GDT: Game 78 - Winnipeg Jets @ Nashville Predators - Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 - 7:00pm CDT - TSN - CJOB/Power 97

[WolfHouse]

I think the argument is more why is the Lowry line getting more offensive deployment then the Scheifele line. To me I'd be more inclined to give the Lowry line the heavier defensive workload. But the teams winning and playing better hockey and qe are getting other lines to step up which is going to be important for the playoffs.

The non-conspiracy explanation is just that there was a significant gap between power play and pk time in the Calgary and Minnie games... so Lowry line is your most rested line - your best offensive players all got tons of offensive time on the PP - just doesn't show up as line 1 or line 2

 

[Huffer]

I must be missing something because it seems like we should be happy with the current state of the lines?

81 and 55 were getting both out chanced and out scored (with a very large sample size). They were not good defensively, and when not outscoring their defensive deficiencies were a net negative on the teams chances to win.

27 and 55 have shown (earlier in the year and now with a small 3 game sample size), that they are better defensively, AND are out chancing their opponents. So them being able to handle more dzone starts is better for the team overall, as that line is still winning their corsi battles, and now you've got lines 2-4 that can see a slightly lesser load defensively. And isn't that what we saw in the last 3 games, that the scoring has come from all lines? Like a rising tide raises all boats kind of thing?

Basically the only thing that hasn't been great is the actual goals from 27 and 55 in the last few games (the 3 we won after a long losing streak with the old lines btw). But with the small sample size, isn't the positive corsi numbers telling us that the line is doing well and there is a better than 0 chance that the goals will come?

I don't think it's a magic fix that's going to work forever, eventually lines get stale, need changing, etc. But isn't the current setup (and with Nino added), a good thing?

It's entirely possible that 27/55/13 get torched in the playoffs. But I feel like currently the metrics (and my eye test) seems like they give us the best chance (with Connor and the second line also finding some chemistry). I feel like we've already seen enough data to feel like 81 and 55 would likely perform worse.

I feel like the current setup gives us the best chance so I'm pulling for it. If something changes and it looks like something else give us the best chance I'd be open to seeing it too.

 

[Buffdog]

Agreed, they certainly can't reach the lofty expectations of being 0-8 in actual goals as that Scheifele-Connor-X had been in the last half a dozen or so games before they were broken up.

I wasn't talking about Schief - Connor. I was talking about Schief - Ehlers. Nice strawman

My entire point all along has been that if there's no way you can construct a 1st line good enough to beat good teams' 1st lines, you need to find another way to win.

Teams even do that when they DO have thr ability to put together a top line that can dominate. Look at the Oilers and how they split up mcdavid and drai most of the time. Same in Pittsburgh

If ehlers and schief don't dominate together, they'll be split up to even out the lines. It's not because the coach doesn't know any better. It's because he does

 

[Jets 31]

This is fair, but if we have moved to an extreme power vs power deployment scheme then why is our third line still constructed as a shut down line? But maybe they move away from that with Toffoli down there and perhaps Nino joining when he's healthy.

As long as lines 1 and 2 are playing well i think that's exactly what the 3rd line will be when Neo gets back.

 

[Stumbledore]

Why not both?

But really there were some neat old cameras...everything from those bellows/folding cameras from the early 20th century to 70s/80s era Polaroids...which I guess seems pretty vintage to the kids today.

They had quite a collection of old 50s/60s/70s Playboys too. It was a different time...

A completely different time. Air and water were clean, sex was dirty, and politicians worked for the betterment of the people instead of just attacking the opposition. If you were born in the 40s, you have to think we've progressed in the last 80 years but then you turn on the news and you've gotta wonder.

 

[Inanna]

Chef does score a lot of opening goals, pretty safe choice imo.

Sure, it was so safe that I predicted he'd score first in the past dozen games.

And he didn't. No wonder I'm stuck in 7th place.

 

[Gm0ney]

A completely different time. Air and water were clean, sex was dirty, and politicians worked for the betterment of the people instead of just attacking the opposition. If you were born in the 40s, you have to think we've progressed in the last 80 years but then you turn on the news and you've gotta wonder.

If you think at some time in the golden past the air and water were clean and politicians worked for the betterment of the people you should listen to the story of Love Canal:

 

[Stumbledore]

If you think at some time in the golden past the air and water were clean and politicians worked for the betterment of the people you should listen to the story of Love Canal:

Yeah, I know all about the Love Canal and much worse stuff with asbestos in PQ.

I just wanted to quote the "air was clean and sex was dirty" line because it's from my favourite comedian of all time. There were lots of horrors back then that never made it onto the news, but the boss tells me that from a woman's point of view we've come a long way since the 1950s.

 

[JetsFan815]

I wasn't talking about Schief - Connor. I was talking about Schief - Ehlers. Nice strawman

My entire point all along has been that if there's no way you can construct a 1st line good enough to beat good teams' 1st lines, you need to find another way to win.

Teams even do that when they DO have thr ability to put together a top line that can dominate. Look at the Oilers and how they split up mcdavid and drai most of the time. Same in Pittsburgh

If ehlers and schief don't dominate together, they'll be split up to even out the lines. It's not because the coach doesn't know any better. It's because he does

Oh yeah... I wonder if we can find a top line that has been beating it's matchups consistently. Lines sorted by goal differential

Nah screw that... make up some random losing lines that are deep in the minus to play as your top line. That is infact more intelligent. I too enjoy when my team loses in goals, shots and chances night after night. But hey let a couple of guys pad their stats and stay positive while the team loses yah.

 

[Fatdrunk]

Why not both?

But really there were some neat old cameras...everything from those bellows/folding cameras from the early 20th century to 70s/80s era Polaroids...which I guess seems pretty vintage to the kids today.

They had quite a collection of old 50s/60s/70s Playboys too. It was a different time...

more hair............

 

[Buffdog]

Oh yeah... I wonder if we can find a top line that has been beating it's matchups consistently. Lines sorted by goal differential

View attachment 848809

Nah screw that... make up some random losing lines that are deep in the minus to play as your top line. That is infact more intelligent. I too enjoy when my team loses in goals, shots and chances night after night. But hey let a couple of guys pad their stats and stay positive while the team loses yah.

Those lines aren't beating anyone "consistently".
Go back to the same web page and sort by "minutes".

Most teams have played nort of 4500.

Why are all your examples such small sample sizes?

McDavid has played north of 1200 minutes at 5v5. I wonder if HFOilers has some poster who makes 98% of his posts about how their idiot coach doesn't put Hyman McDavid Draisaitl together all the time

 

[Inanna]

Yeah, I know all about the Love Canal and much worse stuff with asbestos in PQ.

I just wanted to quote the "air was clean and sex was dirty" line because it's from my favourite comedian of all time. There were lots of horrors back then that never made it onto the news, but the boss tells me that from a woman's point of view we've come a long way since the 1950s.

And your most favourite comedian of all time was......?

 

[sipowicz]

Always an exciting time playing Trashville. Lookin' forward to this game, hope the Jets give a shit unlike the last meeting in March.

Trashville, I like it!

And yeah let’s hope the Jets are dialled back in!

Guys making making $5, $6, $7, $8 million don’t seem to get too excited for playoff hockey anymore so they can get a measly $250K for winning the cup and cutting into their off season travels, yachts, cottages and second homes!

 

[scelaton]

Oh yeah... I wonder if we can find a top line that has been beating it's matchups consistently. Lines sorted by goal differential

View attachment 848809

What?? Ehlers-Names-Perfetti top-10 in goal differential--that's impossible! Perfetti is too slow and small to even make the lineup regularly. And he never smiles. Goddamn stats--what does goal differential even have to do with playing hockey....oh.....wait...

 

[sipowicz]

What?? Ehlers-Names-Perfetti top-10 in goal differential--that's impossible! Perfetti is too slow and small to even make the lineup regularly. And he never smiles. Goddamn stats--what does goal differential even have to do with playing hockey....oh.....wait...

Perfetti had 2 good games out of his last 25-30, let’s not cast his bronze statue yet hey!

 

[Atoyot]

This is getting out of hand already, as long as we win and we aren't playing the hell out of 2 lines who cares ? Garret has to be one of these 2 guys for sure.....

Reminder that Garret was employed by the Washington Capitals when they won the cup.

Oh yeah... I wonder if we can find a top line that has been beating it's matchups consistently. Lines sorted by goal differential

View attachment 848809

Nah screw that... make up some random losing lines that are deep in the minus to play as your top line. That is infact more intelligent. I too enjoy when my team loses in goals, shots and chances night after night. But hey let a couple of guys pad their stats and stay positive while the team loses yah.

Neiderreiter-Scheif-Vilardi/Toffoli
Connor-Monahan-Vilardi/Toffoli
Ehlers-Names-Perfetti
Barron-Lowry-Iafallo/Appleton

Sigh. I just wish we'd try 3 scoring lines for a bit to see how it looks.

 

[JetsFan815]

McDavid has played north of 1200 minutes at 5v5. I wonder if HFOilers has some poster who makes 98% of his posts about how their idiot coach doesn't put Hyman McDavid Draisaitl together all the time

I think it is best if you put me on ignore and move on. I am not asking you to reply to my posts and I stopped replying to you for a while because 90% of the time you seem to turn any discussion from discussing actual pros and cons of hockey related things to discussing other posters, their posting history, their motivations (real or imagined), and other crap like their their positivity-negativity ratio. Anyways I am not feeding into this, hope you enjoy the game.

 

[DRW204]

What?? Ehlers-Names-Perfetti top-10 in goal differential--that's impossible! Perfetti is too slow and small to even make the lineup regularly. And he never smiles. Goddamn stats--what does goal differential even have to do with playing hockey....oh.....wait...

That line was from Oct-November when he was playing way better.

 

[John Agar]

I'm a dog person...

Being a country boy... Cats have their uses... I've had a couple good cats in my lifetime...

Unfortunately... when they think they are God's gift... bad things happen...

Jets... your mission today is to send a message... be the big dogs and send the cats up the tree...

Go Jets Go !!!

....

 

[bumblebeeman]

Oh yeah... I wonder if we can find a top line that has been beating it's matchups consistently. Lines sorted by goal differential

View attachment 848809

Nah screw that... make up some random losing lines that are deep in the minus to play as your top line. That is infact more intelligent. I too enjoy when my team loses in goals, shots and chances night after night. But hey let a couple of guys pad their stats and stay positive while the team loses yah.

How many of those lines are even still together lol. Number 1 and 5 are, and are both 3rd lines. The McDavid one is right now I think too. Otherwise naw. I guess all those coaches are idiots

 

[Buffdog]

I think it is best if you put me on ignore and move on. I am not asking you to reply to my posts and I stopped replying to you for a while because 90% of the time you seem to turn any discussion from discussing actual pros and cons of hockey related things to discussing other posters, their posting history, their motivations (real or imagined), and other crap like their their positivity-negativity ratio. Anyways I am not feeding into this, hope you enjoy the game.

You're the guy who says "this is a discussion forum, we should discuss things".

So I do, but then you ignore every point we make. What kind of "discussion" is that? Or do you only like discussing things with people who agree with you? The world seems to be moving in that direction, unfortunately

For example, I asked you about the LA game after you either forgot to include it in the point you were trying to make, or intentionally excluded it from the sample that you used to prop up the ESV line. You never answered, and posted a graph with a bunch of lines with small sample sizes that aren't used together regularly instead.

I respect your commitment to your position, but I think everyone here would respect it more if you actually discussed it in good faith instead of blanket dismissals or outright ignoring any counterpoint

 

[Gm0ney]

Those lines aren't beating anyone "consistently".
Go back to the same web page and sort by "minutes".

Most teams have played nort of 4500.

Why are all your examples such small sample sizes?

McDavid has played north of 1200 minutes at 5v5. I wonder if HFOilers has some poster who makes 98% of his posts about how their idiot coach doesn't put Hyman McDavid Draisaitl together all the time

The TOI cutoff for the Top 104 lines is 153 minutes at 5v5.

Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi are:
5th in GF% (95th percentile)
6th in GF/60 (94th percentile)
13th in GA/60 (87th percentile)
9th in xGF/60 (91st percentile)
21st in xGF% (80th percentile)

Elite line. Play them more.

Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi:
86th in GF%
31st in GF/60
102nd in GA/60
99th in xGF/60
103rd in xGF%

If Hyman-McD-Drai were producing like ESV, but when you replaced Draisaitl with RNH or Kane or whatever their numbers looked like CSV then you can bet your bottom dollar some HFOilers poster would be making 98% of their posts about how their idiot coach needs to put that line back together. And they'd be right.

 

[Stumbledore]

And your most favourite comedian of all time was......?

George Carlin. Brilliant man, died to soon.

Wasn't trying to be mysterious, sometimes left hand gives out before I'm done saying all I ment to say.

 

[scelaton]

That line was from Oct-November when he was playing way better.

Yeah, I know, I was mostly having a little fun. But 33 games is not a meaningless sample size, and I also found it telling--since size has re-entered the discussion in other threads-- that 3 of our littlest players were so effective and did not (to my recollection) miss any games due to injury.

 

[Buffdog]

The TOI cutoff for the Top 104 lines is 153 minutes at 5v5.

Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi are:
5th in GF% (95th percentile)
6th in GF/60 (94th percentile)
13th in GA/60 (87th percentile)
9th in xGF/60 (91st percentile)
21st in xGF% (80th percentile)

Elite line. Play them more.

Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi:
86th in GF%
31st in GF/60
102nd in GA/60
99th in xGF/60
103rd in xGF%

If Hyman-McD-Drai were producing like ESV, but when you replaced Draisaitl with RNH or Kane or whatever their numbers looked like CSV then you can bet your bottom dollar some HFOilers poster would be making 98% of their posts about how their idiot coach needs to put that line back together. And they'd be right.

OR teams understand that you can't win with one line and spread their top forwards out. Oilers do it. Pens did it. Blackhawks did it.

It doesn't matter how much your top line produces when nobody else in the line up does. OR if you run into a team with a better top line than yours

We managed to shut McDrai down in the bubble year FFS

ESV sucked vs LA. Let's see how they do the next few games and what kind of results the team gets