a different thing.

Similar to Cole, Maatta, and Lovejoy all being here in 15-16.

That's fair, but the younger most-expensive one is probably sticking higher in the line up.

Graves and Letang have a 55% xgoals 5v5. Seems pretty fine to me.

The Devils let Graves walk because they have Luke Hughes. It had nothing to do with Graves' abilities as a hockey player. Just them having a 4th overall stud waiting in the wings.

Where you seeing that? NST has them at 56 actual goals, 51 xgoals.

 

[Pancakes]

That's fair, but the younger most-expensive one is probably sticking higher in the line up.



Where you seeing that? NST has them at 56 actual goals, 51 xgoals.

moneypuck

 

[Peat]

moneypuck

Ooh, interestingly big swing.

Looking at it, Moneypuck and NST agree on the chances they're generating but Moneypuck thinks they've been markedly better defensively. Moneypuck also likes Karlsson-Pettersson more as a defensive pairing. Since Moneypuck's formula tracks puck movement from the previous shot more, I'm guessing both pairings are doing a better job of removing secondary chances and rebounds... does that feel right to people?

Moneypuck also hates the third pairing. Interesting that both NST and Moneypuck would lobby heavily for POJ to be put back out there with Ruh.

 

[Pancakes]

Ooh, interestingly big swing.

Looking at it, Moneypuck and NST agree on the chances they're generating but Moneypuck thinks they've been markedly better defensively. Moneypuck also likes Karlsson-Pettersson more as a defensive pairing. Since Moneypuck's formula tracks puck movement from the previous shot more, I'm guessing both pairings are doing a better job of removing secondary chances and rebounds... does that feel right to people?

Moneypuck also hates the third pairing. Interesting that both NST and Moneypuck would lobby heavily for POJ to be put back out there with Ruh.

Yeah I am surprised at how big the disparity is between the two in terms of the xgoals they're reporting.

I think my own (non stat influenced) opinion falls somewhere in the middle of what the two sites are reporting. I think that Graves has been largely fine. Not great. Not bad. He's been average. And based on everything I saw and read about him coming to the Pens, that's pretty much exactly what he's supposed to be.

He's just a guy. He's not gonna kill you and he's not gonna carry you. And you know what, after what we were getting from Dumo last year that still represents a big upgrade.

I think if people expect Graves to be this shutdown guy the stats have never really suggested he'd be that. He's just a guy who does everything pretty solidly.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

View attachment 768623
Yes, Danforth beats him to the inside. But at this point he's still within Graves' reach, in a relatively non-threatening position, near the boards.
This goal gets scored because Letang hesitated in pressuring Danforth, allowing him to get a pass through. Letang could have also faded away to the middle and protected the house, and allowed Graves to pressure Danforth from behind with his stick.

So I don't really blame this goal on Graves that much. This was still well within the pairing's ability to negate.

Anyways, that's the net result from Graves' horrific game. 1 goal against, which was only marginally his fault. The PK went 4/4 on the night.
If that's one of his low points on the season, I'll take that all day.

Agree. That goal was pretty much on Letang with "honorable mention" to Geno and RR for not recognizing the trailers

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

I think you can potentially get a cheap vet signing. Gogo, Forbort, etc on a one year deal.
Look for a buyout candidate. Who knows.

38-year-old frequent healthy scratch Alex Goligoski?

 

[Gurglesons]

38-year-old frequent healthy scratch Alex Goligoski?

He’s on LTIR this year. Was a healthy scratch and the last few years tho.