GDT: Game 78 - Winnipeg Jets @ Nashville Predators - Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 - 7:00pm CDT - TSN - CJOB/Power 97

[surixon]

So... just to be clear...

People wanted Connor off schiefs line and replaced by Ehlers because they'd be better defensively. Then Bones takes that line and deploys them in defensive zone starts, which is where you'd want to deploy a line that's supposed to be good defensively. Weird

Everyone wanted a line that could match up with the other team's best lines and win. Guess where other teams deploy their top line? In the O zone.

Sometimes I wonder whether or not people look at anything but spreadsheets

I think the argument is more why is the Lowry line getting more offensive deployment then the Scheifele line. To me I'd be more inclined to give the Lowry line the heavier defensive workload. But the teams winning and playing better hockey and qe are getting other lines to step up which is going to be important for the playoffs.

 

[Gm0ney]

Too funny … when ESV scores the I told you crowd comes out when they don’t it’s a conspiracy .
Just a thought but maybe the opposing teams are smart enough to play a certain way against a top line. Thats why you need more than one scoring line but I guess it screws up the analytics narrative.
Seriously I don’t care who scores for the jets just as long as they score more goals than they let in.

Small samples and all, but this is not how Bones usually runs his lines. L1 generally gets a big OZ push and Lowry's line gets a lot of the DZ faceoffs.

Last 3 games:
Lowry+Appleton 15 OZ faceoffs (40.5% of OZ faceoffs)
Monahan+Perfetti 9 OZ faceoffs (24.3%)
Namestnikov+Barron 7 OZ faceoffs (18.9%)
Scheifele+Ehlers 6 OZ faceoffs (16.2%)

All season:
Scheifele+Connor 336 OZ (38.4% of OZ faceoffs)
Ehlers+Not Scheifele 213 OZ (24.3%)
Lowry+Appleton 195 OZ (22.3%)
Barron+Not Lowry 131 OZ (15.0%)

It's unusual when your top line usually gets 60:40 OZ starts over your shutdown line and suddenly it's 70:30 OZ starts for the shutdown line vs the top line? And this just happens to coincide with Ehlers being on the top line? Which Bones, through words and actions, does not prefer for some reason? And then Bones singles out the top line for not producing?

 

[Jets 31]

Is Bones sandbagging the ESV top line? It kinda looks like it...

This is getting out of hand already, as long as we win and we aren't playing the hell out of 2 lines who cares ? Garret has to be one of these 2 guys for sure.....

 

[Gm0ney]

Not disputing any of that but Scheif is still not skating like he can... to me, it seems like he's knicked

Ehlers is the one gaining zone entry most of the time and his 'chaos' opens up lanes for Scheif and Vilardi who are great at finding sweet spots - they are just not quite connecting on passes right now

Im just saying it makes a lot more sense that Bones is playing Scheif without his groin being 100% over actively sabotaging his top line haha

Maybe...but I don't really get why you'd change the deployment to DZ starts. And Scheifele+Connor got 163 OZ starts between Scheifele's return from injury in early February until 3 games ago vs. Lowry+Appleton's 83 OZ starts over that period.

It seems that Bones doesn't like Ehlers+Scheif together for some reason. Is he putting his finger on the scale so he has an excuse to go back to Connor+Scheif at the first reasonable opportunity? Like he's criticizing ESV for not producing enough in the past 3 games but they're getting chances and carrying the play, despite getting the fewest zone starts of any line...

 

[Jets 31]

Small samples and all, but this is not how Bones usually runs his lines. L1 generally gets a big OZ push and Lowry's line gets a lot of the DZ faceoffs.

Last 3 games:
Lowry+Appleton 15 OZ faceoffs (40.5% of OZ faceoffs)
Monahan+Perfetti 9 OZ faceoffs (24.3%)
Namestnikov+Barron 7 OZ faceoffs (18.9%)
Scheifele+Ehlers 6 OZ faceoffs (16.2%)

All season:
Scheifele+Connor 336 OZ (38.4% of OZ faceoffs)
Ehlers+Not Scheifele 213 OZ (24.3%)
Lowry+Appleton 195 OZ (22.3%)
Barron+Not Lowry 131 OZ (15.0%)

It's unusual when your top line usually gets 60:40 OZ starts over your shutdown line and suddenly it's 70:30 OZ starts for the shutdown line vs the top line? And this just happens to coincide with Ehlers being on the top line? Which Bones, through words and actions, does not prefer for some reason? And then Bones singles out the top line for not producing?

We have also been on the road where the other team has last change so maybe, just maybe Bowness is trying not to have Scheifele's line out against the other teams 1st line. No way it's because Bowness hates Ehlers .

 

[surixon]

We have also been on the road where the other team has last change so maybe, just maybe Bowness is trying not to have Scheifele's line out against the other teams 1st line. No way it's because Bowness hates Ehlers .

Only 1 of the 3 games have been on the road since the line swap.

 

[Gm0ney]

We have also been on the road where the other team has last change so maybe, just maybe Bowness is trying not to have Scheifele's line out against the other teams 1st line. No way it's because Bowness hates Ehlers .

I think he hates being asked "WTF don't you have Ehlers on the top line?" and he's determined to show everyone...

 

[Buffdog]

It seems that Bones doesn't like Ehlers+Scheif together for some reason. Is he putting his finger on the scale so he has an excuse to go back to Connor+Scheif at the first reasonable opportunity? Like he's criticizing ESV for not producing enough in the past 3 games but they're getting chances and carrying the play, despite getting the fewest zone starts of any line...

 

[Inanna]

Not disputing any of that but Scheif is still not skating like he can... to me, it seems like he's knicked

I think he was held back by my repeated choice for him to score the opening goal. Now that I have moved my favour to another Jet, Scheifele is free to score as often and as early as he wishes.

But if he does open the scoring, I won't be bitter.

No way. Not me,

Not bitter at all...

 

[SLAYER]

I think he was held back by my repeated choice for him to score the opening goal. Now that I have moved my favour to another Jet, Scheifele is free to score as often and as early as he wishes.

But if he does open the scoring, I won't be bitter.

No way. Not me,

Not bitter at all...

Chef does score a lot of opening goals, pretty safe choice imo.

 

[Gm0ney]

View attachment 848702

It must have been so boring around here when I was down in Atlanta...

BTW, this was the only sign of the Thrashers I saw while there: a Ray Ferraro bobblehead at a weird kitsch/antique place that mainly dealt in old cameras and vintage copies of Playboy.

 

[Jets 31]

Only 1 of the 3 games have been on the road since the line swap.

That 1 game would still affect the numbers especially when you are only using 3 games.

 

[Jets 31]

It must have been so boring around here when I was down in Atlanta...

BTW, this was the only sign of the Thrashers I saw while there: a Ray Ferraro bobblehead at a weird kitsch/antique place that mainly dealt in old cameras and vintage copies of Playboy.
View attachment 848708

And which of the 2 things were you looking for, cameras or Playboys ?

 

[surixon]

That 1 game would still affect the numbers especially when you are only using 3 games.

It does but not on the way you'd think. They got all but 1 of their offensive zone starts in the Wild game. Bones with last change at home pushed them completely into the dzone.

 

[Buffdog]

It does but not on the way you'd think. They got all but 1 of their offensive zone starts in the Wild game. Bones with last change at home pushed them completely into the dzone.

Exactly. At home we have last change. The other teams start their top line in the o zone, so Bones sends schiefs line out against then

Everyone here wanted a line that can go best vs best. He gave it to you and that's the way it will look at home

If they're as dominant as everyone here predicted, then they should be generating more chances vs the other teams top lines. They didn't and bones called them out

This is basically exactly what everyone asked for, and exactly what I predicted would happen when they got it

 

[Gm0ney]

And which of the 2 things were you looking for, cameras or Playboys ?

Why not both?

But really there were some neat old cameras...everything from those bellows/folding cameras from the early 20th century to 70s/80s era Polaroids...which I guess seems pretty vintage to the kids today.

They had quite a collection of old 50s/60s/70s Playboys too. It was a different time...

 

[surixon]

Exactly. At home we have last change. The other teams start their top line in the o zone, so Bones sends schiefs line out against then

Everyone here wanted a line that can go best vs best. He gave it to you and that's the way it will look at home

If they're as dominant as everyone here predicted, then they should be generating more chances vs the other teams top lines. They didn't and bones called them out

This is basically exactly what everyone asked for, and exactly what I predicted would happen when they got it

This is fair, but if we have moved to an extreme power vs power deployment scheme then why is our third line still constructed as a shut down line? But maybe they move away from that with Toffoli down there and perhaps Nino joining when he's healthy.

 

[JetsFan815]

If they're as dominant as everyone here predicted, then they should be generating more chances vs the other teams top lines. They didn't and bones called them out

Based on what?

Against the Wild:

Shots: 9 For. 5 Against

Scoring Chances: 5 For. 4 Against

Goals: 0 For, 0 Against

Seems pretty good numbers to me matching up against Kaprizov

 

[JetsFan815]

Is Bones sandbagging the ESV top line? It kinda looks like it...

I don't agree with this nor think there is any "sabotage" going on.

Most of the skew in zone starts is coming from LA game where Lowry line got 10 offensive zone faceoffs compared to 0 for the Scheifele (in the Wild game the Scheifele line had the most offensive zone faceoffs although that game didn't have many faceoffs).

The lopsided-ness in the LA game is down to the matchups- Lowry line was being hard matched against the Kopitar line (their "top" line) whereas Scheifele saw PLD line as his hard match. My guess is that the LA coach was deploying Kopitar in a defensive role like they usually do and giving him a lion's share of defensive zone faceoffs and doing so meant that Lowry line ended up being pulled into the more offensive zone starts.

Whereas PLD was clearly being deployed in an offensive role pulling the 55 line into the d-zone (only 1 defensive zone faceoff for PLD).

 

[KingBogo]

So... just to be clear...

People wanted Connor off schiefs line and replaced by Ehlers because they'd be better defensively. Then Bones takes that line and deploys them in defensive zone starts, which is where you'd want to deploy a line that's supposed to be good defensively. Weird

Everyone wanted a line that could match up with the other team's best lines and win. Guess where other teams deploy their top line? In the O zone.

Sometimes I wonder whether or not people look at anything but spreadsheets

Yeah I took it as a positive that 27-55-13 were getting tilted to the D Zone. Ideally you want your top line to take on difficult matchups and still produce. It looks to me like Bones is trying to force that line to push through difficult usage.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't agree with this nor think there is any "sabotage" going on.

Most of the skew in zone starts is coming from LA game where Lowry line got 10 offensive zone faceoffs compared to 0 for the Scheifele (in the Wild game the Scheifele line had the most offensive zone faceoffs although that game didn't have many faceoffs).

The lopsided-ness in the LA game is down to the matchups- Lowry line was being hard matched against the Kopitar line (their "top" line) whereas Scheifele saw PLD line as his hard match. My guess is that the LA coach was deploying Kopitar in a defensive role like they usually do and giving him a lion's share of defensive zone faceoffs and doing so meant that Lowry line ended up being pulled into the more offensive zone starts.

Whereas PLD was clearly being deployed in an offensive role pulling the 55 line into the d-zone (only 1 defensive zone faceoff for PLD).

Well then why is Bones criticizing the line that had 6 offensive zone faceoffs - and still dominated the chance battle - for not getting enough chances? They'd get more chances if they had more offensive zone starts. And they were still getting lots of chances. What's he talking about?

 

[Royale With Cheese]

It must have been so boring around here when I was down in Atlanta...

BTW, this was the only sign of the Thrashers I saw while there: a Ray Ferraro bobblehead at a weird kitsch/antique place that mainly dealt in old cameras and vintage copies of Playboy.
View attachment 848708

That's supposed to be Ray Ferraro!?

 

[Buffdog]

Based on what?

Against the Wild:

Shots: 9 For. 5 Against

Scoring Chances: 5 For. 4 Against

Goals: 0 For, 0 Against

Seems pretty good numbers to me matching up against Kaprizov

That's vs a non-playoff team. Let's see what happens vs the Mackinnon line and vs the Stars. They also had a good games vs the non-playoff Flames and Sens.

But... how did they do vs the Kings (the only playoff team we've played since they were re-united)? You left that one out for some reason

Again, exactly as I predicted

 

[LowLefty]

I think the argument is more why is the Lowry line getting more offensive deployment then the Scheifele line. To me I'd be more inclined to give the Lowry line the heavier defensive workload. But the teams winning and playing better hockey and qe are getting other lines to step up which is going to be important for the playoffs.

Yeah - it does seem a bit strange -
I'd almost think Bones is doing a little less line management based on zone faceoffs now that he has more defensively capable top lines.
Really small sample so it's hard to draw too many conclusions - but it is a lot easier with line flow when you're not concerned about faceoff mismatches.

EDIT: reading a few more posts (@JetsFan815), I'd think my point is less impactful -

 

[JetsFan815]

That's vs a non-playoff team. Let's see what happens vs the Mackinnon line and vs the Stars. They also had a good games vs the non-playoff Flames and Sens.

But... how did they do vs the Kings (the only playoff team we've played since they were re-united)? You left that one out for some reason

Again, exactly as I predicted

Agreed, they certainly can't reach the lofty expectations of being 0-8 in actual goals as that Scheifele-Connor-X had been in the last half a dozen or so games before they were broken up.